Thursday, May 21, 2015

Eye on Iran: Iran Seeks 24-Day Advanced Notice for Inspection of Nuclear Sites






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AP: "France's foreign minister says Iran wants 24 days before international inspectors could visit its nuclear sites in the event of a suspected violation of a deal with world powers over its atomic program. Laurent Fabius unveiled details Thursday about the state of talks between six world powers and Iran ahead of a June 30 deadline to reach an accord aimed to keep Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. He said Iran was seeking 24 days between the reporting of a suspected Iranian violation of the deal's terms and the time when International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors would be allowed to visit the relevant nuclear site. Fabius cautioned that 'a lot of things can disappear' in 24 days. He said another outstanding question is how international sanctions against Iran might be lifted." http://t.uani.com/1HkabBZ

NYT: "Iran's supreme leader on Wednesday ruled out allowing international inspectors to interview Iranian nuclear scientists as part of any potential deal on its nuclear program, and reiterated that the country would not allow the inspection of military sites. In a graduation speech at the Imam Hussein Military University in Tehran, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, widely believed to have the final say on whether Iran accepts a deal if one is reached next month, denounced what he said were escalating demands by the United States and five other world powers as they accelerate the pace of the negotiations with Iran. 'They say new things in the negotiations,' Ayatollah Khamenei told the military graduates. 'Regarding inspections, we have said that we will not let foreigners inspect any military center.' Like last summer, when he vowed that Iran would ultimately build an industrial-scale uranium enrichment capability - with 190,000 centrifuges, or 10 times the number now installed - the ayatollah's comments are bound to cause deep complications for Iran's negotiators, led by Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Skeptics about the preliminary deals described by Secretary of State John Kerry have focused on the absence of 'anywhere, anytime' inspections and a lack of clarity about whether and when Tehran would have to answer 12 outstanding questions from the International Atomic Energy Agency about what the inspectors call 'possible military dimensions' of the program... But it is not clear how that would be enforced, and it seems likely that oil and financial sanctions would be lifted early in the process, before the explanations to inspectors could be finished." http://t.uani.com/1HwwY2N

Press TV (Iran): "Washington has threatened 'not to sign' a final nuclear agreement with Tehran unless the Iranian government gives access to its possible military dimension-related sites and nuclear scientists. 'If we don't get the assurances we need on the access to possible military dimension-related sites or activities, that's going to be a problem for us,' State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said in Washington on Wednesday. 'We and Iran have agreed that we will undertake a process to address possible military dimensions (of past nuclear work), and part of that includes access,' Harf said. 'Under the Additional Protocol ... which Iran will implement and has said they will implement as part of this deal, the IAEA does get access.' 'If we cannot agree in the final instance to something that meets our bottom line for what we need in terms of access, we're not going to sign a final deal. And that's just something we've been very, very clear about,' she added." http://t.uani.com/1HwBYo8

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Tasnim (Iran): "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Thursday referred to research and development (R&D) as a red line for Iran in its nuclear talks with world powers, reaffirming that the country's negotiating team will stick to the lines set by the Supreme Leader. 'R&D is our red line and the negotiators are well aware of the red lines,' Rouhani said in Tabriz, northwest of Iran. The Government is committed to the guidelines set by the Supreme Leader and will not sign any deal (with world powers) that would give foreigners access to the country's scientific and military secrets, he added. Referring to the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) which gives the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) access to the country's nuclear facilities, Rouhani stressed that the government is responsible for implementing the protocol, but it will not deviate from the red lines in this regard." http://t.uani.com/1FqfQbq

Al-Monitor: "In a rare direct message to all sides in the nuclear negotiations, Khamenei said, 'The enemies of the Islamic Republic and all those who are waiting for the decision of the system on this issue should [now] understand clearly. 'The dear officials of the country are acting with bravery in this sphere, they should know that the only method for confronting an insolent enemy is through resolution and lack of passivity.' He also said, 'The officials and negotiators must show the message of the greatness of the Iranian people in the negotiations.' While Khamenei's speeches are often dissected for clues toward the direction of the nuclear talks, he often leaves room for interpretation, allowing various sides to debate openly their preferred take. However, these unequivocal comments suggest that this issue was raised in the nuclear negotiations and Khamenei sensed the need to address the issue in a manner that leaves little room for interpretation." http://t.uani.com/1FEq3o4

