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Western
Fear of Angering Turkey Leaves Besieged Kurdish Town at Mercy of Islamic
State
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Regional and global powers are indifferent to the fate of
the Kurds of Syria.
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The fate of the Kurdish enclave in Kobani appears to be sealed. The
greater part of the formerly Kurdish-ruled area has already fallen to the
forces of Islamic State. Some 9,000 Islamic State fighters are positioned
close to the last remaining redoubt – Kobani city itself. The black flag
of the Sunni Islamists is already flying in three neighborhoods of the
city.
On Monday, the Kurdish authorities ordered the evacuation of all
remaining civilians from the city. Journalists are not being permitted to
enter. The forces of the YPG (People's Protection Units) were preparing
to fight the jihadis for every street of the city.
However, not all civilians have been able to leave. If the city falls,
a slaughter is likely.
Islamic State has now integrated the heavy armor and artillery that it
took from the garrison in Mosul and from Syrian President Bashar Assad's
army in the bases of Division 17 and Tabaqa. The Kurds have only light
weapons, some machine guns, and a few rocket-propelled grenades.
The imminent fate of the Kobani enclave offers an object lesson in the
limited efficacy of courage and commitment (which the YPG has in
abundance), in the face of the indifference of regional and global powers
to the fate of the Kurds of Syria.
The Kurdish Regional Government of northern Iraq also received a
hammer blow from Islamic State in July and August. In early August, the
Iraqi Kurdish capital of Erbil looked set to suffer the same fate that
now seems inevitable in Kobani.
What saved the Iraqi Kurds was the swift application of US air power,
and a subsequent massive commitment of Western arms to the Peshmerga
forces of the KRG.
At present, the Peshmerga, in cooperation with Western special forces
and US air power, are seeking to turn back the advances the jihadis made
in the summer, with some success.
Turkish
hostility to the embryonic Kurdish autonomous zones in northern Syria
is the key to understanding Western and regional indifference to the
fate of Kobani.
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So what makes Kobani so very different from Erbil? The Syrian Kurdish
enclave is dominated by the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which is
closely associated with the Kurdish independence movement PKK. This
insurgent force is anathema to Turkey, against which it has fought since
1984. Turkey, ruled by the Islamist AKP, is a NATO member, and is still
considered an important and powerful ally of the US and the West.
Turkish hostility to the embryonic Kurdish autonomous zones in
northern Syria is the key to understanding Western and regional
indifference to the fate of Kobani. Turkish armor is currently waiting on
the border, facing Kobani, but no effort is being made to assist the
Kurdish fighters. Indeed, the Turks have acted to prevent Kurdish
volunteers from reaching the combat zone in recent days.
Some Western air strikes have been carried out in recent days, but
with little apparent effect.
The desire to appease Turkey, along with a determination to stay
outside of the Syrian conflict arena, explain the abandonment of Kobani.
Its loss, if it occurs, will form a legacy of bitterness for the
Kurds, which may lead to the collapse of the Turkish-PKK peace process
and will almost certainly lead to a renewed Kurdish militancy. A vivid
sense of betrayal will remain.
Jonathan Spyer is a senior research fellow at the Global Research
in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and a fellow at the Middle East
Forum.
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