February 19, 2015
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UANI Resource on P5+1 Negotiations with Iran
Facts Belie Claims that JPA Process Has Been Success
New York, NY - Today,
United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is releasing a new resource analyzing key assertions about the purported success and potential outcomes of the JPA negotiating process.
Opinions about the efficacy of the nuclear negotiations with Iran (the JPA process) are informed by competing sets of answers to three key questions:
Is the Joint Plan of Action (JPA) process succeeding in rolling back Iran's nuclear program while enabling sanctions pressure on Iran to grow?
Are our Iranian regime negotiating partners, mainly President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Zarif, "moderates" who diverge from Supreme Leader Khamenei's hardline position?
Will the simple passage of additional sanctions measures - complete with delayed triggers, humanitarian carve-outs, and broad discretionary and waiver authority for the President - lead to war?
The answer to all three questions is "no":
- Iran's nuclear program is neither rolled back nor frozen.
- Iranian leaders like President Rouhani are not moderates but regime insiders loyal to Khamenei and the extremist ideology of the Iranian regime.
- Sanctions on Iran have proven to be an effective non-violent policy tool that compelled Iran to come to the negotiating table.
Three Claims: True or False?
The JPA is Working to Increase Sanctions Pressure and Roll Back Iran's Nuclear Program
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President Rouhani is a Moderate
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Supporters of Sanctions are Warmongers and Sanctions Will Lead to War
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The JPA process-under which negotiations with Iran are taking place-has succeeded in "halting progress" on Iran's nuclear program. Under the JPA "sanctions pressure on Iran has increased, not decreased."
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The Iranian regime includes moderates led by Rouhani influential enough to make a final, comprehensive nuclear deal and modify Iranian regime behavior.
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There is no non-violent alternative to negotiations. Further sanctions would put the U.S. on a path to war with Iran.
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Is the JPA Process Working to Stop the Advancement of Iran's Nuclear Program & Is Sanctions Pressure Increasing?
FACT: IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
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FACT: IRAN'S ECONOMY HAS RECOVERED FROM RECESSION AND RETURNED TO POSITIVE GROWTH
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Sanctions relief under the JPA has enabled Iran to return to positive economic growth after two years of recession, leading President Rouhani to proclaim that sanctions are "unraveling." Iran's currency has stabilized and domestic inflation has dropped significantly. This economic boost has given Iranian officials the confidence to believe they can walk away from negotiations without much harm. Meanwhile, with the momentum of sanctions halted, reputational and financial risk has clearly declined for multinational corporations-particularly in the energy and automotive sectors-that are publicly pursuing the renewal or expansion of their Iran business.
Are U.S. Negotiating Partners in Iran, Led By President Rouhani, Moderates That Will Alter Iranian Behavior?
The engagement with Iran has been justified in part by a belief that the Iranian regime contains moderate elements influential enough to make a final, comprehensive nuclear deal. Sanctions relief to Iran in addition to concessions in nuclear negotiations will sideline hardliners and incentivize and empower supposed moderates like President Hassan Rouhani to reach a final deal and temper extremist Iranian regime attitudes and behavior. This wishful thinking, however, does not comport with the reality of the regime's radicalism and its ongoing refusal to offer any reasonable compromise.
FACT: THE IRANIAN REGIME IS AN EXTREMIST & REVOLUTIONARY POWER
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Much of what drives Iranian politics and decision-making is hatred of the West. The Iranian regime demonizes the U.S. as the "Great Satan," denies the Holocaust, pledges to wipe Israel off the map, and threatens to dominate America's Gulf allies. The regime's
raison d'être is resisting the West and exporting its radical, revolutionary ideology. Therefore, a severe cost must be imposed on the Iranian regime to compel it to roll back the nuclear program it has deemed a symbol of its resistance to the West.
FACT: THE VIRULENTLY ANTI-AMERICAN SUPREME LEADER IS THE ULTIMATE AUTHORITY IN IRAN
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Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is the ultimate authority in Iran, and President
Rouhani has acknowledged that Khamenei is the sole decision-maker on Iran's nuclear policy. Iran's nuclear negotiators must obey Khamenei's edicts, including the uncompromising "
red lines" he has set, such as Iran obtaining a uranium enrichment capacity that is about 20 times the program's current processing ability. Furthermore, Khamenei has a particularly
deep-seated hatred of the United States, which limits his willingness to come to any reasonable, negotiated compromise, much less a rapprochement.
FACT: PRESIDENT ROUHANI IS A PROVEN REGIME LOYALIST
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Will Sanctions Lead To War And Are Supporters of Sanctions Warmongers?
At the time of the signing of the JPA in November 2013,
the Obama Administration indicated that renewed sanctions pressure would be implemented if Iran were unable to reach an agreement by the six month deadline. Instead, the JPA has been extended twice, continuing for more than 18 months, with further extensions possible. Alarmed by Iran's continued intransigence and delaying tactics, Congress has attempted to pass deadline-triggered sanctions to enhance U.S. negotiating leverage. The White House has been staunchly opposed to such measures and has evoked the threat of war and accusations of warmongering to prevent Congress from acting.
FACT: SANCTIONS ARE A NON-VIOLENT POLICY TOOL
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Sanctions on Iran continue to serve as the most effective peaceful policy option as the regime advances its nuclear program, sponsors terrorism,
threatens the U.S. with destruction, and pursues regional hegemony. It is a testament to the effectiveness of these sanctions that the regime and its surrogates put such effort into stigmatizing and opposing sanctions.
It is not a binary choice between negotiations or war, as the White House implies. At this time, Iran has shown that it is unwilling to compromise and significantly roll back its nuclear program. As a result, more pressure must come to bear on the regime to achieve this goal.
FACT: FURTHER PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF SANCTIONS CAN FORCE IRAN TO COMPROMISE
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In Conclusion
The three main premises underscoring a depiction of the JPA process as a success have proven false. The JPA is not working as Iran's nuclear program advances and its economy recovers. The Iranian regime remains an extremist, revolutionary power, led by a zealously anti-American Supreme Leader to whom President Rouhani is steadfastly loyal. And, counter to the Administration's alarmist predictions about war, sanctions remain the primary non-violent policy tool available to the Administration to counter the Iranian regime's continued intransigence.
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