Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Eye on Iran: Iran: Fall in Oil Prices is 'Treachery'








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AP: "Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday that the sharp fall in global oil prices is the result of 'treachery,' in an apparent reference to regional rival Saudi Arabia, which opposed production cuts. Oil prices have plunged by more than 40 percent since June to around $65 a barrel, placing severe strain on Iran's economy, which is already hobbled by international sanctions imposed over its nuclear program. An OPEC meeting last month failed to reach agreement on production curbs, mainly because of Saudi opposition. Rouhani told a Cabinet meeting Wednesday that the fall in prices is at least partly 'politically motivated,' the result of a 'conspiracy against the interests of the region, the Muslim people and the Muslim world.' His comments reflect concerns among Saudi Arabia's rivals that the kingdom is capable of withstanding the revenue losses and is forcing lower oil prices to damage their economies. 'Iran and people of the region will not forget such conspiracies, or in other words, treachery against the interests of the Muslim world,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1Gjx4W6

AP: "Iran is being accused of illicitly stepping up purchases for its heavy water reactor, which if completed will produce enough plutonium for several nuclear weapons a year, U.N. diplomats said Tuesday... The U.S. and its partners want Iran to agree to re-engineer Arak to a light-water reactor that produces only minuscule amounts of plutonium. The Iranians would rather re-engineer it to produce less plutonium - but that process is reversible, and therefore opposed by the Americans. The allegation against Iran by an unnamed country, if true, would suggest that Tehran is rejecting the U.S. reconfiguration into a light-water reactor. The accusation was contained in a report to the Security Council sanctions committee prepared by experts monitoring sanctions against Iran, according to two diplomats familiar with the report. They spoke anonymously because the report hasn't been made public." http://t.uani.com/1zP1Rbc

Reuters: "Iran's oil minister has denied Tehran and Moscow are close to an agreement on an oil-for-goods swap, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported on Wednesday. Russia's Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev was quoted on Nov. 30 as saying Russia hoped for an agreement soon on a deal to supply grain and equipment to Iran in return for oil, but Iran Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh told Mehr there was no such plan in prospect. 'The idea of bartering Iranian oil in return for Russian commodities (goods) is not true and such an agreement has never taken place between the two countries,' he was quoted as saying. 'Iran and Russia have merely agreed on bilateral cooperation in oil and gas industries, based on which Iran will take advantage of Russian firms' technical and operational capabilities in its oil and gas industries,' he said, according to Mehr. Russian and Iranian sources told Reuters in January that the two sides were discussing a barter deal worth up to $20 billion that would involve Moscow buying up to 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods." http://t.uani.com/1ByxD0f

   
Sanctions Relief

IRNA (Iran): "The Second Iranian Auto Industry International Conference 2014, held in Tehran on December 1, was attended by representatives of over 30 countries' automobile and auto spare parts production companies and ambassadors of 17 states to Iran... Some of the foreign managers, experts and officials present at the confab included Senior Vice President of Renault Group and Chairman of Africa-Middle East-India Region Bernard Cambier, Vice President of the European Association of Automotive Suppliers Arnaud De David-Beauregard, Member of Managing Board of PSA Peugeot Citroen Jean-Christophe Quemard, Deputy of FAW Group Lee Baoquan, Managing Director of Obermeyer Holding Gmbh Maximilian Grauvogl, Managing Director of Pininfarina SpA Silvio Pietro Angori, French Ambassador in Tehran Bruno Foucher and Andreas Gerhard Goldmann, a German university professor." http://t.uani.com/1yzUxhm

Trend: "While Iran's targeted oil export revenues hasn't been realized, a 41 percent decrease in OPEC basket price compared to June has choked off the country's economy and budget incomes. Falling OPEC oil basket price from $107.89 in mid-June to $62.33 on Dec.9 was unexpected for Iran, which had set its yearly budget based on $100/barrel prices. While, according to its budget law, Iran should have exported 1.3 million barrels per day of crude oil (including the natural gas condensate), the statistics released by Reuters on Nov.29 reported that Iran's oil exports to Asia stood at 1.11 million barrels per day during the ten months of 2014. Iran also has about 0.1 mbpd of oil export to Turkey, but the Iranian Oil Ministry has confirmed that targeted 1.3 mbmpd oil export hasn't been realized." http://t.uani.com/12tFcpR

