Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Eye on Iran: Iran's Supreme Leader, Khamenei, Seems to Pull Back on Nuclear Talks









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NYT: "With exactly a week left before the deadline for a final agreement to limit Iran's nuclear program, the country's supreme leader appeared to undercut several of the central agreements his negotiators have already reached with the West. In a speech broadcast live on Iran state television, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, demanded that most sanctions be lifted before Tehran has dismantled part of its nuclear infrastructure and before international inspectors verify that the country is beginning to meet its commitments. He also ruled out any freeze on Iran's sensitive nuclear enrichment for as long as a decade, as a preliminary understanding announced in April stipulates, and he repeated his refusal to allow inspections of Iranian military sites... 'All economic, financial and banking sanctions, implemented either by the United Nations Security Council, the United States Congress or the administration, must be lifted immediately when the deal is signed,' the ayatollah said, according to his personal website, Khamenei.ir. Only after that has happened will Iran start abiding by its commitments, he said. 'The rest of the sanctions must be lifted in rational intervals,' he said... The ayatollah also vowed to maintain an active nuclear program, which he says is for peaceful purposes. 'Freezing Iran's research and development for a long time, like 10 years or 12 years, is not acceptable,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1LnjWFq

AP: "The United States and other nations negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran are ready to offer high-tech reactors and other state-of-the-art equipment to Tehran if it agrees to crimp programs that can make atomic arms, according to a confidential document obtained Tuesday by The Associated Press. The draft document - one of several technical appendices meant to accompany the main text of any deal - has dozens of bracketed text where disagreements remain. Technical cooperation is the least controversial issue at the talks, and the number of brackets suggest the sides have a ways to go not only on that topic but also more contentious disputes with little more than a week until the June 30 deadline for a deal... The West has always held out the prospect of providing Iran peaceful nuclear technology in the nearly decade-long international diplomatic effort designed to reduce Tehran's potential ability to make nuclear weapons. But the scope of the help now being offered in the draft may displease U.S. congressional critics who already argue that Washington has offered too many concessions at the negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1IdXdKQ

AP: "Iran's constitutional watchdog has ratified legislation banning access to military sites and scientists as Tehran and world powers approach a deadline for reaching a comprehensive nuclear deal. State TV says the Guardian Council ratified the bill Wednesday. All bills have to be approved by the council to become a law. The bill would allow for international inspections of Iranian nuclear sites within the framework of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty." http://t.uani.com/1Ni8l9H

   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Bloomberg: "President Barack Obama has growing political leeway to extend the Iran nuclear negotiations if there's no deal by the June 30 deadline set seven months ago. An extension of the talks by days -- or longer -- seems increasingly likely as Iran and most of the other world powers involved in the negotiations have signaled doubt about being able to resolve all the issues in the next week. A former Obama administration adviser, an architect of American sanctions against Iran and an influential U.S. lawmaker all have said the deadline matters less than the outcome, and the State Department's spokesman said as much on Tuesday. 'Getting the right deal is better than the deadline itself,' John Kirby told reporters, even though Kirby and other U.S. officials continue to stress the objective of wrapping up an accord by June 30 or a few days thereafter... One scenario is that the talks run a few days beyond the deadline, as happened at the end of March. Another is that the negotiators take a break for the July 4 holiday in the U.S. and then resume the talks for an agreed period of time... In the U.S., a group called Secure America Now is pressing a digital campaign against a deal -- including the website stopthebadirandeal.com -- directed at key lawmakers, such as New York Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer... Other anti-deal groups, such as the Israel Project, the Foreign Policy Initiative and United Against Nuclear Iran, also have been increasing their activities heading toward the June 30 deadline." http://t.uani.com/1SJZGQi

