Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Eye on Iran: Iran's LNG Dreams Vanish as U.S. Shale Gas Looms











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Bloomberg: "Iran's ambition to exploit the world's biggest natural gas reserves, stymied for years by U.S. sanctions, faces an even sterner test as rising global output and the North American shale boom threaten to erode prices. The Persian Gulf state would need a decade to build planned export capacity of at least 40 million metric tons a year of liquefied natural gas even if unfettered by economic curbs over its nuclear program, say analysts including Tony Regan at Tri-Zen International Pte. A surge in U.S., Canadian and Australian gas from shale deposits may depress prices for new LNG projects by 35 percent, according to Barclays Plc and Royal Bank of Canada, reducing Iran's potential profit from selling the fuel... 'Iran has missed the boat,' said Regan, an energy consultant at Singapore-based Tri-Zen, which has worked with BP Plc and OAO Lukoil, according to its website. 'They should have slotted in nicely between Qatar's projects and the new Australian ones and before anyone was talking about U.S. exports.' Sanctions have driven away partners with the know-how Iran needs to develop LNG, he said by telephone July 8. 'In addition to a lack of technology, they lack the funds.'" http://t.uani.com/12YxLUt

EAWorldView: "The head of Iran's Central Bank has claimed that the Islamic Republic's currency reserves have increased to between 60-65%, Mehr News reports. Mahmoud Bahmani said that the currency reserves had seen a 'dramatic' increase over recent years and now stand at $40 billion. Bahmani said that the issue of Iran's foreign exchange reserves was confidential. Wait just a minute - did the Central Bank, after 18 months of withholding figures, just admit to a 50% decrease - not a 60 to 65% increase in Iran's foreign reserves? The Islamic Republic has not posted official numbers on its reserves, but at the end of 2011 the best estimates - including that of the CIA - were that Iran had amassed $80 billion." http://t.uani.com/1aZ5MJ8

RFE/RL: "A former Iranian agriculture minister and current member of the advising committee helping Hassan Rohani select his cabinet has warned that the president-elect will inherit a blighted economy. When asked in an interview published in the June 9 issue of the daily 'Ghanoon' about the health of the country's agriculture sector, Issa Kalantari replies, 'May God help Rohani.' 'Unfortunately, Rohani will inherit the country with empty warehouses, an empty treasury, empty ports, and an empty central bank,' says Kalantari, who served as agriculture minister under President Mohammad Khatami from 1989-98 and received two college degrees in the United States." http://t.uani.com/18MYS9b
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Sanctions

The Hindu: "JN Port and Kandla Port, which are in talks with the Iranian Government to develop Chabahar Port in Iran, would like rights to develop and operate the port for 60-90 years. Given the US sanctions against Iran, Chabahar port does not have immediate commercial viability, though it does have long-term potential to emerge as the gateway to Afghanistan and CIS countries. So, to make a potential case out of the project, India is likely to ask the Iranian Government to assign it long-term rights of 60 to 90 years to develop and operate the port. Two Indian ports - JN Port and Kandla Port - may get the rights to develop the Iranian port of Chabahar, in a first-of-its-kind initiative of the Indian Government to improve connectivity with Afghanistan and Iran. On Tuesday, an Iranian delegation met JN Port and Kandla Port officials in Mumbai. 'The second round of negotiations are on. A final decision will be taken with inputs from the Ministries of External Affairs, Defence and Finance,' N. N. Kumar, Chairman, JN Port, told Business Line. JN Port and Kandla Port officials had visited Chabahar a few months ago." http://t.uani.com/12YDr0I

Terrorism

WT:
"House Republicans this week accused Argentina of trying to block their investigation into suspected Iranian ties to terrorism in the Western Hemisphere by refusing to let an Argentinian prosecutor testify on the matter Tuesday. Lawmakers had invited the testimony from Alberto Nisman, the special prosecutor in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires, in hopes that it would refute the report by the State Department that asserted Iran's influence in the hemisphere is 'waning.' Mr. Nisman made international headlines in May when he issued a 500-page report claiming that Iran has, in fact, spent the past three decades growing terrorist networks throughout Latin America, infiltrating several nations in the region with the goal of executing future attacks. Two House Republicans claimed the Argentine government was refusing to allow Mr. Nisman to travel to Washington and appear for Tuesday's hearing." http://t.uani.com/11BQcjM

Human Rights


Iran Human Rights: "Three prisoners were hanged in the prison of Kermanshah (west of Iran), reported the state run Iranian news agency ISNA today. According to the report the prisoners were identified as 'A. R.' convicted of murder, 'A. F.' convicted of possession and trafficking of 2960 grams of heroin and 973 grams of crack, and 'F. Kh.' convicted of murder. The executions have taken place on July 8 according to another report by the Iranian state broadcasting." http://t.uani.com/10MG5WI

