Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Eye on Iran: No Automatic Return of Sanctions if Iran Breaks Arms Embargo: Kerry






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Reuters: "Violations of an arms embargo by Iran or restrictions on its missile program would not force an automatic reinstatement or 'snapback' of United Nations sanctions under a landmark nuclear deal, although other options would be available, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said on Tuesday. 'The arms embargo is not tied to snapback,' Kerry said. 'It is tied to a separate set of obligations. So they are not in material breach of the nuclear agreement for violating the arms piece of it.' ... Iran's senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi made clear last month that Tehran had no intention of complying with the arms embargo and missile sanctions. 'Whenever it's needed to send arms to our allies in the region, we will do so,' he said. 'We are not ashamed of it.'" http://t.uani.com/1JTPbb3

AP: "The lone Democratic senator to publicly oppose President Barack Obama's nuclear agreement with Iran said Tuesday that even if the U.S. backs away and other countries lift their sanctions, Iran still will feel meaningful pressure from the U.S. penalties... Schumer also said that sanctions aimed at companies that do business with Iran could force U.S. allies and trade partners back to the negotiating table. 'Let's not forget, those secondary sanctions are very powerful,' Schumer told reporters in New York as he detailed a decision he first announced last week. He said these sanctions alert corporations, such as the French oil company Total, that if it deals with Iran, it cannot deal with the United States. 'We have that powerful tool, and if used, I think that's a better, better chance in a very difficult world than an agreement that is so totally flawed,' Schumer said... He was asked by reporters whether he intended to lobby colleagues to vote with him. 'Certainly, I'm going to try to persuade my colleagues that my viewpoint is right, but anyone who thinks you can force somebody to vote with you in the Senate doesn't understand the Senate,' he said. 'This is a vote of conscience. It was a vote of conscience for me. It will be a vote of conscience for my colleagues.'" http://t.uani.com/1P6wJLO

JPost: "Fresh off the successfully negotiated agreement on Iran's nuclear project, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif told reporters in Beirut on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic's major challenge in the region is in 'confronting...the Zionist and extremist regime.' Zarif arrived on an official visit to the Lebanese capital on Tuesday to discuss bilateral and regional issues, including a 'new plan' on how to resolve the crisis in neighboring Syria, according to an Iranian foreign ministry spokeswoman. Tehran's top diplomat also met with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. According to Al-Safir, Zarif held a long meeting with Nasrallah on Tuesday evening... Shortly after arriving in Beirut, Zarif warned that Israel played a 'dangerous game' with the Iranian nuclear file, a game in which it has been defeated... Zarif said it was necessary to 'confront the challenges of the region, the most important of which is the Zionist and extremist regime.'" http://t.uani.com/1IGDuCp
   
Nuclear Program & Agreement

AP: "Iran's intelligence agencies have penetrated CIA front companies, executed Western agents and captured a sophisticated U.S. drone. So why should anyone believe American intelligence officials when they express confidence that they can monitor Iran's compliance with the just-completed nuclear agreement? The main reason, according to a classified joint intelligence assessment presented to Congress, is that the deal requires Iran to provide an unprecedented volume of information about nearly every aspect of its existing nuclear program, which Iran insists is peaceful. That data will make checking on compliance easier, officials say, because it will shrink Iran's capacity to hide a covert weapons program... Outside experts don't dispute that. But they question - considering past blunders of U.S. intelligence in the Middle East - whether American spying will really be able to detect every instance of Iranian cheating. 'The intelligence community can rarely guarantee, We're going find the secret site,' said David Albright, a former weapons inspector who heads the Institute for Science and International Security. 'They have found them before in Iran and that's good, but I think they are going to have to do more work and bolster their capabilities to find secret sites in Iran in an environment when Iran is taking counter measures against them.'" http://t.uani.com/1MnZaHx