Bloomberg: "The U.S. has approved a $1.9 billion arms sale to Israel that analysts say is likely intended to offset its objections to the emerging nuclear agreement with Iran. The Pentagon's Defense Security Cooperation Agency said Wednesday on its website that the deal had received State Department authorization and will now be sent to Congress for review, where it is certain to be approved. The package includes 3,000 Hellfire missiles, 250 AIM-120C Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles, and 50 BLU-113 'bunker-buster' bombs. 'These items are often sold to Israel in separate deals,' said Yiftah Shapir, who heads the Middle East Military Balance project at Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies. 'There's no doubt that packaging them all together in one sale, and announcing it now, is clearly linked to the Iran agreement.' ... 'These are weapons that Israel already has in its arsenal, and this shipment will help replenish the stock depleted by last year's Gaza operation,' he said. 'In terms of countering Iran though, the discussion over U.S.-provided arms has centered on bigger items, such as the F-35 stealth fighter.'" http://t.uani.com/1FqcJjU

Sanctions Relief


DW: "As the Iran embargo looks likely to be lifted after negotiations between Western countries and Teheran on Iran's nuclear program seem set to achieve a settlement, German firms, in particular, are eager to breathe new life into their traditional business ties with the country. Currently, German exports to Iran amount to about 2.4 billion euros ($2.6 billion) - less than half what they were ten years ago, when sanctions were imposed. According to the German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), that figure could easily multiply to a sum in the double-digit billions once sanctions will be lifted. At a conference in Frankfurt organized by the German Near and Middle East Association (NUMOV), about 250 German business leaders explored opportunities likely to open up in Iran in the near future. The one-day event on Tuesday, called 'Doing Business in Iran,' primarily dealt with the Iranian oil and gas industry, but also cast a light on the renewable energy and finance sectors... Martin Herrenknecht, owner of a German tunnel-boring machine manufacturer, expects tough competition from Asian rivals once his company re-enters the Iranian market after sanctions are lifted... In the years before sanctions were imposed on Iran, Herrenknecht's firm sold equipment worth between 10 million euros ($11.5 million) and 15 million euros annually to Iran. He hopes to re-launch his Iranian business fairly quickly as he wants to benefit from Teheran's plans to build a new subway line in the country's capital, as well as a new high-speed train connection and improvements to the national water and sewage systems." http://t.uani.com/1ElEqGJ

Syria Conflict

Reuters: "Syria hopes to receive a new credit line from Iran worth around $1 billion which it will use to buy basic goods, an assistant to Syria's minister of economy and foreign trade said on Wednesday. The comments come a day after Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, met Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus and reiterated Tehran's backing for the Syrian government... Asked about whether there would be new credit lines from Iran, Hayan Salman said: 'As an economic expectation I believe it will be in the range of $1 billion, God willing.' He said a previous $3.6 billion credit line from Iran was close to being used up. He said the fresh credit would be used 'to secure the flow of essential goods and materials,' for Syria." http://t.uani.com/1Lp37be

Human Rights

Guardian: "An Iranian painter and women's rights campaigner is on trial in Tehran on charges of spreading propaganda against the ruling establishment. Atena Farghadani, who has spoken out against parliamentary plans to restrict access to contraception, appeared in court on Tuesday in connection with her activism as well as her art. The 29-year-old, described by Amnesty as a prisoner of conscience, is currently being kept in Tehran's notorious Evin prison. Farghadani fell foul of the Iranian authorities after meeting with the families of political prisoners and drawing a cartoon depicting a group of Iranian parliamentarians with faces of animals. She is facing charges of 'insulting members of parliament through paintings' and 'insulting the Iranian supreme leader.'" http://t.uani.com/1PYIEdX

Opinion & Analysis

Aaron David Miller in WSJ: "The emerging Iran deal that the Obama administration contends is comprehensive and definitive contains so many uncertainties, including those regarding Iran's future nuclear weapons aspirations, that it might well turn out to be an extended interim accord. This underscores an issue with a few things Secretary of State John Kerry recently said while defending the Iran deal-remarks that I presume he'd like to take back: 'President Obama has absolutely pledged they will not get a nuclear weapon' and  'We will have inspectors in there every single day. That is not a 10-year deal; that is forever.' I understand the administration's need to market the Iran deal and why senior administration officials might get carried away with their handiwork. They believe that they know what's best for the nation. What's harder to explain is the way that this administration processes time, and the durability of any agreement, particularly in relation to a turbulent region where time is measured along a more extended arc. In the Middle East, there is no 'forever,' certainly not when it comes to the designs of external powers that seek to meddle in or impose their will on the affairs of small tribes. All U.S. administrations measure their lives in four- and, if they're lucky, eight-year increments. They need to get things done quickly. President Barack Obama was ready to declare the war on terrorism over in 2012; three years later, he is more immersed in it than ever before. The same is true of the U.S. exit from Iraq in 2011; now we're back in, albeit in a different role. With the U.S.-backed NATO intervention in Libya, there was commitment on the front end but little follow-up. The United States is not really good at following up. We grow tired and disillusioned as things get too hard, and come to feel that it's really not our neighborhood or our fight; along with expecting results that are not realistic." http://t.uani.com/1Hk9x7A