Politico: "Millions of dollars worth of ads will hit the airwaves this week in an effort to pressure senators to take a hard line against President Barack Obama's nascent nuclear deal with Iran - with a June 30 deadline to wrap up the agreement just a week away. The latest salvo lands Wednesday, when the American Security Initiative, a bipartisan group chaired by former senators, unleashes an ad blitz, urging eight senators from both parties to oppose any nuclear deal that doesn't allow 'unconditional inspections' of Iran's nuclear facilities. The target list includes Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader in waiting, and John Thune of South Dakota, the GOP's chief message man, according to sources familiar with the matter. The group will spend about $1.4 million on the ad buys, beginning Wednesday, and run a full-page ad in The New York Times on June 29. Its board of directors includes former colleagues of many of the targeted senators: Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.), Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.)... ASI's ad buy follows Secure America Now's $1 million ad campaign targeting Schumer, Democratic Sens. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Michael Bennet of Colorado and independent Angus King of Maine. A multimillion dollar campaign from United Against Nuclear Iran also has been launched in the hopes of pressuring senators to take a skeptical view of the nuclear negotiations." http://t.uani.com/1Ni5uxB

New Yorker: "The Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, now the lead Iranian negotiator, described the often tortuous talks as an 'unholy exercise.' If the diplomacy fails, he told me, 'It won't be the end of the world. The U.S. will have lost a major opportunity, probably unique. But, for us, our population is accustomed to making necessary sacrifices to preserve its dignity and its rights.' He went on, 'It's not about nationalism or chauvinism. It's simply about having historical depth. Several years are a brief period in the history of a country with millennia as its depth.'" http://t.uani.com/1GyE94s

FT: "When Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein launched scud missile attacks on Iranian cities in 1984, the Islamic republic was ill prepared. It possessed nothing to fire back in self-defence and hundreds of civilians died as the government scrambled to get other countries to sell it missiles. Only Muammar al-Ghaddafi's Libya responded, grudgingly providing 10 missiles. Tehran was eventually able to buy missiles from eastern Europe but the humiliation of having to beg for defensive weapons while under attack has not been forgotten by Iran's leaders. The incident was recalled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, during a recent private meeting with senior politicians - one of whom recounted it to the Financial Times - and cited it as the reason why Iran cannot grant international inspectors access to its military sites under a nuclear accord... 'Iran has gone a long way from begging for a few missiles to today, when we have mass production of various missiles with different ranges,' said the senior politician who was at the meeting with the Ayatollah. 'There is no way the leader and the [Revolutionary] Guards will accept any inspections of the missiles or any major military sites, even if that means failure of the negotiations.'" http://t.uani.com/1LBAMOG

Reuters: "Gulf Arab states have long feared a sanctions-free Iran and as a nuclear agreement edges closer they have become more aggressive in preparing for a resurgence of their main regional foe. The biggest concern is what they see as Shi'ite Iran's regional expansionism, manifest in its backing for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iraq's Shi'ite militias and Yemen's Houthi group. From the airstrikes in Yemen to backing for Syrian rebels, crackdowns on dissent and more forceful diplomacy, the actions of the mostly Sunni Muslim Gulf states in recent months has been driven by a sense that Iran is on the cusp of a comeback. They are also concerned that U.S. President Barack Obama's push for a nuclear deal in return for sanctions relief shows their strongest ally may no longer help restrain Iran. 'The deal is inevitable is their calculation. It could be delayed a week or two, or a month. But everybody in the region has prepared themselves for the reality that the deal is a done thing,' said Mustafa Alani, a security analyst close to the Saudi Interior Ministry. The six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, often disagree on regional strategy, but except for Muscat, they all share misgivings about Iran." http://t.uani.com/1QPWwNv

Reuters: "Saudi diplomats in Khartoum believed Iran shipped advanced nuclear equipment including centrifuges to Sudan in 2012, according to a document leaked last week that WikiLeaks says is a cable from the embassy. 'The embassy's sources advised that Iranian containers arrived this week at Khartoum airport containing sensitive technical equipment in the form of fast centrifuges for enriching uranium, and a second shipment is expected to arrive this week,' the document, dated February 2012 and marked 'very secret', read. WikiLeaks last week released more than 60,000 cables and documents which it says are official Saudi communications, and plans to release half a million in total." http://t.uani.com/1LByxuO

