Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Eye on Iran: Suicide Bombings Kill 23 Near Iran Embassy in Beirut







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Reuters:
"Two suicide bombings rocked Iran's embassy compound in Lebanon on Tuesday, killing at least 23 people including an Iranian cultural attaché and hurling bodies and burning wreckage across a debris-strewn street. A Lebanon-based al Qaeda-linked group, the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, claimed responsibility and threatened further attacks unless Iran withdraw forces from Syria, where they have backed President Bashar al-Assad's 2-1/2-year-old war against rebels. Security camera footage showed a man in an explosives belt rushing towards the outer wall of the embassy before blowing himself up, Lebanese officials said. They said a car bomb parked two buildings away from the compound had caused the second, deadlier explosion. The Lebanese army, however, said both blasts were suicide attacks. In a Twitter post, Sheikh Sirajeddine Zuraiqat, the religious guide of the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, said the group had carried out the attack... Shi'ite Iran actively supports Assad against mostly Sunni rebels - two of its Revolutionary Guard commanders have been killed in Syria this year - and, along with Hezbollah fighters, it has helped turn the tide in Assad's favor at the expense of rebels backed and armed by Sunni powers Saudi Arabia and Qatar." http://t.uani.com/18kIgEN

AFP: "Tehran accused Israel of carrying out deadly double blasts on Tuesday outside the Islamic republic's embassy in Beirut that killed two Iranians, including a diplomat, according to media reports. The bombings were 'an inhuman crime and spiteful act done by Zionists and their mercenaries,' foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said in remarks carried by the official IRNA news agency... Afkham also confirmed that Iran's cultural attache Ibrahim Ansari, a mid-ranking Shiite cleric, was killed in the bombings. In Tehran, state television and the Mehr and Fars news agencies said the second Iranian killed in the blasts was a security guard who had been manning the embassy's gate." http://t.uani.com/17kG3Zn

Reuters: "Iranian parliamentarians gathered signatures on Tuesday to demand that the government carry on enriching uranium to levels of 20 percent, a move that could complicate nuclear talks between Iran and world powers in Geneva this week... 'On the eve of the Geneva talks, we plan to approve such a proposal in parliament. Based on that the government is obliged to protect the nuclear rights of Iran in the forthcoming negotiations,' Mehr news agency quoted member of parliament Fatemeh Alia as saying. Another MP, Mehdi Mousavinejad, said the measure would require the government to maintain enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, complete the nuclear fuel cycle and finish construction of the Arak heavy water reactor... On Monday, French President Francois Hollande set out a tough stance against Iran during a visit to Israel, saying he would not give way on nuclear proliferation. His remarks came in for criticism on Tuesday from an Iranian parliamentary official. 'We advise the president of France to comment on the basis of facts, not assumptions, and beyond that, not to be the executor of the Zionist regime's (Israel's) plan,' Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the head of the assembly's national security and foreign affairs committee told its official news agency." http://t.uani.com/I2KEqf

Reuters: "Legislation to impose tough new sanctions on Iran is not expected to come to a vote in the Senate before December, after the end of the next round of negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, U.S. lawmakers and congressional aides said on Monday. As diplomats headed to Geneva for a third round of talks this week, members of Congress have been debating behind closed doors whether to go ahead with the new set of stricter economic sanctions on Iran relating to its nuclear program. President Barack Obama has asked Congress to hold off on more sanctions to allow time to pursue a diplomatic deal. The Senate Banking Committee, which had been expected to vote on a stand-alone sanctions bill by September, delayed such action at the Obama administration's request. Frustrated by the committee's failure to move ahead, several Republicans have said they were considering proposing new sanctions on Iran as an amendment to a defense authorization bill the Senate is debating this week. But lawmakers and aides said on Monday no such action was expected until after senators come back on Dec. 2 from next week's Thanksgiving recess. 'I don't see anything happening until we get back,' Senator Bob Corker, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a Banking Committee member, told reporters. Democratic Senator Tim Johnson, the banking panel's chairman, declined comment on when the committee might consider the stand-alone sanctions package." http://t.uani.com/17I2AMC
Nuclear Negotiations

