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Stories
NYT: "Intelligence
officials from several countries say Iran in recent weeks has virtually
completed an underground nuclear enrichment plant, racing ahead despite
international pressure and heavy economic sanctions in what experts say
may be an effort to give it leverage in any negotiations with the United
States and its allies. The installation of the last of nearly 3,000
centrifuges at a site called Fordo, deep under a mountain inside a
military base near the holy city of Qum, puts Iran closer to being able to
build a nuclear weapon, or come up to the edge, if its leaders ultimately
decide to proceed... While the plant is not yet fully running - fewer
than half of all its centrifuges are spinning out enriched uranium - Iran
could have it doing so within months, officials say. Fordo is designed to
make 'medium enriched' fuel that is relatively close to bomb grade, and
American officials worry that, in a relatively short amount of time, that
fuel could be converted to a type suitable for weapons." http://t.uani.com/RZeQR1
Reuters:
"The world's spare oil production capacity outside of Iran rose in
last two months as gasoline demand waned in the United States and oil use
for power generation fell in the Middle East, the U.S. government said in
a bimonthly report. In September and October, spare oil production
capacity was 2 million barrels per day, the EIA said, up from 1.8 million
bpd in the previous two months, said the report, which is required by
last year's Iran sanctions law. The slightly larger cushion gives room
for the Obama administration to continue pressuring Tehran over its
disputed nuclear program through sanctions that target Iran's oil
revenues. The sanctions require global importers to buy less Iranian
crude or risk being cut off from the U.S. financial system. Tehran has
said its nuclear program is strictly for civilian purposes." http://t.uani.com/VKO3yU
AFP:
"International satellite services provider Intelsat has blocked
Iran's official broadcast channels in Europe, a company spokesman said
Thursday. But it would not confirm or deny an Iranian report that it did
so at the order of the US government. 'Intelsat confirms that we took
IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) channels off the satellite,'
Alexander Horwitz, a spokesman for the Washington-based company, told
AFP... Horwitz declined to identify the IRIB channels that were affected
by Intelsat's move. According to Press TV, Intelsat was ordered to take
the action by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the
economic and trade sanctions arm of the US Treasury Department." http://t.uani.com/XqkLn3
Nuclear
Program
Reuters: "Iran
appears to have nearly finished installing centrifuges at its underground
nuclear plant, Western diplomats say, potentially boosting its capacity
to make weapons-grade uranium if it chose to do so. Iran only disclosed
the existence of the Fordow plant, built inside a mountain to shield it
from air strikes, in 2009 after learning that Western spy services had
detected it. The United States and its allies are particularly worried
about Fordow because Iran is refining uranium there to a fissile concentration
of 20 percent, which Iran says it needs for a medical reactor. The
diplomats said they had heard of indications that Iran had put in place
the last 640 or so uranium centrifuges of a planned total of some 2,800
at the site, but had not started running them yet... Iran may be able to
accumulate up to four 'significant quantities' of weapons-grade uranium -
each sufficient for one bomb - in as little as nine months from now,
nuclear experts Olli Heinonen of Harvard University's Belfer Center and
Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute said in a paper. 'This
timetable will shrink as more 20 percent enriched uranium is produced, at
which point potential breakout time will be measured in weeks rather than
months,' they said." http://t.uani.com/XqllkK
NYT:
"Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs sent an e-mail on Monday to
its embassies and consulates around the world, sharing Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu's declaration that he had no knowledge about the
possibility of bilateral talks between the United States and Iran, and
advising others not to speak publicly about the issue. 'We remind that
the P.M. asked that all requests for interviews in the matter require his
approval,' read the brief e-mail, its last three words underlined for
emphasis. The e-mail was part of a broader effort, including instructions
to all government employees who deal with the news media and orders by
the prime minister himself to his cabinet that everyone should remain
silent on the matter." http://t.uani.com/Tjzlvj
AFP:
"The EU, leading diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute over
Iran's nuclear programme, has talked to Tehran to bring it up to date on
the latest discussions, officials said Thursday. The EU's Deputy
Secretary-General Helga Schmid and Dr. Ali Bagheri, Deputy Secretary of
Iran's Supreme National Security Council, talked on the phone Wednesday,
a spokesman for EU foreign policy head Catherine Ashton said. 'The call
took place in the context of ongoing diplomatic efforts ... towards a
diplomatic solution of the Iranian nuclear issue which the High
Representative of the European Union is leading,' he said. The call 'was
used to inform Iran' about a meeting between the five permanent UN
Security Council members plus Germany in New York on September 27, he
