Thursday, February 5, 2015

Eye on Iran: Iran Is Trying to Shield Assad From Chemical Weapons Condemnation








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Foreign Policy: "Tehran has spent decades urging the world to bar the use of chemical weapons, citing the thousands it lost when Saddam Hussein gassed Iranian troops during the Iran-Iraq War. When it comes to Syria, however, Tehran is doing all it can to protect Bashar al-Assad from Western attempts to punish him for using the deadly weapons against his own people. The latest sign of Tehran's willingness to shield an ally came Tuesday, when Iran tried to block a move by the United States and Russia to present a mildly worded statement to the executive council of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCM) that would have merely expressed 'serious concern' about the likely use of chlorine as a weapon in Syria. The measure would also have provided the chemical watchdog's chief with a green light to report to the U.N. Security Council on his agency's investigation into the use of chlorine on the Syrian battlefield - something he has so far refused to do... On Friday, and again on Wednesday, Tehran's delegation at the OPCW headquarters in The Hague objected to the U.S. and Russian statement, which had the support of the OPCW's executive council's other 39 members. Normally, that would have been enough to kill off the measure at the OPCW, which has traditionally tried to make all of its decisions unanimously, giving a single state an effective veto. But in an unprecedented move, the United States forced the OPCW's executive council to publicly vote on the statement, thereby isolating Tehran. The vote, which followed intensive diplomatic outreach by the United States and other key partners, effectively pulled the rug out from underneath the Iranian delegation, making it clear that Tehran would not be able to protect Syria at The Hague." http://t.uani.com/1zc4cug

WSJ: "Ashton Carter, the veteran Pentagon official poised to lead the Defense Department, told senators on Wednesday that he is likely to support proposals to give Ukraine lethal arms in its battle with Russia-backed separatists. Appearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee considering his nomination, Mr. Carter said he is 'very much inclined' to step up U.S. military aid to Ukraine, an idea that has so far faced resistance from the White House... In the hearing, Mr. Carter said the threats posed by Iran are as serious as those posed by Islamic State fighters. The U.S. is leading international talks aimed at a rapprochement with Iran over its nuclear program, which much of the West believes is aimed at developing atomic weapons despite Tehran's denials." http://t.uani.com/1AvMto8

Reuters: "Iran's gas condensate export sales rose to more than $12.1 billion in the 10 months to Jan. 21, up 42 percent from the same period of last year, oil ministry news website Shana cited a government spokesman as saying. Separately, Shana also reported that Iran has started new gas condensate exports out of the world's largest gas field, South Pars, phases 15 and 16. The first condensate shipment was 500,000 barrels, with a second 500,000 barrels cargo scheduled for export this week... In December International Energy Agency data showed that Iranian exports of the light oil more than doubled in 2014 from the year before to about 190,000 bpd as buyers took advantage of a loophole in oil sanctions...  Iran earned more than $12.1 billion by selling gas condensate from March 21 to Jan. 21, against $8.5 billion in the same period a year earlier, Mohammad Bagher Nobakht was cited by Shana as saying." http://t.uani.com/1zc0uRA


   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

RFE/RL: "The top U.S. and Iranian diplomats will reportedly hold talks in Munich, Germany, on February 7 as part of efforts to secure a deal to curb Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. A State Department official is quoted as saying on February 5 that Secretary of State John Kerry will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on the sidelines of the annual Munich Security Conference 'to discuss the ongoing nuclear negotiations.' The two last met one-on-one in Geneva last month." http://t.uani.com/16Geop1

Free Beacon: "A top Iranian military leader claims that U.S. officials have been 'begging us' to sign a nuclear deal during closed door negotiations with Tehran over its contested nuclear program, according to recent comments made to the Iranian state-controlled media. Mohammad Reza Naghdi, the commander of the Basij, a paramilitary group operating under the wing of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC), recently claimed that the 'Americans are begging us for a deal on the negotiation table,' according to comments published in Persian and independently translated for the Washington Free Beacon. Naghdi added that American officials routinely 'plea' with Iran in talks and that the United States is negotiating from a position of weakness, according to his comments, which follow earlier reports claiming that Iran's leading negotiator 'frequently shouts' at U.S. officials." http://t.uani.com/1DISOun

Iraq Crisis

NYT: "The United Arab Emirates, a crucial Arab ally in the American-led coalition against the Islamic State, suspended airstrikes against the Sunni extremist group in December, citing fears for its pilots' safety after a Jordanian pilot was captured and who the extremists said had been burned to death, United States officials said Tuesday... The exchange followed a month of disputes between American military officials and their counterparts in the United Arab Emirates, who have also expressed concern that the United States has allowed Iran to play a growing role in the fight against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS and ISIL." http://t.uani.com/1zCWDRb