AFP: "US Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday sought to play down hopes that a deal on Iran's nuclear program could be reached before the end of the week. 'I have no specific expectations with respect to the negotiations in Geneva except that we will negotiate in good faith,' Kerry said, after meeting with his Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu. 'We will try to get a first step agreement and hope that Iran will understand the importance of coming there prepared to create a document that can prove to the world that this is a peaceful program.' ... Kerry, who will be represented by his deputy Wendy Sherman, said he had to be in Washington on Thursday for a congressional hearing. But he did not rule out arranging a last minute flight to Geneva if a deal appeared in the offing, as he did earlier in the month. 'We'll see what develops, as to whether or not we can get close, and get this done,' Kerry added." http://t.uani.com/1fcvhJp

Trend: "Spokesman of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Behrouz Kamalvandi has dismissed any 'decline or shutdown' in Iran's nuclear activities, ISNA news agency reported on Nov. 18. He went on to note that Iran's nuclear facilities have not decreased activity. Activity cannot be judged by only a few months of investigations, Kamalvandi added. On November 14, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released its quarterly report on Iran's nuclear program. According to the report, Iran has stopped expanding its uranium enrichment capacity since Hassan Rouhani became president." http://t.uani.com/1irr98n

The Witness (South Africa): "A shopping bag filled with stolen uranium has been seized in a sting operation in Durban, triggering alarm among local and international nuclear watchdog agencies. The kilogram of the radioactive material confiscated is believed to be a mere sample from a much larger batch, for which police are now hunting. In a joint operation involving the Durban organised crime unit, crime intelligence and the department of minerals and energy, two men were arrested in their car opposite a shopping centre on the Bluff, following an informant's tip-off... On Monday, a major anti-nuclear weapons lobby group in the US - United Against a Nuclear Iran (UANI) - voiced concern at the seizure, due to its general suspicions that Iran could be behind the smuggling of fissile materials from Africa. Spokesperson Nathan Carleton told The Witness: 'This is highly concerning. South Africa must be vigilant in policing such activities, as Iran does not play by the same rules that other world powers do.'" http://t.uani.com/185E2D4

Sanctions

AFP: "President Barack Obama will personally urge powerful US senators Tuesday to hold off on imposing more sanctions on Iran, to allow high stakes nuclear talks to succeed. Obama will meet leading members of key Senate committees on the eve of the next round of talks between world powers and Iran in Geneva aimed at clinching an interim deal to boost diplomacy on ending a nuclear showdown. The talks come as hawks on Capitol Hill in both parties mull slapping extra sanctions on Iran, reasoning that painful economic punishments prompted Tehran to negotiate and extra pain could prod it to capitulate... 'It's the president's view that it's the right thing to do for Congress to pause so that we can test whether or not the Iranians are serious about resolving this issue diplomatically,' White House spokesman Jay Carney said." http://t.uani.com/1aplcoY

WSJ: "Iran's national gas company said it is facing collapse, the latest sign of deepening economic distress from international sanctions as Tehran seeks urgent relief in talks with world powers. The chief executive officer of state-owned National Iranian Gas Company, Hamid Reza Araghi, said over the weekend that the company has declared bankruptcy, according to the semiofficial Mehr news agency. The report said the company had a debt of 100 trillion rials, or about $4 billion. The company tried to backtrack on the comments Monday. Majid Boujarzadeh, a spokesman reached by phone, denied it was bankrupt. But media reports also quoted Iran's oil minister, Bijan Zangeneh, as saying the gas company 'is destroyed.' ... 'Iran's economy is out of breath,' said Fereydoun Khavand, an economist and Iran expert based in Paris. 'They've always had mismanagement, but they were able to ward it off with oil revenues. Now their pockets are emptying out fast.'" http://t.uani.com/1bXY8wa

