Monday, July 15, 2013

Eye on Iran: U.S. to Seek Direct Nuclear Talks With Iran











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WSJ: "The Obama administration is preparing to communicate to Iran's president-elect its desire to hold direct negotiations in the coming weeks over Tehran's nuclear program, senior U.S. officials said. Since his election in June, Hasan Rouhani has sent positive signals both publicly and privately about his interest in engaging with the international community on the nuclear issue, according to Obama administration officials. Mr. Rouhani succeeds President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad early next month. Senior U.S. officials are meeting with representatives of the four other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, plus Germany, on Tuesday in Brussels to map out their coordinated approach to Mr. Rouhani and Tehran, these administration officials said. The White House is eager to quickly test Mr. Rouhani, an Iranian politician and Islamic cleric, to see if a diplomatic process can gain traction on his watch, according to U.S. officials." http://t.uani.com/1besPjt

AP: "Iran's president-elect on Monday leveled his first criticism of the outgoing administration since June's election, saying it has mismanaged the country's economy. Several newspapers quoted Hasan Rouhani as saying his team of experts see the government's economic assessments as sugar-coated, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as having left much work to be done. 'We asked current officials about the situation of the country but their reports and those of our teams were very far from each other,' he said in remarks published by the pro-reform Shargh daily. Despite Ahmadinejad's claims of creating hundreds of thousands of jobs, he added, only an average 14,000 were created annually over the 2006 to 2012 period. Inflation, he said, actually stands at 42 percent and not the officially reported 32 percent. On Sunday, the central bank put the rate at nearly 36 percent... 'Today, the country has a difficult and complicated situation partly because of domestic policies and partly because of unfair foreign pressures,' he said in the published remarks." http://t.uani.com/12PYBe8

WSJ: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, concerned that international focus on Iran's nuclear program is wavering, publicly pressed the Obama administration to take more aggressive actions against Tehran, including possible military strikes. Mr. Netanyahu's tough talk on a U.S. Sunday news program came as Israeli officials increasingly voice concerns that the presidential election in June of Hasan Rouhani, a relatively moderate cleric, is providing Tehran with breathing space to advance its nuclear program without facing retaliation from the West. Mr. Netanyahu warned Iran that its production of nuclear fuel is moving closer to a 'red line' that will prompt Israeli military strikes, with or without the backing of Washington. 'If sanctions don't work, then they have to know that you'll be prepared to take military action,' Mr. Netanyahu said of the U.S. on CBS's 'Face the Nation' show Sunday. 'You know, our clocks are ticking at a different pace. We're closer than the United States. We're more vulnerable,' the Israeli leader said. 'And, therefore, we'll have to address this question of how to stop Iran, perhaps before the United States does.'" http://t.uani.com/12Q0kAm
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Nuclear Program

LAT: "The Obama administration is rejecting calls for it to offer a bold diplomatic proposal to Iran in hopes of breaking the long stalemate over Tehran's controversial nuclear program. Despite the urging of some former top U.S. officials and foreign diplomats for an aggressive new U.S. initiative, a senior official said the administration would not revise its latest proposal and instead was looking for a more positive response from Iran's government, which will soon be led by the more moderate president-elect, Hassan Rouhani. 'We have a proposal on the table,' the American official, who did not want to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, told a group of reporters. 'We are waiting for a serious proposal back.... At the end of the day, the onus is on Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1aHGal0

Sanctions


Legal News Line: "Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Kilmartin announced Friday that his legislation to divest all state funds from Iran was signed into law by Gov. Lincoln Chafee. Rhode Island's Iran Divestiture Act, which was sponsored by Sen. Joshua Miller and Rep. Mia Ackerman, both Democrats, requires the state retirement board to determine all companies in which the public fund has direct or indirect holdings in companies with business operations in Iran within 90 days. The State Investment Commission then will send written notice of possible divestment to the identified companies with direct holdings. Within 90 days, the companies must cease scrutinized operations or convert them to inactive operations. If the companies fail to abide by the law within the designated time frame, the public fund will be left to divest the holdings according to a statutory schedule." http://t.uani.com/15HrLAD

Reuters: "South Korea's imports of crude from Iran fell 7 percent in June, against the daily average for the previous six months, less than half the rate Seoul has pledged it will cut oil shipments from the sanctions-hit country over the next six months. To meet its pledge to Washington, South Korea needs to import less than 126,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the June-November period, but June's daily rate came in at 138,157 bpd, based on calculations on import data from the Korea Customs Service on Monday. Countries that import Iranian oil must make continuous cuts to keep getting six-month waivers on U.S. sanctions aimed at cutting Iran's flow of oil money and forcing it to negotiate over curbing its disputed nuclear programme. South Korea promised to cut its Iranian oil imports by 15 percent from the daily rate seen from December 2012 to May 2013, two sources told Reuters last month." http://t.uani.com/18jj9Uv