AP: "Secretary of State John Kerry sparred Tuesday with the lone Democratic senator to publicly oppose last month's historic Iran nuclear deal, saying there was no way the U.S. could prevent American allies from doing business with Tehran if Congress were to reject the agreement. Speaking across town in New York, Sen. Chuck Schumer disagreed and suggested Washington still could force the world into isolating the Iranians until they make deeper nuclear concessions... 'Are you kidding me?' he asked the crowd. 'The United States is going to start sanctioning our allies and their banks and their businesses because we walked away from a deal? And we're going to force them to do what we want them to do, even though they agreed to the deal we came to?' ... He said that European governments could walk away from the U.S.-led sanctions strategy against Russia, that the United States and Israel would have no support for military action against Iran, if such action were necessary, and that the U.S. dollar would lose its status as the reserve currency of the world. The top American diplomat also challenged those who have criticized the length of the deal's restrictions on Iranian enrichment of material that can be used in nuclear warheads and other elements of its program. He suggested it was illegitimate to worry that Iran would be a 'nuclear threshold nation' in 15 years or 20 years, because it already is one today. 'They became that while we had a policy of no enrichment,' he said, referencing the continued demand of Republicans and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu." http://t.uani.com/1Na0Za9

Tasnim (Iran): "Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi said Iran plans to build two more nuclear reactors in addition to the existing Bushehr nuclear power plant. '...we would be working on different advanced machines. We would be working on the IR8, on the IR6. The IR8 and IR6 are the two candidates that could really meet our needs in terms of producing enough enrichment capacity to meet the annual needs of (the Bushehr power reactor). And 10 years from now, we will have two other nuclear power reactors added to Bushehr. But using (the permitted centrifuges), in 15 years we will be in a position to meet the fuel requirements of these reactors,' Salehi said in an exclusive interview with Science at AEOI headquarters in northern Tehran published on August 12." http://t.uani.com/1IZ0WHU

Tasnim (Iran): "Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Hassan Firouzabadi announced Wednesday that the country's missile tests will be carried out on schedule, according to plans endorsed by Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei.  The announcement came in response to a statement by some Iranian lawmakers, requesting that the Armed Forces resume conducting missile tests. In their statement, the MPs had called for the resumption of missile tests in reaction to the US officials' brazen rhetoric of war against Iran. Thanking the Iranian lawmakers for their concerns, Major General Firouzabadi gave an assurance that missile tests will be performed at the appropriate time according to plans endorsed by the Supreme Leader." http://t.uani.com/1Mo3Ltb

Congressional Vote

Politico: "With liberal groups furious over his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal, Sen. Chuck Schumer has been quietly reaching out to dozens of his colleagues to explain his decision and assure them he would not be whipping opposition to the deal, according to Democratic senators and aides. After news of his decision to vote 'no' on the Iran agreement first leaked Thursday night, Schumer (D-N.Y.) has spoken to 20 to 30 fellow Democrats about why he will vote with the GOP leadership against the deal, sources said. Schumer had been planning to make these calls on Friday, before his position on Iran became public, but was not able to do so because it had leaked the night before. In these conversations, Schumer has been walking through his position on the Iran agreement, the product of lengthy negotiations between the leading world powers and the Iranian government. Schumer, though, is not lobbying his colleagues to vote against the agreement when the Senate takes up a 'resolution of disapproval' next month, several undecided senators said during interviews." http://t.uani.com/1JTQYN6

The Hill: "Democratic senators say Sen. Charles Schumer's opposition to President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran won't prevent him from becoming their next leader. Even a potential rival to Schumer said Democratic senators who back the Iran deal will not turn on Schumer over the divisive vote. 'I don't think the choice of the next Senate leader is going to be based on any single vote. Members of the caucus respect Chuck and know he's gone through a thoughtful reflection. I don't think it has any impact on the leadership race,' Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, told The Hill in an interview... Schumer's decision has irritated the White House and enraged former aides to President Obama, who have launched a public attack on the powerful New York Democrat... Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), the vice chairwoman of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee and a close ally of Schumer's, said the criticisms from former White House officials are 'unfortunate.' 'He's very, very respectful of the members of our caucus. I think this has zero effect on him being a leader or an effective leader. And I think it's very unfortunate to see the comments coming from people connected with the White House,' she said." http://t.uani.com/1TtMJbK

Politico: "If Congress votes down the Iran nuclear deal, President Barack Obama says, the agreement will collapse and war will come 'soon.' But Obama has broad powers to act alone - even against the will of Congress - say experts and former administration officials familiar with internal deliberations. Using his executive branch authority, Obama could effectively halt many U.S. sanctions on Iran, they say, in a bid to persuade Tehran to meet its end of the bargain. 'It might not be everything,' said a former administration official familiar with Iran policy. But the president's powers 'can get you a lot of the way' toward sanctions relief for Tehran. Such a move would be audacious, and sure to enrage members of Congress. 'Oh boy, the Hill will be in Defcon 1 mode,' said a Senate foreign policy aide. It could also provoke a constitutional showdown over presidential powers, sources warned, although Obama has invoked his executive authority to defy Congress on immigration and climate change." http://t.uani.com/1J3YYKN