Human Rights


NYT: "The family of Amir Hekmati, a former American Marine who has been incarcerated in Iran for more than two years even though his espionage conviction was overturned, has been contacted by the United Nations for details on his case, Mr. Hekmati's sister said Monday. The sister, Sarah Hekmati, said that representatives from the United Nations human rights agency had reached out to her in recent weeks. The Iranian government has not explained why it has continued to hold Mr. Hekmati, an American of Iranian descent who was taken into custody while on a visit to see his maternal grandmother and other relatives in 2011. Mr. Hekmati, 30, disappeared for three months, and then was charged with espionage, tried and sentenced to death. The verdict was overturned and a new trial was ordered in March 2012. But that retrial has never happened, and the charges against him - if any remain - have never been stated by the Iranian judicial authorities. Mr. Hekmati and his family have repeatedly said he is innocent of any wrongdoing and do not understand why he was ever arrested." http://t.uani.com/1h0q0p2
Opinion & Analysis

WashPost Editorial: "For the war-weary United States, a deal that halts Iran's progress toward a nuclear weapon in exchange for partial sanctions relief, which the Obama administration hopes to conclude this week, would greatly reduce the possibility that the United States would be forced to take military action against Iran in the coming months. That risk has been growing because of Tehran's installation of a new generation of centrifuges for uranium enrichment and because of the approaching completion of a reactor that could produce plutonium. If a long-term accord can be struck during a planned negotiating period of six months, the dangers of a new Middle East war and an Iranian bomb could be alleviated. Israel, of course, also wishes to avoid war. But Israeli leaders have more to fear than do Americans from a bargain that leaves the bulk of the Iranian nuclear infrastructure in place, even temporarily. If no final settlement were reached, and the larger sanctions regime began to crumble - as the Israelis fear it would - Iran could be left with a nuclear breakout capacity as well as a revived economy. From Israel's point of view, keeping sanctions in place until Iran agrees to a definitive compromise - or its regime buckles - looks like a safer bet. But even a permanent settlement would be unattractive to Israel if it meant that the United States would step back from the regional conflict spawned by Iran's decades-old effort to gain hegemony over the Middle East. Like Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab governments, Israel does not wish to be left alone to face Iranian aggression in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon or its terrorist activities across the region... Rather than argue in public, U.S. and Israeli officials should be working to forge a consensus on the terms of an acceptable final settlement with Iran. There, differences may not be as great: While Mr. Netanyahu campaigns for a permanent end to Iranian enrichment, a large reduction in Iran's nuclear capacity, combined with more intrusive inspections, would leave Israel far more secure than at present. At the same time, the Obama administration ought to be assuring Israel and Arab allies that it will continue to reject Iran's regional ambitions, respond to its aggressive acts and support the aspirations of Iranians for a democratic regime that respects human rights. With such understandings in place, the U.S.-Israeli argument would be manageable." http://t.uani.com/1bAM9CR

