Wednesday, April 8, 2015

Eye on Iran: Iran: We'll Start Using Fastest Centrifuges on Day Deal Takes Effect






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Times of Israel: "Iran will begin using its latest generation IR-8 centrifuges as soon as its nuclear deal with the world powers goes into effect, Iran's foreign minister and nuclear chief told members of parliament on Tuesday, according to Iran's semi-official FARS news agency... If accurate, the report makes a mockery of the world powers' much-hailed framework agreement with Iran, since such a move clearly breaches the US-published terms of the deal, and would dramatically accelerate Iran's potential progress to the bomb. Iran has said that its IR-8 centrifuges enrich uranium 20 times faster than the IR-1 centrifuges it currently uses. According to the FARS report, 'Iran's foreign minister and nuclear chief both told a closed-door session of the parliament on Tuesday that the country would inject UF6 gas into the latest generation of its centrifuge machines as soon as a final nuclear deal goes into effect by Tehran and the six world powers.'" http://t.uani.com/1FljNLN

Roll Call: "It's no surprise that Speaker John A. Boehner isn't happy with the Obama administration's Iranian nuclear deal, but his level of discontent seems to be mounting. While Boehner refrained from saying much of anything about the nuclear negotiations during his trip to Israel last week, the Ohio Republican is stepping up his criticism after President Barack Obama acknowledged Tuesday that, under the framework, Iran would be about a year away from a nuclear bomb for the first 13 years of the agreement - and would be able to produce a weapon almost immediately after that. 'President Obama himself today confirmed exactly what critics of the deal have argued: his 'deal' would pave the way for a nuclear-armed Iran in the near future,' Boehner said in a statement. 'The Iranian regime has consistently taken a long-view on its regional - indeed global - ambitions of exporting its revolution. After multiple evasions of international inspections to date, no one should believe that the proposed inspections and verification are bullet-proof.'" http://t.uani.com/1O8RZRq

Algemeiner: "'Open confusion' reigned today at the State Department after spokeswoman Marie Harf tried to withdraw a quote from President Barack Obama regarding Iran's nuclear breakout time, advocacy group The Israel Project said... The President said that, 'in year 13, 14, 15' of the deal, 'they have advanced centrifuges that enrich uranium fairly rapidly, and at that point, the breakout times would have shrunk almost down to zero,' and that the assurances of a 1-year warning time would be available to the international community for 'at least well over a decade. And then in years 13 and 14, it is possible that those breakout times would have been much shorter.' ... In the State Department's attempted response to queries about the President's statement on Tuesday, Spokeswoman Marie Harf told reporters that the President was talking about a hypothetical sscneario in which the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) had not been enacted. Harf asserted that while the President's words 'were a little mixed up there,' he was in fact 'referring to a scenario in which there was no deal,' adding that the President's scenario was 'more of a hypothetical, 'well look, without a deal, this is what could possibly happen.' He was not indicating what would happen under an agreement in those years.' The Israel Project outright rejected Harf's explanation noting that the President wasn't muddled, as Harf asserted." http://t.uani.com/1E54ACm

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

NYT: "President Obama has compared the preliminary accord on limiting Iran's nuclear program to signing a contract to buy a house, emphasizing that the deal is not done until it closes. But a more accurate analogy might be that the administration bought a house under construction and is still haggling over where the windows and doors should go. As the White House opens its campaign to sell the merits of the nuclear deal, the unexplained elements of the agreement are about such basics, including precisely the kind of research and development Iran would be able to conduct on new types of centrifuges to make uranium and how fast it could produce the nuclear material for a bomb after the 10-year agreement period expired. Those gaps have already been seized upon by critics, from Israel to Saudi Arabia to the halls of Congress, as they seek to influence the shape of the final agreement, scheduled to be completed by June 30." http://t.uani.com/1DjXGZi

Daily Star (Lebanon): "A nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers will strengthen Tehran's role in the region and rules out the specter of a regional war, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said Monday. 'There is no doubt that the Iranian nuclear deal will be big and important to the region,' Nasrallah said in a live interview with Syria's Al-Ekhbariya TV. 'The agreement, God willing, rules out the specter of regional war and world war.' 'Iran will become richer and wealthier and will also become more influential. This will also reinforce the position of its allies.' 'A stronger and wealthier Iran in the coming phase will be able to stand by its allies, and especially the Palestinian resistance, more than at any other time in history,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1FBpUOK