Reuters: "If the United States walks away from the nuclear deal with Iran and demands that its allies comply with U.S. sanctions, a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership could threaten the dollar's position as the world's reserve currency, the top U.S. diplomat said on Tuesday. 'If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, You're going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway, that is a recipe, very quickly ... for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,' U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said at a Reuters Newsmaker event... Kerry warned of a potential loss of U.S. financial and political clout. He said this was not something that would happen overnight but many countries were 'chafing' under the present international financial arrangements. He said U.S. Treasury experts 'are doing a full dive on how this works and what the implications are. But the notion that we can just sort of diss the deal and unilaterally walk away as Congress wants to do will have a profound negative impact on people's sense of American leadership and reliability.' New York-based Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX Strategy, BK Asset Management, challenged Kerry's reasoning. He said the dollar's status could be compromised only if the United States was unable to compete economically on a global scale. 'The reality of the situation is that the U.S. dollar hasn't been this strong in decades. The thought that it could be replaced as a reserve currency is laughable at this point on a geopolitical basis and nothing in the Iran deal even remotely touches upon that issue,' he added." http://t.uani.com/1DMJ72R

The Hill: "Secretary of State John Kerry on Tuesday said the administration was not seeking to demonize those who don't support the Iran deal or suggest they are warmongers. 'I'm not accusing anyone of willfully choosing that or being a warmonger, or suggesting that they want that, even though you've heard some pretty flashy language in some hearings about who wins war and what happens,' Kerry said during a discussion hosted by Reuters. 'But what I am saying is people really owe it to everybody to evaluate fully what happens if Congress were to override a veto and say no,' he said. Critics have blasted the administration for arguing that the only alternative to the deal is war with Iran and comparing Iraq War supporters with opponents of the Iran deal. 'Let's not mince words: The choice we face is ultimately between diplomacy and some form of war - maybe not tomorrow, maybe not three months from now, but soon,' Obama said in a 56-minute address from American University last week." http://t.uani.com/1gzTtIF

Breitbart: "Tuesday on CNN's 'Newsroom With Carol Costello,'  House Democratic Whip Rep. Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) broke ranks with President Barack Obama saying he did not agree with his administration's stance that if the Iran nuclear deal was not passed, the only alternative is war. Hoyer  said, 'I do not believe that if the agreement were not approved that that is a path to war. We imposed the sanctions through Congress with the cooperation of the administration. The sanctions in my opinion, brought Iran to the table. And the first steps, of course, would be to A - keep sanctions in place, and B - perhaps to make sanctions even tougher. So that, I don't agree that we would set the country to a path to war." http://t.uani.com/1hxYBhl

Free Beacon: "The executive director of Veterans Against the Deal, the group behind a gripping new ad that urges Congress to reject the Iran nuclear deal, talked with Fox News on Tuesday about Iran's decades-long war against the U.S. 'This [deal] is giving an enemy going back 35 years more money and arms, and it actually allows a terrorist general to violate existing sanctions by traveling to Iraq to fund a proxy war, going to Yemen to fund a proxy war, and going to Russia to facilitate an arms deal-again in violation of sanctions,' Executive Director Michael Pregent, who was an intelligence advisor to Gen. David Petraeus, said. 'To us, it's baffling. We want our veterans to be heard on this this.' ... 'This money will go back to the organizations that were sanctioned to begin with for conducting terrorism operations,' Pregent said. 'It's not going back to the people.' Iran's actions have exacted a heavy cost on the U.S. military: More than 500 U.S. soldiers were killed by Iranian bombs during the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, and 241 were killed in the Iraninan-backed bombing of a U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983. 'We know this enemy very well. We have veterans going back to Beirut bombing that will be able to talk about this,' Pregent said." http://t.uani.com/1JcG0nc

