Top Stories
Reuters: "Major powers believe sanctions and setbacks to Iran's nuclear programme may have strengthened their hand before talks with a still-defiant Tehran, but chances of real progress at this week's meeting in Istanbul look slim. Tougher punitive measures over the last year and possible sabotage aimed at slowing Iran's nuclear drive could help buy more time for diplomacy and reduce the risk of the long-running row escalating into a military conflict, at least for now. But the Islamic Republic's hardline leaders, who use the nuclear dispute to rally nationalist support at home and distract from the major oil producer's economic problems, are showing no sign Western pressure will make them change course. 'We will not retreat one iota from our nuclear rights ... but we are ready for cooperation based upon justice and respect,' President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in a speech. Even if Iran may be experiencing technical difficulties, diplomats and experts stress that it is still amassing enriched uranium, material which can be used to make bombs if refined further, and has repeatedly refused to halt such activity. As a result, expectations are low ahead of a second round of negotiations between Iran and six world powers in the Turkish city on January 21-22." http://bit.ly/eCorCh
FP: "Just before Chinese President Hu Jintao's arrival to Washington, two leading senators accused China of violating sanctions against Iran and sent a warning to President Barack Obama that Congress will go after Chinese companies if the abuses don't stop. 'We appreciate China's decision to support U.N. Security Council Resolution 1929, as well as China's backing of prior U.N. sanctions against Iran. However, we believe that China's record on sanctions enforcement and nonproliferation is inadequate and disappointing,' Sens. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) and Mark Kirk (R-IL) wrote to President Obama on Jan. 14 in a previously unreported letter. The senators cited numerous reports that China is supplying crucial materials to aid Iran's nuclear and missile programs and alleged that Beijing continues to give monetary and material support to Iran's energy sectors, including the delivery of refined petroleum products, which could provoke penalties under U.S. laws passed by Congress, including the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions Accountability and Divestment Act that Obama signed into law in July, 2010. The senators specifically named the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (SINOPEC) as firms that could come under U.S. penalties." http://bit.ly/hH2YU8
AP: "Iran's U.N. envoy said Tuesday the most important thing that world powers can do at upcoming talks in Istanbul is recognize his country as major player with 'nuclear capability' that is ready to cooperate on major issues including nonproliferation. Ambassador Mohammad Khazaee warned Iran will never respond to sanctions, threats or political or economic pressure - and will 'never negotiate on our inalienable right to use nuclear energy for ... peaceful purposes.' 'It doesn't mean that Iranians are looking for confrontation,' he said. 'But at the same time ... it's not going to work to put a knife in the neck of somebody, or your sword, and at the same time asking him to negotiate with you.' Khazaee spoke ahead of new talks on Jan. 21-22 with the U.S., Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China." http://wapo.st/g3ydIA
Nuclear Program & Sanctions
AFP: "Google has made mapping, photo-sharing, and Web browsing software available for the first time to people in Iran but blocked access by government computers there. Google worked with US officials on the nuances of making Earth, Picasa and Chrome programs available for download in Iran in a way that comports with export restrictions eased early last year. 'For the first time, we are making Google Earth, Picasa and Chrome available for download in Iran,' Google export compliance programs manager Neil Martin said in a blog post. 'As a condition of our export licenses from the Treasury Department, we will continue to block IP addresses associated with the Iranian government.' Martin recounted how Iranian officials deported foreign journalists, disrupted mobile phone connections, and shut down media outlets to suppress protests of the controversial presidential election results in June of 2009." http://bit.ly/dQt1Z8
WT: "Iran has deployed security teams to protect its nuclear scientists from assassinations, the Islamic republic's interior minister announced Tuesday. 'Given the emphases laid by the president on guarding and protecting our country's scientists, a special structure has been developed for protecting the scientists and it has started its operation,' said Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar, according to the semi-official Fars News Agency. The precautions are being taken weeks after a bomb plot that targeted two top Iranian nuclear scientists, widely assumed to have been the work of Israeli or other Western intelligence agencies. Iran's intelligence minister said this month that 10 people had been arrested on suspicion of being behind an Israeli plot that killed another nuclear scientist last January." http://bit.ly/fOHNvo
AFP: "Hong Kong said Wednesday it was 'striving' to pass legislation to comply with UN sanctions against Iran, after 20 shipping firms in the city were accused of being linked to Tehran's weapons buildup. Last week, the US Treasury Department slapped sanctions on 24 shipping companies, including four in Britain's Isle of Man, accused of being fronts for Iranian businesses involved in Iran's missile programmes. The firms are allegedly affiliated with the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), which has been slapped with international sanctions. Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous Chinese territory, is awaiting Beijing's final approval to usher in the changes, but China has said it would support the sanctions passed by the UN Security Council in June last year. At present, Hong Kong cannot seize assets belonging to the IRISL-linked shipping companies without first obtaining a court order. 'We are preparing the necessary subsidiary legislation to... give effect to new sanctions against Iran,' Hong Kong's government said in a statement Wednesday, adding it was 'striving to complete the work as soon as possible.'" http://bit.ly/fLC9gz
