Arabian Peninsula Violence Escalates After Second IS Bombing in Saudi Arabia
Sure
enough, the Islamic state (IS) has launched those additional attacks
we’ve been warning about in “ISIS Executes Dual Bombings Across Arabian
Peninsula, Qods Force Preps Response” and “ISIS Saudi Threat Continues.”
The last bombing occurred about a week ago in Qatif, an area that we’ve
reported back in late-MAR 15 was a likely location for an IS attack.
This latest attack occurred in the same-eastern area (Dammam,
specifically). The attack involved a suicide bomber wearing woman’s
clothes detonating himself near the entrance of a Shia Mosque yesterday.
Again, this isn’t surprising because IS’ strategy is to target Saudi
government and Qods Force/Shia proxy elements inside the Kingdom that
are working to disrupt their support networks. Unfortunately, we can
expect to see a lot more of this as the summer progresses – and its
going to likely involve targeting US Diplomatic installations and staff.
Explosion Near Shiite Mosque Kills 4 in Eastern Saudi Arabia
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/world/middleeast/mosque-bombing-saudi-arabia-shiites-dammam.html?_r=0
ISIS Executes Dual Bombings Across Arabian Peninsula, Qods Force Preps Response
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6618
ISIS Saudi Threat Continues
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=5698
The scene of the Dammam blast
Source: Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Unfortunately this is just part of the escalating violence plaguing the Arabian Peninsula. Just across the border in Yemen, UAE SOF personnel on the ground have been reaching out to the remnants of pro-Hadi units that broke away from the military when the Houthis seized control of the government. The purpose of this outreach is to better coordinate a joint-effort for securing Hadramawt, which is where the Saudi-led coalition intends to set up the new opposition government. In fact, pro-Hadi Chief of Staff MG Muhammad Ali Maqdashi returned to Hadramawt to help set up the new coordination center. He’s reportedly focused on linking up with the remaining pro-Hadi factions to begin laying the groundwork for an offensive. However, whether or not Hadi himself returns to the country if/when Hadramawt is secured remains “iffy” at best. If he proves to be a liability (some think he already is), then the Saudi government may choose to replace him with former Yemeni Interior Minister MG Abdo Hussein al-Tarab, as we stated in “The Yemen Octagon: GCC vs Iran vs Houthis vs AQAP vs Islamic State.” However, there’s an increased Houthi SAM threat in the Province and the local Hadrami tribe are little more than opportunists known for constantly changing allegiances. They’re basically mercenaries.
The Yemen Octagon: GCC vs Iran vs Houthis vs AQAP vs Islamic State
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=5931
MG al-Tarab might be Hadi’s replacement sooner than you think
Source: Getty Images
Meanwhile AQAP continues to consolidate their forces in Mukalla while trying to hunt down individuals serving as informant for the Qods Force and anti-Iran/Houthi coalition.
Individuals who have backgrounds with the Yemeni National Security Bureau’s (NSB) Mukalla office are of particular interest to AQAP. Despite some setbacks inside Mukalla (senior AQAP figure Hasan al-Hada was allegedly killed in mid-MAY), the jihadist group has made impressive strides in building relationships with the local tribes. AQAP’s Shabwah Emir Saad Muhammad Atif has made similar gains. A great deal of AQAP’s growth has come from their ability to sustain themselves and attract recruits with money acquired from looting the banks in Mukalla. Still, it remains to be seen if these relationships prove to be more successful than the UAE SOF teams’ efforts.
We’re also aware of additional UAE and Saudi SOF teams have been deployed to embed with allied forces in order to increase their effectiveness against the IRGC-Qods Force, their Houthi proxies, AQAP and IS. Some of these teams have apparently also been deployed to Aden, where heavy fighting continues. We assess that these additional SOF teams are an indicator of a renewed effort to retake the airport. Should they successfully seize the airport, equipment can immediately begin to be sent in larger quantities in support of the anti-Iran/Houthi campaign. More importantly, it would present a critical location to send follow-on forces if so desired.
Fighters battle Houthis in Yemen’s Aden
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/05/29/Fighters-battle-Houthis-in-Yemen-s-southern-city-of-Aden.html
Fighters battle Houthis in Yemen’s southern city of Aden
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/30/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0OE2D320150530
GCC SOF Teams Alerted For Deployment, AQAP Gains Strength and Iran Preps For Attacks Against Saudi Arabia
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6056
Pro-Hadi forces holding a position in the Battle of Aden
Source: Associated Free Press
The Saudis have also increased their sorties targeting Qods Force and Houthi positions in Sadah. It is unknown if Qods Force External OPs Division BG Abdolreza Shahlai – who was personally selected by GEN Suleimani to oversee the Yemen campaign – was targeted in the strikes (check out “Failed State: Saudi Coalition Increases Ground Presence as Iran Begins Targeting the Kingdom, US” for more details on BG Shahlai). Additionally, the Saudis have been reportedly air-dropping weapons and equipment to anti-Houthi tribal forces in the area. However, those tribal forces will only be as reliable as long as the Saudis are writing the checks.