Simon Henderson & Olli Heinonen in WINEP: "The International Atomic Energy Agency's latest report on Iran's nuclear program, released November 14, has generated a profusion of optimistic news reports and editorials. According to the IAEA, Tehran has not increased the number of centrifuges installed at declared installations or put more advanced centrifuges into operation, and its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium hexafluoride remains below a crucial red line. Meanwhile, work has been proceeding slowly at the Arak reactor, which will be capable of producing plutonium, an alternative nuclear explosive. And three days before releasing the report, the IAEA announced that Iran had agreed to give the agency access to information on some previously blocked aspects of its nuclear program. Much less emphasized in the report, and the coverage of it, are the IAEA's persistent suspicions of Iran's true motives, as detailed under the heading 'Possible Military Dimensions.' As page 10 of the thirteen-page report noted, 'Since 2002, the Agency has become increasingly concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear related organizations, including activities related to the development of a payload for a missile.' The agency also received information indicating that Iran has carried out activities 'relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device.' The report deemed this intelligence to be 'credible,' noting that the IAEA has obtained more information since November 2011 that 'further corroborates' its analysis. In addition, the report states that Iran 'has dismissed the Agency's concerns' and 'considers them to be based on unfounded allegations.' Accordingly, Tehran is still not answering the IAEA's detailed questions or providing access to the Parchin site just outside the capital, where it may have had an installation capable of testing conventional explosives for possible use in an implosion-type atomic bomb. Theoretically, one could argue that Tehran's obstinacy is in line with its narrative that the Iranian nuclear program is, and always has been, for peaceful purposes only. The government's view of nuclear energy is explained at length in a new, apparently official, website, which reiterates Iran's intention to master all aspects of the nuclear cycle and maintain a very extensive civil nuclear power-generating program. Yet even apart from the strong evidence of 'possible military dimensions,' this approach to energy development seems odd for a country with the world's fourth-largest oil reserves and second-largest natural gas reserves, but fairly limited uranium resources. In the longer term, the apparent aim of current diplomacy is to make sure that Iran's nuclear activities are kept under a stringent safeguards regime. Yet any such system requires clarity about what Iran has done and may still be doing clandestinely, not only to allow for eventual implementation of a deal, but also to mitigate the concerns of U.S. regional allies who are apprehensive about making concessions to Iran... Therefore, a new interim agreement cannot be implemented unless Tehran declares all of its current and past enrichment locations, all of the centrifuges it has manufactured and installed, and all of its nuclear material holdings, including yellowcake. It must also provide information about the manufacture of remaining components for the Arak heavy-water reactor. As talks continue in Geneva this week, negotiators should focus on these and other disclosure issues in order to maximize international confidence in the diplomatic track and avoid making premature concessions to Tehran that could prove difficult to rescind. Looking at the bigger picture, the credibility of the global nonproliferation system is at stake, as is the UN Security Council's authority to enforce its resolutions." http://t.uani.com/I2NsUl

David Sanger & Jodi Rudoren in NYT: "To the Israeli government, the preliminary deal with Iran that the Obama administration is trying to seal this week is a giveaway to a government that has spent two decades building a vast nuclear program. It enshrines the status quo - at a time when the Iranians are within reach of the technical capability to build a bomb - and rewards some unproven leaders with cash and sanctions relief. President Obama and his top aides see the same draft deal in sharply different terms. To them, it is a first effort to freeze the Iranian program, to buy some time to negotiate a more ambitious deal, and to stop two separate methods of developing a bomb, one involving uranium, the other plutonium. In return, the Iranians get modest relief from sanctions, but not what they desperately desire, the ability to again sell oil around the world. That would come only later as part of a final agreement that would require the Iranians to dismantle much of their nuclear infrastructure.  Those two divergent views have deeply politicized the question of whether the accord that the United States and its European allies are considering should be termed a good deal or a bad one. It is a fundamental disagreement that has left in tatters whatever halfhearted efforts Mr. Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel have made over the past five years to argue that they are on the same page when it comes to Iran... Yet the disagreement is about far more than negotiating tactics. In interviews, both American and Israeli officials conceded that the terms of the preliminary accord reflect a difference in fundamental goals. Mr. Obama speaks often of his determination to prevent Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon; Mr. Netanyahu sets a far higher bar of preventing Iran from gaining, or keeping, the capability to ever build one... The White House, alarmed by Mr. Netanyahu's outspoken opposition and by an effort in Congress to enact a new round of sanctions on Iran that Israel supports, is trying to shore up its own arguments. Mr. Obama is bringing the leaders and ranking members of the Senate foreign relations, intelligence, armed services and banking committees to the White House on Tuesday to make the case that if Iran is going to be coaxed into a deal, the country's new leaders must go home with some modest appetizer of sanctions relief - as an indication that the United States is ready to deal... The details of the proposed agreement have been closely held by the administration - and, the Israelis claim, from Jerusalem - but what is known about the deal gives both sides plenty of talking points. While the Americans say it "freezes" the Iranian program and rolls it back, the fact is that only some elements are frozen, and the rollbacks in the initial agreement are relatively minor. For example, Iran would continue adding to its stockpile of low-enriched uranium, meaning uranium enriched to reactor grade, or less than 5 percent purity. But the United States maintains that under details of the agreement it cannot yet disclose, the overall size of Iran's stockpile would not increase. The reason appears to be that Iran would agree to convert some of its medium-enriched uranium - fuel enriched to 20 percent purity, or near bomb grade - into an oxide form that is on the way to becoming reactor fuel. But that process can be easily reversed, notes Olli Heinonen, the former chief inspector of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Mr. Netanyahu's camp and some Israeli analysts say the Israeli leader's unstinting opposition is both substantive and political. He truly believes that a deal lifting sanctions without fully halting enrichment and dismantling centrifuges is a terrible mistake. But he has also staked his premiership on fighting the Iranian nuclear threat, and the change in approach by his closest allies leaves him a bit rudderless... There are also different accounts of what would happen to a heavy-water nuclear reactor now under construction near the town of Arak. The facility is critical to Iran's plans because, if operating, it could provide it with a steady supply of plutonium, the fuel North Korea and now Pakistan have used for their arsenals. France stepped into the negotiations 10 days ago complaining that the draft accord would allow Iran to get too close to being able to insert fuel into that reactor - at which point it could not be bombed by Israel without risking a radioactive, environmental disaster. The proposed agreement has since been modified, American officials say, to make sure that Iran is months to a year from being able to put fuel in the reactor. To the United States, that is plenty of warning time but the Israelis want the plant taken apart, and the parts shipped out of the country." http://t.uani.com/I16cD9

