Eye on Iran: What Iran Won't Say About the Bomb

Join UANI           Top Stories NYT: "Over the course of a dozen years, ever since atomic sleuths from the United Nations began scrutinizing Iran's nuclear program, hundreds of inspections have uncovered a hidden world of labs and sprawling factories, some ringed by barbed wire and antiaircraft guns, others camouflaged or buried deep underground. Yet despite that progress, Iran has so far managed to evade a central question - whether it knows how to build an atom bomb. With negotiators from six world powers facing a deadline later this month to cut a basic agreement with Iran on the fate of its nuclear program, much of the public discussion has focused on curtailing Iran's uranium plants and plutonium complex, its pathways to atomic fuel. In short, the buzz centers on brawn, not brains. But quietly, the United States and its allies are also discussing whether a final deal should compel Tehran to reveal the depth of its atomic knowledge. That inner debate, as one European official in the midst of the negotiations put it, turns on 'whether to force Iran to explain its past' - especially before 2003, when American intelligence officials believe Iran operated a full-scale equivalent of the Manhattan Project - 'or whether to focus on the future.' ... 'Iran's most serious verification shortcoming,' Olli Heinonen, the former chief inspector, now at Harvard, said recently, 'remains its unwillingness to address concerns about the past and possibly ongoing military dimensions of its nuclear program.'" http://t.uani.com/1EuXOXq NYT: "President Obama said that he and other world leaders have offered Iran an 'extraordinarily reasonable deal' that will test whether the leadership of the Islamic nation is serious about at last resolving the dispute over its nuclear program. Even as negotiators appear close to an agreement, Mr. Obama highlighted the challenge of what comes next: ensuring that any pact forged in Geneva can pass muster in Tehran, where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, has expressed deep skepticism about a settlement with the outside world. 'We have made progress in narrowing the gaps, but those gaps still exist,' Mr. Obama said in an interview with CBS News that aired Sunday on 'Face the Nation.' 'And I would say that over the next month or so, we're going to be able to determine whether or not their system is able to accept what would be an extraordinarily reasonable deal, if in fact, as they say, they are only interested in peaceful nuclear programs.'" http://t.uani.com/1HmLbfq Bloomberg: "A group of 47 Republican senators has written an open letter to Iran's leaders warning them that any nuclear deal they sign with President Barack Obama's administration won't last after Obama leaves office. Organized by freshman Senator Tom Cotton and signed by the chamber's entire party leadership as well as potential 2016 presidential contenders Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, the letter is meant not just to discourage the Iranian regime from signing a deal but also to pressure the White House into giving Congress some authority over the process. 'It has come to our attention while observing your nuclear negotiations with our government that you may not fully understand our constitutional system ... Anything not approved by Congress is a mere executive agreement,' the senators wrote. 'The next president could revoke such an executive agreement with the stroke of a pen and future Congresses could modify the terms of the agreement at any time.' Arms-control advocates and supporters of the negotiations argue that the next president and the next Congress will have a hard time changing or canceling any Iran deal -- -- which is reportedly near done -- especially if it is working reasonably well. Many inside the Republican caucus, however, hope that by pointing out the long-term fragility of a deal with no congressional approval -- something Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has also noted -- the Iranian regime might be convinced to think twice." http://t.uani.com/1FzIiGR     Nuclear Program & Negotiations AFP: "President Barack Obama assured in a taped television interview Sunday that the United States was prepared to 'walk away' from nuclear talks with Iran if a verifiable deal cannot be reached with Tehran. Obama made the comments Saturday as US Secretary of State John Kerry was in Paris to smooth over differences with France, which has pressed for greater guarantees that an agreement will stop Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon, and a bruising speech to Congress earlier in the week by Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. 'If there is no deal then we walk away,' Obama said in the interview, which aired on 'CBS News Sunday Morning' and in expanded form on the network's 'Face the Nation' show. 'If we cannot verify that they are not going to obtain a nuclear weapon, that there's a breakout period so that even if they cheated we would be able to have enough time to take action -- if we don't have that kind of deal, then we're not going to take it,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1Bj64qT NYT: "Secretary of State John Kerry wrapped up a week of diplomacy in Europe and the Middle East within what many experts say is striking distance of an initial accord with Iran over its nuclear program. But with an end-of-March deadline for drafting the outline of a potential agreement, Mr. Kerry still faces an array of challenges in completing that understanding and defending it to Congress. Mr. Kerry's immediate task on Saturday was to present a tableau of unity with counterparts from France, Britain and Germany a day after the French foreign minister, Laurent Fabius, complained that the emerging accord did not yet go far enough to constrain Iran's nuclear capabilities. 'There has been progress but as far as the volume, checks and duration of the envisaged commitments are concerned, the situation is still insufficient,' Mr. Fabius said Friday. 