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NYT: "After spending 444 days in
captivity, and more than 30 years seeking restitution, the Americans
taken hostage at the United States Embassy in Tehran in 1979 have finally
won compensation. Buried in the huge spending bill signed into law last
Friday are provisions that would give each of the 53 hostages or their
estates up to $4.4 million. Victims of other state-sponsored terrorist
attacks such as the 1998 American Embassy bombings in East Africa would
also be eligible for benefits under the law. 'I had to pull over to the
side of the road, and I basically cried,' said Rodney V. Sickmann, who was
a Marine sergeant working as a guard at the embassy in Tehran when he was
seized along with the other Americans by a mob that overran the compound
on Nov. 4, 1979. 'It has been 36 years, one month, 14 days, obviously,
until President Obama signed the actual bill, until Iran was held
accountable,' he said. The law now stands to bring closure to an episode
that riveted the nation and ruptured America's ties with Iran. The very
agreement that won the hostages' release in 1981 barred them from seeking
restitution. Their legal claims were repeatedly blocked in the courts,
including an appeal denied by the Supreme Court. Congress tried but
failed to pass laws granting them relief. But this year, vindication came
in a decision that forced the Paris-based bank BNP Paribas to pay a $9
billion penalty for violating sanctions against Iran, Sudan and Cuba.
Some of that money was suddenly available for victims of state-sponsored
terrorism. Congress was also motivated by many members' anger over the
Iran nuclear accord. Some of the hostages were subject to physical and
psychological torture during their long ordeal, and many regarded the
thaw as frustrating and premature... The law authorizes payments of up to
$10,000 per day of captivity for each of the 53 hostages, 37 of whom are
still alive... Mr. Sickmann said that he would have preferred that Iran
pay compensation directly, as Libya did for victims of the bombing of Pan
Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, but that he did not expect an
apology from Iran. 'I don't believe that they will ever, ever apologize,'
he said. 'They don't believe that they did anything wrong.'" http://t.uani.com/1PslleF
WSJ: "Ahead of an expected lifting
of sanctions, several U.S. corporate giants including personal-computer
seller HP Inc. and General Electric Inc.'s oil-services unit are actively
exploring a market entry into Iran... On the nuclear agreement's
'implementation day,' the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets
Control will issue a general license authorizing foreign-based arms of
U.S. corporations to engage in activities involving Iran, a U.S. official
said. Worried they could be left behind their European and Asian peers in
the race to do business with a country of over 77 million people, some
American companies have prepared to go as soon as the sanctions lift,
drafting contracts and sending envoys to Iran as the country gets set to
break decades of isolation. 'Major U.S. companies do not seem worried
anymore with covering their tracks in Iran, suggesting a high degree of
confidence in the end of the embargo,' said Denis Florin, head of
Paris-based energy consultancy Lavoisier Conseil, who advises foreign
companies seeking to enter the Islamic Republic. But with sanctions
slated to end soon, looking at Iranian opportunities is no longer as
politically charged as it used to be, he said... U.S. companies have been
consulting with the State Department and Treasury to ensure conversations
held by their non-American subsidiaries remain compliant, according to a
U.S. State Department official and other people familiar with the matter.
'People are exchanging draft contracts but nothing has been signed,' the
U.S. official said. As a result, U.S. companies are sending non-American
subsidiaries to test the waters. In one recent example, Hewlett-Packard
(Suisse) Sarl, the Swiss subsidiary of Palo Alto, Calif.-based HP, last
month circulated draft agreements with Iranian distributors to resell its
consumer products, such as tablets and laptops, in Tehran, according to
people familiar with the prospective contracts. Non-U.S. HP staffers met
the potential distributors in Dubai and Tehran, and last month held an
internal meeting to discuss the opportunity, the people said... Earlier
this year, Lenovo Group Ltd., the world's largest PC maker by volume,
said it was exploring Iranian opportunities and invited dozens of Iranian
retailers to an event at a plush Tehran hotel to drum up interest for its
latest laptops... Last year, Apple Inc. started contacts with Iranian
distributors about possibly entering the country with the full gamut of
its business activities, including selling its iPhones, desktop
computers, laptops and even opening Apple stores, should Western
sanctions ease sufficiently... Other U.S.-registered companies are
testing the waters. A spokesman for international oil-services giant
Schlumberger Ltd., based and registered in Houston, Paris, London and The
Hague, said its representatives attended a conference in Tehran where oil
contracts were presented last month... Representatives from Nuovo
Pignone, an Italian oil and gas subsidiary of GE, visited Iran last month
as part of an Italian government delegation to the country, said a
spokeswoman for the U.S. industrial-equipment maker, which is based in
Fairfield, Conn." http://t.uani.com/1VmkvCz
NYT: "Tensions mounted between Iran
and the United States on Wednesday over a new American law that limits
visa-free travel, which the Iranians regard as a sanction and a violation
of the recently completed nuclear accord... In a letter on Saturday, the day
after President Obama signed the law, Secretary of State John Kerry
sought to reassure his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif, that the administration would use executive authority to
waive the provision if necessary. But five congressional Republicans who
strongly supported the new law delivered a sharp rejoinder to Mr. Kerry
in their own letter on Wednesday. 'We are deeply concerned that the
