Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Eye on Iran: Obama Opposes Further Extensions of Iran Nuclear Talks








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WSJ: "President Barack Obama said on Monday that the U.S. won't approve another extension of Iran nuclear talks if negotiations remain at a substantive impasse this spring, telegraphing a decision designed to ratchet up pressure on Tehran to agree to a final deal. Mr. Obama said differences with Iran and world powers have been 'sufficiently narrowed and sufficiently clarified' at this stage in the talks. At a White House news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mr. Obama said it is now up to Iran's leaders to decide if they want a deal. 'We are at a point where they need to make a decision,' he said. 'We now know enough that the issues are no longer technical. The issues now are, does Iran have the political will and desire to get a deal done?' He said U.S. options in the absence of an agreement are 'narrow, and they're not attractive,' a reference to the possibility of future military action against Iran. Mr. Obama's comments helped define a negotiation process that Western officials said has slowed in recent weeks, with Tehran refusing to move on a central demand to significantly curtail uranium enrichment." http://t.uani.com/1zGubiv

AFP: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said Tuesday that world powers must 'seize the opportunity' of a landmark nuclear deal, saying Tehran had taken the 'necessary steps' for an accord. Rouhani's remarks appeared to be a response to US President Barack Obama, who on Monday said: 'The issues now are -- does Iran have the political will and the desire to get a deal done?' 'Right now good progress has been made although we are some distance away from the final agreement,' the Iranian president said, during a meeting in Tehran with India's national security adviser Ajit Doval. 'Iran has taken necessary steps and now it's the other side's turn to seize the opportunity.'" http://t.uani.com/1M9fCcB

Press TV (Iran): "South Korea's tech giant Samsung - that has just finished a major oil project in Iran - says it is determined to continue working in the Iranian oil industry. Sun Lee, a top Samsung official in Iran, has told reporters that his company hopes to win new projects in that sector. He also said the company will continue offering maintenance and spare parts supply services for a mega floating oil export terminal for Iran that it finished on 8 February. Sun emphasized that the construction of the terminal - dubbed Persian Gulf - was made possible through overcoming severe financial problems, the Persian-language newspaper Forsat-e Emrooz reported. He said the high quality of the terminal is proportionate to Iran's crude export conditions, adding that this terminal will play an important role in Iran's oil industry. The Persian Gulf terminal - that has been described as the world's largest - has a total capacity of 2.2 million barrels and can store some 200,000 barrels per day of heavy crude oil produced in Iran's offshore oil fields of Soroush and Nowruz. South Korea's Samsung started building the terminal in 2008 and finished it on 8 February 2015 at a cost of about $300 million." http://t.uani.com/1DADCla

   
Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "India's central bank has ordered banks to tighten monitoring of export finance deals after investigators uncovered an invoicing scam they suspect is part of a multi-billion-dollar scheme to exploit Western financial sanctions against Iran. Although the Reserve Bank of India's ruling made no mention of the scheme that targeted UCO Bank, an RBI source familiar with the matter said it was related to a probe into the suspected misuse of up to $3.2 billion in export advances paid out by the bank... Under a provision in U.S. sanctions law, Iran can accumulate oil export revenues with its Asian buyers and use the funds to buy essential imports. According to sources familiar with the investigation by the Enforcement Directorate, a group of nine Iranians who entered India on student visas set up shell companies in a provincial city to tap into these funds held at state-owned UCO Bank... Investigators have confirmed 9.25 billion rupees ($150 million) in suspect transactions involving eight firms. The real figure could be as high as 200 billion rupees ($3.2 billion), according to the RBI source." http://t.uani.com/1vggkdp

Sanctions Enforcement & Impact

Reuters: "A legal attempt by Iran's main oil tanker firm NITC to stop the European Union from reimposing sanctions on it over its disputed nuclear programme has failed in a London court, setting back Tehran's efforts to ease trade restrictions... EU governments were due imminently to re-include NITC, a major carrier of Iran's oil, on a blacklist of people and entities targeted by the bloc's sanctions, High Court Judge Nicholas Green said on Monday. The NITC case is part of an effort by the EU to mount a challenge against Iranian companies that have been winning court cases aimed at lifting sanctions against them. NITC had been on an EU sanctions blacklist since 2012 until a European court ruled in July last year that there were no grounds to keep it on the list. The firm announced in October that EU sanctions against it had been annulled. It is still blacklisted by the United States." http://t.uani.com/1KItqr0