Emily Landau in Haaretz: "For years, those who have negotiated on behalf of the international community with Iran on the nuclear issue have suffered a debilitating weakness at the table due to their dependence on a negotiated settlement in order to achieve their goal of stopping Iran. All the while, Iran itself was never similarly tied to a negotiated deal, and could move unilaterally to its goal. For a long time this enabled Iran to use negotiations tactically in order to play for time, while simultaneously pushing forward its nuclear program. For the first time, this situation is changing. The latest talks underscore that the impact of biting sanctions has made Iran also dependent on a negotiated settlement. It cannot get desperately needed sanctions relief without cooperating with the international community, a fact which should strengthen the hand of the P5+1 negotiators. In the last round there were some indications that these states were indeed assuming the lead. For example, discussion focused on a P5+1 proposal, rather than Zarif's PowerPoint presentation from mid-October. And once France's reservations were incorporated into the P5+1 draft, they were quickly approved by all six parties, leaving no internal divisions for Iran to exploit. So why is the Obama administration adamantly opposing further pressure on Iran? Kerry insists that if new sanctions are passed by Congress they would be viewed as bad faith by the Iranians, destroy the prospect of getting an agreement, and could even lead to military confrontation, presumably by pushing Iran to make a dash to the bomb. These concerns are an exaggeration. Similar fears were raised before the biting 2012 sanctions were put in place, but they did not push Iran to exit the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons; rather, the pressure brought Iran back to the table, in line with its rational cost-benefit approach on the nuclear front. Indeed, the most likely result of further pressure would be Iran's realization that it is not only dependent on the P5+1 for the relief it seeks, but that the pressure card will continue to be played. This would actually enhance the ability of the P5+1 to get the deal they want. Moreover, in the highly unlikely event that Iran were to react by rushing to the bomb, the regime would expose itself as having lied and cheated all along. Iran knows that this could trigger military action, in line with declared U.S. policy. Clearly the United States greatly fears being put in a position where it would have no choice but to strike Iran militarily, but giving voice to this fear unfortunately risks weakening its hand, just at the time when it has finally become stronger. The United States is also concerned, as Kerry noted, that additional sanctions could wind up setting the United States back in dialogue that is has taken 30 years to achieve. But American concerns about squandering the long-term prospect of a changed bilateral U.S.-Iranian relationship should not interfere with the immediate focus on the nuclear file. Iran is currently looking for a deal that will allow it to regain economic viability, while not giving up its ability to move toward a military nuclear capability. The original clause on Arak - that would have prevented Iran from commissioning the facility for six months, but would have allowed for continued construction work - is Iran's tactic in a nutshell. To make 'concessions' that are not concessions at all, because Iran was not on track to commission the facility in the next six months, but certainly wanted to be able to continue construction work so that it would be ready to do so later in 2014. And in return, to get sanctions lifted. The only chance the P5+1 have to get the nuclear deal they want is by keeping Iran dependent on a negotiated deal for the sanctions relief they desperately need. It's the last chance for a good deal, and the P5+1 should not surrender any of the leverage they have worked so hard to gain, before getting the results they seek. These states are today collectively much stronger than they might realize; it would be a grave mistake to succumb to unrealistic fears when steadfast determination is the order of the day." http://t.uani.com/1hUAyY2

