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RFE/RL:
"Security forces in Tehran have thwarted efforts by Iranian
journalists to stage a demonstration to show solidarity with the victims
of the Charlie Hebdo massacre in Paris. Journalists tried to gather on
January 8 near the building which had housed the Association of Iranian
Journalists before it was shut down by former President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad's government in August 2009. But witnesses said police and
security forces prevented the journalists from gathering in front of the
building, which has been sealed since it was raided by security forces in
2009. A journalist who did not want to be identified by name told RFE/RL
that there was a heavy police presence on the streets leading to the
Association of Iranian Journalists before the scheduled demonstration. He
said journalists had planned to place flowers and light candles in front
of the association's building as a sign of respect for the Charlie Hebdo
staffers killed in the attack, which left 12 people dead. But the
journalists said they were forced to leave without placing the flowers
they had carried after an hour of trying to bargain with the police. 'We
just wanted to express our disgust regarding the terrorist attack,' said
another journalist who was planning to participate in the solidarity
gathering." http://t.uani.com/1AwvG1I
Reuters:
"Republican lawmakers said on Thursday they are close to
reintroducing legislation seeking a voice in negotiations over Iran's
nuclear program and to impose tougher sanctions against Iran, now that
they control both houses of the U.S. Congress. Senator Mark Kirk told
reporters at the Capitol he expected the Senate banking committee to vote
within weeks on a bill he co-authored with Democratic Senator Robert
Menendez that would increase sanctions on Iran if the negotiations
falter. Menendez-Kirk was introduced in December 2013, but did not come
up for a vote in the Senate when it was controlled by President Barack
Obama's fellow Democrats. The White House insisted its passage could
endanger international negotiations on Iran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/1Ksee3W
HuffPost:
"As the newly minted Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair, Bob
Corker, settles in, dealing with congressional tensions over Iran is high
on his to-do list. While the possibility of new sanctions against that
country lingers, the Tennessee Republican said Wednesday that his more
pressing priority is figuring out how to get Congress a voice in the
ongoing nuclear negotiations. 'The Iranian Parliament definitely is going
to weigh in on [a nuclear agreement], so you would think that the U.S.
Congress would weigh in on the issue,' Corker said, just hours after
being voted in as chair of the foreign relations panel. 'Congress kind of
put us in this position with the sanctions regime on a couple of
occasions. ... You would think that we would have the ability to weigh in
on any final arrangement.' Two potential options for dealing with Iran
are floating around the new Republican-majority Congress. A bipartisan
measure from Corker's predecessor, Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), would
hang the threat of sanctions over Tehran's head again. Another measure,
sponsored by Corker and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), would require
congressional approval to move forward on any nuclear agreement." http://t.uani.com/1wYMvNE
Iraq
Crisis
NYT:
"Asked about Iran's military operations in Iraq, which have included
airstrikes, Dempsey said Iraqi leaders have kept the U.S. informed about
Iranian activities against IS. So far, he said, those operations haven't
threatened U.S. troops or their mission. But, if that changes, he said
the U.S. will adjust its military campaign plan. 'If it is a path that
ties the two countries more closely together economically or even
politically, as long at the Iraqi government remains committed to
inclusivity of all the various groups inside the country, then I think
Iranian influence will be positive,' said Dempsey, adding that the U.S.
