Friday, May 15, 2015

Eye on Iran: Bill Giving Congress Right to Weigh In on Potential Iran Nuclear Deal Heads to White House






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WSJ: "The House on Thursday passed legislation giving Congress a chance to review any nuclear agreement reached with Iran next month. A bill that took weeks of deliberations to clear the Senate last week easily cleared the House, passing 400-25 under an expedited procedure used for uncontroversial measures. The measure now goes to the White House, where President Barack Obama is expected to sign it. The bill would prevent Mr. Obama from waiving sanctions on Iran for 30 days while Congress reviews any final agreement to diminish Iran's nuclear capabilities. Lawmakers would then be able to vote to disapprove the deal, or take no action. House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) applauded the vote, saying the legislation was the only way Congress would be able to stop a the president from negotiating 'a bad deal' with Iran. Skeptics have noted that even if lawmakers voted to disapprove an Iran deal, Mr. Obama could veto that action-and that critics of any deal aren't expected to have enough votes to override a veto... Republicans have accused the administration of being willing to make too many concessions to strike an agreement. Secretary of State John Kerry 'appears to be a guy who just wants a deal-whatever it takes,' Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (R., Tenn.) said Wednesday. 'The least little thing that Iran brings up, he's so anxious to resolve it.'" http://t.uani.com/1PKDbaC

NYT: "President Obama on Thursday offered Saudi Arabia and smaller Arab states new support to defend against potential missile strikes, maritime threats and cyberattacks from Iran, calling his commitment to their security 'ironclad' in an effort to allay fears that a nuclear accord will empower Tehran, their main rival in the Middle East... 'I am reaffirming our ironclad commitment to the security of our gulf partners,' Mr. Obama said at a news conference at the wooded presidential retreat here after seeing off the leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council, who had attended a day of private meetings here... Mr. Obama also sought to assuage the fears of Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations in the group that say that lifting oil and financial sanctions on Iran, as called for in the framework of a nuclear deal, would allow Iran to expand its influence from Iraq to Syria to Yemen. The president played down the threat, saying that no sanctions would be lifted unless Tehran complied with the stringent terms of the deal, that sanctions had already devastated Iran's economy and that, in any case, 'most of the destabilizing activity that Iran engages in is low-tech, low-cost activity.'" http://t.uani.com/1ICpjjH

WSJ: "Iranian patrol boats opened fire on a Singapore-flagged oil tanker as it moved through the Strait of Hormuz in a confrontation that raised new concerns about Iran's attempts to exert more control of commerce in the Persian Gulf. For the second time in two weeks, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Naval patrol boats confronted a commercial ship moving through the strait and ordered it into Iranian waters on Thursday, according to U.S. officials. Three Iranian patrol boats opened fire on the 600-foot-long Alpine Eternity when the tanker crew refused to follow their direction, then chased the tanker after it issued a call for help, U.S. officials said. While the Alpine Eternity made it safely to port in the United Arab Emirates, the confrontation is the latest in a string of developments that have heightened tensions in the Gulf region. During the past month, the U.S. military has sent an aircraft carrier to the Arabian Sea to deter an Iranian flotilla suspected of carrying arms for allies in Yemen and temporarily increased protection for American and British ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz." http://t.uani.com/1PnLLkD

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

AP: At the summit-closing news conference, Obama said Gulf leaders hadn't been asked to 'sign on the bottom line' to approve a work in process. They agreed, he said, 'that a comprehensive, verifiable solution that fully addresses the regional and international concerns about Iran's nuclear program is in the security interests of the international community, including our GCC partners.' Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, one of the attendees, was more circumspect. Arab leaders were 'assured that the objective is to deny Iran the ability to obtain a nuclear weapon,' al-Jubeir said, but he added: 'It would be too early to prejudge what we accept, what we don't accept.' http://t.uani.com/1RPcTI9

WashPost: "At the end of the meetings, Obama made clear that he would not sacrifice the chance for a historic diplomatic opening in Iran or delve deeper into to Syrian conflict to assuage the anxieties of gulf leaders. 'I believe that the Camp David commitments I have described today could mark the beginning of a new era of cooperation between our countries, a closer, stronger partnership that advances our mutual security for decades to come,' the president said. 'But I want to be very clear: The purpose of any strategic cooperation is not to perpetuate any long-term confrontation with Iran, or to even marginalize Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1A6oMne