Sanctions Enforcement & Impact

Reuters: "Standard Chartered will face another three years of scrutiny by U.S. prosecutors for compliance with government sanctions against certain countries, according to documents filed on Tuesday that also noted another probe of the bank is underway. The original deferred prosecution agreements, struck with the U.S. Justice Department and the Manhattan district attorney over the bank's violations related to U.S. sanctions on Iran and other countries, was due to expire on Wednesday. The agreement to extend the deals means that the bank will face enhanced oversight for a longer period of time and could be hit with harsher penalties. The deferred prosecutions could be pulled back in the next three years and criminal charges against the bank could be filed, said Joan Vollero, a spokeswoman for the Manhattan district attorney. In a statement, the bank said it agreed to the extension and would work with authorities to reach the standard required." http://t.uani.com/1IA4nYM

Terrorism

AFP: "A delegation of Hamas which controls Gaza arrived Monday for talks with Iranian officials on repairing ties, local media reported. Tasnim news agency said the team was led by Hamas political bureau member Mohammed Nasr and included Ossama Hamdan, who is in charge of international relations. The visit is aimed at clearing the way for a mission by Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal, Amir Mousavi, the head of Tehran's Centre of Strategic Research, said on the website of Hamas-linked Palestinian daily Al-Ressalah." http://t.uani.com/1yyFdqz

Human Rights

Free Beacon: "The Iranian regime has launched a nationwide social media campaign called, 'We Love Fighting Israel,' which encourages Iranian children, teens, and Internet users to photograph themselves alongside messages of hate for the Jewish state. The movement has sprouted online in the last few days across social media sites such as Twitter, Instagram, and other platforms as a result of a recent call by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rallying the nation to take on Israel... The anti-Israel campaign now 'has gone viral on the web,' according to Iran's state-controlled Mehr News Agency, 'getting more and more boost from individuals who post photos reading similar sentences, [and] sharing the #Fightingthezionists hash tag.' ... One picture in particular has caught the eye of Iran critics on the web and prompted a harsh response to the anti-Israel campaign. The photo shows a young child decked out in military gear and holding a sign that translates from Farsi as, 'I love fighting against Zionists.' ... It is not the only photo to depict young children as participating in the campaign to fight Israel... The American nonprofit group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), which works to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, expressed disgust at the campaign on its Twitter account. UANI lashed out at the Iranian regime for promoting 'vile hate' and the 'indoctrination of hate children.' Additionally, Matan Shamir, UANI's director of research, called on social media sites to immediately take steps to remove the Iranian campaign. 'The Iranian regime's brazen exploitation and indoctrination of innocent children to hate and commit violence is utterly deplorable,' Shamir said. 'Instagram and its parent company Facebook must enforce their own guidelines prohibiting hate speech and incitement to violence, and remove such propaganda immediately.' Shamir went on to criticize Iran for its own domestic human rights abuses, such as preventing average citizens from accessing the Internet. 'It is intolerable that while the regime blocks its own citizens from accessing many popular social media platforms, it uses them to advance its own crude and hateful ideology,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1zPbEOy

AFP: "Award-winning Iranian human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh was arrested on Wednesday on unknown charges, her husband said, weeks after she was barred from practising for three years. The couple's car was surrounded by intelligence agents on a highway in Tehran, Reza Khandan wrote on his Facebook page. 'Nasrin and I were arrested. I was freed but Nasrin is still in detention,' he said, describing it as 'their gift for World Human Rights Day' which was being marked on Wednesday. Sotoudeh, who won the European parliament's prestigious Sakharov rights prize in 2012, was released from jail last year halfway through a six-year sentence for 'actions against national security' and spreading 'propaganda against the regime'. In September a Tehran court barred her from practising for three years." http://t.uani.com/1yyC7mi

RFE/RL: "An animal rights activist who was detained in Iran on December 4 has been released by authorities in Tehran. Ali Tabarzadi was released during the weekend without being formally charged. Authorities have not provided a reason for his arrest on December 4. One of Tabarzadi's relatives told RFE/RL's Radio Farda that he was interrogated about his activities as an animal rights activist. Tabarzadi's brother, Hossein Tabarzadi, said eight security agents searched the family's house in Tehran on December 4 and took away computers and other personal items. Tabarzadi, the son of well-known political prisoner Heshmatollah Tabarzadi, was detained ahead of a rally planned to protest the mistreatment of animals." http://t.uani.com/1vEih1T

Domestic Politics

Al-Monitor: "At an anti-corruption conference, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani railed against corruption and according to many observers, took an indirect shot at the dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in military, economic and media matters. During the Dec. 8 speech Rouhani said, 'We have to eliminate the consolidation of power. With the consolidation of power in one institution corruption is created, regardless of what you do. If the guns, the money, the newspapers, the websites is gathered in one place, certainly there will be corruption.'" http://t.uani.com/1vEi6Un

