For media outlets that deal with
the Middle East — both in Israeli and abroad — there is a tendency to
focus primarily on regional threats and on dangerous developments that
threaten to destroy us: the Islamic State, Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran,
Islamic Jihad. This is even more the case at times, like this weekend,
when Islamist violence is plainly gathering force beyond the region.
But
the past few months in the region indicate that we may be witnessing
the rise of a “new Middle East,” and that not everything that happens
here is bad for the civilized world or for Israel.
Even as France is grappling with an unprecedented series of terror attacks,
the map of the Middle East is changing, and some familiar states that
presented a serious threat to Israel’s security, like Syria and Iraq, no
longer exist as coherent entities. At the same time, several new trends
in the Middle East may produce quite a few opportunities to make
progress on the Arab-Israeli conflict.
First and foremost, of the four camps in the
contemporary Arab world, the three problematic ones for Israel have been
weakened substantially — the jihadists, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the
Shi’ite-Iranian axis. Meanwhile, the fourth, more moderate camp, grows
stronger.
The advance of the jihadist camp — al-Qaeda,
the Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra — is slowly being halted. The
international and Arab coalition, along with local actors like the
Kurds, have made IS much less threatening than it was six months ago. In
Iraq, the international coalition is recording significant achievements
in the war against IS, which is in a difficult bind. In Syria, the
Islamic State’s progress has also been slowed, but it is hard to see the
end of the civil war on the horizon.
The jihadists, it should be noted, have been
halted beyond Syria and Iraq as well. In places like Libya and the Sinai
Peninsula, they are absorbing painful blows.
Fighters
from the Free Syrian Army (left), and the Kurdish People’s Protection
Units (center), join forces to fight Islamic State group militants in
Kobani, Syria, November 19, 2014. (photo credit: AP/Jake Simkin)
A second trend whose implications are also
being felt by Israeli citizens is the drastic decline in oil prices,
which significantly weakens the Shiite camp economically. This positive
development is likely to have a serious effect on Iran and possibly on
its willingness to show flexibility in negotiations over its nuclear
program. It may also have an impact on the entire Shiite axis, and on
Iran’s capacity to maintain support for Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad, and
what is left of the Bashar Assad regime at the current levels. With
revenues from the oil industry dropping more than 50% due to lower
global prices, Tehran desperately needs the economic sanctions on the
country to be lifted.
The decline of oil prices is a fascinating
story in itself. Many attribute it to the Saudis’ desire to harm Iran
economically, but this was not their main goal. They refused to reduce
their oil production, and create higher prices, primarily to prevent
competition in the energy market from American companies producing oil
shale gas. The cost of producing this gas is extremely high, and if oil
prices are lower, oil shale will become unprofitable. On the way, as an
advantageous side-effect, the Saudis were happy about hurting Iran’s
economy.
An oil technician in an oilfield southwest of Tehran (photo credit: AP/Vahid Salemi)
Iran’s budget planning for 2015 began six
months ago, on the basis of a barrel of oil at $115. Last June, prices
hovered around $110 a barrel. Following the decline in prices, Iran’s
finance program was updated, based on the estimate of oil at $70 a
barrel.
This week, oil prices were hovering around $50 a barrel.
Tehran’s newest plan is to increase its oil
exports by June 2015 from 1.1 million barrels a day to 1.5 million. This
indicates Iran is banking on the possibility that it can make a deal
with the P5+1 world powers, which would result in the easing of the
sanctions on its oil industry.
The power of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt continues to rise
The third positive trend is the regional
containment of Muslim Brotherhood-style political Islam. Though it is
less radical than IS, it is extremist enough for its downfall to be
hailed. The trend is apparent in Tunisia, Egypt, and even in Qatar, the
most pro-Muslim Brotherhood country in recent years, which decided to
change course and move closer to the pragmatic Sunni axis.
The fourth trend is related to the moderate
Sunni Arab camp. The power of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates,
and Egypt continues to rise, and they have recorded significant gains in
the battle for the future of the Middle East. Along with Jordan and the
Palestinian Authority, they constitute the sane Sunni camp, which wants
to restore quiet and stability to the region, and presents exceptional
economic and political opportunities for Israel.
In the face of Arab countries that are
breaking up and/or disappearing from the map — such as Iraq, Syria,
Sudan, Libya, and Yemen — some Arab leaders are standing up and
presenting a strategy and a determination that Israeli leaders could
only dream about.
The new meteor in the Middle East’s sky,
Egypt’s Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, along with Saudi Arabia’s ailing King
Abdullah and his Jordanian counterpart, are signaling opportunities for a
better future for the region.
Feeling the murderous consequences of Islamist
extremism, Europe will be watching closely and hoping the relative
moderates can make further strides.
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