The Hill: "The White House on Thursday dismissed concerns that a potential deal on Iran's nuclear program could trigger an 'arms race' in the Middle East. U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf have voiced concern ahead of a Camp David summit that the nuclear pact at the top of President Obama's agenda could embolden Tehran and threaten their security. A former high-ranking Saudi intelligence official has said his nation would pursue its own nuclear enrichment capability because the pending deal would leave parts of Iran's nuclear program intact. The White House sought to downplay the report. 'We've never had any indication from any of these countries that they are intending to pursue the type of domestic nuclear program that would raise concerns,' deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes told reporters at Camp David... Rhodes argued that the inspections and limits imposed on Iran's nuclear program should ease Gulf nations' concerns about a nuclear weapon with which Iran could menace the Middle East. 'There would be no need to see the type of regional arms race that would make an already volatile part of the world that much more unstable and unsecure,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1A4FYtJ

Reuters: "A U.S.-supplied missile shield to protect Gulf nations against Iranian attacks will take years to complete, requiring a step-up in regional trust, more U.S. sales of sensitive weapons, and intensive U.S. training to avoid mishaps in the volatile region. A renewed joint commitment to build the regional defense system was one of the few firm outcomes of Thursday's Camp David summit between President Barack Obama and Gulf allies, which were seeking fresh U.S. defense pledges ahead of a possible nuclear deal they fear will empower arch-rival Iran... A joint statement following the summit said that the GCC states were committed to developing a ballistic missile defense capability, including an early warning system, with U.S. technical help. Washington pledged to fast-track arms transfers to the GCC states and to send a team to the region in the coming weeks to discuss the details... An integrated defense system would allow Gulf countries to better repel an Iranian attack, stitching together their radars and interceptors to counter a range of different missiles." http://t.uani.com/1ICkYNu

Sanctions Relief


Reuters: "South Korea's imports of Iranian crude fell 6.5 percent in April from a year ago, with its oil shipments from the OPEC country in the first four months of 2015 dropping nearly 14 percent year-on-year to meet international sanction requirements... Seoul imported 516,918 tonnes of crude oil from Tehran last month, or 126,300 barrels per day (bpd), compared with 552,884 tonnes, or 135,088 bpd, a year ago, preliminary customs data from the world's fifth-largest crude oil importer showed on Friday. Asia's No.4 economy brought in 1.9 million tonnes, or 117,161 bpd, of crude from the Middle Eastern country in the period between January and April this year, below 2.2 million tonnes, or 135,982 bpd, in the same period last year. South Korean crude shipments from Iran in 2014 were 6.2 million tonnes, or 124,497 bpd, down 7.1 percent from the 2013 average of 134,000 bpd, according to data and Reuters calculations in January." http://t.uani.com/1H6Scio

Syria Conflict

Der Spiegel: "His war only lasted from one dawn to the next. When the sun rose for the second time over the Syrian city of Aleppo, Murad, a farmer from Afghanistan, was still cowering on the second floor of the house he was supposed to defend to the death. That, at least, is what his Iranian officer had ordered him to do. How, though, did he get to this war-torn city far away from his village in the mountains of Afghanistan? All he had wanted was an Iranian residence permit, he says. But at the end of his trip, he found himself fighting as a mercenary in the Syrian civil war on the side of the Bashar Assad regime... Up to 2 million Hazara live in Iran, most of them as illegal immigrants. It is an inexhaustible reservoir of the desperate, from which the Pasdars -- as Iran's Revolutionary Guards are called -- have recruited thousands for the war in Syria over the last year and a half." http://t.uani.com/1PnOrPd

Human Rights

Bloomberg:  "As a June 30 deadline approaches for a nuclear deal with Iran, the fate of four Americans imprisoned or missing in the Islamic Republic hangs over the talks and has provoked a debate on Capitol Hill. Three -- a former Marine, a pastor and a journalist -- are accused of espionage or undermining Iran's national security. Their families tell a different story: one was visiting his elderly grandmother; another was supporting Christian churches in private homes and an orphanage; the third is a reporter for the Washington Post. The fourth, former FBI agent Robert Levinson, 67, was reportedly on a CIA fact-finding mission when he went missing in 2007 on Kish Island off Iran's coast. In 2011, his family in Florida received photos from Afghanistan showing him in an orange jumpsuit. Their representatives in Congress call the men hostages." http://t.uani.com/1PKBA4I

NYT: "Amir Hekmati, the Marine veteran who is the longest-held American prisoner in Iran, reluctantly ended his second hunger strike this past weekend after relatives - particularly his terminally ill father - beseeched him to stop, Mr. Hekmati's sister said Thursday. The sister, Sarah, also said in an interview that despite Mr. Hekmati's despondence over the apparent paralysis of his case - the basis for his hunger strike protest - she believed that some Iranian officials would like to see him released and may be exerting their influence to at least make his imprisonment slightly less harsh. Even as he has asserted his innocence of any wrongdoing in letters to Iranian leaders and protested the conditions of his incarceration at Evin Prison in Tehran, there has been no sign that he has been further penalized in response, Ms. Hekmati said. And in recent months, she said, he has been able to call his family in Flint, Mich., for a few minutes every day on a prison-monitored telephone." http://t.uani.com/1PKz9it