NYT: "Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iranian hard-liners have been free to take to the streets and object to any form of compromise with the West, and particularly the United States. But when a conspicuously small group of hard-liners did so on Tuesday morning in front of the Parliament building, holding up placards and shouting slogans against the nuclear framework agreed to last week in Lausanne, Switzerland, the Iranian Interior Ministry condemned the demonstration as illegal, because the protesters had failed to obtain a permit. There were also very few reporters. It was perhaps the first time that conservatives - in this case mostly young people genuinely disappointed over the compromises Iran has made to reach a nuclear agreement - seemed disconnected from the power structure here. Analysts say the message from the top is clear: Get with the program. Senior officials, important clerics, lawmakers and Revolutionary Guards commanders, who in the past have reflexively opposed any accommodation with the West, now go out of their way to laud Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and his team of negotiators, as well as the government of President Hassan Rouhani." http://t.uani.com/1IsuzWZ

Mehr (Iran): "Iran's Zarif and Ali Akbar Salehi attended a closed session in the Parliament today to brief the MPs on Swiss Statement regarding Iran and the 5+1 nuclear talks... Zarif was also quoted to have asserted that the additional protocol must be passed by the Parliament. He stressed that Iran would allow no online cameras to be installed in nuclear facilities as the country had have several tragic experiences in which Iranian nuclear scientists had been assassinated due to having been identified." http://t.uani.com/1O8V18p

Politico: "Last week's nuclear agreement with Iran closes what some experts had called a potentially major loophole that could make it easy for Iran to reconstitute its program, according to unpublished details of the deal described by U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz. Moniz, who is taking the lead in explaining the deal for the Obama administration, told POLITICO in an interview that Iran won't be allowed to reduce its 11-ton stockpile of partially enriched uranium by converting it to an oxide form, a process that is easily reversed. That process would be akin to turning water into ice cubes, which can be melted at any time, experts say. 'Simply converting it does not alleviate the issue,' Moniz said in the interview Monday evening. 'Simple conversion to a different chemical form would not count.' Instead, Moniz said, the deal requires Iran either to ship the uranium out of the country or to dilute it to a form similar to its harmless natural state... In effect, dilution would return the low-enriched uranium to its natural state, giving the material no value to Iran above mined uranium." http://t.uani.com/1akRe8X

Reuters: "Opponents of Iran's initial agreement to curb its nuclear program are being 'disingenuous' when they say the deal could still allow the Middle Eastern state to build nuclear weapons, the head of the Central Intelligence Agency said on Tuesday. The initial accord reached last week between Iran and major world powers - which would lift crippling economic sanctions in exchange for Iran's agreement to step back from developing nuclear weapons - is likely the most realistic deal that could be reached, CIA Director John Brennan told an audience of students and faculty at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, just outside Boston. 'The individuals who say that this deal provides a pathway for Iran to a bomb are being wholly disingenuous, in my view, if they know the facts and understand what is required for a program,' Brennan said at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government. 'I certainly am pleasantly surprised that the Iranians have agreed to so much here.'" http://t.uani.com/1Cff5hM

Politico: "No single party to the Iran deal could decide to go easy on the Islamic republic if it tries to cheat on the nuclear agreement, U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said Monday... 'No one country could block a snap-back of sanctions,' Moniz, speaking to reporters at the White House, said without specifying how the U.S. and its allies would go about reimposing economic punishments if Iran refuses inspections or is caught breaking other provisions of the agreement. But given that the six world powers taking part in the agreement include countries that aren't always on the same page as the U.S. - primarily Russia and China - preventing any one of them from protecting Iran could be key to shoring up support in the United States." http://t.uani.com/1GoRFNn

Congressional Action

Reuters: "Democrats are aligning with Republicans to support a bill giving Congress the opportunity to approve or reject sanctions relief in an Iran nuclear deal, and are close to forming a veto-proof majority that U.S. President Barack Obama says could undermine the delicate final stage of negotiations. The support for the legislation by lawmakers in Obama's party illustrates the depth of concern in Washington over the threat posed by Iran and the concern of many lawmakers that they are being shut out of the process to contain it... 'There's no way that Congress should allow the congressional sanctions regime to be negotiated away without saying a word,' Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who helped Corker write the legislation but who also supports the administration's nuclear negotiations with Iran, told Reuters. Senator Chuck Schumer, one of the most influential Democrats and a co-sponsor of Corker's bill, has reaffirmed his support for a congressional role." http://t.uani.com/1CUE7Fm