Iraq Crisis

RFE/RL: "A commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has been killed in Iraq, Iranian media reported. The Tasnim news agency, said to be affiliated with IRGC, says Reza Hosseini Moghadam was in Samarra to confront militants of the Islamic State (IS) when he was killed on February 7. 'He [Moghadam] was martyred in the vicinity of the Al-Askari [Shi'ite] shrine in Samarra,' Tasnim reported. Hard-line news sites reported that Moghadam, who they said was a veteran of the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, was killed by IS snipers and buried in Najaf... Moghadam is the second senior IRGC member reported killed in Iraq in less than two months." http://t.uani.com/1M9gDRM

Al-Monitor: "As US forces pound IS from the air, however, concerns are increasingly being expressed in Washington, as well as among Sunni Arab members of the anti-IS coalition, that Iran will be the ultimate beneficiary. For some critics, these concerns are compounded by the prospect of a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran. 'What if we defeat [IS] but lose Iraq in the process?' asked Michael Knights, a leading US expert on the Iraqi military. Referring to what he called 'a Hezbollization of the Iraqi security sector,' Knights told an audience at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on Feb. 6 that this was a 'Yalta moment' similar to the 1945 conference in Crimea where the United States acquiesced to Soviet control of post-war Eastern Europe. The United States needs to step up its security cooperation with the Baghdad government and 'outperform the Iranians' to prevent Iraq from becoming an Iranian satellite, Knights suggested. That will require 'a visionary decade-spanning relationship' with the Iraqi government, he said, that will include a larger US military presence." http://t.uani.com/1AfHLtL

Human Rights

HRW: "Iran's judiciary immediately should halt plans to execute a man convicted at age 17 of terrorism-related crimes for an armed opposition group and vacate his death sentence. Iran's Supreme Court affirmed the death sentence for the man, Saman Nasim, in December 2013. His lawyer and family fear that authorities may carry out the sentence in less than two weeks despite an absolute ban on the execution of child offenders in international law. Iranian media reports indicate that Iran has executed at least eight child offenders since 2010. Reports by Amnesty International and other rights groups, however, suggest as many as 31 child offenders may have been executed during that period, making it one of the countries with the world's highest number of reported child offender executions. 'This is an open-and-shut case since there is no dispute that Saman Nasim was under 18 when security forces arrested him,' said Sarah Leah Whitson, Middle East and North Africa director. 'Nasim and his family should have never suffered mental anguish associated with being on death row for months on end, let alone facing imminent hanging.' Nasim's lawyer and a source close to the family told Human Rights Watch that they have received information suggesting that the judiciary's implementation division has cleared the path for Orumiyeh prison, where he is being held, to execute him on or about February 19, 2015." http://t.uani.com/179nbA3

Domestic Politics

Al-Monitor: "Eleven cities in Iran's southwest Khouzestan province have shut down offices and schools over excessive dust particles in the air. Iranians tweeted pictures of buildings and streets covered with dust with the hashtag #Khouzestancantbreath while officials and politicians used the opportunity to take a shot at the administration for its lack of a comprehensive plan to address the crisis... Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a conservative who ran in the last presidential elections, said, 'Today our main problem is the environment, and we cannot say that the environment is endangering people's lives - we must say that the environment is taking people's lives.'" http://t.uani.com/194WSf1

Foreign Affairs

Free Beacon: "Iran's newly appointed ambassador to the United Nations is facing criticism for his anti-Israel views and past comments urging Muslims to 'unite around resistance' to the Jewish state. Iranian diplomat Gholamali Khoshroo, a relative of President Hassan Rouhani, was appointed to the post in late January, after more than a year of controversy over Tehran's previous pick, Hamid Abutalebi, whom the United States refused to grant a visa due to his connections to the 1979 hostage crisis at the U.S. embassy in Tehran... While touted by some as a more moderate choice for the post, Khoshroo has displayed much of the anti-Israel animus common among Iran's leading politicians and diplomats, according to his past remarks. Khoshroo, for instance, recently dubbed Israel as the 'main problem' in the Middle East and urged Muslims to 'unite around resistance' to it, according to comments reported in July 2013 by the Iranian press. 'In my view if we focus on the main problem of the region (Middle East) which is Israel, then Islamic and Arab countries can unite around resistance against Israel, get back their pride and please their people,' Khoshroo said, according to an independent translation of his remarks... In a September 2013 remarks, Khoshroo stated that the President Obama could solve America's problems with Iran by putting 'some distance' between the United States and the 'Zionist lobby,' according to Iranian reports." http://t.uani.com/1KE7UFL