is watching the relationship very carefully." http://t.uani.com/1I1BOCo
Domestic
Politics
FT:
"Iranian investors' concerns over the future of nuclear negotiations
with the world powers, added to falling oil prices, have caused further
falls in shares prices on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The bourse's main
index, the Tedpix, closed at 66,902 on Wednesday - the last working day
this week - about 11 per cent down from its 75,949 points on November 24,
when investors expected the nuclear negotiators to yield results,
particularly an easing of international sanctions over Tehran's nuclear
programme. The decline comes after the market saw a rise of about 130 per
cent in 2013, mainly due to the market's adjustment to inflation of about
40 per cent and a 50 per cent drop in value of Iran's currency, the rial,
due to sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1yFfm0f
Foreign Affairs
Trend:
"Leader of Iran's Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei
warned that 'the enemies' are working hard to create division among the
Shias and the Sunnis. 'It is upon Muslims across the world to promote
unity in the face of threats,' he said, Iran's IRNA News Agency reported
Jan 9. 'Enemy spy services are behind the efforts to sow disunity among
Muslims,' Ayatollah Khamenei added. 'A Shia version connected to the
British spy agency - the MI6 - and a Sunni version, which is the
mercenary of the CIA, are both fake and working against Islam,' he
said." http://t.uani.com/1BOJHqU
Opinion &
Analysis
David Ignatius in
WashPost: "As the United States and Iran continue
negotiating a possible breakthrough nuclear agreement, both sides are
carrying concealed weapons that could be used if the talks collapse. The
threats that underlie the bargaining are rarely discussed publicly, but
both countries recognize the dangers ahead if they don't reach an
agreement by the June 30 deadline. The United States' leverage is its
demonstrated ability to use cyberweapons to attack Iranian nuclear
facilities; Iran's leverage is its ability to target the 2,190 U.S.
military personnel now in Iraq... An unusually detailed account of the
secret cyberwar comes in 'Countdown to Zero Day,' a new book by Kim
Zetter, a reporter for Wired magazine. Through detailed forensic
examination of the Stuxnet virus, she shows that President Obama pursued
what amounted to a two-track policy: At the same time as he sought
engagement with Iran, he authorized use of the computer weapon to
sabotage Iran's enrichment facility at Natanz... In several instances,
U.S. cyberassaults appear to have escalated after Iran veered away from
American efforts at conciliation. According to Zetter, a new version of
Stuxnet was compiled and time-stamped on June 22, 2009; that same day,
hard-line candidate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was officially declared the
winner of a contested presidential election. A new installment of the
virus began infecting Iranian computers the next day... The power of
Stuxnet technology is that the Iranians can't know what other malware may
have been planted in their computers or what new capabilities that U.S.
cyberwarriors may have developed. But it's certain that the United States
has greater capacity than has been reported or deployed and that Obama is
prepared to adjust U.S. cyberactivities up or down, based on the state of
negotiations... Iran's leverage in this game of chicken is its ability to
wage covert war through its proxies in the Middle East. The threat matrix
includes Iranian aid to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria
and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. But Iran's most potent weapon is its
ability to attack U.S. forces returning to Iraq to fight the Islamic
State... Iraq illustrates the U.S.-Iranian double game. Gen. Qassem
Suleimani, the head of Iran's Quds Force, has told the Iraqi government
that Tehran accepts renewed U.S. military assistance to Baghdad, within
limits. But his message contains an implicit warning: Iran could target
U.S. forces if rapprochement collapses. U.S. attacks against the Assad
regime in Syria could trigger Iranian reprisals; so could new U.S.
economic sanctions. The United States is vulnerable, but so is Iran.
That's the symmetry of this negotiation." http://t.uani.com/1tQI8nU
Amir Handjani in
TNI: "The recent OPEC decision not to slash
production is a major setback to Iran's fiscal health. Beset by
sanctions, Iran's most important source of revenue is under attack not by
Israeli or American war planners but by market forces. The price of Brent
crude, the benchmark, has sunk by 40 percent since June. North American
production and Saudi Arabian insistence to maintain current levels of
supply has led to a surplus of 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day. While the
steep drop in oil prices is a blow to all exporters, the Arab countries
of the Persian Gulf have sufficient cash reserves to weather the storm.