The Hill: "The White House's nuclear deal with Iran could hinge on President Obama's most trusted Democratic ally: Nancy Pelosi... Pelosi and a long list of House Democrats - hailing last week's framework deal as real progress toward a historic accord between longtime adversaries - seem ready to give the White House leeway... If every House Republican voted for a Corker-like bill, the GOP would need about 45 Democratic votes to override Obama. Some Democrats have already endorsed such a plan, and voting 'no' could be used against members of the party who face a challenging reelection race in 2016... The coming debate will be a significant test of Pelosi's leadership. The California Democrat's whipping ability is legendary, exemplified most famously by the passage of ObamaCare. But division in her ranks over the Iran talks has been long-standing." http://t.uani.com/1E52ceO

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Iranian counterpart Hassan Rouhani agreed to boost trade and signed a slew of deals at a meeting on Tuesday, but steered clear of directly addressing differences over conflict-ridden Yemen. Erdogan paid a one-day visit to Iran at a time when relations between Ankara and Tehran -- already strained by disagreements over Syria -- have been battered by events in Yemen, where they have backed opposing combatants... The two presidents signed eight agreements and took pains to emphasise the need for greater economic cooperation, with Erdogan saying they were far behind a target to lift trade volume to $30 billion, from $14 billion last year." http://t.uani.com/1PjDDzk

WSJ: "Top Iranian officials are traveling this week to Beijing to meet executives at one of China's largest energy companies to discuss oil projects after a political agreement to eventually lift Western sanctions was struck, people familiar with the matter said. The meetings with Sinopec Group, a state-owned Chinese company, come as China is looking to secure its interests in Iran following a tentative agreement last week with the U.S. and European powers that could enable the return of major Western oil companies to the world's fourth-largest oil patch. They are also among the first signs that foreign companies are moving to position themselves for Iran's opening up to the world if sanctions over its nuclear program are lifted. Iran and the six major powers still must hammer out final details of the agreement by June 30... The Iranian delegation will include Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh and the deputy oil minister for international affairs, Amir-Hossein Zamaninia. They plan to meet the management of Sinopec, China's largest oil refiner, an Iranian official and people close to Sinopec said." http://t.uani.com/1CnN6LQ

Tehran Times: "The framework agreement on Iran's nuclear deal has generated a gold-rush atmosphere in the business world. The former Swiss ambassador in Tehran talks of a 'very interesting market' and a Swiss trade delegation is travelling to Iran at the end of the month... [Livia] Leu Agosti is currently a delegate for trade agreements at the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) and will travel in this capacity with Swiss business leaders to Iran... The trade delegation visit, from April 26-29, will be the first such Swiss trip for ten years." http://t.uani.com/1E07Ejc

Reuters: "South African mobile phone operator MTN Group has said easing of sanctions against Iran would allow it to transfer about $1 billion in accumulated dividends and a loan repayment from its Iranian unit. MTN, which owns 49 percent of unlisted Irancell, the Middle Eastern country's second-biggest mobile phone operator by subscribers, has been restricted from repatriating money from Iran owing to the sanctions imposed by the West. 'We have in total an equivalent of about $1 billion, which is both a loan repayment from Irancell due back to MTN, as well as accumulated dividends,' Nik Kershaw, head of investor relations at MTN told Reuters on Tuesday." http://t.uani.com/1NTtMfQ

Sanctions Enforcement

Reuters: "The European Union re-imposed sanctions on an Iranian bank and 32 Iranian shipping companies on Wednesday, using new legal grounds, after the measures were struck down by a European court. Coming days after Iran and six major powers reached a framework agreement to end a long-running dispute over Iran's nuclear programme, the EU's move is a signal that the 28-nation bloc will keep up sanctions pressure on Iran until a final nuclear deal is sealed. The EU's second-highest court annulled an EU asset freeze on Bank Tejarat and 40 Iranian shipping companies in January, finding fault with the legal grounds given by the EU. The EU, as it has done in other cases, responded by re-listing Bank Tejarat and 32 of the Iranian shipping firms, including Hamburg-based Ocean Capital Administration GmbH, using new legal grounds. Eight firms were not put back on the list published in the EU's Official Journal on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1aJROxP

Terrorism

Daily Telegraph: "Iran has sent Hamas's military wing tens of millions of dollars to help it rebuild the network of tunnels in Gaza destroyed by Israel's invasion last summer, intelligence sources have told The Sunday Telegraph. It is also funding new missile supplies to replenish stocks used to bombard residential neighbourhoods in Israel during the war, code-named Operation Protective Edge by Israel. The renewed funding is a sign that the two old allies are putting behind them a rift caused by the conflict in Syria, where Shia Iran is backing President Bashar al-Assad against Hamas's mainly Sunni allies. Iran has sponsored Hamas's military operations for years, despite the contradiction that Hamas is part of the worldwide, Sunni-supremacist Muslim Brotherhood, while Iran is Shia." http://t.uani.com/1DJtSqZ