Naame Shaam: "This report argues that the grossly careless and malicious destruction and appropriation of civilian property and the forcible displacement and transfer of civilian population taking place in Syria since March 2011 amount to war crimes and crimes against humanity as defined by international humanitarian law. It further argues that both types of crime appear to be part of a systematic policy of sectarian cleansing being carried out in certain parts of the country. The policy appears to be driven by a combination of mafia-style war profiteering linked to the inner circle of the Syrian regime and a Shiatisation programme pushed and financed by the Iranian regime. The report focuses on certain parts of Syria, such as Homs and Damascus, and argues that the aim of destroying and reconstructing these areas is to create loyalist zones and strategic military corridors. The task of conquering and securing them was assigned primarily to sectarian, Iranian-controlled militias (Hezbollah Lebanon, Iraqi and Afghan Shia militias, etc.), which were seen as more reliable and better organised than the regular Syrian army. The ultimate aim of this scheme, which arguably amounts to sectarian cleansing and to a foreign occupation, appears to be securing the Damascus-Homs-Coast corridor along the Lebanese border in order to both provide a geographical and demographic continuity of regime-held areas and secure arms shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon, while at the same time cutting off those of the rebels coming from or through eastern Lebanon. Indeed, the main reason behind the Iranian regime's uncompromising determination to save Bashar al-Assad's regime and take over control at any cost is to maintain its ability to ship arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon via Syria. This will ensure maintaining a strong deterrent against any possible Israeli and/or Western attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. This 'line of defence' is meant to secure the Iranian regime's survival. If the Assad regime falls, Iranian arms shipments to Hezbollah are likely to stop and Hezbollah would no longer be the threatening deterrence against Israel that it is now. The Iranian regime would therefore feel more vulnerable and would not be able to negotiate from a strong position during nuclear talks with Western powers, as it is doing now. It may even have to give up its nuclear dreams once and for all. That is why Iran has been mobilising all available resources (human, economic, military) to achieve the strategic aim of building nuclear bombs without fearing a massive military retaliation on its soil." http://t.uani.com/1IRfFZf

Brian Welch in The Hill: "This week the Senate Foreign Relations Committee will mark up the Justice for Former American Hostages in Iran Act of 2015 (S.868), a bill that establishes a fund to make payments to the Americans held hostage in Iran. As the administration works to strike a deal with Iran on its nuclear program and easing of economic and trade sanctions, this legislation makes sense.  What does not make sense is why it falls short and excludes other, equally significant victims of Iran's past acts. Several years ago, Congress passed a law giving families like mine the explicit right to seek damages from the Iranian regime for acts of terrorism committed against U.S. citizens. The Congress also stipulated clearly that any judgments were to be paid from assets and funds seized by our government.  It was one of those rare instances where Congress spoke loudly, clearly and unequivocally.  Unfortunately, no one at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue has been listening. My father, Kenneth Welch was murdered on October 20, 1984 by a suicide bomber who drove a bomb-laden truck into the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon where our dad was serving as an Army warrant officer. Another soldier was killed and scores of service personnel were also wounded. The driver was a Hezbollah operative acting under orders from Tehran.
Years later a court in Washington, D.C. ruled favorably in our wrongful death suit against the Iranian government and awarded damages for Iran's role in planning and executing the attack that killed our father. It was a victory for our family after years of suffrering. Little did we know that day that we were beginning the first chapter in what has become years of neglect and obstinacy from the same government that sent my father to Beirut to protect its embassy. It is not just our family that has been mistreated. Hundreds of families wait in the same line for our government to end its empty condolences and hollow promises. Our own government is failing to honor commitments made by U.S. courts. Is this a reflection of a great nation? Don't great nations keep their promises, honor their commitments? In recent years, when members of Congress have championed our cause, the feds ascend to Capitol Hill, appealing to members to 'look at the big picture' and not let personal stories like ours influence the outcome of the larger issues at stake. Callous, dismissive, indifferent are all words that best define our government's attitude towards the families who have suffered losses as a result of Iran's terror campaign. As the debate continues on a nuclear agreement with Iran, Congress owes families like ours a duty to also keep our important issue within sight. Our issue is in fact part of the big picture." http://t.uani.com/1FErToU
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.



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