Opinion & Analysis

UANI Advisory Board Member Walter Russell Mead in The American Interest: "Suddenly, we seem to be having the conversation the administration didn't want to have: a conversation about just where President Obama's approach to Iran is taking us. A Washington Post editorial has put the issue on the agenda in a way that it will be hard for the spinners and Iran-apologists to dance past, and there are signs that bipartisan concerns are beginning to grow... As the Post points out, a cavalcade of distinguished American foreign policy voices, including Henry Kissinger and George Schultz, have issued warnings that the White House seems to have lost its way as it tries to navigate the complex minefield that is U.S.-Iranian relations. As my colleague Michael Doran has recently pointed out in an article that contributed to the rising disquiet about the administration's Iran strategy, the approach to Iran has been the centerpiece of the administration's Middle East strategy from 2009 to the present day. What's interesting is that the growing disquiet about our Iran policy isn't over the basic decision to negotiate with Iran. Although as usual the White House tries to portray its opponents as hot heads whose unreasoning hatred of Iran combines with a love of war to create a blind opposition to the President's sensible and rational preference for diplomacy, the debate is not about whether to negotiate with Iran. It is about how to ensure that those negotiations advance important American interests. The debate over Iran negotiations is really a debate over Middle East strategy as a whole. The Iran apologists inside the administration and out have a case that basically looks like this: Iran is the best possible long term partner for the United States in the region and American and Iranian interests are strategically aligned. The Saudis, who call themselves our allies, export religious extremism and are fundamentally committed to a backward form of political organization. The Saudi monarchy is a ticking time bomb that will one day explode when the population tires of a greedy, corrupt and incompetent royal family. Iran, by contrast, has a large and educated middle class; flawed as its current political system may be, forces are at work that will soon make Iran a much more modern and democratic country than any of the backward Arab states with whom the United States is currently allied. An end to U.S.-Iranian hostility over the nuclear issue will do more than lay a dangerous dispute to rest. It will open the door to a much wider and more fruitful relationship. The goal of American policy should therefore be to create a relationship of trust between the two capitals based on this community of interest. When the regime feels less threatened by the United States, and when it understands that the United States wants to work with it towards a regional order that is in the interests of both countries, Iran will begin to work 'within the system' and become a responsible stakeholder rather than an exporter of subversion. Moreover, an end to sanctions combined with better relations with the United States will contribute to the democratization of Iranian society. The revolution, Iran apologists argue, is old and decrepit. The rising generations are tired of clerical rule and hunger for western modernity. The United States is actually popular among Iranian youth. The clerics and their repressive allies are only clinging to power because the sense of encirclement and danger drives nationalists into their camp and because the sanctions undermine the middle class and concentrate economic power in the hands of the Revolutionary Guard and other regime allies. By offering a face-saving compromise on the nuclear issue, ending sanctions and opening the door to a wider role for Iran in the region, the Obama administration can stabilize the region and democratize Iran while reducing the American profile-and reducing our dependence on unsteady and problematic allies like the Gulf states... But the growing chorus of sober and informed critics of the White House approach to Iran aren't for the most part attacking the idea of negotiations over the nuclear issue or even of a possible future rapprochement with Iran. This isn't even primarily an argument about exactly how many centrifuges the nuclear talks allow the Iranians in the end - or about any of the other technical details of a proposed nuclear understanding. The skeptics are criticizing what looks like a disjointed and misguided approach to the relationship with Iran that threatens to further destabilize the Middle East. It is possible that the administration has good answers for them, but up until now the White House has preferred not to engage with the serious arguments against its Iran approach. The longer the President and his top aides keep pretending that critics have no concerns that are worth taking seriously, the more they feed the narrative that the White House is in over its head on Iran-that it has lost sight of some important considerations in a headlong drive to get a deal. That perception, unless refuted (rather than mocked, caricatured or ignored) will ensure that neither Congress nor the country will allow the White House to pursue an Iran strategy that lacks public buy-in and consent." http://t.uani.com/1ASZ7xX

