Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Eye on Iran: Iran May Slash Oil Sales Outlook, Store More as Sanctions Bite








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Reuters:
"Iran's state budget for the next fiscal year may assume exports of just 1 million barrels of oil a day, an Iranian budget planning commission member told the semi-official Fars news agency on Monday, about half volumes shipped in 2011. 'Apparently, the government wants to decrease the 1392 (the next Iranian year starting on March 21) state budget's reliance on oil exports to one million barrels a day,' parliamentarian Gholamreza Mesbahi Moqaddam was quoted as saying by Fars. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Iranian oil exports dipped below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) over summer as U.S. and European Union sanctions on Tehran tightened. According to official Iranian government data available through the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI), Iran exported an average of just over 2 million bpd in 2011." http://t.uani.com/UYsHY5

WSJ:
"Customs inspectors raided the headquarters of a leading Spanish machine-tools manufacturer that they said exported machinery to Iran via Turkey in violation of sanctions aimed at Iran's nuclear program, customs officials said Monday. The investigation highlighted European officials' assistance in enforcing U.S.-led sanctions against Iran on a continent that remains the Islamic republic's largest trading partner, analysts said. Those sanctions have tightened export controls against dual-use technology, which can have both civilian and military applications. Iran says its nuclear program is aimed at energy production, but many Western nations consider it a cover for weapons development. Spanish officials said the company targeted in their investigation, ONA Electroerosion SA, sent to Iran, via through a Turkish-registered intermediary, seven multi-ton machines used in the manufacture of turbine propellers for energy generation, among other things. The machinery, exported in three separate shipments in 2010, cost €955,000, or about $1.2 million, the officials said." http://t.uani.com/XYEKwr

Business Standard:
"With Iran facing a currency crisis in the aftermath of US sanctions, Indian exporters are having a tough time in exporting to the Islamic republic. For example, Between April-September 2012, exports of engineering goods from India to Iran fell by almost 35% to $205.33 million, against $315.79 million in the same period last year, according to data from Engineering Export Promotion Council. Iran is passing through an acute economic crisis with its currency plunging to record low levels and prices of food articles escalating. Iran's currency, rial has fallen by about 40% against the dollar since August. As a result, Iranian banks have become extremely reluctant to issue letter of credit (LC) for Iranian importers, a crucial link to the which the newly established payment mechanism between India and Iran. Banks in Iran have been seeking up to 100% margin money for issuing LCs to their importers, which have shrunk the order book of  Indian exporters, said Indian exporters." http://t.uani.com/Tr4Zry
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Nuclear Program   

NBC News: "A new worm that appears to be targeted at Iran seeks to sabotage corporate databases by searching for specific phrases and values and replacing them with random ones. This latest bug, dubbed the 'Narilam' worm, goes after Microsoft SQL databases, according to Symantec, which first uncovered the malicious code. Despite its ability to destroy databases, it may be cold comfort to its victims to know that Narilam does not steal data. 'The malware does not have the functionality to steal information from the infected system,' Shuinchi Imano, a Symantec security researcher, said. '[It] appears to be programmed specifically to damage the data within the targeted database.' Imano went on to say that the 'vast majority' of affected Symantec customers were corporate users and not individual consumers. The worm searches for words related to financial accounts in English and Persian." http://t.uani.com/U0dJ2W

Sanctions

Trend.az: "Iranian car manufacturing has drastically diminished within just one year. In October 2012, ISNA reported that car production in Iran fell by 66 percent in September 2012, compared to same month of 2011. Considering the intense, pressuring international sanctions on Iran because of its nuclear program, many car manufacturing companies such as Fiat and General Motors, who had a significant market for Iran, stopped sending car parts to the country. Consindering the fact that many car brands have left Iran, and Islamic Republic's unstable foreign currency rate, the number of people willing to buy cars has significantly diminished as well. ILNA reported recently that the average car prices in Iran have increased in September 2012 by some 35 percent since March 2012.The unstable foreign currency rate and the absense of many international car manufacturing brands forced Iran's own car manufacturers to increase prices, as Iran Khodro increased its prices on cars by 10 percent, while Saipa - by 20 percent." http://t.uani.com/UZvDUh

Commerce

Bloomberg: "Iran plans to build a pipeline to increase natural gas supplies to its northern provinces and cut reliance on imports from Turkmenistan, the Tehran Times reported, citing a top energy official. The 160-kilometer (99-mile) link, which will carry gas from Semnan province to Mazandaran province, bordering the Caspian Sea, will be completed in two years at a cost of 3.5 trillion rials ($286 million), the report cited Javad Owji, National Iranian Gas Co.'s managing director, as saying. Iran imports as much as 18 million cubic meters of gas a day from Turkmenistan and the figure rises as high as 30 million cubic meters in winter months, according to the report." http://t.uani.com/U0Oxtd

Human Rights

AFP: "An Iranian MP has blamed the death in detention of blogger Sattar Beheshti on the country's cyber police, news agency Fars reported on Monday. 'The action taken by the judiciary in Beheshti's case was lawful, but the cyber police's infraction is indisputable,' said Mehdi Davatgari, the parliament's special representative on the case. Opposition activists say Beheshti, 35, was tortured to death after criticising Iran's regime in his blogs. He was found dead in his prison cell on November 3 after being arrested on October 30, chief prosecutor Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeie said last week. The blogger's fate provoked an international outcry, and human rights watchdog Amnesty International said he may have died under torture. 'Unfortunately, the cyber police officers kept the suspect without a court order in a detention facility for one night, which is completely illegal,' Davatgari said. 'Despite the judges' order to take him to a legal detention center, the cyber police took him to their own detention facility,' where Beheshti died, Davatgari said, calling for the 'resignation or dismissal of the cyber police chief.'" http://t.uani.com/URgA1c

