Top Stories
Bloomberg:
"Iran's ambition to exploit the world's biggest natural gas
reserves, stymied for years by U.S. sanctions, faces an even sterner test
as rising global output and the North American shale boom threaten to
erode prices. The Persian Gulf state would need a decade to build planned
export capacity of at least 40 million metric tons a year of liquefied
natural gas even if unfettered by economic curbs over its nuclear
program, say analysts including Tony Regan at Tri-Zen International Pte.
A surge in U.S., Canadian and Australian gas from shale deposits may
depress prices for new LNG projects by 35 percent, according to Barclays
Plc and Royal Bank of Canada, reducing Iran's potential profit from
selling the fuel... 'Iran has missed the boat,' said Regan, an energy consultant
at Singapore-based Tri-Zen, which has worked with BP Plc and OAO Lukoil,
according to its website. 'They should have slotted in nicely between
Qatar's projects and the new Australian ones and before anyone was
talking about U.S. exports.' Sanctions have driven away partners with the
know-how Iran needs to develop LNG, he said by telephone July 8. 'In
addition to a lack of technology, they lack the funds.'" http://t.uani.com/12YxLUt
EAWorldView:
"The head of Iran's Central Bank has claimed that the Islamic
Republic's currency reserves have increased to between 60-65%, Mehr News
reports. Mahmoud Bahmani said that the currency reserves had seen a
'dramatic' increase over recent years and now stand at $40 billion.
Bahmani said that the issue of Iran's foreign exchange reserves was
confidential. Wait just a minute - did the Central Bank, after 18 months
of withholding figures, just admit to a 50% decrease - not a 60 to 65%
increase in Iran's foreign reserves? The Islamic Republic has not posted
official numbers on its reserves, but at the end of 2011 the best
estimates - including that of the CIA - were that Iran had amassed $80
billion." http://t.uani.com/1aZ5MJ8
RFE/RL:
"A former Iranian agriculture minister and current member of the
advising committee helping Hassan Rohani select his cabinet has warned
that the president-elect will inherit a blighted economy. When asked in
an interview published in the June 9 issue of the daily 'Ghanoon' about
the health of the country's agriculture sector, Issa Kalantari replies,
'May God help Rohani.' 'Unfortunately, Rohani will inherit the country
with empty warehouses, an empty treasury, empty ports, and an empty
central bank,' says Kalantari, who served as agriculture minister under
President Mohammad Khatami from 1989-98 and received two college degrees
in the United States." http://t.uani.com/18MYS9b
Sanctions
The Hindu:
"JN Port and Kandla Port, which are in talks with the Iranian
Government to develop Chabahar Port in Iran, would like rights to develop
and operate the port for 60-90 years. Given the US sanctions against
Iran, Chabahar port does not have immediate commercial viability, though
it does have long-term potential to emerge as the gateway to Afghanistan
and CIS countries. So, to make a potential case out of the project, India
is likely to ask the Iranian Government to assign it long-term rights of
60 to 90 years to develop and operate the port. Two Indian ports - JN
Port and Kandla Port - may get the rights to develop the Iranian port of
Chabahar, in a first-of-its-kind initiative of the Indian Government to
improve connectivity with Afghanistan and Iran. On Tuesday, an Iranian
delegation met JN Port and Kandla Port officials in Mumbai. 'The second
round of negotiations are on. A final decision will be taken with inputs
from the Ministries of External Affairs, Defence and Finance,' N. N.
Kumar, Chairman, JN Port, told Business Line. JN Port and Kandla Port
officials had visited Chabahar a few months ago." http://t.uani.com/12YDr0I
Terrorism
WT:
"House Republicans this week accused Argentina of trying to block
their investigation into suspected Iranian ties to terrorism in the
Western Hemisphere by refusing to let an Argentinian prosecutor testify
on the matter Tuesday. Lawmakers had invited the testimony from Alberto
Nisman, the special prosecutor in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in
Buenos Aires, in hopes that it would refute the report by the State
Department that asserted Iran's influence in the hemisphere is 'waning.'
Mr. Nisman made international headlines in May when he issued a 500-page
report claiming that Iran has, in fact, spent the past three decades
growing terrorist networks throughout Latin America, infiltrating several
nations in the region with the goal of executing future attacks. Two
House Republicans claimed the Argentine government was refusing to allow
Mr. Nisman to travel to Washington and appear for Tuesday's
hearing." http://t.uani.com/11BQcjM
Human Rights
Iran Human Rights:
"Three prisoners were hanged in the prison of Kermanshah (west of
Iran), reported the state run Iranian news agency ISNA today. According
to the report the prisoners were identified as 'A. R.' convicted of
murder, 'A. F.' convicted of possession and trafficking of 2960 grams of
heroin and 973 grams of crack, and 'F. Kh.' convicted of murder. The
executions have taken place on July 8 according to another report by the
Iranian state broadcasting." http://t.uani.com/10MG5WI
Domestic
Politics
AP:
"An Iranian Jewish activist is criticizing outgoing President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for his remarks hailing his challenges over the
extent of the Holocaust. In rare public outrage by an Iranian Jewish
leader, Haroun Yashaei was quoted Wednesday by the pro-reform Shragh
newspaper as calling Ahmadinejad's recent comments 'smug' and highly
political. On Sunday, Ahmadinejad boasted that he rattled Western taboos
by calling for more historical research into the Nazi atrocities.