said." http://t.uani.com/TeaDbs
Sanctions
Reuters:
"Using shadowy middle men, multiple bank accounts and a fleet of
ghost ships, Iran's coal trade is quietly booming as the Islamic Republic
tries to sidestep Western sanctions and prevent its industrial economy
from crashing... Despite the setbacks, industry sources say producers in
Ukraine are providing Iran with coking coal, also known as metallurgical
coal, and coke - key steel ingredients. 'Iranians used to buy a lot of
coking coal from Australia to make their own coke but that has stopped
now as the big companies there don't want to do it as they are too
exposed,' a British-based coal trade source said. 'So Iran went to buy
coke from Ukraine,' he added, referring to the concentrated coal used in
blast furnaces... Lured by a trade worth nearly $25 million a month,
suppliers in Ukraine are aiming to take advantage." http://t.uani.com/P8722n
Bloomberg:
"International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) received a request from
the Securities and Exchange Commission to describe its interactions with
Iran, following reports that ZTE Corp. resold some IBM products in the
country. IBM supplied information to the SEC, which completed its
investigation in September, according to documents released today. As
IBM's business partner, ZTE is required to comply fully with U.S.
regulations, including economic sanctions and export laws, IBM said in
its response to the SEC. 'Iran is designated as a state sponsor of
terrorism by the State Department and is subject to U.S. economic
sanctions and export controls,' the SEC said in an August letter to IBM.
'Please describe to us the nature, duration, and extent of your past,
current, and anticipated contacts with Iran, whether through
subsidiaries, distributors, resellers, or other direct or indirect
arrangements.'" http://t.uani.com/WN5Cxq
Reuters:
"Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ pulled out of a bond mandate for
Turkish refiner Tupras due to concerns over the issuer's supply
relationship with Iran, two sources away from the deal told IFR on
Thursday. The bank had been originally mandated alongside Citigroup and
Deutsche Bank to lead the refiner's debut dollar issue, but decided to
pull out at the last minute. Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ declined to
comment. Tupras, Turkey's only oil refiner, has a waiver over sanctions
imposed by the US government on purchases of Iranian oil. Turkey was
granted a six-month exemption in June after Tupras pledged in March to
cut its Iranian oil purchases by 20%." http://t.uani.com/TFp52A
Human Rights
Reuters:
"The European Union's prize for human rights and freedom of thought
was awarded to two Iranians on Friday, a lawyer and a filmmaker who have
both been cut off from the outside world for defying the country's
leadership. Imprisoned human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, 49, and
filmmaker Jafar Panahi, 52, were awarded the European Parliament's
Sakharov Prize for their courage in defending their own and others' basic
freedoms, the parliament said... 'The award... is a message of solidarity
and recognition to a woman and a man who have not been bowed by fear and
intimidation and who have decided to put the fate of their country before
their own,' said European Parliament President Martin Schulz as he
announced the winners." http://t.uani.com/RPsnvv
AFP:
"A tribunal set up by victims of political crimes committed in the
wake of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution began hearings Thursday in a bid
to highlight killings ignored by international justice. Top judges and
lawyers are taking part in the tribunal, which has no judicial authority,
to judge those responsible for killing thousands of political prisoners
after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power. The hope is that the
tribunal, held in the library of the Peace Palace in The Hague, will
force the United Nations to set up a commission of enquiry into the
killings of over 20,000 people that have gone unpunished for over 25
years. 'The world doesn't investigate what it doesn't want to
investigate,' said Geoffrey Nice, a member of the tribunal and former prosecutor
at the UN's International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia
(ICTY). 'The most important thing is to leave a record.'" http://t.uani.com/VLikxu
Reuters:
"Iran rejected criticism from a U.N. human rights investigator over
its tighter cyber security rules, saying they are necessary to protect it
against cyber attacks and have nothing whatsoever to do with freedom of
expression. In his latest report, U.N. special rapporteur on the human
rights situation in Iran, Ahmed Shaheed, said he was concerned about
reports of government activities 'that seemingly infringe on freedom of
expression and the right to information.' He said authorities have
reportedly targeted websites they see as promoting terrorism, espionage,
and economic or social crimes." http://t.uani.com/Xqk4u9
Foreign Affairs
WSJ:
"Iran is funding aid projects and expanding intelligence networks
across Afghanistan, moving to fill the void to be left by the U.S.
withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, according to U.S. and Afghan
officials. While Iran's spending here is nowhere near the billions the
U.S. spends, Tehran's ability to run grass-roots programs and work
directly with Afghans is giving its efforts disproportionate
clout-something it could wield against American interests should the U.S.
military strike Iran's nuclear program. 'Iran is the real influence here.
