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NYT:
"President Obama said on Wednesday that he believed the United
States had "a credible way forward" in its nuclear
negotiations with Iran, and strongly suggested that after consultations
with Congress, which has been threatening additional sanctions, he would
seek an extension of the talks beyond Sunday's deadline. 'There are
still some significant gaps between the international community and
Iran,' he said in the White House press room, before announcing
additional sanctions on Russia, 'and we have more work to do.' Iran has
already signaled that it wants more time to negotiate, but Mr. Obama is
almost certain to run into opposition on Capitol Hill if he agrees to
it. Republicans and even some Democrats have argued that Tehran is
simply stalling... The Iranian proposal Mr. Kerry brought back to
Washington from Vienna, where he spent three days haggling with his
counterpart, Mohammad Javad Zarif, is widely judged as insufficient by
American officials and intelligence experts. They argue that it would
not give the West the minimum Mr. Kerry said last year was acceptable:
at least a year's warning time that Iran was racing to produce enough
bomb-grade fuel for a nuclear weapon - even if fabricating the weapon
itself would take longer. That is something of an arbitrary measure,
and, in the minds of many nuclear experts, a misleading one. There are
many pathways to a bomb. Iran could manufacture it in a covert
facility; so far, two such facilities have been discovered over the
past dozen years, and American intelligence agencies have compiled a
long list of 'suspect sites' they would like to know more about... In
fact, many of those who have studied Iran's nuclear program most
closely over the years say that if Iran ever decided to build a weapon,
it would not be foolish enough to obtain the fuel from well-known
facilities that are crawling with international nuclear inspectors.
'They would find another way,' said Gary Samore, who was Mr. Obama's
top adviser for countering unconventional weapons during the first term,
and now is president of an advocacy group called United Against Nuclear
Iran. But Mr. Samore quickly added that 'a deal must be measured on
some objective criteria,' and that in this case 'breakout time is what
is going to be used to measure this one.'" http://t.uani.com/1nAiHlP
Reuters:
"With talks between world powers and Iran over a broad nuclear
accord at an impasse, Western governments are considering offering a
significant easing of sanctions early on in the process to try to wring
concessions from Tehran, diplomats say. To be effective, such a plan
would have to involve clear guidance to companies made wary by U.S.
fines for sanctions-busting, be reversible and not go too far, or
skeptical U.S. lawmakers would simply reimpose restrictions... If there
is an agreement in the coming weeks or months, Western diplomats have
told Reuters, Iran might still have to wait years, or as long as two
decades, to see the complex web of sanctions permanently removed.
Instead, they said, Western states may opt for a patchwork of steps
suspending sanctions in various industries that can be easily
reinstated if Tehran reneges on its nuclear commitments. The extent of
these steps would match Iranian concessions. 'When Iran does something,
then we can respond with sanctions relief,' one said, speaking on
condition of anonymity. 'The whole process will take years.'" http://t.uani.com/1mksrjM
Reuters:
"Failure to solve Iran's nuclear dispute by a Sunday deadline may
dismay weary negotiators in Vienna and stir fresh Middle East tension,
but an extension of talks could reap political gains at home for the
Islamic Republic's supreme leader. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would like to
end the dispute - on favorable terms. But prolonging negotiations for a
few months would help reinforce his position within Iran's complex
power structure by delaying an easing of sanctions that is likely to
benefit liberal competitors at elections due early in 2016... If
Rouhani's administration secures a nuclear deal, and economic sanctions
start to ease as a result, Rouhani and some centrist and moderate
factions who follow him could well be rewarded at the ballot box, to
the detriment of other groups including security hawks close to
Khamenei." http://t.uani.com/1qhUUPs
Nuclear
Program & Negotiations
Reuters:
"Iran is believed to have started operating a long-delayed uranium
conversion plant which it needs to fulfil an interim nuclear agreement
reached with six world powers last year before it expires on Sunday,
diplomatic sources said... As one of the terms under the initial accord
that runs for six months until July 20, Iran is supposed to convert a
large amount of low-enriched uranium gas into an oxide form that would
be less suitable for processing into bomb material. To be able to do
that, it has been building a facility near the central city of Isfahan
for turning the gas into powder." http://t.uani.com/1oZYABT
Sanctions
Relief
Reuters:
"Iran wants to return to the non-oil shipbuilding market with a
$300 million potential order of 10 bulk carriers from Singapore-listed
shipbuilder Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings Ltd., which may be the
first such delivery in four years, people with knowledge of the matter
said. The order, which could be completed over the next few weeks,
involves 10 bulk carriers that would mainly used to accommodate Iran's
huge iron-ore imports as well as copper exports. The people said the
likely end-user of the 82,000-ton ships is Islamic Republic of Iran
Shipping Lines, the country's biggest bulk carrier in terms of
capacity. 'If finalized, the down payment will be handled by a
private-equity fund, but the ships will be used by IRISL,' one person
said." http://t.uani.com/1neC0Hl
Human Rights
Amnesty:
"The Iranian authorities must halt the execution of a young man
who was still a child at the time of his alleged crime, and reverse a
disturbing rise in the execution of juvenile offenders which has
resulted in at least eight individuals being put to death in the first
half of 2014, for crimes allegedly committed when they were below the age
of 18, Amnesty International urged today. Rasoul Holoumi, now 22, was
sentenced to death in October 2010 for the alleged killing of a boy
during a group-fight in 2009, when he was 17 years old. The execution
could be carried out at any time at the request of the victim's family,
under the Islamic law principle of qesas (retribution-in-kind). 'It is
cruel and inhumane to hang any person but it is particularly
reprehensible for Iran to do so when the person was a child at the time
of the alleged crime, and the execution takes place after a flawed
investigation process that violates fair trial standards,' said Hassiba
Hadj Sahraoui, Deputy Middle East and North Africa Programme Director
at Amnesty International. Iran is among a handful of countries that still
execute juvenile offenders. Amnesty International has recorded at least
eight juvenile executions in the first half of 2014; equivalent to the
total number of juvenile executions in Iran during the whole of
2013." http://t.uani.com/1tVFFNK
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI Advisory
Board Member Walter Russell Mead in The American Interest:
"Today, with the world in flames and Obama's foreign policy on the
receiving end of a lot of skepticism at home and abroad, success with
Iran remains the administration's most important single preoccupation,
and it is probably, in the President's mind, his single greatest hope
for turning around the growing perception that his foreign policy has
failed. For something as important to American security and regional
stability as the president's Iran initiative, it's surprising and a bit
discouraging that the press has covered it so poorly. The twists and
turns of the events have been covered, but even serious regular readers
of the major newspapers aren't getting the kind of analysis that would
help them understand what is going on here. It is not too late for a
serious national Iran conversation to begin, and there are three basic
questions that conversation needs to address. The first is the
simplest: Do the Iranian and U.S. bottom lines actually permit a
settlement on the nuclear deal? The gaps are narrowing as the July 20th
deadline for a deal approaches, but the picture is very hard to read.