Guardian: "'Not only have they increased the price, they've reduced the weight, though don't tell anyone I told you,' laughs a young baker, no more than 25, who speaks quickly and works even faster in a bakery just off Khayyam street, near south Tehran's Mowlawi avenue... Bakeries, not usually a place of much excitement, have been the scene of heated conversations these past days after prices went up on 1 December by 30%." http://t.uani.com/1vEiUZg

Foreign Affairs

Reuters: "The Houthis deny they are copying the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement, the most powerful force in Lebanon. But similarities in tactics, such as blocking the airport road and setting up protest camps in the capital, have prompted accusations that the Houthis get support from Iran. Salah al-Sammad, a Houthi who advises the president, says the group only assumed control to root out corruption, and will leave once the government can provide security in Sanaa. That assertion is greeted with some scepticism, and a senior security official told Reuters that Iran sent weapons and money to the Houthis, whose leaders had traveled to Iran and Lebanon. Sammad denied receiving Iranian support. But a large bomb at the Iranian ambassador's residence last week, claimed by AQAP, appeared also to be a message that the Houthis have outstayed their welcome. It is hard to see how Yemen can avoid sectarian conflict between the Houthis and al Qaeda. The bomb at the Iranian envoy's house may just be the beginning." http://t.uani.com/1yzSNot

Al-Monitor: "Israel has launched at least four airstrikes on Syrian military sites since the start of the Syrian civil war, but the attack on Dec. 7 was the most extensive in terms of the number of targeted sites... Concerning the impact of the Israeli raids on the situation in Syria, retired Brig. Gen. Hafez Nabil told Al-Monitor, 'The recent Israeli strikes are in no way linked to the military or political situation in Syria. ... The Israeli operation is mainly targeting the batches of arms sent to Hezbollah.' 'Israel is not quite interested in what is happening in Syria, with the exception of the border area in the occupied Golan Heights. The raids carried out on Sunday [Dec. 7] were targeting a new batch of Iranian weapons heading to Lebanon - following the batch of Iran-made Fateh 110 advanced missiles - especially since the political and security chaos in Syria made the smuggling of advanced weapons easy,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1ukHMoD

Tasnim (Iran): "Iran's First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri likened the country to the island of stability in a Middle East which he said is facing the threat of extremist groups. Today, everybody admits that 'Iran is the island of stability in the Middle East region,' Jahangiri said in the western city of Hamedan on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1siHyyp

Opinion & Analysis

David Gardner in FT: "The Saudis have never abandoned the use of petrodollars for political ends; it is its principal diplomatic weapon. But now they and their Gulf allies appear to be using the oil price itself as a political weapon - aimed principally at Iran. The practice of hosing socio-political problems with money has been especially visible since the chain of Arab uprisings began four years ago. In early 2011, King Abdullah fired a $130bn welfare broadside at his Saudi subjects. But this traditional model of buying loyalty was quickly exported to neighbouring countries under stress. Within hours of the 2013 Egyptian coup against the Muslim Brotherhood - a rival Pan-Islamic brand - Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had a $12bn aid package ready for the generals, almost 10 times annual US aid to Egypt's military. But the more threatening regional rival to the House of Saud and its absolutist brand of Sunni Islam is Iran - which, since the 2003 US-led Iraq invasion installed a Shia government there, has forged an Arab Shia axis from Baghdad to Beirut, with influence, too, in Saudi neighbours Yemen and Bahrain. Wahhabi Saudi Arabia's visceral hatred of the Shia - as well as its rivalry with the Persian and Shia Islamic Republic for hegemony in the Gulf and the Levant - should be factored into the oil price equation. Riyadh, sitting on foreign exchange reserves of more than $750bn, can ride out lower oil revenues. Iran, which needs the price to be twice the current level to make ends meet, is haemorrhaging. Already economically hobbled by sanctions, Tehran is by some estimates spending $1.5bn a month supporting its allies in Syria and Iraq. Iran, of course, is aligned if not allied with the US and its European and Arab partners, including Saudi Arabia, in the fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. And President Barack Obama continues to pursue a rapprochement with Tehran through negotiations over its nuclear ambitions. But the US cannot be in any doubt about Saudi sentiments towards Shia Iran and the idea of a regional thaw. According to a well-placed Arab figure, a senior Saudi official told John Kerry, US secretary of state, while he was talking to Sunni Arab leaders this summer about a coalition against the jihadis: 'Isis is our [Sunni] response to your support for the Da'wa' - the Tehran-aligned Shia Islamist ruling party of Iraq. Markets of course influence oil prices; but so do viscera." http://t.uani.com/1zvsB2a
    

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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