With one snap of their fingers, they can mobilize 20,000 Afghans,' said a
high-ranking official in Afghanistan's presidential palace. 'This is much
more dangerous than the suicide bombers coming from Pakistan. At least
you can see them and fight them. But you can't as easily see and fight
Iran's political and cultural influence.'" http://t.uani.com/U0c7ac
Opinion &
Analysis
Dennis Ross in
Al-Hayat: "Regardless of who is elected on
November 6th, Iran's nuclear program is going to be one of the most
important challenges the next president is going to have to confront.
Unless Iran's leaders shift course and suddenly decide to suspend their
ongoing enrichment of uranium, the continuing progress of the Iranian
nuclear program will require additional moves by the United States and
the international community. From an American standpoint, it is important
to remember that both President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney
have committed themselves to preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear
weapons and not containing it after it has done so. At the current pace
of Iran's nuclear efforts, the Iranian nuclear program will reach a point
some time before the end of 2013 where the accumulation of low and medium
enriched uranium will make it difficult for the United States to know
with confidence that it could prevent Iran's leaders from presenting the
world with a fait accompli -- meaning the Iranians might well be able to
produce a nuclear weapon so quickly that we would not have time to
prevent it. To be sure, the Iranians could decide to slow the pace of
their efforts either because they fear a military response or to try to
gain sanctions relief given the economic pain they are experiencing. But
that would require a change in Iran's behavior. Barring that, either a
re-elected President Obama or a newly elected Governor Romney will have
to decide what else needs to be done to fulfill their objective of
prevention. For President Obama, this is probably an easier task. He has
lived with this issue for the last four years and thought it through. He
has developed a strategy of increasing the pressure on the Iranians and
the cost they pay for their continuing defiance of the international
community, while also leaving them a diplomatic way out if they choose to
take it. And there is no doubt that the Iranians are paying a terrible
economic price: crippling sanctions have been imposed and led to a
dramatic reduction in Iran's oil production and sales -- the principal
source of revenue for the Iranian government. Iran's currency by some
estimates is being devalued by half every two months, meaning that
inflation is raging upwards, goods are dramatically more expensive and
savings are losing their value. Doing business internationally has been
made nearly impossible. Iran's Supreme Leader, while maintaining a
posture of defiance, recently described the sanctions as 'brutal.'
Previously, he always spoke of how the sanctions would make Iran stronger
and more self-sufficient. Now he calls on Iran's officials to stop
blaming each other for the economic maladies sanctions are imposing. None
of this means that Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, is about to change
course, but it does mean that for President Obama, the strategy of
pressure is having an effect. Still, the Iranian centrifuges keep
spinning and the Iranians keep accumulating enriched uranium. As a
result, President Obama is likely to look for ways to intensify the
pressure economically and coercively -- further emphasizing that the time
for diplomacy is running out and all options are on the table. Governor
Romney has not lived with the issue for the last four years. Should he be
elected, he will need time to establish his Administration and conduct a
review of the issue. He is far less likely than President Obama to be
able to move quickly on the issue, but like the President, he probably
will see the value of increased economic and military pressure as a way
of not simply raising the costs to the Iranians but also conveying to
them that if diplomacy fails we will be prepared to use force." http://t.uani.com/Vs94IJ
Meir Javedanfar in
Al-Monitor: "The Iranian regime is currently facing
tough open-ended sanctions. Judging by the recent presidential
foreign-policy debate, there is no end on the horizon as neither
candidate would be willing to reduce sanctions unless Iran Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei backs down. The economic challenges posed by the current
sanctions are by far the biggest foreign-induced challenge that Khamenei
has faced since assuming the role in 1989. Should the current sanctions
and isolation regime imposed by the West against Iran continue in their
current format, in my opinion it is highly likely that Khamenei will be
forced to make a new set of compromises at the nuclear talks. This could