Human Rights

ICHRI: "A wave of labor protests has been sweeping through Iran over the past ten days. The protests are focused on workers' demands for wage increases to keep up with the growing rate of inflation, payment of back wages, and other issues such as layoffs and non-renewal of labor contracts. Between January 20 and January 29, 2015, at least eight labor protests have taken place in different cities, as reported by Iran's Labor News Agency, ILNA. The protests have taken the form of work stoppages, gatherings in front of offices they hold accountable, and group letters to the Speaker of the Parliament or the President... While the Iranian constitution ostensibly permits peaceful protests, the authorities frequently disperse, arrest and detain strikers. Labor leaders are particularly singled out for persecution and prosecution. There are no independent labor unions allowed in Iran and individuals who try to organize workers are routinely prosecuted." http://t.uani.com/1zCTsJ7

Domestic Politics

Guardian: "As plunging oil revenues pressure the Iranian government to come up with new revenue streams, reforming the country's broken tax system is high on President Hassan Rouhani's list of priorities. But cracking down on the plethora of exemptions and grey economic entities that allow an estimated 43% of the country's GDP to go untaxed requires a transformation of bureaucratic culture. On a structural level, reining in the religious, semi-governmental and military organizations accustomed to tax breaks portends a political challenge akin to 'pulling fresh kill out of a lion's mouth,' a Tehran-based political analyst said... 'Taxes only work in countries where there is some kind of accountability,' says Mohsen, 40, a barbershop owner from east Tehran. 'There is so much corruption here. The government takes the money I spend morning to evening toiling for and sends it to Bashar al-Assad for his war on the Syrian people. If it doesn't go to al-Assad, it will just disappear in the next historic case of embezzlement.'" http://t.uani.com/1LQ1Lb2

IranWire: "I tell Rajab that a government official has recently referred to people like him as 'loafers.'  He responds in anger:  'Damn his own loafer ancestors! When have I loafed? If I were a loafer I would go and lie down in bed.' The Deputy Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, Hossein Taee, recently referred to Iran's seven million unemployed as 'loafers' or 'idlers.' The ministry is responsible for job creation. But, according to Taee, people do not want jobs: they are not interested in gaining skills or finding work. 'Outside of Iran, these people are referred to as Not in Employment, Education, or Training - or NEET,' Raee says. 'It covers people who look for a job for a while and then disappear without a trace. We call them loafers.'" http://t.uani.com/1CxQNUT

Opinion & Analysis

Anthony Cordesman in Reuters: "It has become conventional wisdom that most sectarian conflicts in the Middle East today are fueled, to some extent, by Iran and Saudi Arabia. The worsening political situation in Yemen - which led to Shi'ite Houthi rebels ousting President Abrabuh Mansour Hadi on Jan. 22 - was described by some military experts as the result of a purported Saudi-Iran 'proxy war' in Yemen. That these two countries are enemies has been taken for granted by most, but is rarely examined or questioned. It is time the West takes a hard look at exactly why Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are so concerned about the Iranian threat. Much of the Western commentary on the strategic threats in the Middle East focuses on violent jihadist threats from non-state actors and the Iranian nuclear threat to Israel. The reality is far more complicated and involves the vital strategic interests of the United States, Europe, and Asia. To begin with the nuclear issue, it is important to remember that Iran has no nuclear weapons at present and that Israel is a mature nuclear weapons state with thermonuclear armed missiles that can reach any city or key target in Iran. At the same time, Iran has every reason to focus its political rhetoric on Israel as a threat and a target. Like its support of Gaza and the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the nuclear question deflects Arab fears of Iran's growing ability to threaten Arab states, divide the Arab world, and lever Iran's ability to threaten the flow of Gulf petroleum exports. Iran already has large missile and rocket forces that can reach any target in the Gulf and most targets in the Middle East. But these forces lack the accuracy and lethality to do great damage to targets in the Arab Gulf states and other neighboring states with conventional warheads. Iran's air force is aging, worn, and lacks anything like the capability of Saudi, United Arab Emirates, and other Arab forces - which have far more capable aircraft, surface-to-air missile forces, and missile defenses supplied by the West - as well as support from U.S., British, and French air and naval forces and the forces they can project forward in an emergency. If Iran can acquire nuclear warheads, however, this would radically shift the balance against Arab states that lack nuclear weapons. It would greatly increase the threat Iran can pose, and help deter its Arab neighbors and their allies from using their advantage in air power. This is why Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states are so concerned about the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. Their governments do not see an Iranian threat to a nuclear armed Israel; they see a nuclear threat to the Arab world... Iran poses a far more complex mix of threats than simply its nascent nuclear capabilities, and most will remain in place regardless of the outcome of the P5+1 negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1DIVurO

