Friday, November 21, 2014

Eye on Iran: Iran Nuclear Talks Stuck, Deadline May Be Extended: Officials








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Reuters: "A deadline for resolving a 12-year-old dispute over Iran's nuclear program may be extended from Monday until March because of sharp disagreements between Tehran and world powers, officials close to the talks said on Thursday... 'Some kind of interim agreement at this point is likely, or perhaps at best a framework agreement by Monday that needs to be worked out in the coming weeks and months,' a Western diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity. A senior Iranian official had similar expectations. 'We need more time to resolve technical issues and don't forget that the time frame for lifting sanctions is still a huge dispute,' the Iranian official said, adding that an extension until March was a possibility. Western officials also suggested March was an option, with a resumption of talks in January. The officials said, however, that Iran and the six were not actively discussing an extension yet and would push for a deal by the deadline, which has already been extended from July... 'The ball is in the Iranian camp and to be honest we have a feeling that we're treading water at the moment,' a senior Western diplomat said. 'The main obstacle is that the decisions have to be made by the Iranian leadership.'" http://t.uani.com/1yX6a3F

NYT: "As six world powers and Iran race to meet a Monday deadline for an agreement that would constrain Iran's nuclear program, the United States has staked out an ambitious goal for what an accord should accomplish. American officials say the agreement should slow the Iranian nuclear program enough that it would take Iran at least a year to make enough material for a nuclear bomb if it decided to ignore the accord. 'Our goal is to shut off each pathway sufficient that we know we have a breakout time of a minimum of a year,' Secretary of State John Kerry said last month... 'Enrichment time needs to be pushed to a year,' said Gary Samore, a former senior National Security Council official and president of an advocacy group called United Against Nuclear Iran. 'This is what they need to have in order to sell the deal to Congress and U.S. allies.' To achieve an adequate breakout time, American and other international negotiators initially proposed establishing a 1,500 limit on the number of basic centrifuges Iran would be allowed to operate while banning the use of more advanced centrifuges. Iran, however, has steadfastly refused to agree to a major reduction in centrifuges, although recently some Iranians have hinted that the number could be set at 8,000. More recently, negotiators have been exploring a formula in which Iran could have as many as 4,500 first-generation centrifuges if it also agreed to ship much of its low-enriched uranium to Russia or take other offsetting steps. For a considerable fee, Russia would convert the fuel into rods that would be burned in Iran's lone operating commercial power reactor." http://t.uani.com/1tacwca

WashPost: "Secretary of State John F. Kerry plunged into wide-ranging talks Friday over efforts to define limits on Iran's nuclear program, meeting with Iran's top diplomat then pulling back to confer with Western partners with a deadline just days away. Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, also planned to step away from the high-stakes negotiations in Vienna. Zarif was scheduled to return to Tehran for 'consultations and exchange of views with top officials,' said Iran's state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. Kerry, meanwhile, headed to Paris for strategy sessions with European allies as Monday's deadline loomed. It was unclear when Kerry would return to Vienna, said State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki, but he would remain in close contact with the negotiating team and others." http://t.uani.com/1v2wjPj

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Guardian: "But a former senior State Department official, involved in Middle East policy until only a few weeks ago, said it was now not 'physically possible' to conclude a comprehensive agreement in the time remaining. He argued that an extension of up to six months might be necessary... The official policy of the Americans and the Iranians at the Vienna talks has been to insist they were not discussing an extension, lest it remove the sense of urgency required for last-ditch concessions to make a deal. However, with the deadline looming, confidence behind the scenes about completing an agreement on time is beginning to ebb... 'Inevitably, there's going to be an extension. The question is just what kind of extension it is. Is it a major announcement, like a declaration of principles, where you basically outline all the key parameters that they work out; or is it something where they do nothing but just extend? ' said Ilan Goldenberg, a former senior State Department official, who left the government last month. 'The idea that they're actually going to work out all the details by next week is not physically possible. But if they have a declaration of principles or a framework that's essentially worked out, you've just got to get all the geeks and sit down and go through it in a very intensive way. But the idea that they'll walk out of there next week with a 40-page document that's worked out to the nth degree, that's not going to happen.' Goldenberg, who previously worked on Iran policy in the Pentagon, predicted the negotiations could be given up to an extra six months." http://t.uani.com/1yyNozt