happen within two to three years, at most. Compromises are likely
to include the following: 1. Closing Iran's nuclear site at Fordow near
Qom 2. Agreeing to ship all of its 20%-enriched uranium abroad for
conversion into nuclear fuel 3. Agreeing to answer all outstanding IAEA
questions regarding its past nuclear activities 4. Agreeing to a tougher
inspection regime for Iran's nuclear facilities 5. Dropping the demand
that the West recognize Iran's right to enrich uranium as a precondition
(This recognition is likely to be postponed until all other outstanding
issues have been resolved.) The Iranian regime is likely to offer these
compromises as part of a step-by-step program. After each step is taken,
part of the current sanctions against Iran would be lifted and nuclear
fuel would be supplied, at stages agreed on by both parties. Khamenei is
also very likely to insist that ultimately Iran be allowed to enrich at
lower levels on its soil. It is likely that the Israeli government would
accept such a proposal, as its biggest concern is enrichment at Fordow
and Iran's current unwillingness to answer IAEA questions. A clean bill
of health for Iran's nuclear program from the IAEA, as well as a subsequent
tough inspection regime by it, would alleviate many of Israel's major
concerns. These compromises would be in contrast to Khamenei's current
prposal to the P5+1, which does not show any willingness on Iran's part
to compromise on its enrichment facility at Fordow or to answer questions
about its previous activities to the IAEA. Although president Ahmadinejad
has in the past offered to stop enrichment at 20% if nuclear fuel is
supplied to Iran, this offer was not pursued as he has no authority over
Iran's nuclear program. Khamenei would need to offer new compromises in
order to secure his regime's survival. By allowing the sanctions to
continue, Khamenei could ultimately face the economic collapse of his
regime. This is a price which Iran's most powerful man would be unwilling
to pay. Nothing is worth more to him than the stability of his
government." http://t.uani.com/VKQNfx
David Albright,
Andrea Stricker, and Christina Walrond in ISIS:
"Iran Press TV reported on October 2, 2012 that the deputy head of
the Iranian Majli's (Parliament's) Foreign Policy and National Security
Committee, Mansour Haqiqatpour, said that if talks between the P5+1 and
Iran over its nuclear program fail, Iran will enrich uranium to 60
percent for use in nuclear submarines. Any uranium enriched to 20
percent or greater is classified as highly enriched uranium (HEU).
Press TV quotes him as saying, 'In case our talks with the P5+1 group -
including the US, the UK, France, China, Russia and Germany - fail to pay
off, Iranian youth will master enrichment up to 60 percent to fuel
submarines and ocean-going ships.' He added, 'Iran cannot guarantee it
would keep its enrichment limited to 20 percent,' and, 'They should not
think that we will stay calm in the face of threats, sanctions and
pressure.' Haqiqatpour's threat to make highly enriched uranium likely
has more to do with this influential parliamentarian attempting to exert
political pressure on the P5+1 to seek agreement at negotiations. His
claim should not be seen as having any official standing for policy
unless repeated or announced by senior executive or nuclear
officials. However, it is time to consider the implications of such
statements, before Iran makes any official announcements about making
highly enriched uranium. The United States and the international
community should prepare for the possibility that Iran may officially
announce that it has decided to make highly enriched uranium, including
enriching up to 60 percent, under a civilian or naval nuclear rationale.
The production of 60 percent enriched uranium would put Iran
significantly closer to having weapon grade uranium, (WGU, a form of
highly enriched uranium that is enriched to 90 percent or more) compared
to its current stockpile of 19.75 percent enriched uranium and would
significantly shorten the amount of time Iran would need in a breakout
scenario. Moreover, Iran does not require 60 percent HEU despite the
parliamentarian's claims. The production of highly enriched uranium
would be an important precedent, which Iran could later use to justify
the production of weapon-grade uranium. Because 60 percent enriched
uranium production is an important step towards the production of WGU and
has no civilian justification, such a move will be widely viewed as Iran
starting to break out to build nuclear weapons. The United States
and other members of the P5+1 should ensure, ideally in a quiet manner,
that Iran understands that its production of highly enriched uranium is
unacceptable, regardless of the pretext." http://t.uani.com/P85CF1
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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