WSJ: "A Canadian frozen yogurt franchise might seem like an entirely unusual conduit for Iran to evade hardening U.S. government sanctions. But among several companies the U.S. sanctioned in May for illicit dealings with Iran was a cold outlier: Niksima Food and Beverages, a firm based in Dubai that runs local outlets of Yogen Fruz, the Canadian frozen yogurt purveyor. While the ties between Iran's energy industry and frozen yogurt may appear tenuous at first glance, Niksima, the U.S. state department said, had accepted payments on behalf of Jam Petrochemicals Complex, a major petrochemical facility on Iran's southern coast that it is targeting as part of a new strategy aimed at curbing Iran's income from things like plastics and lubricants. As U.S. sanctions over Iran's disputed nuclear program deepen, the Niksima case points to growing evidence that the Islamic republic is using increasingly complex financial transactions and far-flung business partners to evade restrictions and keep its key industries humming. It also shows how the U.S., in turn, is becoming more vigilant about solving Iran's transactional riddles and penalizing those who aid it in avoiding sanctions. Niksima's penalty was a ban on transactions involving U.S. jurisdiction, effectively freezing the company out of the U.S. financial system." http://t.uani.com/12Dlq3Q

Syrian Civil War

Reuters: "Iraq is unable to stop its neighbor Iran transferring weapons to Syria through its airspace, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said in a newspaper interview published on Saturday. 'We reject and condemn the transfer of weapons through our airspace and we will inform the Iranian side of that formally. But we do not have the ability to stop it,' he told pan-Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat. Iran is the main ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who is fighting mostly Sunni rebels in a civil war in which more the opposition say more than 100,000 people have been killed. The United States, which wants Assad to relinquish power, has warned Iraq not to allow Iranian weapons flights to cross its airspace into Syria. But Zebari said he had told Western countries that if they wanted to stop such flights, they had to help do so themselves." http://t.uani.com/15elL07

Human Rights

AP: "An ex-Marine held in Iran for nearly two years is faring much better these days - meeting with family members, exercising and being given access to books, his sister said Friday. Sarah Hekmati told The Associated Press on Friday that she and other members of Amir Hekmati's family 'feel really optimistic' as a result of the recent developments, which also include positive conversations they have had with his lawyer. Amir Hekmati's family says he went to Iran in 2011 to visit his grandmothers. Iran, however, accused Hekmati of spying, and he was sentenced to death. That sentenced later was overturned. U.S. officials have denied the spying charge." http://t.uani.com/10VqKDj

Domestic Politics

WSJ: "It's no secret that Iranian authorities don't trust or like the Internet. This week, the Islamic Republic inaugurated the national email. A government assigned email address linked to your social security number that makes it easy to trace users and monitor their communication. The minister of telecommunication and information technology, Mohamad Hassan Nami, even said on Tuesday that every Iranian 'must' register for a nation email address upon entering elementary school. He added that official communication between government and citizens would eventually be redirected through the national email service... This is all being presented to the public as a project aimed to increase the security of the Internet and protect users against foreign enemy and criminal hackers. Banks for example are now obliged to only accept their client's email address if it's through a domestic provider." http://t.uani.com/17eJyOC

NYT: "Iranian lawmakers said Sunday that the country's intelligence minister should be questioned in Parliament after newly installed wiretapping equipment was discovered in a legislator's Tehran office, local news media reported. Ali Motahari, a member of Parliament, revealed the discovery on Thursday on his personal Web site, Alimotahari.ir. His Web site was initially blocked after he posted the item, but it was accessible again on Sunday. Government insiders say that Mr. Motahari is a top candidate to become minister of culture and Islamic guidance in the cabinet of President-elect Hassan Rowhani... Several lawmakers on Sunday called for a public hearing to question Heydar Moslehi, the intelligence minister, who is aligned with Iran's powerful alliance of hard-line clerics and commanders of the Revolutionary Guards." http://t.uani.com/1betjWD

FT: "Not long after Iran's June election, the president-elect, Hassan Rohani, and outgoing president Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad both visited the holy city of Qom - home to 50,000 scholars and the biggest centre of Shia scholarship in the Islamic world. While Qom's senior clergy laid out the red carpet for Mr Rohani, a cleric, Mr Ahmadi-Nejad visited some low-key development projects but did not meet any members of the religious establishment. The welcome Mr Rohani received in Qom reflects the clergy's relief after eight years of Mr Ahmadi-Nejad's rule, during which they had been sidelined as other conservative institutions, notably the Revolutionary Guards, an elite military unit with vast political and economic interests, saw their influence grow." http://t.uani.com/11PePcM

FT: "Welcome to the rarefied world of the Iranian elite, the tiny proportion of the country's 75m population that has managed to thrive despite international sanctions that have seen ordinary Iranians struggle with a weak currency, rising inflation and stubborn unemployment. While the capital once boasted just a handful of fine restaurants popular with foreign diplomats and Iranian expatriates, over the past year more than a dozen new restaurants have opened and most of the diners are Iranian... 'The new restaurants are to address the demand of a class who drive Porsches, wear suits worth €20,000 and need to eat out,' said Saeed Leylaz, an economic analyst. 'The government of [outgoing president Mahmoud] Ahmadi-Nejad created this political class but now they are only loyal to their wealth and want to have peace.' These people, who make up about 1 per cent of Tehran's population of 12m, have the kind of wealth enviable not just by Iranian but also by international standards, said Bernard Ezraeelian, who manages Leon restaurant. They have the kind of lifestyle that means they can enjoy restaurant food most nights of the week, he said." http://t.uani.com/1amLdnj