AFP: "Iran's foreign minister arrived in Senegal Tuesday, officials said, amid a diplomatic storm between the one-time allies over a huge cache of weapons from Iran that was intercepted in Nigeria. Acting Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was due to meet Senegal President Abdoulaye Wade during the two-day trip, an official told AFP. The Iranian ISNA news agency said Monday that the talks would focus on bilateral and international relations. Senegal and Iran enjoyed strong diplomatic ties until 13 containers loaded with arms and munitions were found in October aboard a ship in Nigeria. Senegal recalled its ambassador to Tehran mid-December after Iran failed to provide a 'satisfactory' explanation for the weapons, which were sent from Iran and destined for Gambia. Because of its controversial nuclear programme, Iran is forbidden from selling arms, under United Nations sanctions." http://bit.ly/ieGrIp
Reuters: "India may finalise routing of funds as payment towards Iran oil imports in the next few days, Oil Secretary S. Sundareshan said on Wednesday. The two nations have so far not been able to find a solution on how New Delhi should pay for oil imports from Iran after India's central bank said last month that payments to the Middle Eastern nation could no longer be settled using a long-standing clearing house system run by regional central banks." http://reut.rs/eC4Z1B
Bloomberg: "Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps successfully test-fired a surface-to-air missile near its Khandab nuclear site, the official Islamic Republic News Agency said today. The test 'was aimed at assessing the level of readiness of missiles stationed in the vicinity of the nation's sensitive and vital sites,' Abolfazl Farmahini, an operations commander at the Khatamal-Anbiya air base, was cited as saying by IRNA, which didn't provide details of the nuclear facility or the missile." http://bit.ly/dPHmiG
Human Rights
CNN: "Iranian authorities hanged 10 convicted drug smugglers early Wednesday morning, according to state media. The 10 men were executed at a prison in the city of Karaj, west of the capital Tehran, according to IRIB news agency. They were charged with smuggling, storing, and selling narcotics, charges that have lead to the majority of the reported executions in Iran. The latest executions brings the total number to 57, since the beginning of 2011, according to a human rights group. The New York-based group, the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, says the Iranian regime has been on an 'execution binge', hanging on average one person every eight hours." http://bit.ly/eRNj22
Foreign Affairs
LAT: "For the last five weeks, a traffic jam of fuel tankers, now swelled to about 2,500 vehicles, has been backed up at the Iranian-Afghan frontier, with only a fraction of the usual number allowed to pass. The resulting shortages were initially felt most keenly in the agricultural south and west. But in recent weeks, the effects have spread to the crowded, car-choked capital, Kabul, with higher pump prices, longer lines and ever-shortening tempers... In the last month, the cost of a gallon of gasoline has risen by about 20%, to $4.35 in the capital, with higher prices in the provinces. As often happens, some of the resentment is aimed at a highly visible target: the 150,000-member North Atlantic Treaty Organization force. Iranian officials have blamed the chokehold on 'technical reasons' but also have suggested that at least some fuel ends up in the hands of the Western military. NATO's International Security Assistance Force, which is composed largely of U.S. troops, has stated repeatedly that its supply routes do not run through Iran." http://lat.ms/frGgCV
Ottawa Citizen: "Threatening e-mails and phone calls resulted in the cancellation Tuesday evening of a film that exposes Iran's efforts to build nuclear weapons and promote terrorism. The threats followed a formal complaint last weekend from the Iranian Embassy, seeking to stop the showing of the film Iranium at Library and Archives Canada. Late Tuesday afternoon, police cars and fire trucks surrounded the Wellington-Street building after staff reported two suspicious letters had been dropped off by a man at about 4 p.m. The man hurried away before anyone could question him and the letters had no return address. An hour later, there was a series of phone calls threatening violent protests. By 6 p.m., long after most of the staff had left, there were no protesters and the letters were found to be harmless. Nonetheless, the situation forced Fred Litwin, president of the Free Thinking Film Society, to accept the cancellation of the film's showing. Litwin said he was told of the intended cancellation on Monday, and, when he later asked why, was told it was because of a complaint from the Iranian Embassy." http://bit.ly/elj5iO
FOX News: "Apparent renegade pro-Iranian hackers have targeted beach communities in Florida. The homepages for the small town of Hillsboro Beach and the community of North Miami have been targeted by hackers in recent days. The website for Hilllsboro Beach still showed the effects of the security breach Tuesday, prominently displaying a picture of Iran, the flag of the country, and the mysterious words 'MCSM Iran Hacking.' Town officials were unclear whether the hacks were the work of a local prankster or if the Iranian government has it in for them. According to town clerk Jean-Marie Mark, the image showed up a week ago on the site. Web administrators were able to remove it by Friday, but the image resurfaced over the weekend, reported the Florida Sun Sentinel." http://fxn.ws/f6xuRi
Opinion & Analysis
David Albright and Andrea Stricker in USIP: "Iran's nuclear program is suffering mounting setbacks, which in turn will provide more time for diplomacy and reduce the imminence of military strikes. The problems fall into three broad categories:
· increased difficulty of obtaining essential parts on the international market,
· trouble operating large numbers of centrifuges,
· and apparent covert actions by foreign intelligence agencies.