Iran does not. Years of war, sanctions, lack of proper investment as well
as mismanagement and corruption within the Iranian oil
industry-particularly under the stewardship of former President
Ahmadinejad-have had the profound and long lasting effect of putting Iran
behind other major crude producers. This is in sharp contrast to
where Iran stood in the 1970s when the world looked at her oil exports
with envy. At the time the late Shah was dubbed the 'Emperor of Oil' by
Time magazine as Iran held as much sway within OPEC as the Saudis do
today. Iran was the second largest exporter in the cartel and the fourth
largest producer in the world. At its peak, before the revolution, Iran
was producing 6 million barrels a day. Iran's fall as a global player in
energy markets has been steep and fast. Today, Iran is the 8th largest
net exporter of crude in the world, and it has fallen behind many OPEC
countries like Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait. To be sure, those countries have
structural advantages that Iran doesn't. Most significant, a smaller
population base that consumes less of the oil they produce. Estimates
vary, but of the 3.5 million barrels of oil a day that Iran produces,
nearly half is refined and used domestically. Also hurting Iran are
sanctions that have forced traditional European buyers, such as Germany
and Italy, to halt all Iranian crude purchases. This was not done all at
once but rather over a period of six months whereby the European Union
(assisted by United States using its threat of extraterritorial
sanctions) managed to get long standing customers of Iran's crude to
purchase less and less oil every month. This strategy allowed other OPEC
producers, particularly Saudi Arabia- to make up for the shortfall of
Iranian crude that was no longer being purchased. What made this strategy
particularly effective was that it was not sudden, but rather phased in
over time. As a result, crude importers didn't feel a price shock.
With Gulf Arab states producing at or near capacity and new production
coming from North American shale oil, downward pressure on crude prices
persisted. Consumers never felt the pain of Iran's crude being replaced.
Iran's crude exports were marginalized. The math is simple: What's 1.5
million barrels of crude per day, in a world that's currently
over-supplied by 2 million barrels per day? Some argue Iran should have
withdrawn its crude from the market all at once, so as to shock the
global market and cause a rise in crude prices. That argument falls flat
for a country whose primary source of income is oil exports." http://t.uani.com/1BUIvm2
Amal Mudallali in
TNI: "One place the Houthis do have support is in
Tehran, as their ascension to power has significantly expanded Iran's
influence in Yemen. Iran's relationship with the Houthis has been growing
for decades, and rebel leader Hussain Al Houthi, the father of the
current Houthi leader Abd AL Makak Al Houthi, has a street named after
him in Tehran. In recent years, however, Iran has been increasing its
support for its Yemeni allies, providing them with ever more weapons and
training. Notably, as the Yemeni press has pointed out, this has caused
the Yemeni government to change its tune when it comes toward Tehran. For
example, whereas the Yemeni government had long criticized Iran's role in
the country, the foreign minister recently described Yemen's relations
with Iran as 'brotherly' after the Iranian ambassador's house in Yemen
was bombed last month. More tellingly, presidential advisor and former
Prime Minister Abdel Karim Al Eryani recently elaborated on Iran's
influence on the Peace and Partnership Agreement that was signed last
September. Specifically, he recounted how the government negotiated with
the Houthis in Sanaa over the text, and although it was accepted by the
Houthis, the final answer came from Tehran via the Omani mediator in
Muscat. But the most consequential Iranian support for the Houthis comes
through the transfer of weapons. Al Sharq Al Awsat reported last month
that shipments of heavy weapons believed to be coming from Iran reached
the Houthis through the Midi and Hudaidah ports on the Red Sea and the Al
Khoukha seashore, which are under the Houthi control. Similarly, Reuters reported
last month that Iran has not only supported the Houthis with weapons, but
that it is training Houthis in Iran and Lebanon, in addition to the few
hundred Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) personnel it sent to Yemen to
train the Houthis. Nor is any of this particularly new; Iranian arms
shipments to the Houthis were first reported at least two years ago, and
the Yemeni press has even claimed that Hezbollah and IRGC militiamen are
fighting and dying with the Houthis in Yemen." http://t.uani.com/1DsOAtW
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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