WSJ Editorial: "One big question coming out of the Munich security conference this weekend is whether Iran and the U.S. can strike a nuclear deal before the next, and perhaps final, deadline in March. But the better question may be what happens if they succeed-what happens if they sign an accord close to the parameters of the talks as we now know them? The Obama Administration may be underwriting a new era of global nuclear proliferation. That's the question Henry Kissinger diplomatically raised in recent testimony to the Senate that deserves far more public attention. The former Secretary of State is the dean of American strategists who negotiated nuclear pacts with the Soviets in the 1970s. This gives his views on the Iran talks particular relevance as President Obama drives to an accord that he hopes will be the capstone of his second term. On Jan. 29 Mr. Kissinger appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee with two other former Secretaries of State, George Shultz and Madeleine Albright. Here's how he described the talks in his prepared remarks: 'Nuclear talks with Iran began as an international effort, buttressed by six U.N. resolutions, to deny Iran the capability to develop a military nuclear option. They are now an essentially bilateral negotiation over the scope of that capability through an agreement that sets a hypothetical limit of one year on an assumed breakout. The impact of this approach will be to move from preventing proliferation to managing it.' Mull that one over. Mr. Kissinger always speaks with care not to undermine a U.S. Administration, and the same is true here. But he is clearly worried about how far the U.S. has moved from its original negotiating position that Iran cannot enrich uranium or maintain thousands of centrifuges. And he is concerned that these concessions will lead the world to perceive that such a deal would put Iran on the cusp of being a nuclear power. Administration leaks to the media have made clear that Secretary of State John Kerry 's current negotiating position is that Iran should have a breakout period of no less than a year. But as Mr. Kissinger told the Senators in response to questions, that means verification and inspections become crucial. 'In the space of one year, that will create huge inspection problems, but I'll reserve my comment on that until I see the agreement,' Mr. Kissinger said. 'But I would also emphasize the issue of proliferation. Assuming one accepts the inspection as valid' and 'takes account of the stockpile of nuclear material that already exists, the question then is what do the other countries in the region do? And if the other countries in the region conclude that America has approved the development of an enrichment capability within one year of a nuclear weapon, and if they then insist on building the same capability, we will live in a proliferated world in which everybody-even if that agreement is maintained-will be very close to the trigger point.' ... A world with multiple nuclear states, including some with revolutionary religious impulses or hegemonic ambitions, is a very dangerous place. A proliferated world would limit the credibility of U.S. deterrence on behalf of allies. It would also imperil U.S. forces and even the homeland via ballistic missiles that Iran is developing but are not part of the U.S.-Iran talks. President Obama would claim the inspection regime is fail-safe, but Iran hid its weapons program from United Nations inspectors for years. That's why the U.N. passed its many resolutions and the current talks began. Iran also hid its facility at Qum. All of this shows how difficult it is to maintain a credible inspection regime in a country determined to evade it. Or as Mr. Kissinger delicately put it, 'Nobody can really fully trust the inspection system or at least some [countries] may not.'" http://t.uani.com/1z4gAxy

