Thursday, July 18, 2013

Eye on Iran: UK Parliament Queries British Arms Exports to Syria, Iran and Others











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Reuters: "Britain has granted billions of pounds worth of military export licenses for countries such as Syria, Iran and Libya despite proclaiming deep concerns about their human rights records, the British parliament said on Wednesday. In a critical report, parliament's Committees on Arms Export Controls said Britain had approved licenses for weapons exports to 27 countries worth 12.3 billion pounds ($18.6 billion) highlighting the 'inherent conflict' between its arms exports policy and its human rights policy. 'The government should apply significantly more cautious judgments when considering arms export license applications for goods to authoritarian regimes in contravention of the government's stated policy,' said John Stanley, the chairman of the committees. It was not clear whether goods had actually been shipped to the countries for which arms export licenses had been given. Parts for bullet-proof vehicles and underwater listening devices were approved for export to Syria while Iran licenses covered civil aircraft and a range of military electronic equipment including 80 million pounds' worth of encryption devices and software." http://t.uani.com/111OvJR

WSJ: "Iran's President-elect Hasan Rouhani, after winning office with an unexpected level of popular support, will put his political pull to the test in the coming weeks with the appointment of a cabinet lineup that could anger his foes. Mr. Rouhani, who takes office in early August, has promised to deliver a balanced government that draws from technocrats and former officials from reformist political factions and the conservatives who were trounced in elections a month ago. Iran's conservative parties have regrouped to debate how to overcome their low popularity and perceived policy failures. They have also criticized an initial list of potential cabinet nominations leaked to the media that would put reformists, who support moderate policies and a more open society, back into decision-making roles. In a system in which each nominated cabinet member must get parliamentary approval, some conservative legislators openly warned this week that they could block nominations." http://t.uani.com/1brEF9V

Reuters: "India has extended a temporary approval to Iranian underwriters Kish P&I Club and Moallem Insurance Co for covering container and tanker vessels calling at Indian ports, in a move that should clear a backlog of non-oil shipments. The three-month extension is unlikely to revive imports of Iranian oil as most Indian buyers have halted shipments because of an insurance issue related to their refineries. The previous approval given to Kish and Moallem to cover Iranian vessels lapsed on June 28. Since then Iran-bound containers of engineering goods, rice, soymeal and other items have been stranded at Indian ports, while shipment of fertilizers and other India-bound goods have piled up at Bandar Abbas port in the sanctions-hit nation. The approval of the three-month extension to Kish and Moallem takes effect from the date of the lapse, according to a shipping ministry letter dated July 17 to the Directorate General of Shipping and seen by Reuters... India, however, is worried about the financial strength of Kish and Moallem and has sought government guarantees to back up the companies, while granting them three-month approvals to insure ships calling at Indian ports." http://t.uani.com/11ZQIs2
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Sanctions

WashPost: "This capital's vast bazaar is home to, by most estimates, the highest concentration of handmade rugs in the world, with millions of the floor coverings piled high in more than a thousand shops in a labyrinth of ancient passageways. Iran's rug exports, however, are declining - revenue was down 17 percent last year - as are the number of people employed in the industry. Many people associated with the trade believe its survival is threatened. The centuries-old industry has been hit hard by repeated economic crises in recent years, as well as by economic sanctions imposed by the United States, formerly the biggest market for Persian carpets. Even in Iran, cheaper, machine-made rugs are starting to outsell handmade ones. The industry's decline is just one more problem facing the Islamic republic's president-elect, Hassan Rouhani, when he takes office in early August... After energy products, handmade rugs are Iran's most important export, accounting for $560 million last year, which amounts to about 20 percent of the global handmade rug market." http://t.uani.com/111OOV7

Terrorism

AFP: "A year after an anti-Israeli bus bombing killed six people, Bulgaria is struggling to identify the attacker or confirm his suspected links to Hezbollah or Iran. The July 18, 2012 bombing at Bulgaria's Black Sea Burgas airport was the deadliest attack on Israelis abroad since 2004 and the first in an EU member state. Five Israeli tourists and their Bulgarian (Muslim) bus driver were killed and some 30 other people were injured... Two identical driver's licences -- made in Lebanon and used by two of the perpetrator's suspected accomplices -- allowed investigators to track down the real identities of Canadian and Australian passport holders residing in Lebanon since 2006 and 2010. 'What we can make as a justified conclusion is that the two persons whose identity we have established belonged to the military wing of Hezbollah,' the then Interior Minister Tsvetan Tsvetanov said in February." http://t.uani.com/17nuWN2