NYT: "Though he backs the accord as the most that can be achieved diplomatically, Mr. Samore is skeptical that the agreement will open a new chapter in American-Iranian relations. 'The best you can achieve with diplomacy is delay in the hope that at some point a new Iranian government emerges that is not committed to developing nuclear weapons,' he said. And if that leadership does not materialize, Mr. Samore acknowledges that Iran might vastly expand its nuclear enrichment program after core elements of the agreement expire in 15 years. He is also not convinced that Iran will continue to adhere to the accord once economic sanctions are lifted." http://t.uani.com/1TpUAwh

Sanctions Relief

Reuters: "Iran needs to offer better incentives to lure foreign energy companies forced by low oil prices to slash investments, the head of Austrian energy group OMV said ahead of a trip to the country next month. Tehran reached an historic deal with world powers last month to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for much-needed sanctions relief which could trigger an influx of billions of dollars into the country. 'Iran is a big opportunity for OMV,' OMV's new Chief Executive Rainer Seele told reporters, but added: 'Currently the conditions for potential investors are not sufficient for us to enter into investment commitments.' He said current Iranian production sharing agreements were not good enough, but did not elaborate on why investment conditions were insufficient or what conditions OMV would want. However, he acknowledged 'a strong will to offer attractive conditions' on the part of the Iranians. Last month, Tehran said it had identified nearly 50 oil and gas projects worth $185 billion that it hoped to sign by 2020." http://t.uani.com/1Na1lxr

Reuters: "Iran has told India that the development rights for the Farzad-B gas field would be available to Indian companies, an Oil India Ltd executive said on Wednesday, after concerns in New Delhi that cash-rich European companies could clinch a contract. A consortium headed by ONGC Videsh, the overseas investment arm Oil and Natural Gas Corp, originally signed a deal in December 2002 to explore the Farsi offshore block in Iran that includes the Farzad-B field. An Indian delegation that went to Iran in the last week of July was told that Tehran was working out a new production sharing contract, said B. Roy, head of business development at Oil India. Iran is also willing to sell liquefied natural gas to India, Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan told lawmakers on Wednesday." http://t.uani.com/1Mk1w8L

Reuters: "Aug 12 Iran could raise its oil output by as much as 730,000 barrels per day (bpd) from current levels fairly quickly after sanctions are removed, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday. The West's energy watchdog estimated that Iranian oilfields, which pumped around 2.87 million bpd in July, could increase production to between 3.4 million and 3.6 million bpd within months of sanctions being lifted. 'While significantly higher production is unlikely before next year, oil held in floating storage - at the highest level since sanctions were tightened in mid-2012 - could start to reach international markets before then,' the IEA said in a monthly report. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh has said Iran expects to raise oil output by 500,000 bpd as soon as sanctions are lifted and by a million bpd within months." http://t.uani.com/1f7LSA8

Press TV (Iran): "Iranian and Spanish companies have signed a memorandum of understanding to implement power generation projects worth $250 million in Chile and Mexico. The agreement signed between Iran's electrical products company Sunir and Spanish firm Bester Generation envisages joint execution of projects in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, Sunir Managing Director Bahman Salehi said. Salehi and Bester's Executive Director Antonio Sanchez signed a technical engineering agreement to work on designing and producing equipment related to solar and other renewables." http://t.uani.com/1Mk7kiw

Human Rights

ICHRI: "The blatant denial of due process on display on the last day of Jason Rezaian's trial on August 10, 2015, when his lawyer was not allowed to present arguments in response to the prosecutor, confirms the political and pre-ordained nature of the prosecution of the Washington Post reporter who has spent the last year behind bars in Iran. 'During Monday's session I presented an oral defense of my client but there was no opportunity for me to respond after the prosecutor's representative spoke. [Therefore] I submitted my written response to the court,' Rezaian's lawyer, Leila Ahsan, told ISNA (the Iranian Students News Agency). One reporter among the dozens of domestic and international journalists waiting outside the court told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that Rezaian's mother informed the reporters no one was able to interview Jason's wife, Yeganeh Salehi, because she had been banned from speaking to the media. Judge Salavati, of Branch 15 of the Revolutionary Court, presided over Rezaian's case. Salavati has a long history of close cooperation with the intelligence arm of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, and is routinely handpicked by the Judiciary to preside over political cases due to his court rulings and the notoriously harsh sentences he hands down." http://t.uani.com/1f7Gq0b