Yashaei, who heads the Tehran Jewish community, described Ahmadinejad's
comments as offensive and said Jews were not sent to concentration camps
for a 'stroll.'" http://t.uani.com/1aoPU3w
EAWorldView:
"As President-elect Hassan Rouhani tries to take control of economic
matters, and as the Central Bank halves the value of the Iranian
currency, a telling reminder from the Central Bank of the challenge... On
Monday, the Bank released figures for annual price increases in food
items in Tehran. The lowest rise was 11.9% for chicken, but almost all
other items was above 40% - including grains at 111.1%, tea at 100.8%,
and fresh vegetables at 84.4%. The increases elsewhere: rice 64.2% dairy
products 40.7%; eggs 59.7%; fresh fruit 18.3%; red meat 55.6%; sugar
41.2%; and vegetable oil 58.2%. The unofficial numbers could be higher,
with reports periodically pointing to spikes in prices amid issues of
production, imports, and currency." http://t.uani.com/1aZ5lPa
Foreign Affairs
Free Beacon:
"Argentina's populist-socialist president Cristina Fernández de
Kirchner has allowed Iran to infiltrate its economic sector and
potentially use the country as a terrorist launching pad, U.S. officials
and multiple experts said on Tuesday. Iranian agents have been permitted
access to Latin America's Free Trade Zones, which operate throughout the
porous borders that separate Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil, the
terrorism experts testified before the House Subcommittee on Oversight
and Management Efficiency... Iran also recently opened a joint chamber of
commerce last year in Buenos Aires, according to the U.S. officials.
Exports from Argentina to Iran jumped from around $84 million in 2008 to
some $1.2 billion in 2011, according to U.S. officials. Argentina is
Iran's second largest trading partner in the region, according to the
intelligence officials. As Tehran gains access to Latin America it has
been able to build a complex 'pipeline to move illicit products all
across the region,' according to Joseph M. Humire, executive director of
the Center for a Secure Free Society. These Latin American trade zones
help Iran launder money and move people, military hardware, and other
products throughout the region, Humire said." http://t.uani.com/11BRFGy
Opinion &
Analysis
Joseph Lieberman
in WSJ: "The latest political upheaval in Egypt and
the worsening violence in Syria are daily reminders of how important the
Middle East is to American interests. But the most dangerous challenge to
U.S. national security brewing in the region continues to be the Iranian
regime's pursuit of a nuclear-weapons capability. Now the struggle by
America and its allies to stop the Iranian nuclear project is entering a
critical new phase. Reaction to the election last month of Hasan Rouhani
as Iran's president has generally divided into two camps. The first sees
the victory by Mr. Rouhani-reputedly the most moderate of the approved
candidates-rekindling hope of a diplomatic breakthrough over Tehran's
illicit nuclear program. The second holds that Mr. Rouhani's election
won't alter Iran's nuclear strategy. This is either because the real
political power in Iran is vested not in the presidency but in Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has shown no inclination toward compromise,
or because Mr. Rouhani himself, despite his rhetoric, is a consummate
regime insider and thus unlikely to change. There is, however, a third
possibility to consider: that the Iranian regime under Mr. Rouhani will
shift its international behavior, but that Tehran, rather than abandon
its goal of a nuclear-weapons capability, will instead simply adopt a
shrewder, more effective approach. When it comes to international
diplomacy, Iran's leaders have been their own worst enemies in recent
years. For decades, Tehran sponsored terrorism, engaged in illicit
nuclear work and violated Iranians' human rights, with little reproof
from outsiders. But over the past eight years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's
tenure as president, his outrageous rhetoric, fraud-tainted re-election
and vicious crackdowns against peaceful protesters have made the true
nature of the Iranian regime considerably harder for the world to ignore.
As important has been Iran's refusal to make even minor concessions in
nuclear talks with the P5+1-the five permanent members of the U.N.
Security Council plus Germany-or with the International Atomic Energy
Agency. The obstinance has turned governments against Tehran that might
otherwise have been friendly. It has also made possible previously
unthinkable sanctions against Iran, such as an oil embargo. The risk with
Mr. Rouhani, who takes office next month, is that the Iranians will adopt
a smarter strategy that accepts tactical compromises at the negotiating
table, but only to buy the time and space necessary to push ahead with
the most important elements of their nuclear program. This is precisely
what Mr. Rouhani himself boasted in a 2004 speech that he had done as
Iran's nuclear negotiator: suspending enrichment as a sop to the
international community, even as Iran moved forward on other fronts.
'While we were talking with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing
equipment in parts of the [uranium conversion] facility in Isfahan,' he
said in the speech in Iran. 'In fact, by creating a calm environment, we
were able to complete the work in Isfahan.' Such a strategy is even more
dangerous today because the Iranians are so much closer to the nuclear
finish line. Tehran is installing approximately 200 advanced centrifuges
a month. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran is
rapidly installing hundreds of next-generation centrifuges that, within a
year or sooner, will give the regime the capacity to produce enough
weapons-grade uranium in just a few weeks to produce a nuclear
weapon." http://t.uani.com/12qOX0E
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