Reuters: "A senior Iranian diplomat linked to Iran's reformists was released from a Tehran prison on bail on Sunday after four months in detention, sources familiar with the case said. Bagher Asadi, who has been a senior diplomat at Iran's U.N. mission in New York and was recently a director at the secretariat of the so-called D8 group of developing nations in Istanbul, was arrested in mid-March in the Iranian capital, the sources told Reuters in April. The same sources, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that an Iranian media report published on Sunday about Asadi's release was accurate. They said it remained unclear why he was arrested in the first place and what the status is of the case against him. The sources said they doubted Asadi's release from prison represented a move by Iranian authorities to relax what analysts and Western diplomats have described as a crackdown on dissidents in Iran ahead of the June presidential election." http://t.uani.com/12AqdHX

Foreign Affairs

Free Beacon: "A bipartisan delegation of House lawmakers have petitioned Secretary of State John Kerry to reconsider the level of aid given to Argentina following revelations that the Latin American country has opened it doors to Iran. 'We are particularly troubled by Argentina's growing ties with Iran, utter contempt for U.S. law, growing corruption within its government, and repeated failure to met its financial obligations,' the lawmakers wrote on Thursday to Kerry, according to a copy of the letter obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. U.S. officials and regional experts warned earlier this week that under the leadership of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Argentina has helped Iran bring its terrorist activities to the Western hemisphere. The lawmakers-including House Homeland Security Chairman Michael McCaul (R., Texas), Reps. Jeff Duncan (R., S.C.), Grace Meng (D., N.Y.), Michael Grimm (R., N.Y.), and Bill Posey (R., Fla.)-urged Kerry to immediately cut back U.S. support for Argentina." http://t.uani.com/12ArXkx

Opinion & Analysis

Mark Fitzpatrick in IISS: "The election of the pragmatic Hassan Rowhani has is no way alleviated Israeli concerns about Iran's nuclear programme. This was the main take-away from a visit to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem this past week with Survival editor Dana Allin. For every optimist comment we heard, a half dozen reasons were advanced for pessimism. Apart from two Israelis who have personal experience in Iran, our interlocutors offered a series of riffs on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's post-election warning that the West should not be taken in by appearances: Rowhani is a regime insider, who in any case is second fiddle to a grumpy old man; sanctions pressure must be tightened; engagement is not an end in itself; neither, for that matter, is a diplomatic deal unless it eliminates a latent capability to produce nuclear weapons. Our four-day visit was book-ended by the Internet publication of two attention-grabbing commentaries, one by an Iranian who may be re-joining Rowhani's circle and one by an American who just left Obama's team. The first, by Hossein Mousavian, which came out in English the day after we arrived, suggested that Iran's best option may be to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and instead abide solely by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear weapons as a means of guaranteeing a non-nuclear status. The second, by former State Department senior advisor Robert Einhorn, which appeared the day of our last meetings, suggested that the US and its negotiating partners should change tactics and take advantage of Rowhani's election by considering a comprehensive proposal involving sanctions relief. Mousavian's article was seen as a window to Rowhani's aims, which most Israeli strategists already view with deep suspicion. It was noted how, in a 2004 speech, Rowhani held up Pakistan's nuclear weapons determination as an example of why Iran should not give up its quest for a full nuclear-fuel cycle. Threats to leave the NPT have already been voiced by senior members of Parliament and by Iran's ambassador in Vienna. Although Mousavian wrote the article several weeks before the election and insists it had nothing to do with Rowhani, the NPT withdrawal idea has now become associated with the president-elect. Mousavian was a key member of Rowhani's nuclear negotiating team from 2003-2005 and worked in Rowhani's think tank afterwards. He is rumoured to be under consideration for a senior position in the new government. Mousavian's purpose, surely, was to hold out the threat of NPT withdrawal as leverage to push the West for diplomatic concessions. He knows that NPT withdrawal would be seen as a de facto declaration of nuclear weapons intention, akin to North Korea. But such subtlety was lost on at least one of our Israeli friends, who advised that we take Mousavian's threat at face value - and to ignore the fatwa, which holds no weight in Jerusalem. Just as Mousavian's thesis confirmed Israel's worst-case perceptions of Rowhani, Einhorn's thesis may have confirmed their worries about the West being deluded by best-case thinking. Nobody criticised Einhorn directly; they remain respectful of his long-time role in applying non-proliferation rules vis-à-vis Iran and his most recent assignment in strengthening sanctions. In meetings that took place before his article came out, however, we heard ample arguments for not going wobbly. One senior official even said that if the Iranians offer a small compromise, the proper negotiating tactic in response should be to raise demands even higher, so as to show that they should have taken the deal previously offered. The role of bad cop comes easily." http://t.uani.com/11Qu711

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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