Domestic Politics

WSJ: "What does it take for Iran to try to erase the lifework of one of its most celebrated film directors? A visit to Israel. Mohsen Makhmalbaf, a 56-year-old internationally acclaimed director, went to Jerusalem last week to be honored as a special guest of the Jerusalem Film Festival... He is the first prominent Iranian to officially visit Israel. The Islamic Republic's flag, with its Allah emblem, fluttered next to flags of other countries represented at the festival, including Israel's. It didn't take long for Iranian officials to react. Iran's cinema organization banned the sale of all of Mr. Makhmalbaf's movies and ordered the museum of cinema to clear out the section devoted to Mr. Makhmalbaf career, awards and memorabilia from his movies. Javad Shamghadari, the head of the country's cinema organization, called Mr. Makhmalbaf a person with 'no roots' and a 'lost soul' who was seeking lowly honors." http://t.uani.com/194T2jz

Bloomberg: "Summer in Tehran can be tough on women, as temperatures rise and the Islamic Guidance Patrols are on the lookout for citizens who might be persuaded by the heat to ignore -- more than usual -- Iran's dress code. This summer's different. In the pause between the June 14 election of a new president, Hassan Rohani, and the Aug. 3 exit of the old, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the green and white vans of the fashion police are rare sights. Women, who are expected to conceal their hair and body shapes, are taking advantage." http://t.uani.com/1bLbldc

Opinion & Analysis

Amitai Etzioni in The National Interest: "Iran, a state that is known to support terrorists and insurgent groups, has its tentacles in several states throughout the Middle East. Trying to pry one loose, even if successful, will leave the others tightening their unwelcome grip. And the point of no return for stopping Iran's nuclear program is rapidly approaching, even according to the hyper-cautious President Obama. Indeed, in March Obama told an Israeli television station that it would take Iran 'over a year or so' to develop a nuclear weapon. The best way to deal with Iran's various attempts to dominate the Middle East is not to face it indirectly in one arena after another, but to go after the mainland. If Iran were defanged, Hezbollah's military arm would soon run out of funds and top-of-the-line weapons, forcing the organization to rely more on its political arm and thus become more of a Lebanese political party than a terrorist organization. And it would lose its capacity to checkmate other Lebanese parties and forces, especially the ethnically neutral and stabilizing Lebanese army. If Iran were defanged, Hezbollah would be forced to withdraw its forces from Syria, leaving Assad without a major source of arms, advisers and funds. The Iraqi Shia would be less emboldened, and might be more ready to come to terms with their Sunni compatriots. While Iran's influence in Iraq is limited, it does egg on the more extremist Shia wing. Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia would find it much easier to deal with Shia-driven violent dissent in their respective parts. In contrast, engaging indirectly in a proxy fight with Iran in Syria is a very tricky maneuver. As many have pointed out, it is not clear whom to support, what we can safely give them and whether whatever we do give them will suffice. As I warned in these spaces prior to Obama's announcement that he will provide some modicum of military aid to Syria, a weak response is worse than none at all. Given the poor training and infighting among the Syrian rebels and the strength of the combined forces supporting the Syrian regime, including Sunni militias (in addition to the national army) and Hezbollah, Assad may very well prevail. A weak performance by U.S.-backed groups will serve only to further embolden Iran and its various proxy fighters in Syria. And a larger involvement by the United States will not only antagonize Russia, but lead to it shipping more powerful weapons to Assad. The United States will have to engage Iran in any case if President Obama is to live up to his oft-repeated commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Granted, the election of a smiling 'moderate,' Hassan Rowhani, makes confronting Iran more difficult. The United States should hence give him a chance to withdraw Iranian support for terrorists, insurgents and tyrannical regimes and live up to Iran's commitments under the Nonproliferation Treaty. But if Iran's next president does not change its present course, we must face the possibility that the Middle East will be dominated by Iran and that more blood will be shed in Syria and elsewhere. This threat may only be stopped by going after the head of the creature, rather than each of the various tentacles that it is planting throughout the region." http://t.uani.com/1brHIPr

David Albright & Christina Walrond in ISIS: "Iran is expected to achieve a critical capability in mid-2014, which is defined as the technical capability to produce sufficient weapon-grade uranium from its safeguarded stocks of low enriched uranium for a nuclear explosive, without being detected.  Iran would achieve this capability principally by implementing its existing, firm plans to install thousands more IR-1 centrifuges, and perhaps a few thousand IR-2m centrifuges, at its declared Natanz and Fordow centrifuge sites.  Iran's criticality date could be achieved a few months earlier, if Iran successfully deploys and operates several thousand advanced centrifuges and continues installing thousands of IR-1 centrifuges.  A priority is preventing Iran from achieving a critical capability through sanctions, increased frequency of international inspections, and negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1dGYyqa

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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