Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Eye on Iran: Amid Differences, Israel's Netanyahu to Seek Reassurances from Obama on Iran









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Reuters: "President Barack Obama and Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu meet for a new round in their often-tense relationship on Wednesday, facing differences over Iran diplomacy and Middle East peace efforts as well as complications from the U.S.-led fight against Islamic State militants... Netanyahu has set Iran as his top priority in the White House talks. He will seek Obama's assurance that he will stick to his pledge that 'no deal is better than a bad deal' in Tehran's nuclear talks with world powers aimed at reaching a final agreement in November, an Israeli official said." http://t.uani.com/1uBgVdk

Trend: "The Head of Central Bank of Iran Valiollah Seyf said that the country's economy grew 4.6 percent in the first quarter of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21 - June 21) compared to the same period of the previous year. 'One percent of the mentioned figure is related to the tourism sector, and another 1.5 percent is related to the industry and mine sector' Seyf said, Iran's IRIB News Agency reported on September 30. A report released by the Central Bank of Iran also shows that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) reached 480,491 billion rials in the first quarter of the year. The figure was around 459,252 billion rials in the same period of the previous year. Iran's Vice President for Planning and Strategic Supervision Mohammad Baqer Nobakht said on September 1 that the country's economic growth will reach one percent in the first half of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21 - September 22)." http://t.uani.com/1qV9DcW

HRW: "Iran's judiciary should vacate the death sentence of Reyhaneh Jabbari and ensure that she receives a fair trial. She was convicted of murdering an older man in what she says was self defense. On September 29, 2014, prison authorities transferred Jabbari to a prison west of Tehran without explanation, raising fears that her execution was imminent, but then returned her to her original prison cell overnight." http://t.uani.com/YMmpEg

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

JTA: "A top Obama administration official said that a nuclear deal with Iran could start the way toward a possible resumption of ties. 'A nuclear agreement could begin a multi-generational process that could lead to a new relationship between our countries,' Philip Gordon, the White House coordinator for the Middle East, said in a speech Saturday to the National Iranian American Council. 'Iran could begin to reduce tensions with its neighbors and return to its rightful place in the community of nations.' Gordon made clear that Iran had much to do beyond reach a nuclear deal in order to remove its pariah status, but his casting a nuclear deal as part of a normalization process and not an end in itself represented a shift." http://t.uani.com/1rupLIM

Sanctions Relief

Trend: "A Chinese bus manufacturer has announced its readiness to enter Iran's market. China's Ankai Automobile Company representative said the company plans to identify and select an Iranian partner in order to launch an assembly line in the Islamic Republic, Iran's Mehr news agency reported on October 1. Ankai specializes in the production of buses, its products include urban buses, regular coaches, sleeping berth coaches, bus and coach chassis and automotive components. The company is ready to manufacture cars in Iran in CKD form (completely knock-down kit), the official said, adding that the Iranian partner will be introduced within the next two months." http://t.uani.com/1v4T0zm

Trend: "Iran's condensate export declined to below 0.2 million barrels per day during last month, indicating the lowest level since Iran reached an agreement with the P5+1 group, regarding its nuclear program. Iran's state IRNA Agency cited the Custom Administration that the country's total gas condensate exports during first half of current fiscal year (From March 21 to September 22) have reached 9, 233 thousand metric tons. The total condensate export during H1 of Iran's fiscal year experienced a 85 percent increase, compared to the same period during the previous year, according to IRNA. However, with comparing the volume of the last month with previous months since October 2013, the figure is the lowest." http://t.uani.com/10llonT

Human Rights

IHR: "Sources close to the dissident cleric Ayatollah Kazemeyni-Boroujerdi say that Mr. Boroujerdi has been transferred from his ward at the Evin prison (where he is being held) to an unknown location. According to these sources the prison officials had told him more than a week ago that he will be executed in the near future. Mr. Boroujerdi's family members are concerned the he might be at imminent danger of execution. Iran Human Rights (IHR) urges the international community to react to save Mr. Boroujerdi. Mahmood Amiry-Moghaddam, the spokesperson of IHR said: 'We take these reports seriously and ask the international community to react before it is too late.'" http://t.uani.com/1rLvZmE

Domestic Politics

Al-Monitor: "Iran's judiciary this month sentenced former First Vice President Mohammad Reza Rahimi to jail time for undisclosed corruption charges, the biggest scalp yet pulled from the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad cadre. Accusations of corruption in Iran rarely result in a conviction, unless there is a political interest in making them public. In this case, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who effectively controls the levers of justice in Iran, 'has permitted Rahimi's conviction, albeit without disclosing his crimes, to let out some steam and to try and convince the public that the system is taking corruption seriously,' a Tehran-based analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Al-Monitor. But Rahimi, a system insider, is unlikely to face serious reprimand - misuse of funds in Iran usually occurs with the help of or within powerful networks. He will likely have leverage to negotiate a lighter sentence with the judiciary." http://t.uani.com/1rumI3k

AFP: "Iran is to extend compulsory military service to two years because of a shortage of conscripts in the Islamic republic, the army said Tuesday. The decision to extend the term by three months from March results from a fall in the number of men aged 18, chief conscription officer General Moussa Kamali was quoted by state media as saying." http://t.uani.com/1runLjx

Opinion & Analysis

Greg Jones in NPEC: "The negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program have been extended to November 24, 2014 from the original July 20, 2014 deadline.  Recently there has been much discussion regarding the merits of various proposals relaxing the requirement that Iran restrict its centrifuge enrichment capacity.  It has been suggested that perhaps Iran would only reduce its number of centrifuges by 50% instead of 85% or that when Iran reduces its enrichment capacity, instead of removing the centrifuges entirely, it would just disconnect some of the piping.  However, these nuances are irrelevant to the stated purpose of the negotiations which is to produce an agreement that, 'when implemented, will ensure that Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon and that Iran's nuclear program is exclusively peaceful.'  The negotiations cannot achieve these goals since a centrifuge enrichment program can never be exclusively peaceful and the whole point of Iran's nuclear program is to provide the nuclear material needed for nuclear weapons.  Since Iran will be allowed to retain some centrifuge enrichment capacity and any agreement will be temporary, after the agreement has lapsed Iran will have an unrestricted centrifuge enrichment program. Even with the latest softening of the P5+1's negotiating position, given Iran's intransigence the negotiations are likely to fail anyway.  It is time for the P5+1 to toughen its stance and demand that Iran give up all centrifuge enrichment, dismantle the Arak reactor, and give up its heavy water stocks and dismantle its heavy water production facility.  Otherwise the P5+1 will be legitimizing nuclear facilities in Iran and many other countries that will make it easy for these countries to produce the nuclear material for nuclear weapons whenever they desire them... It is not too late for the P5+1 to demand that Iran give up all centrifuge enrichment, dismantle the Arak reactor, and give up its heavy water stocks and dismantle its heavy water production facility.  In the past, these demands have been considered to be showstoppers in the negotiations, but it is now clear that the supposedly more moderate demand that Iran reduce its centrifuge enrichment is just as much a showstopper.  With Iran calling Western demands 'illogical' and suggesting that it needs to expand its centrifuge enrichment capacity at least ten fold, it seems clear that the negotiations are likely to fail anyway.  At least by refusing to legitimize centrifuge enrichment and heavy water plutonium production reactors in Iran and many other countries, the U.S. will be doing no enduring harm to the current nonproliferation system, which is just what the current negotiations are set to do." http://t.uani.com/1vwOHhT
  

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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