The sides are still far apart on a number of issues, and both in DC and
in Tehran it isn't just the negotiators at the table who have to buy
the deal-it's those at home with tougher approaches. How many
concessions can Tehran's negotiators sell to the hardliners back home?
The same question can be asked regarding the Obama administration and
what its negotiators can sell to the US Congress, who ultimately must
ratify a deal (Iran wants the permanent repeal of some congressionally
imposed sanctions, which gives US opponents of the deal a lot of
leverage). This is the question that the press has by and large fixated
on, and it seems to be the question that has engaged the administration
most deeply as well. It appears unlikely that we will know the answer
for certain by the July 20 deadline for the current talks as it appears
that some kind of extension will be needed-we shall see. But although
this is the question the press has focused on the hardest, and the one
where the average intelligent reader of the major press outlets is most
likely to have a reasonable stock of information and analysis to work
with, it is not actually the biggest or most consequential of the
questions that hang over America's Iran policy at the moment. The
second question is if anything more pertinent, and it's one that the
press really should be addressing with more attention: Would a nuclear
deal open the way to a renewed Iranian drive for regional supremacy?
The Sunni-Shi'a war now embroiling the Middle East is in part a war of
Iranian power expansion. With the overthrow of Saddam and the collapse
of Sunni hegemony in Iraq, followed up by the failure of the US to
build a strong non-sectarian Iraq and, more broadly, to to build a
strong non-radical Sunni counterweight to Iran in the region, Iran is
on the brink of a possessing a kind of regional power that the Shah could
only dream about. Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are all subject to enormous
and growing Iranian influence. Shi'a populations in strategically vital
gulf countries (a majority in Bahrain, a large and important minority
in others, including Saudi Arabia) are politically restive and
attracted by Iran's power. The removal of economic sanctions would be a
huge boost for Iran's economy; It would increase its regional influence
directly through growing economic links and, perhaps even more
significantly, it would massively increase the resources that the
Iranian state can devote to the proxy wars and to its regional clients
and allies by easing Iran's need to subsidize its own population and by
feeding the state increased revenues through higher tax revenues as the
economy rebounds... This brings us to the third question about the deal
that the press-and, one fears, the administration-is not taking up in
anything like the depth it demands: Is a real strategic rapprochement
between the US and the Iranian mullahs in the cards or are our
interests and objectives inherently too opposed to one another for more
than episodic and limited cooperation to take place against a long-term
background of rivalry and conflicting strategies?" http://t.uani.com/1zMxqUO
WashPost
Editorial: "In our view, prolonging the
negotiations is better than declaring a breakdown, which could lead to
a military conflict at a time when the United States is already
juggling multiple crises in the region and beyond. The preliminary
accord struck with Iran last fall, while far from perfect, has appeared
to succeed in curtailing Tehran's enrichment of uranium. Contrary to
predictions by Israel, the limited economic relief given in exchange
has not caused the overall sanctions regime to break down. Mr. Zarif's
maneuvering, however, supports two sobering conclusions. One is that
the Iranian regime is not feeling as much economic pressure as it was a
year ago and no longer sees the removal of sanctions as urgent. The
other is that Tehran is positioning itself in such a way that it will
be unable to make the concessions that should be required for a
long-term settlement without a major climb-down and accompanying loss
of face. While some headway appears to have been made on issues such as
Iran's construction of a reactor capable of producing plutonium and
terms for enhanced inspections, what looks like a nearly unbridgeable
gulf has opened on the critical issue of uranium enrichment. The United
States and its allies have sought a substantial reduction in Iran's stock
of 19,000 centrifuges , so that the time it would need to produce the
material for a bomb would be extended to at least six months to a year.
Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in contrast, appears to have
prohibited any dismantlement of existing infrastructure and delivered a
speech this month declaring that Iran needs 190,000 centrifuges. Mr.
Zarif said he was offering to extend the current controls on Iran's
enrichment - which freeze the current centrifuges in place and limit
the amount and quality of their production - for a few years in
exchange for the removal of sanctions. In addition to the problems that
would be posed by a time limit, the deal would leave in place a bomb
'breakout' capacity. That should be unacceptable. It's not inconceivable
that Iran's position will soften if talks continue. But the Obama
administration should reject any attempt by Mr. Zarif to obtain
concessions, such as increased oil sales, in exchange for an extension.
And it should begin seriously preparing for the moment when time runs
out - and when, as seems likely now, Iran refuses to yield." http://t.uani.com/1mQEElq
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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