Syrian Uprising

AFP: "Iran must reconsider its support for the Syrian regime if it does not want to alienate Arab public opinion, the deputy chief of the Iranian-backed Palestinian movement Hamas said on Monday. 'Iran's position in the Arab world, it's no longer a good position," Mussa Abu Marzuk, whose movement's politburo had been based in Damascus, said during a briefing to reporters at his new headquarters in the Egyptian capital. 'It has to address its position, so as not to lose public opinion,' he said. Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, relocated its leadership from Damascus to Qatar and Egypt after a rift with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad over his brutal crackdown on the revolt against his regime that began in March last year." http://t.uani.com/QmRiJq

Regional Meddling


CNN: "Iran is 'finding ways to resupply Hamas' with long range rockets and other weapons even after the intense fighting between Hamas and Israel that ended in a cease-fire last week, a senior U.S. official told CNN. The issue is sure to be a problem as Israel and Hamas work out further terms of the cease fire agreement. Outgoing Israel Defense Minister Ehud Barak will be at the Pentagon on Wednesday and the topic of Iran arming Hamas is sure to be discussed. One area of focus is the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, which is under intense surveillance by American and Israeli intelligence services using spy satellites to gather the latest on Iran's cargo ships and aircraft smuggling weapons into Gaza. U.S. and Israeli officials said Iranian ships make their way from Bandar Abbas into the Red Sea and dock in Sudan. Some unload arms and missile parts, which are then smuggled over land into Sinai and then into Gaza's tunnels, according to Israeli and American officials." http://t.uani.com/QIaRNJ

Reuters: "Two Iranian navy ships will dock in Sudan this week to refuel, state news agency SUNA said on Monday, the second such visit in a month since Sudan accused Israel of bombing an arms factory. Sudan blamed Israeli military planes for a huge explosion last month at the Yarmouk plant in Khartoum, the country's biggest small arms and ammunition factory. Four people were killed during the blast, according to Sudan... Sudan's army spokesman al-Sawarmi Khalid told SUNA two Iranian navy ships would dock on Friday at the Red Sea port of Port Sudan to refuel and take 'logistical provisions' on board." http://t.uani.com/U8R3zQ

Opinion & Analysis

Gerald Seib in Fox News:
"It didn't take long for the specter of Iran to rise up and hover over the preparations for President Barack Obama's second term. It might not be obvious that this is what happened last week, when fighting erupted in and around the Gaza Strip, but Iran figured in every element of the crisis. Iran provided Hamas with the long-range missiles that made its confrontation with Israel so serious, and it egged on both Hamas' leaders and the more radical Palestinian splinter groups that actually launched many of the rockets that precipitated Israel's military response. Iran also was undoubtedly pleased to see Israel tied down with a crisis on its western border, diverting attention from its concerns about Iran's nuclear program to the east. Iran likely was just as pleased to see attention diverted from the brutality being committed by its ally in Syria, where hundreds of its opposition foes were killed while the world was distracted. Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may well have agreed to an Egyptian and American cease-fire plan mostly to preserve military flexibility and international goodwill for his efforts to halt Iran's nuclear program. 'Iranian soft power in the Middle East tends to peak during times of tumult and carnage, which it can attribute to U.S. or to Israeli actions,' says Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. So, you might ask, what does all this have to do with the arc of President Obama's second term? Simple. It shows how hard it will be for the president to ignore the many problems Iran creates to focus on the rest of what he'd like to get done in the four years ahead." http://t.uani.com/TfYsMk

Abraham Foxman in Fox News: "The elephant in the Middle East room is Iran. Stopping the Islamic Republic of Iran from reaching a nuclear capability is the most important issue facing the international community. If we fail to do so, the implication on many issues, from energy to stability in the region to terrorism and to nuclear proliferation, will be profoundly negative and dangerous. On the other hand, if the U.S. and others succeed in preventing Iran from going nuclear, as President Obama has committed to, then a series of positive developments could flow. Included are a strengthened American image in the region, a tilt away from the Islamic extremists, and possibilities for progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front. We see this in microcosm when we look at what has been in happening in Gaza. It is impossible to understand what's going on in Gaza and with Hamas without recognizing Iran's role. It is hard to comprehend Israel's reaction to Hamas without seeing the role of the looming threat to Iran. It is impossible to find a solution in Gaza without taking Iran into account. And it is critical that very soon the world must move its attention from Gaza to Iran itself as the clock toward an Iranian nuclear weapon keeps on ticking. When Hamas began to take control in Gaza, many took comfort that at least it was a Sunni regime that unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon, would not draw too close to the Shiite Iranians. It was false comfort. Iran has become the major supplier of weapons, increasingly sophisticated, flowing to Hamas. Iran provides full diplomatic support to Hamas. And Iran works to strengthen the Islamist Hamas against the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas.The first necessity for the international community is to openly identify and expose Iran's role in building up Hamas. The Palestinian terrorist group has now been able to launch missiles that can reach Tel Aviv and cause great damage simply because of Iran. Iran ships its Fajr-5 and many Grad missiles through Sudan and, in the words of the head of the Republican Guard, Major General Mohammad Ali Ja'afari, 'we have given them (Hamas and others in Gaza) the necessary technology for the Fajr-5 and today mass quantities of this missile are being produced.' And make no mistake about it: Iran is determined to up the ante, to increase both the weaponry and training for Hamas that will allow it to become the same level of threat to Israel from the south as Hezbollah is from the north. Any solution to the threat of Hamas to Israel must provide a way to interdict that flow of arms from Iran." http://t.uani.com/10JwJKm

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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