Foreign intelligence agencies now appear to be targeting Iran's nuclear activities with a variety of methods. They include:
· cyber attacks,
· sabotaging key equipment Iran seeks abroad,
· infiltration and disruption of Iran's smuggling networks,
· and the assassination of nuclear experts.
There are no first-hand accounts, but the biggest problems appear to have been caused by the Stuxnet malware, which started to impact the gas centrifuges at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant in 2009. Iran has made some progress. It has increased its monthly production of low enriched uranium. By late 2010, it had also bolstered from 4,000 to 5,000 the number of IR-1 centrifuges used to enrich uranium, surprising most foreign analysts. But Iran's problems with the IR-1 centrifuges may be more telling. Production of enriched uranium at the Natanz enrichment facility is significantly lower than expected by now. Only about 60 percent of the installed centrifuges are actually enriching uranium. And operations of the centrifuges are often disrupted. The most noticeable was a still-unexplained and rare halt to all enrichment in mid-November 2010 at Natanz, which was confirmed by the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency." http://bit.ly/gtscKg
Meir Javedanfar in The Guardian: "Iran and the P5+1 countries (United States, Britain, France, China and Russia and Germany) will meet on 20 January for another round of talks over Iran's nuclear programme. Many will be wondering whether the talks will produce a breakthrough but the chances of that happening are low. The reason is simple: in the short term, the rewards of compromise by either side are less than the cost. This is especially true when it comes to Iran. Yes, the Stuxnet worm did cause damage. However, the 1,000 centrifuges that had to be removed because of it were not sufficient to stop Iran's nuclear programme in its tracks. The same goes for the assassination and attempted assassination of two Iranian nuclear scientists last November. So why should Ali Khamenei stop? Why should he give up one of the biggest leverages he has in Iran's relations with the west? Khamenei has other things to focus on, such as his relations with the clergy in Qom... Iran can wait. When it comes to the waiting game, the west has a bigger staying power, until such time that Iran gets close to making a bomb. According to the latest estimate from Meir Dagan, former head of the Mossad, that will be 'by the middle of the decade, maybe earlier - by 2014.'" http://bit.ly/fex1ap
Joe Cirincione in CNN: "The strategic calculus for dealing with Iran's nuclear program has shifted dramatically in the past month. First, came news that the Stuxnet computer worm had apparently wrecked more than one fifth of the centrifuges Iran has used over the past five years to enrich uranium. Then came new estimates from leading Israeli authorities that Iran is three to five years away from having a nuclear weapon, a sharp shift from earlier assessments. On Sunday, The New York Times reported the U.S. and Israel may be behind the computer virus, confirming what many had suspected. The nuclear clock is still ticking in Iran. Its scientists and engineers are smart and dedicated, and the regime seems determined to acquire nuclear technology that can be used to make fuel for reactors or the cores of nuclear weapons. But the clock has slowed. Time is now on the side of efforts to negotiate an end to Iran's program. Credit must be given to the Obama administration. The president's critics have blasted his Iran strategy, portraying him as weak and naive. Some have been campaigning for military strikes as the only solution to a threat they have claimed was urgent and otherwise unstoppable... Now is the time to emphasize the engagement component of the strategy. A new report from the Henry L. Stimson Center and the U.S. Institute of Peace concludes that the administration 'must rebalance' its approach." http://bit.ly/fOKDEW
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