'So there is more work to be done.'" http://t.uani.com/18uOF2O Politico: "Negotiators trying to strike a nuclear deal with Iran believe they may soon reach a framework agreement - but probably not before a March 24 deadline for Congressional action that threatens to blow up the talks. The good news for President Obama is that there may be less to that deadline than meets the eye, which means the nuclear talks could continue for several more weeks before the Senate is in position to take a vote that Obama says could lead to war. At issue is the patience of a group of Senate Democrats who say they'll back new sanctions legislation if the administration can't produce the outlines of a nuclear deal by March 24. At issue is the patience of a group of Senate Democrats who say they'll back new sanctions legislation if the administration can't produce the outlines of a nuclear deal by March 24." http://t.uani.com/1952SF9 Reuters: "Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog hold talks in Tehran on Monday, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported, ahead of a March deadline for a framework agreement on Iran's nuclear program between Tehran and six major powers. 'Officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will discuss remaining issues like explosives testing and neutron calculations,' ISNA said, without giving a source. 'Also issues alleged by the IAEA, related to the framework agreement, will be discussed during their one-day visit.' The IAEA says Iran has still not addressed specific issues that could feed suspicions it may have researched an atomic bomb, including questions on alleged research activities into explosives testing and neutron calculations." http://t.uani.com/1AaqfU7 WashPost: "Former senators Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.), Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) and Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) are banding together to urge Congress, via a new 501(c)(4) entity, the American Security Initiative, to pass the Corker-Menendez bill, formally known as the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act. It began with a $500,000 ad buy meant to underscore the seriousness of an Iranian nuclear bomb. In separate interviews with Right Turn, Coleman and Bayh stressed that the effort must be bipartisan. Coleman makes the case that a congressional vote should not be a 'heavy lift.' He says that any deal with Iran should give the chance 'for the people's representatives - just as we have done for 25 other nuclear arms deals' the opportunity to review and vote on it. He stresses, 'There is a benefit to getting Congress to approve and get a long-term, binding contract with Iran. If you don't, you run the risk of being challenged or changed by the next president.'" http://t.uani.com/1AVNQqy Business Insider: "The National Iranian American Council (NIAC) has emerged as one of the most influential foreign policy advocacy groups in Washington and has helped affect an almost complete reversal in US policy towards Tehran. But a Feb 10th decision in the US federal Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia casts an unsavory light on the organization and its activities. In the decision, two circuit judges and a senior circuit judge forced NIAC to pay '$183,480.09 in monetary sanctions' to a blogger named Hassan Daioleslam to reimburse him for the money he's spent fighting a defamation lawsuit NIAC brought against him in 2008, and that was dismissed 4 years later... The Feb. 10 decision from the appeals court, written by judge Robert Wilkins, determined that NIAC had 'flouted multiple court orders' and improperly delayed its delivery of documents to Daioleslam during the discovery portion of the lawsuit and even withheld certain documents. During the trial, the NIAC provided inconsistent statements about its internal computer system and recordkeeping, and then used those later-disproved claims to drag out the discovery process for years. Remarkably, NIAC hoarded and shielded documents during the discovery portion of a lawsuit that it had itself brought to court." http://t.uani.com/1HmRFec Military Matters Defense-Update: "Iran unveiled yesterday a new, long range surface-launched land attack cruise missile. The new missile called 'Soumar' was presented yesterday to the Iranian Defense Minister, Brigadier general Hossein Dehqan. Unveiling the missile developed by Iranian scientists Dehqan said the new weapon 'will increase Iran's deterrence might'... The missile seems to be one of the variants of the 'Meshkat' cruise missile, announced by the director of the Iranian Defense Ministry's Aerospace Organization, Brigadier General Mehdi Farahi three years ago. 'Meshkat cruise missile, which God willing will be unveiled soon, has a range of more than 2,000 kilometers.'" http://t.uani.com/1BYsBtN Congressional Sanctions Bloomberg: "Anyone who thinks that possible charges of corruption against Sen. Robert Menendez might prompt him to shy away from the fight he has waged for more Iran sanctions has another think coming. The Justice Department, according to multiple news agencies, is preparing corruption charges against Menendez for favors he allegedly did on behalf of a Democratic donor in exchange for gifts. But a spokesman for the New Jersey Democrat, Adam Sharon, told me Friday that his boss still intends to press for triggered sanctions on Iran and for Congress to have a role in reviewing any Iran deal if one is reached. 'The Senator will continue to push forward on the pressing foreign policy issues of the day, to include the two Iran bills he co-authored, which are poised to move forward pending the outcome of the March 24th negotiating deadline,' Sharon told me... Since the end of November, Menendez has tried to pick up those Democrats to support sanctions the leader of his own party has fought against. For his Republican co-sponsor Kirk, the timing of the leak about the Justice Department coming so close to the deadline for Iran talks is too much of a coincidence. 