Opinion & Analysis

WashPost Editorial: "When Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) decided he would vote against President Obama's nuclear deal with Iran, he explained his reasoning in a 1,700-word essay. On balance, he concluded, 'the very real risk that Iran will not moderate and will, instead, use the agreement to pursue its nefarious goals is too great.' We disagree with that conclusion, but not with serene confidence; we share the senator's concern that Iran will use the lifting of sanctions to intensify its toxic behavior in the region. We understand and respect Mr. Schumer's decision; also, it's generally better to treat policy disagreements in good faith. That has not been the spirit in which Mr. Obama and his team have met his Iran-deal critics. The president has countered them with certitude and ad hominem attacks, the combined import of which is that there are no alternatives to his policy, that support for the deal is an obvious call and that nearly anyone who suggests otherwise is motivated by politics or ideology. Mr. Obama's rhetoric reached its low point when he observed that the deal's opponents value war over diplomacy and that Iranian extremists were 'making common cause with the Republican caucus.' This was self-contradictory when the president said it; one of the announced GOP opponents, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker (Tenn.), is a man Mr. Obama himself praised, just four months ago, as 'sincerely concerned about this issue' and 'a good and decent man.' The White House lost further consistency after Mr. Schumer's announcement. If there's anyone who's not a Republican partisan, it's the arch-Democrat from New York, who's planning a bid to lead the Democratic Senate caucus after the current leader, Harry Reid (Nev.), retires. As payback, the White House and its allies are openly encouraging Democrats to deny him the job... By not sticking to the merits of the deal, Mr. Obama implies a lack of confidence in them. The contrast is striking between the president's tone today and his 2008 speech accepting the Democratic nomination: Looking ahead to debating his GOP opponent, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), he pledged that 'what I will not do is suggest that the senator takes his positions for political purposes, because one of the things that we have to change in our politics is the idea that people cannot disagree without challenging each other's character and each other's patriotism.' There's a sad progression from that aspiration to an approach that is all about winning, even if it has to be winning ugly." http://t.uani.com/1hy0EC6

Jeffrey Goldberg in The Atlantic: "A few days ago, I spoke with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry about the politics of the Iran deal (you can find the full interview here), and at one point in our conversation I put to Kerry what I thought was-to be honest-something of a gimme question: 'Do you believe that Iranian leaders sincerely seek the elimination of the Jewish state?' Kerry responded provocatively-provocatively, that is, if you understand Iranian leaders, and in particular the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the way I understand them: as people theologically committed to the destruction of Israel. Quotes such as this one from Khamenei help lead me to this conclusion: 'This barbaric, wolflike, and infanticidal regime of Israel which spares no crime has no cure but to be annihilated.' The supreme leader does not specialize in nuance. (Here is a long list of statements made by Iranian leaders concerning their desire to bring about an end to Jewish sovereignty in any part of the ancestral Jewish homeland.) Kerry's stated understanding of the regime's anti-Semitism is somewhat different from mine. He told me, 'I think they have a fundamental ideological confrontation with Israel at this particular moment. Whether or not that translates into active steps, to quote, 'Wipe it,' you know ...' He paused, and so I filled in the blank: 'Wipe it off the map.' Kerry continued, 'I don't know the answer to that. I haven't seen anything that says to me-they've got 80,000 rockets in Hezbollah pointed at Israel, and any number of choices could have been made. They didn't make the bomb when they had enough material for 10 to 12. They've signed on to an agreement where they say they'll never try and make one and we have a mechanism in place where we can prove that. So I don't want to get locked into that debate. I think it's a waste of time here.' Kerry's understanding, in shorthand: Iran is dangerous to Israel at this moment (he repeated the term 'at this moment' in his next statement, in fact); Iran has had plenty of opportunity to hurt Israel but has chosen not to; and, finally, the answer to the question concerning the true intentions of Iran's leaders when it comes to Israel is unknowable, and also irrelevant to the current discussion. I found many of Kerry's answers to my other questions convincing, but I was troubled by what I took to be his unwillingness, or inability, to grapple squarely with Iran's eliminationist desires. The way he and President Barack Obama understand the question of Iranian-state anti-Semitism is crucially important as we move closer to a congressional vote on the nuclear deal negotiated by Kerry and his team." http://t.uani.com/1Tqjkog
         

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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