Fact Check Said Muslims Wouldn’t Be 10% of the UK by 2050, They Already Are
http://www.frontpagemag.com/2015/dgreenfield/fact-check-said-muslims-wouldnt-be-10-of-the-uk-by-2050-they-already-are/
February 12, 2015 by 31 Comments
My own view on the assorted Fact Check pieces run by the media is not to trust them any farther than you can throw them.
Case in point, a fact check by the UK’s Channel 4 on The Commentator’s piece on the UK’s Islamic demographics.
The Commentator wrote that,
That was written in 2013. The current numbers among schoolchildren however show that among the next generation, they’re already almost there.
In the 0-4 age group, Muslims are fast approaching the 10 percent mark. And those are the only numbers that count.
Looking at an overall population snapshot tells us very little that’s useful. The numbers that matter show what the next generation will look like. Muslims are hardly a blip among seniors, but the birth rates tell the real story.
Channel 4 argued that Muslim birth rates will decline. That’s the fashionable prediction and even some critics of Islam believe it. But while they no doubt will decline, the decline will still keep them well ahead of native birth rates and immigration will more than make up the difference. To argue otherwise is to insist that Pakistani and Bangladeshi birth rates will decline because Muslim birth rates in Iran have. It’s a weak argument.
By 2050, the 65+ part of the graph will look like the 0-4 one does. Meanwhile the 0-4 numbers will be staggering.
If the UK does not take control of its immigration, it will be gone long before 2050. Ditto for the rest of Europe, for Canada, Australia and the United States.
Forget the fact checks. What we need is a reality check.
Case in point, a fact check by the UK’s Channel 4 on The Commentator’s piece on the UK’s Islamic demographics.
The Commentator wrote that,
By the year 2050, in a mere 37 years, Britain will be a majority Muslim nation.Channel 4 responded that Muslim fertility would decline and “FactCheck wouldn’t bet on the British Muslim population ever topping 10 per cent, let alone 50 per cent.”
This projection is based on reasonably good data. Between 2004 and 2008, the Muslim population of the UK grew at an annual rate of 6.7 percent, making Muslims 4 percent of the population in 2008. Extrapolating from those figures would mean that the Muslim population in 2020 would be 8 percent, 15 percent in 2030, 28 percent in 2040 and finally, in 2050, the Muslim population of the UK would exceed 50 percent of the total population.
That was written in 2013. The current numbers among schoolchildren however show that among the next generation, they’re already almost there.
One in 12 schoolchildren in England and Wales are now officially classed as Muslim after a decade which saw the number of followers of Islam surge by just over 1.1 million, according to the most detailed study of its kind ever published.Here’s a nice little graph of demographic doom.
That is up from just under 1.6 million in 2001 – a 75 per cent jump.
At a time when the wider population is ageing rapidly, half of British Muslims are under the age of 25 and a third are under 15.
In the 0-4 age group, Muslims are fast approaching the 10 percent mark. And those are the only numbers that count.
Looking at an overall population snapshot tells us very little that’s useful. The numbers that matter show what the next generation will look like. Muslims are hardly a blip among seniors, but the birth rates tell the real story.
Channel 4 argued that Muslim birth rates will decline. That’s the fashionable prediction and even some critics of Islam believe it. But while they no doubt will decline, the decline will still keep them well ahead of native birth rates and immigration will more than make up the difference. To argue otherwise is to insist that Pakistani and Bangladeshi birth rates will decline because Muslim birth rates in Iran have. It’s a weak argument.
By 2050, the 65+ part of the graph will look like the 0-4 one does. Meanwhile the 0-4 numbers will be staggering.
If the UK does not take control of its immigration, it will be gone long before 2050. Ditto for the rest of Europe, for Canada, Australia and the United States.
Forget the fact checks. What we need is a reality check.
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