IranWire: "The Baha'i International Community (BIC) today launches a global campaign to raise awareness about the situation for Baha'is in Iran, and to commemorate the seventh anniversary of the unlawful arrest and imprisonment of seven prominent Baha'i leaders. The campaign, which runs from May 14 to May 20, calls for the immediate release of Mahvash Sabet, Fariba Kamalabadi, Jamaloddin Khanjani, Afif Naeimi, Saeid Rezaie, Behrouz Tavakkoli and Vahid Tizfahm, who were all arrested in early 2008 for being leading members of an Iranian Baha'i community group. Each day of the campaign will focus on one of the seven detainees, highlighting the details of their cases and calling for international support via social media, and in particular through BIC's Facebook Event page. To raise awareness of the campaign, IranWire will be running a series of interviews with family members of some of the seven prisoners. All seven continue to endure inhumane conditions in two of Iran's most notorious prisons  - the two female leaders, Mahvash Sabet and Fariba Kamalabadi are currently held in Evin Prison, and the five male leaders are imprisoned at Karaj's Gohardasht Prison." http://t.uani.com/1B18tDk

ICHRI: "Despite the Iranian government's stated intention to move towards the selective blocking of Internet content ('smart filtering'), a top government official proclaimed that the social networking giant Facebook would continue to be completely blocked in Iran. Abdolsamad Khorramabadi, a high-level advisor to Iran's Prosecutor General and Secretariat of the State's Working Group to Determine Criminal Content, told the Tabnak website on May 5 that 'Facebook will definitely not be included in this type of [smart] filtering, and will remain completely blocked.' The continuation of the Facebook ban reflects the profound fear with which Iranian officials view social media networks, which have proved enormously popular in Iran, particularly among the younger generation." http://t.uani.com/1e5qX0x

Opinion & Analysis

William Kristol & Michael Makovsky in The Weekly Standard: "So: One of the main justifications of the Iran deal was that it would slow down nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. But it turns out it will do the opposite. This is a 'perverse consequence' of the deal only from President Obama's point of view, as expressed by the New York Times. From the point of view of anyone familiar with the Middle East, it is in fact a predictable consequence. The Iran deal is making nuclear proliferation in an unbelievably unstable region of the world-one made more unstable, we would add, by President Obama's policies of retreat in Iraq and inaction in Syria--more likely and more imminent. Maybe this is an unfortunate price one has to pay if a deal could, as President Obama said this past week in an interview with the Arab daily Asharq al-Awsat, 'strengthen the hands of more moderate leaders in Iran.' But there's no sign of that. Quite the contrary... given this evidence of very recent Iranian behavior, how likely is it that the deal will strengthen the forces of moderation in Iran? In fact, achieving a deal that amounts to a huge series of concessions by the West and that allows Iran to leave its nuclear infrastructure in place--a deal that legitimizes Iran as a nuclear threshold state--will have the opposite effect. It will leave the regime in Iran strengthened and emboldened. After all, to say nothing of other considerations, if there's a deal, the regime will, thanks to the unfreezing of sanctioned assets, quickly receive a 'signing bonus' of $30-50 billion from the deal, an immediate cash infusion equivalent to more than 10 percent of Iran's GDP. Indeed, when pressed, even the Obama administration acknowledges that enriching the Islamic Republic of Iran may only accelerate its mischief-making. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on May 5 that the administration hopes 'that the influx of resources will be devoted to meeting the needs of the population there and to strengthening the economy that has taken a terrible toll on the daily lives of millions of Iranians.' But he admitted that 'even while these sanctions have been in place we have not seen Iran significantly scale back their support for terrorism or their destabilization activities in the region.' Ultimately, he said with resignation, Iran 'is a sovereign country that will make their own decisions.' So there are two fundamentally flawed assumptions--really, hopes--underlying the Obama administration's deal. The hope is that such a deal (a) would lead to improved Iranian behavior and (b) would slow down nuclear proliferation in the region. But based on current Iranian behavior and today's reactions in the region, both hopes are false. In fact, they are the complete opposite of the dynamics we already see playing out. The nuclear deal with Iran would have the 'perverse consequence' both of making the Iranian regime stronger and more apt to engage in bad behavior, and of contributing to instability and nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. It's up to Congress to kill the deal, and thereby to save us from the predictable consequences of the Obama administration's perverse view of American interests and of how the real world works." http://t.uani.com/1Gcdi2S
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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