Reuters: "Iran dismissed Western suspicions of atomic bomb research as 'wrong and fabricated' on Thursday and said it would be ready to prove this by giving the U.N. nuclear agency access to a site where explosives experiments allegedly had taken place. However, the main priority of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been to go to another location, the Parchin military facility southeast of Tehran, and not the western region of Marivan now offered by Iran. Tehran has so far refused access to Parchin. Iran's envoy made the statement to an IAEA board meeting after the European Union said it deeply regretted Iran's failure to address the U.N. agency's concerns... The 28-nation EU said in a statement at the IAEA meeting: 'The EU deeply regrets the lack of progress on PMD (possible military dimensions) issues.' Iranian Ambassador Reza Najafi said suspicions of illicit nuclear related activity were based on 'wrong and fabricated information as well as some forged documents full of mistakes'... To prove them wrong, Najafi said Iran would be ready to give the IAEA 'one managed access' to Marivan, a region mentioned in an IAEA report in 2011 on suspected activities by Iran that could be relevant for developing nuclear weapons." http://t.uani.com/1taaJnt

AFP: "EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini urged Iran to compromise in tense talks on its nuclear programme Thursday, saying Tehran must take a 'strategic decision' to win a landmark deal. The talks in Vienna between world powers and Iran had reached a 'decisive' stage as they push for a difficult arrangement by a deadline of next Monday, Mogherini said in a statement from Brussels. 'This is the time for Iran to take the strategic decision to open the way for a historic and final settlement of the nuclear issue which would also mark the beginning of a new chapter in relations between Iran and the international community,' said Mogherini." http://t.uani.com/1xJJk2x

ICHRI: "A Tehran appeals court has reduced the 18-month prison sentence originally handed down to Sadegh Zibakalam, a Tehran University professor and political analyst, for his public questioning of Iran's nuclear program and his criticism of the trial process in a state corruption case, to a five million toman fine (approximately $1,600). In a blog post addressed to the judges of Branch 36 of Tehran Appeals Court, Zibakalam wrote, 'Perhaps many viewed my verdict suspiciously from the beginning, and no doubt their suspicions are realized now, but I know full well just how serious that sentence was and how and why some gentlemen were truly after sending me to Evin,' he wrote. Zibakalam's charges stem from two open letters he wrote in February 2014 to the ultra-conservative Kayhan Newspaper's Chief Editor Hossein Shariatmadari and Member of Parliament Hamid Rasaei, in which he asked them 'What benefit and results has the nuclear policy had for the advancement, growth, and development of the country's economy?'" http://t.uani.com/1p5PzKY

Sanctions

The Hill: "With a nuclear talks deadline around the corner and no deal in sight, Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) said Thursday he will 'definitely' reintroduce sanctions legislation on Iran in the next Congress. 'I think the Republicans will definitely bring it up. It's a movie we're going to see again,' Kirk said on Capitol Hill. 'The Republican majority will be working with [Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)] about when the time is to come up for a vote on that.' ... The legislation, co-authored by Kirk and Sen. Bob Menéndez (D-N.J.), would automatically impose sanctions on Iran if it violates any final agreement or if walks away from the talks, and has gained the support of at least 15 Democrats. Kirk said he was building towards a veto-proof majority in the [Senate]... Current Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) had refused to bring the bill up for a vote, in deference to White House concerns it would kill a deal. 'The one thing that the president's been [relying] on is Harry Reid, and we got rid of him. So he's no longer going to have the power to ... schedule anything. All that power goes to Mitch, who is a strong supporter of Menéndez-Kirk,' the Illinois lawmaker said." http://t.uani.com/1xVS4QD
    

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