Reuters: "If U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry pulls off a nuclear deal with Iran, it will be a singular achievement in a long career in which the grand prize has eluded him. His 2004 presidential election loss, lack of legislative monuments despite 28 years in the Senate, and failure, like many before, to bring peace to Israelis and Palestinians have contributed to a view that he struggles to seal major successes. The 71-year-old has expended remarkable energy in pursuit of what would be an historic agreement with Iran, flying tens of thousands of miles and holding dozens of meetings with his Iranian counterpart. He plans to attend the possible last stage of the nuclear talks in Vienna ahead of a June 30 deadline, despite breaking his leg late last month. Kerry's negotiating style with Iran is a cocktail of boundless energy, tactical flexibility and occasional hardball, according to officials involved in the talks. Still, critics say he has broken some classic rules of negotiation, overshadowing the principal U.S. negotiator Wendy Sherman; meeting Iranians regularly rather than holding himself in reserve; and exuding an air of eagerness for a deal." http://t.uani.com/1SK2soN

Human Rights

IranWire: "Iranian authorities have launched a renewed attack on Iran's Baha'i  community, targeting Baha'i-run shops and small businesses. In a bid to prevent the religious minority from observing holidays, authorities ordered the closure of dozens of shops owned by Baha'is in Rafsanjan, Kerman, Sari and Hamedan. The small businesses, which were closed down in April, May and June, included repair shops, automobile parts outlets and clothing stores. Authorities ordered the closures after shop owners failed to open their premises to the public on Baha'i religious holidays, and warned some shopkeepers that if they did not sign a document stating that they would observe official national holidays only, their trading permits would not be renewed and shops would face permanent closure. The Baha'i International Community representative at the UN in Geneva, Diane Ala'i, said the recent measures were illegal. 'Stopping Baha'i shopkeepers from observing their religious holidays is against Iranian law, as well as against human rights.'" http://t.uani.com/1JiL9JY

Opinion & Analysis

James Robbins in U.S. News & World Report: "As the June 30 deadline for a deal to limit Iran's nuclear program draws ever nearer, the question of sanctions relief remains an important sticking point. The White House has promised to lift only nuclear-related sanctions against the Islamic Republic in exchange for an agreement, while keeping others (relating to terrorism and human rights) in place. But it's not at all clear that it can do so. And it's even less certain that Iran will accept such a minimalist approach, or whether it will refuse to sign a deal unless all sanctions are eliminated at once. The core of the problem is that it is exceedingly difficult to parse which sanctions apply only to Tehran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, and which apply to other aspects of its rogue behavior. A recent Congressional Research Service study noted that the 'U.S. sanctions to be suspended are mostly those imposed since 2010,' such as the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010. But that act was imposed because of the threat posed by 'the illicit nuclear activities of the Government of Iran, combined with its development of unconventional weapons and ballistic missiles and its support for international terrorism.' In all, terrorism is mentioned in the act no fewer than 32 times. Section 102 of the act, for example, deals with mandatory sanctions levied on financial institutions that engage in activity that supports terrorism - a sanction that there is no plausible reason to lift under a strictly nuclear deal. The Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 is another sanctions bill slated for partial suspension under the impending nuclear deal with Tehran. But isolating the purely nuclear-related aspects of this law is difficult. Take, for example, Section 211 of the act, which imposes sanctions on shipping or transportation of goods 'related to proliferation or terrorism activities to Iran.' Presumably, terrorism-related shipments would still be banned after June 30 (or whenever a deal with Tehran is signed). Similarly, the act's Section 215 bans transactions 'relating to terrorism or proliferation of weapons of mass destruction,' something that should also remain in force where terrorist support is concerned. And what to make of its Section 217, which only allows lifting sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran if it can be certified that it is not engaged in financial activity that helps Iran develop nuclear weapons, chemical or biological weapons, ballistic or cruise missiles, destabilizing conventional weapons, weapons of mass destruction delivery systems and supporting Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and international terrorism? Clearly Iran's state bank has a long way to go before it can receive a clean bill of health... Given the complex and interconnected nature of the various sanctions the United States has levied on Iran to date, it is critical for the White House to make clear exactly which sanctions are eligible for relief under the proposed nuclear deal - and provide a rationale for why this is the case. After all, Iran has made no effort to curtain its support for terrorism, slow the pace of its ballistic missile development or improve its horrific human rights record. It only stands to reason that it should not be rewarded for things it has not done." http://t.uani.com/1GHYoA3