Douglas Feith in WSJ: "President Obama wants Iran to suspend parts of its nuclear program in return for easing international economic sanctions. Critics contend that if the West strikes a deal along these lines, Iran could cheat far more easily than the rest of the world could reinstate tough sanctions. But Mr. Obama insists that relaxing sanctions is reversible: If the Iranians are 'not following through,' he recently told NBC News, 'We can crank that dial back up.' Peace and arms-control agreements have a long history that warns against such assurances. Democratic countries have time and again failed to get what they bargained for with their undemocratic antagonists-and then found themselves unable or unwilling to enforce the bargain. After World War I, the Versailles and Locarno Treaties subjected Germany to arms-control measures, including demilitarization of the Rhineland. When Germany's Nazi regime boldly remilitarized the Rhineland in 1936, neither Britain, France nor any other treaty party took enforcement action. This and other 20th-century incidents led U.S. strategist Fred Iklé to write a prescient 1961 'Foreign Affairs' article titled 'After Detection-What?' He argued: 'In entering into an arms-control agreement, we must know not only that we are technically capable of detecting a violation but also that we or the rest of the world will be politically, legally and militarily in a position to react effectively if a violation is discovered.' Iklé foresaw that the Soviets would violate their agreements, and that U.S. presidents would find it difficult or impossible to remedy the violations... What typically happens with such agreements is the following: On the democratic side, political leaders hype the agreement to their voters as a proud diplomatic achievement. The nondemocratic side-typically an aggressive, dishonest party-cheats.  The democratic leaders have no desire to detect the violation because they don't want to admit that they oversold the agreement or, for other reasons, they don't want to disrupt relations with the other side. If they can't ignore the violation, they will claim the evidence is inconclusive. But if it is conclusive, they will belittle the significance of the offense. Officials on the democratic side sometimes even act as de facto defense attorneys for the cheaters... An agreement that actually dismantled the Iranian nuclear program would be a formidable accomplishment. But if Mr. Obama can justify his deal with Iran only by promising to 'crank up' the relaxed sanctions if and when the Iranian regime cheats, no one should buy it. History teaches that we should expect the cheating, but not effective enforcement." http://t.uani.com/1fRVb2T

Reporters Without Borders: "Reporters Without Borders is very disappointed by President Hassan Rouhani's record on freedom of information during his first 100 days in office and again urges him to keep his promises to end abuse of authority, impunity and censorship. A moderate conservative backed by Iran's reformists, Rouhani was declared the first round's outright winner on 15 June and took office on 3 August. Iranians used the election to vote en masse against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's policies, which are blamed for the arbitrary arrest of more than 300 journalists and netizens and their torture by the intelligence services. Rouhani repeatedly said during his campaign that 'all the political prisoners should be released.' He also said on several occasions that he wanted a change 'in favour of free speech and media freedom.' These promises encouraged progressively-minded Iranians, especially young people and women, to give him their vote and make him the Islamic Republic's seventh president. Nonetheless, despite the release of some prisoners of conscience, Iran continues to be one of the world's biggest prisons for journalists and netizens, with around 50 currently detained. At least 10 more journalists and bloggers have been arrested since his election victory, 10 others have been sentenced to a combined total of 72 years in prison and three newspapers have been closed or forced to suspend publishing under pressure from the authorities." http://t.uani.com/1h0qX0F

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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