John Bolton in LAT: "Any administration's national security strategy written for public consumption inevitably involves platitudes, vacuous rhetoric and self-congratulation. But the strategy announced last week for President Obama's final two years in office sets new records in all these categories. As a sleep aid, it cannot be underestimated. Indeed, diverting attention from America's rapidly deteriorating global strategic posture was likely a prime objective, as were his answers at Monday's news conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In her defense of the strategy, National Security Advisor Susan Rice criticized 'alarmism' by Obama's critics, arguing in a speech on Friday that we do not face 'existential' threats as we did in World War II and the Cold War. That's true, but no thanks to Obama's policies, which have weakened the United States and in coming years will encourage aggressors rather than deter them. The president fails to grasp that the function of statecraft is precisely to be alert to small threats and crises, and to prevent them from growing to existential levels... The security strategy's detachment from reality is most egregiously displayed in its discussion of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and specifically Iran's nuclear-weapons program. Obama is proud he is reducing America's nuclear capabilities, even as he admits that threats posed by 'irresponsible states or terrorists' using nuclear weapons are the gravest America faces. Unfortunately, the idea that diminished U.S. capabilities will in some way induce those 'irresponsible states or terrorists' to modify their own behavior seems chilling and palpably inaccurate. Surely, a weaker America is an incentive to the irresponsible, including states like Russia and China, not a model. On Iran, Obama says that the 2013 'interim' deal (agreed to by the U.N. Security Council's five permanent members and Germany) 'has halted the progress of Iran's program.' This is flatly untrue and as a basis for policy, it almost certainly obscures a growing 'existential' threat for America and our allies. It assumes we know everything about Iran's nuclear-weapons program, which is a dramatically unrealistic characterization for both the extent of, and our confidence in, the information we actually possess. There is simply no evidence that Iran has done anything other than make temporary, easily reversible concessions regarding uranium already enriched to reactor-grade levels. Nothing in the interim agreement even addresses the likelihood of Iran's efforts to weaponize highly enriched uranium and to develop a plutonium nuclear-weapon option. Nor does the agreement curtail its missile development program. The missile work of Iran's partner, North Korea, has already led U.S. and South Korean commanders to warn that targeting America's West Coast is within Pyongyang's reach. Even more fundamentally, Obama's security strategy fails to acknowledge that recognizing an Iranian 'right' to enrichment reverses the most basic premise of more than a decade of negotiation with Iran begun in 2003 by Britain, France and Germany. From 2003 until Obama, the West agreed that Iran had to forgo unconditionally all enrichment-related activity to assure the world its program was entirely peaceful. Obama's retreat on this critical point is comparable to the 'existential' mistakes made by Western appeasers in the 1930s." http://t.uani.com/1zshl2x

WashPost Editorial: "Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, like several other senior officials in his country, has made it clear that he is uncomfortable with the detention of The Post's correspondent in Iran, Jason Rezaian, who as of Monday had been unjustly held for 202 days. Asked Sunday about the case during a conference in Munich, Mr. Zarif said: 'I hope he will be cleared in a court of law... I hope once the court process is completed, we will have a clear-cut case or we will have his acquittal.' Those words might offer grounds for optimism that Iran will soon cease its outrageous mistreatment of Mr. Rezaian, a 38-year-old California native who, since being arrested with his wife July 22, has not been informed of the charges against him or been allowed to speak with a lawyer. Yet Mr. Zarif's words are contradicted - as they have been in the past - by the actual developments in Mr. Rezaian's case. Late last month, a human rights group reported that his trial had been referred to the court of a notorious Revolutionary Court judge known for imposing harsh sentences in political cases. As Mr. Rezaian's family noted in a statement, Judge Abolghassem Salavati was sanctioned in 2011 by the European Union for 'gross human rights violations.' In 2009, he sentenced two American hikers, arrested near Iran's border with Iraq, to eight years in prison on groundless espionage charges. To suggest, as Mr. Zarif did, that Mr. Rezaian will be treated fairly in such a court strains credulity; it raises the question of whether the foreign minister was seeking to deflect an embarrassing inquiry with an empty expression of hope. Some analysts of Iran have speculated that the persecution of Mr. Rezaian is an attempt by 'hard-liners' and their allies in the judiciary to undermine the 'moderate' government of President Hassan Rouhani and the nuclear negotiations being conducted by Mr. Zarif. If that is true, the case raises a question about the talks: If Mr. Zarif is not able to obtain justice for an innocent journalist he has called 'a good reporter,' can he be expected to obtain necessary concessions on a nuclear program that has been the focal point of Iran's national security apparatus for more than a decade? Whether there is a power struggle in Tehran or not, the Rezaian case illustrates a profound imbalance in the nuclear negotiation. While an American citizen is openly wielded as a human pawn, at enormous cost to his well-being and that of his family, the Obama administration fastidiously refrains from any action it believes might offend Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - from seeking the downfall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to tolerating a vote in Congress on sanctions that would be imposed in the event the talks failed. Mr. Zarif asserted that he had 'tried my best to help [Mr. Rezaian] in a humanitarian way, providing for his mother's visit.' But such palliatives are not a substitute for justice. It's time for him and Mr. Rouhani to use their influence to free Mr. Rezaian - and demonstrate that the Iranian government can deliver on its words." http://t.uani.com/1z4dppP
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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