Eli Lake in Bloomberg: "As U.S. and Iranian negotiators approach the June 30 deadline to reach a nuclear deal, America's largest pro-Israel lobby is campaigning to kill such an accord in Congress. Since last month, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee has mobilized its members to press legislators to endorse five principles for a nuclear deal -- principles that are almost certain not to be reflected in a final agreement. Parallel to this campaign, major donors to AIPAC and other pro-Israel causes are forming a new and independent 501(c)(4) advocacy organization, according to fundraisers and other lobbyists involved in the effort. The new organization will buy TV, radio and Internet ads targeting lawmakers from both parties who are on the fence about the nuclear deal, these sources say. Officially, AIPAC is still reserving judgment on the nuclear deal being ironed out now in Vienna by the U.S., Iran and five other world powers. But it's clear that the agreement now being negotiated would be unsatisfactory to AIPAC. For example, AIPAC's principles say a deal should last 'decades,' while the framework for the nuclear agreement released in April would begin easing restrictions on Iran's program after a decade. Another principle says inspectors must be given 'anytime, anywhere' access to suspected sites, 'including all military facilities.' Iran's leaders have consistently said there will be no inspections on military sites... The new 501(c)(4) group funded by AIPAC donors, according to one pro-Israel lobbyist familiar with the campaign, will focus on about a dozen media markets with large Jewish populations to make the case against the Iran deal, targeting Republicans and Democrats. Other similar 501(c)(4) groups have already started these kinds of ad buys. One such group, Secure America Now, has produced video ads featuring Maria, a woman whose father was killed in Iraq by an improvised explosive device supplied by Iran. In the ad, Maria tells the camera, 'And now President Obama would do a deal that lets Iran get a nuclear weapon.' The Emergency Committee for Israel, another 501(c)(4), is also considering running ads against the Iran deal in several targeted media markets, according to its executive director, Noah Pollak. Other advocacy groups are also planning to run ads in sensitive political districts. Chris Maloney, a spokesman for the American Security Initiative, whose board includes four former senators -- Norm Coleman, Saxby Chambliss, Joe Lieberman and Evan Bayh -- told me his group is about to launch an ad buy tallying just under $1.4 million, to target eight Republican and Democratic senators. The ad buy will include television and digital media. Maloney told me that one target of that campaign will be Senator Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat who is in line to be the leader of his party in the Senate after Harry Reid retires. Schumer has not yet said whether he will support the Iran nuclear deal. But he has in recent speeches to Jewish groups outlined his own criteria for evaluating it." http://t.uani.com/1NaVK7q

Jared Genser & Sara Birkenthal in WSJ: "The world recently has played down criticism of Iran on human rights in hopes of securing an elusive nuclear deal, which may or may not actually affect its nuclear ambitions. Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has doubled down its repression of domestic dissent. More than 1,500 executions have been carried out in Iran since Hasan Rouhani became president in August 2013. With 721 individuals executed in 2014 alone, Iran boasts the world's highest per capita execution rate and is on pace to break its own record for executions in one year. According to the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center, the Iranian regime could top 1,000 executions by the end of 2015. All this under Mr. Rouhani, Iran's 'moderate' president. While the international community wanted to believe that Mr. Rouhani's election would herald a sea change inside Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains the real power. And it is persecution as usual in the Islamic Republic... Mr. Soltani and Ms. Shafipour are among at least 900 political prisoners in Iran's jails, according to the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center. Many have been denied due process and sentenced after closed trials, or no trials at all. Then there is the regime's relentless persecution of religious minorities, women and a broad range of other real and imagined enemies. Ahmed Shaheed, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in Iran, recently cited the prosecution of a broad range of dissenters on the basis of 'vague references to threats to national security, propaganda against the system and insult to authorities.' These actions, he said, violate 'international norms relating to freedoms of expression and association and the principle of legality.' Regardless of the outcome of the nuclear negotiations, the U.S. should reaffirm its commitment to advancing human rights in Iran. That means making the removal of sanctions contingent on tangible improvements in Iran's human-rights situation. This would include releasing political prisoners and halting executions for political crimes or for which there was no due process of law... There have been serious concerns expressed about the specific parameters of the nuclear deal as the June 30 deadline approaches. These questions are critical and worthy of debate, but they should not let us forget the broader aspirations of the Iranian people to be free. Regardless of any nuclear deal, the U.S. needs to serve notice that it will not provide Tehran with a license to act against its own people with impunity." http://t.uani.com/1LnlZcr
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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