Eli Lake in Bloomberg: "et, contrary to much reporting, the plan for the militia defense predates the fall of Mosul and Sistani's declaration. It dates back to an April 7, 2014, meeting between then-Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Iraqi Shiite leaders. Maliki privately said something that he was loathe to say publicly: He did not trust the Iraqi army or its officers in a fight against the Islamic State. He informed those assembled that he was beginning to mobilize the Shiite militias to protect cities and positions in and around Baghdad. I confirmed the account of the meeting from minutes shared with me by an Iraqi politician, and also with a Shiite Iraqi leader who was there. Last April, Reuters reported on the meeting as well... Iraq's shift last year to a militia strategy has benefited men like Amiri, who as I reported yesterday is now commanding ground forces in Diyala Province. Amiri has close ties to Iran and his organization has been accused of significant human rights abuses. But he has also maintained ties with American diplomats over the years, and is not as hostile as many other Shiite militia leaders to a U.S. presence in Iraq. The same cannot be said for Qais al-Khalazi, founder of the Asaib Ahl al-Haq network, aka the 'League of the Righteous.' Khazali was one of the most wanted men in Iraq during the U.S.-led counterinsurgency known as the Surge, in part for his role in the 2007 roadside murder of five soldiers outside of Karbala. He was released from U.S. custody in 2010 in exchange for a British hostage held by the group. Today, according to group spokesman Naeem al-Aboudi, Khazali is fighting alongside the Iraqi army and even helping coordinate combatagainst the Islamic State with Iraqi generals. 'Of course his excellency Qais al-Khazali is leading the fighting with the Iraqi army against the Daesh,' Aboudi said, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State. Unlike Amiri, Khazali at least does not command Iraqi army divisions. Aboudi told me Khazali makes no apologies for the deaths of the Americans in Karbala. 'It was not only these five, we killed many Americans,' he said. 'Every American who carried a gun is a target for us.' He added that the initial 2007 plan was to kidnap the Americans, but when they saw U.S. helicopters overhead, the raid's leader opted for murder instead.  'We don't kill for the killing,' Aboudi told me. 'We love life and peace, but the people and the citizens have the right to defend themselves.' The Badr Organization fighters I talked to in Sinsil were far less hostile. Captain Assam al-Hashem, who left his job as a grocer seven months ago to join the war, said he was grateful Americans were helping deter Islamic State's advances. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, Hashem said, he manned an anti-aircraft gun in Saddam Hussein's army, even though he is both a Shiite and a Kurd, two groups tormented over the years by the Iraqi dictator. But after two homemade bombs nearly destroyed his family's home near the Iranian border this summer, he is happy today to fight with a militia that has been trained and equipped by the Iranians. 'We fight the Islamic State today,' he said. When asked about Iran assisting in this new war: 'What can we do?'" http://t.uani.com/1yMHN7O

Josef Joffe in WSJ: "When historians look back on President Obama's foreign policy, it likely will be defined by two shibboleths: 'leading from behind' and 'we don't have a strategy yet.' Great powers lead from the front, and they don't formulate strategy on the fly. They must have a strategy beforehand, one based on power and purpose that tells challengers what to expect. Nowhere is this truer than with the Islamic Republic of Iran, a rival power playing for the highest stakes: nuclear weapons and regional hegemony. The retort from Mr. Obama , if he ever laid out a Middle East strategy, might go like this: 'Iran is No. 1 in the region, and we need its help against Islamic State and sundry Sunni terror groups. Save for a massive assault with all its incalculable consequences, we cannot denuclearize Iran; we can only slow its march toward the bomb and guard against a rapid breakout. Rising powers must be accommodated for the sake of peace and cooperation. So let's be good realpolitikers, especially since it's time for a little nation-building at home.' Realism in foreign policy is the first rule, but what's missing in Mr. Obama's vocabulary? Words such as 'balance,' 'order,' 'containment' and 'alliance-cohesion'-the bread and butter of realism. The dearth of such ideas in this administration is striking. But the problem goes deeper. Iran is not a 'normal' would-be great power, amenable to a grand bargain where I give and you give and we both cooperate as we compete. Realists should understand the difference between a 'revisionist' and a 'revolutionary' power. Revisionists ('I want more') can be accommodated; revolutionaries ('I want it all') cannot. Revisionists want to rearrange the pieces on the chessboard, revolutionaries want to overturn the table in the name of the true faith, be it secular or divine. Napoleon was a revolutionary. He went all the way to Moscow and Cairo to bring down princes and potentates under the banner of 'democracy.' The early Soviet Union changed the banner to 'communism' but behaved similarly. Hitler wanted to crush Europe's nation-states in favor of the German 'master race.' All of them had to be defeated-or, in the nuclear age, contained for decades on end. Iran is a two-headed creature, combining both R's. As revisionist, it seeks to unseat the U.S. in the region, targeting Lebanon and Syria with proxies like Hezbollah, or directly with its expeditionary Guard forces. It reaches for nuclear weapons to cow the U.S., Israel and the rest. As revolutionary, the regime in Tehran subverts its neighbors in the name of the one and only true God, seeking to impose Shiite supremacy from Beirut to Baghdad. Shiite Houthi forces just grabbed power in Yemen. The Shiites shall reign where Shiites live. The point is that revolutionary powers, driven by the consuming faith of being on the right side of history, cannot be appeased." http://t.uani.com/1I94bSH
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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