Failed State: Saudi Coalition Increases Ground Presence as Iran Begins Targeting the Kingdom, US
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6410
AQAP and Qods Force Make Their Moves in Yemen as Saudis Struggle to Maintain Coalition
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6078
CLICK TO READ THE REST
Explosion Near Shiite Mosque Kills 4 in Eastern Saudi Arabia
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/30/world/middleeast/mosque-bombing-saudi-arabia-shiites-dammam.html?_r=0
ISIS Executes Dual Bombings Across Arabian Peninsula, Qods Force Preps Response
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6618
ISIS Saudi Threat Continues
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=5698
The scene of the Dammam blast
Source: Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Unfortunately this is just part of the escalating violence plaguing the Arabian Peninsula. Just across the border in Yemen, UAE SOF personnel on the ground have been reaching out to the remnants of pro-Hadi units that broke away from the military when the Houthis seized control of the government. The purpose of this outreach is to better coordinate a joint-effort for securing Hadramawt, which is where the Saudi-led coalition intends to set up the new opposition government. In fact, pro-Hadi Chief of Staff MG Muhammad Ali Maqdashi returned to Hadramawt to help set up the new coordination center. He’s reportedly focused on linking up with the remaining pro-Hadi factions to begin laying the groundwork for an offensive. However, whether or not Hadi himself returns to the country if/when Hadramawt is secured remains “iffy” at best. If he proves to be a liability (some think he already is), then the Saudi government may choose to replace him with former Yemeni Interior Minister MG Abdo Hussein al-Tarab, as we stated in “The Yemen Octagon: GCC vs Iran vs Houthis vs AQAP vs Islamic State.” However, there’s an increased Houthi SAM threat in the Province and the local Hadrami tribe are little more than opportunists known for constantly changing allegiances. They’re basically mercenaries.
The Yemen Octagon: GCC vs Iran vs Houthis vs AQAP vs Islamic State
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=5931
MG al-Tarab might be Hadi’s replacement sooner than you think
Source: Getty Images
Meanwhile AQAP continues to consolidate their forces in Mukalla while trying to hunt down individuals serving as informant for the Qods Force and anti-Iran/Houthi coalition.
Individuals who have backgrounds with the Yemeni National Security Bureau’s (NSB) Mukalla office are of particular interest to AQAP. Despite some setbacks inside Mukalla (senior AQAP figure Hasan al-Hada was allegedly killed in mid-MAY), the jihadist group has made impressive strides in building relationships with the local tribes. AQAP’s Shabwah Emir Saad Muhammad Atif has made similar gains. A great deal of AQAP’s growth has come from their ability to sustain themselves and attract recruits with money acquired from looting the banks in Mukalla. Still, it remains to be seen if these relationships prove to be more successful than the UAE SOF teams’ efforts.
We’re also aware of additional UAE and Saudi SOF teams have been deployed to embed with allied forces in order to increase their effectiveness against the IRGC-Qods Force, their Houthi proxies, AQAP and IS. Some of these teams have apparently also been deployed to Aden, where heavy fighting continues. We assess that these additional SOF teams are an indicator of a renewed effort to retake the airport. Should they successfully seize the airport, equipment can immediately begin to be sent in larger quantities in support of the anti-Iran/Houthi campaign. More importantly, it would present a critical location to send follow-on forces if so desired.
Fighters battle Houthis in Yemen’s Aden
http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2015/05/29/Fighters-battle-Houthis-in-Yemen-s-southern-city-of-Aden.html
Fighters battle Houthis in Yemen’s southern city of Aden
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/30/us-yemen-security-idUSKBN0OE2D320150530
GCC SOF Teams Alerted For Deployment, AQAP Gains Strength and Iran Preps For Attacks Against Saudi Arabia
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6056
Pro-Hadi forces holding a position in the Battle of Aden
Source: Associated Free Press
The Saudis have also increased their sorties targeting Qods Force and Houthi positions in Sadah. It is unknown if Qods Force External OPs Division BG Abdolreza Shahlai – who was personally selected by GEN Suleimani to oversee the Yemen campaign – was targeted in the strikes (check out “Failed State: Saudi Coalition Increases Ground Presence as Iran Begins Targeting the Kingdom, US” for more details on BG Shahlai). Additionally, the Saudis have been reportedly air-dropping weapons and equipment to anti-Houthi tribal forces in the area. However, those tribal forces will only be as reliable as long as the Saudis are writing the checks.
Failed State: Saudi Coalition Increases Ground Presence as Iran Begins Targeting the Kingdom, US
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6410
AQAP and Qods Force Make Their Moves in Yemen as Saudis Struggle to Maintain Coalition
http://isisstudygroup.com/?p=6078
CLICK TO READ THE REST
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