Domestic Politics

AP: "An Iranian Jewish activist is criticizing outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for his remarks hailing his challenges over the extent of the Holocaust. In rare public outrage by an Iranian Jewish leader, Haroun Yashaei was quoted Wednesday by the pro-reform Shragh newspaper as calling Ahmadinejad's recent comments 'smug' and highly political. On Sunday, Ahmadinejad boasted that he rattled Western taboos by calling for more historical research into the Nazi atrocities. Yashaei, who heads the Tehran Jewish community, described Ahmadinejad's comments as offensive and said Jews were not sent to concentration camps for a 'stroll.'" http://t.uani.com/1aoPU3w

EAWorldView: "As President-elect Hassan Rouhani tries to take control of economic matters, and as the Central Bank halves the value of the Iranian currency, a telling reminder from the Central Bank of the challenge... On Monday, the Bank released figures for annual price increases in food items in Tehran. The lowest rise was 11.9% for chicken, but almost all other items was above 40% - including grains at 111.1%, tea at 100.8%, and fresh vegetables at 84.4%. The increases elsewhere: rice 64.2% dairy products 40.7%; eggs 59.7%; fresh fruit 18.3%; red meat 55.6%; sugar 41.2%; and vegetable oil 58.2%. The unofficial numbers could be higher, with reports periodically pointing to spikes in prices amid issues of production, imports, and currency." http://t.uani.com/1aZ5lPa

Foreign Affairs

Free Beacon: "Argentina's populist-socialist president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has allowed Iran to infiltrate its economic sector and potentially use the country as a terrorist launching pad, U.S. officials and multiple experts said on Tuesday. Iranian agents have been permitted access to Latin America's Free Trade Zones, which operate throughout the porous borders that separate Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil, the terrorism experts testified before the House Subcommittee on Oversight and Management Efficiency... Iran also recently opened a joint chamber of commerce last year in Buenos Aires, according to the U.S. officials. Exports from Argentina to Iran jumped from around $84 million in 2008 to some $1.2 billion in 2011, according to U.S. officials. Argentina is Iran's second largest trading partner in the region, according to the intelligence officials. As Tehran gains access to Latin America it has been able to build a complex 'pipeline to move illicit products all across the region,' according to Joseph M. Humire, executive director of the Center for a Secure Free Society. These Latin American trade zones help Iran launder money and move people, military hardware, and other products throughout the region, Humire said." http://t.uani.com/11BRFGy

Opinion & Analysis

Joseph Lieberman in WSJ: "The latest political upheaval in Egypt and the worsening violence in Syria are daily reminders of how important the Middle East is to American interests. But the most dangerous challenge to U.S. national security brewing in the region continues to be the Iranian regime's pursuit of a nuclear-weapons capability. Now the struggle by America and its allies to stop the Iranian nuclear project is entering a critical new phase. Reaction to the election last month of Hasan Rouhani as Iran's president has generally divided into two camps. The first sees the victory by Mr. Rouhani-reputedly the most moderate of the approved candidates-rekindling hope of a diplomatic breakthrough over Tehran's illicit nuclear program. The second holds that Mr. Rouhani's election won't alter Iran's nuclear strategy. This is either because the real political power in Iran is vested not in the presidency but in Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has shown no inclination toward compromise, or because Mr. Rouhani himself, despite his rhetoric, is a consummate regime insider and thus unlikely to change. There is, however, a third possibility to consider: that the Iranian regime under Mr. Rouhani will shift its international behavior, but that Tehran, rather than abandon its goal of a nuclear-weapons capability, will instead simply adopt a shrewder, more effective approach. When it comes to international diplomacy, Iran's leaders have been their own worst enemies in recent years. For decades, Tehran sponsored terrorism, engaged in illicit nuclear work and violated Iranians' human rights, with little reproof from outsiders. But over the past eight years of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's tenure as president, his outrageous rhetoric, fraud-tainted re-election and vicious crackdowns against peaceful protesters have made the true nature of the Iranian regime considerably harder for the world to ignore. As important has been Iran's refusal to make even minor concessions in nuclear talks with the P5+1-the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany-or with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The obstinance has turned governments against Tehran that might otherwise have been friendly. It has also made possible previously unthinkable sanctions against Iran, such as an oil embargo. The risk with Mr. Rouhani, who takes office next month, is that the Iranians will adopt a smarter strategy that accepts tactical compromises at the negotiating table, but only to buy the time and space necessary to push ahead with the most important elements of their nuclear program. This is precisely what Mr. Rouhani himself boasted in a 2004 speech that he had done as Iran's nuclear negotiator: suspending enrichment as a sop to the international community, even as Iran moved forward on other fronts. 'While we were talking with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment in parts of the [uranium conversion] facility in Isfahan,' he said in the speech in Iran. 'In fact, by creating a calm environment, we were able to complete the work in Isfahan.' Such a strategy is even more dangerous today because the Iranians are so much closer to the nuclear finish line. Tehran is installing approximately 200 advanced centrifuges a month. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran is rapidly installing hundreds of next-generation centrifuges that, within a year or sooner, will give the regime the capacity to produce enough weapons-grade uranium in just a few weeks to produce a nuclear weapon." http://t.uani.com/12qOX0E

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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