Opinion & Analysis

Henry Kissinger & George Shultz in WSJ: "The announced framework for an agreement on Iran's nuclear program has the potential to generate a seminal national debate. Advocates exult over the nuclear constraints it would impose on Iran. Critics question the verifiability of these constraints and their longer-term impact on regional and world stability. The historic significance of the agreement and indeed its sustainability depend on whether these emotions, valid by themselves, can be reconciled. Debate regarding technical details of the deal has thus far inhibited the soul-searching necessary regarding its deeper implications. For 20 years, three presidents of both major parties proclaimed that an Iranian nuclear weapon was contrary to American and global interests-and that they were prepared to use force to prevent it. Yet negotiations that began 12 years ago as an international effort to prevent an Iranian capability to develop a nuclear arsenal are ending with an agreement that concedes this very capability, albeit short of its full capacity in the first 10 years. Mixing shrewd diplomacy with open defiance of U.N. resolutions, Iran has gradually turned the negotiation on its head. Iran's centrifuges have multiplied from about 100 at the beginning of the negotiation to almost 20,000 today. The threat of war now constrains the West more than Iran. While Iran treated the mere fact of its willingness to negotiate as a concession, the West has felt compelled to break every deadlock with a new proposal. In the process, the Iranian program has reached a point officially described as being within two to three months of building a nuclear weapon. Under the proposed agreement, for 10 years Iran will never be further than one year from a nuclear weapon and, after a decade, will be significantly closer... The final stages of the nuclear talks have coincided with Iran's intensified efforts to expand and entrench its power in neighboring states. Iranian or Iranian client forces are now the pre-eminent military or political element in multiple Arab countries, operating beyond the control of national authorities. With the recent addition of Yemen as a battlefield, Tehran occupies positions along all of the Middle East's strategic waterways and encircles archrival Saudi Arabia, an American ally. Unless political restraint is linked to nuclear restraint, an agreement freeing Iran from sanctions risks empowering Iran's hegemonic efforts... If the world is to be spared even worse turmoil, the U.S. must develop a strategic doctrine for the region. Stability requires an active American role. For Iran to be a valuable member of the international community, the prerequisite is that it accepts restraint on its ability to destabilize the Middle East and challenge the broader international order. Until clarity on an American strategic political concept is reached, the projected nuclear agreement will reinforce, not resolve, the world's challenges in the region. Rather than enabling American disengagement from the Middle East, the nuclear framework is more likely to necessitate deepening involvement there-on complex new terms. History will not do our work for us; it helps only those who seek to help themselves." http://t.uani.com/1DJupt5

Abdulrahman al-Rashed in Asharq al-Awsat: "I tried to ignore U.S. President Barack Obama's interview with the New York Times because I am sure it's part of his propaganda campaign for the initial deal with Iran. Still, the interview's impact cannot be ignored. Obama provoked many here in the region, a lot more than he calmed their fears! Thomas Friedman, one of the Times' most prominent authors and one of the most knowledgeable about the region's affairs, interviewed the president. Perhaps this was why the nation's leader was dragged into arguing his points, instead of justifying them. What's strange about the conversation was that Obama commended the Iranian regime and justified its actions, while implying a sense of guilt over what the U.S. had done against Iran. I don't know what books the American president reads before he goes to bed or how he understands events of the past three decades. Tehran's mentality and practices are close to those of al-Qaeda -religious, fascist and hostile towards anyone who opposes their ideology. Tehran's understanding of the world paints others as believers and infidels. It is Iran that was responsible for much of the violence in the region under the banner of religion - and this was around 15 years before al-Qaeda even emerged. And as much as Obama was apologetic to the Iranian regime and generous with his gift of a nuclear agreement, he was harsh towards Arabs, and his harshness was unjustified. For example, he said that instead of issuing statements on their fear of Iran, they must stand against the crimes of Bashar al-Assad... Then Obama criticized his Gulf allies by saying their fears are domestic, as a result of a lack of satisfaction among their people, as well as extremism, terrorism and unemployment. Of course, this is all true and no one denies the presence of domestic challenges. However it does not mean the Gulf will not voice its irritation at the agreement that the Americans reached with Iran and which set the Gulf's hand free in a manner that threatens it. There's no contradiction here. It's as if we are telling the American president that he does not have to worry about the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and al-Qaeda because he has national problems such as unemployment and inadequate healthcare. These two issues are not contradictory! ... What's stranger is that after Obama's statements were published, the president's deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes addressed the Arabs of the Gulf, commending and reassuring them - and thus, some of his statements contradicted what Obama told Friedman." http://t.uani.com/1ycUej0
        

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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