'On the eve of a bad deal with Iran, the timing of leaks makes many worry that there's a vendetta against Senator Menendez for his many years of good work on preventing the Ayatollahs from getting nuclear weapons,' Kirk told me." http://t.uani.com/1AarkLt Iraq Crisis AFP: "The US military's top officer said Iran is bolstering the firepower of Shiite militias in Iraq but it remains unclear if Tehran is a help or a hindrance to the fight against Islamic State jihadists. General Martin Dempsey, speaking to reporters aboard his plane en route to Bahrain and Iraq, said he would raise his concerns about Iran's influence in talks with Iraq's leaders --- days after Baghdad launched a large-scale operation to recapture Tikrit from the Islamic State group. The Shiite militias, armed and advised by Iran, are playing a major role in the Tikrit offensive. But the US-led coalition -- which has no dealings with the Shiite fighters -- has been markedly absent from the operation and allies fear Iran's activity could aggravate sectarian tensions. Dempsey said US-led air strikes in recent months to the north near Baiji had put pressure on the IS extremists, laying the ground for the offensive on Tikrit. 'The Tikrit operation is only possible because of the air campaign we've been running around Baiji,' where the IS was pushed away from oil refineries, Dempsey said." http://t.uani.com/1KL1tUS Human Rights IHR: "The execution wave continues in Iran. During the last 6 days more than 60 executions have been reported and 43 of these executions have been confirmed. Three prisoners were executed in the prison of Ardebil on Saturday morning 7 March, reported the Iranian state media today... According to reports from human rights groups at least 9 prisoners were executed in the Gehzelhesar prison of Karaj, on Saturday March 7." http://t.uani.com/19507Ud ICHRI: "The Iranian Parliament should immediately withdraw the pending Plan to Promote Virtue and Prevent Vice, which explicitly calls for Basij militias to enforce strict hijab (female dress), the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran said today. This plan not only violates the rights of all Iranian women, it also presents a clear and present danger to their continued safety. Further, the Iranian Judiciary should bring all efforts to bear to identify and bring to justice the perpetrators of the recent string of acid attacks against women in Iran, which have been linked to the extra-judicial enforcement of hijab called for in the Plan, the Campaign added. The acid attacks, which began in late 2014 in the Iranian city of Isfahan, involved unidentified men flinging acid into the faces of women with whom they had no history of personal grudges. At least fourteen attacks have been reported, and eyewitnesses have reported that the assailants proclaimed they were defending hijab during the assaults. No one has been charged in any of the attacks." http://t.uani.com/1EKnRIA Domestic Politics AP: "Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei made a public appearance Sunday amid rumors about his health, as a relative dismissed the claims as gossip meant to derail ongoing nuclear talks with world powers. State television aired pictures Sunday of the 75-year-old Khamenei addressing a group of environmental officials and activists at his residence in central Tehran. He appeared to look comfortable and healthy in the footage. Foreign-based news websites in recent days have claimed that Khamenei, who has the final word on all matters in Iran, had been hospitalized in critical condition." http://t.uani.com/1GjboKC Opinion & Analysis UANI Research Analyst Julie Shain in Algemeiner: "Iran's chief negotiator, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, was interviewed on NBC this week. Below are some of the assertions he made, and the truth behind these claims." http://t.uani.com/1F2SmtJ Robert Satloff in WINEP: "On one key issue, however, Netanyahu offered a hint of an explosive analytical battle that may soon develop between U.S. and Israeli intelligence services. The key sentence was this: 'Because Iran's nuclear program would be left largely intact, Iran's breakout time would be very short -- about a year by U.S. assessment, even shorter by Israel's.' Achieving a year's warning about Iran's effort to break out is the centerpiece of the Obama administration's argument in defense of the emerging deal. Strip aside the threats ('the alternative is war') and assertions ('this is the path to a new, reformed, more moderate Iranian regime') suggested by advocates of the deal thus far, and the claim that the would-be agreement provides a lengthy period for U.S. and allied response to an Iranian breakout is the most convincing argument in its favor. The last four words in Netanyahu's sentence suggest that Israel's intelligence agencies, not just Israel's prime minister, disagree with that assessment. Indeed, in the wake of the speech, conversations with two long-time Israeli defense officials confirmed that Israeli intelligence does indeed dispute the claim that the proposed deal's collective elements will provide one year of warning, at least given what is currently known about the negotiations. They not only raised the question of how U.S. analysts can know with certainty that warning time will remain intact in year five or year ten of an agreement, but also suggested that Israel believes warning time could be considerably less than claimed even at the start of an agreement.  To be sure, some of this could be definitional -- for example, disagreements over what exactly constitutes breakout and when precisely the clock starts ticking. But Netanyahu's words suggest that a more fundamental dispute between U.S. and Israeli intelligence may be brewing. For the Obama administration, this would not be welcome news. Since Israel's security and intelligence establishment has not been viewed as a cheerleader for the prime minister's overall Iran policy, its analysis of the breakout issue will not be easily dismissed; instead, it is likely to be given substantial credence in U.S. policy and political circles. For the administration, a fight against Israeli intelligence -- should it choose to emerge from the shadows and play a role in this debate -- poses a very different set of challenges than a fight against Israeli political leaders. Taken together, these developments may indicate that a new chapter is about to be written in the saga of the U.S.-Israeli breach over the emerging Iran nuclear deal." http://t.uani.com/1EKn0Ys          Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.