narrowly intended use of the waiver authority will be ignored in favor of
applying the waiver authority to those who have traveled to Iran for
business purposes,' read the letter, addressed to Mr. Kerry and Jeh
Johnson, the secretary of Homeland Security. 'Congress and the president
strengthened the V.W.P. in order to protect the national security of the
United States,' they wrote, using the initials of the visa waiver
program. 'Iran is impacted by this new law because it is a
U.S.-designated state sponsor of terrorism. The simplest way to eliminate
this restriction is for Iran to end its support of terrorism.' They urged
Mr. Kerry to 'press Tehran on this, as well as its recent missile tests
and persistent jailing of Americans. The problem is with Iranian actions,
not the new visa waiver law.' The letter was signed by Representative Ed
Royce of California, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee; the
House majority leader, Kevin McCarthy of California; Representative Bob
Goodlatte of Virginia, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee;
Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the chairman of the Homeland
Security Committee; and Representative Candice Miller of Michigan, the
author of the new law." http://t.uani.com/1mmb6yB
Nuclear
Program & Agreement
Reuters: "Iran will take reciprocal
measures in response to any breach of this year's nuclear deal, the
Foreign Ministry warned on Monday, after Tehran said new U.S. visa
restrictions contravened the historic agreement... Earlier this month,
the U.S. Congress passed a law restricting visa-free travel rights for
people who have visited Iran or hold dual Iranian nationality, a measure
that Iran's foreign minister called a breach of the deal. The measure,
which affects citizens of the 38 mostly European countries that have visa
waiver arrangements with the United States, is framed as a
counterterrorism measure and also targets Iraq, Syria and Sudan. 'Any
steps taken outside the agreement are unacceptable to Iran, and Iran will
take its own steps in response where necessary,' Foreign Ministry
spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari told a televised news conference when
asked about the U.S. law. He said a committee tasked with overseeing the
deal would be responsible for ordering the Iranian response to any
breaches. Nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi, who heads that committee, has
also said the visa law contravenes the deal." http://t.uani.com/1Sj3z01
AFP: "A top Iranian parliamentary
official has written to his counterparts in Europe, China and Russia
calling on them to oppose 'discriminatory' new US visa regulations. A
bill passed by Congress this month bars citizens from 38 mainly European
countries from travelling to the United States without a visa if they
have previously visited Iran, Iraq, Syria or Sudan since 2011. It also
requires a visa for citizens of those countries if they are dual
nationals of any of the four target nations. Tehran says the new regulations
fly in the face of its landmark nuclear deal struck with major powers,
including the United States, in July. In the letter to his counterparts
in the European parliament, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China,
the chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign
policy committee, Alaedin Boroujerdi, described the law as 'unfair and
discriminatory'. 'I would like to urge you to make every effort to oppose
this decision by the US administration,' he said, quoted by the ISNA news
agency, describing it as a 'destructive blow' to the nuclear agreement...
The move reflects calls by US lawmakers and authorities to reduce
security vulnerabilities after the deadly strikes last month in Paris,
where some of the attackers were French and Belgians who could have
travelled unrestricted to the United States to carry out attacks." http://t.uani.com/1OuPlJO
U.S.-Iran
Relations
WashPost: "Jason Rezaian, The Washington
Post correspondent who has been held captive by the Iranian government
for more than 500 days, was granted a small reprieve Friday when his
captors allowed a Christmas Day visit from his wife and mother. 'After
several efforts, Yegi and I were able to secure permission from the court
to meet with Jason for several hours today, Christmas,' Rezaian's mother,
Mary, said in an email to The Post. Yegi is Rezaian's wife, Yeganeh
Salehi, an Iranian citizen who is a correspondent for the National, a
newspaper based in the United Arab Emirates. 'This is the first time in
the year that I have been visiting him in Evin Prison that I could spend
an extended time there and bring him his first home-cooked meal in
months,' Mary Rezaian said in her email. 'We had a wonderful time
together reminiscing of holidays past.' The Post correspondent earlier
this month marked more than 500 days in captivity. That's longer than the
52 U.S. Embassy personnel who were held captive from November 1979 to
January 1981... Washington Post Executive Editor Martin Baron issued the
following statement: ... 'We welcome this act of basic humanity, and we
encourage his jailers in Iran to follow up by doing all that justice and
decency require: Release Jason from prison and allow him a return to life
as a free man who can spend time with his family where and whenever he
pleases.'" http://t.uani.com/1OoNAra
NBC: "An Iranian hactivist group has
claimed responsibility for a cyberattack that gave it access to the
control system for a dam in the suburbs of New York - an intrusion that
one official said may be 'just the tip of the iceberg.' The group, SOBH
Cyber Jihad, sent a message through another Iran-linked hacker outfit,
Parastoo, promising that it would release the technical information that
proves it was behind the 2013 breach, according to Flashpoint
Intelligence. The hackers claimed they kept quiet about the attack for
two years because of a 'state-level' warning not to go public with it
'for the greater good.' It wasn't until the Wall Street Journal reported
the breach this weekend that SOBH Cyber Jihad said it decided to take
credit for the operation against the Bowman Avenue Dam in Rye Brook,
N.Y., just north of New York City. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said the
revelation should be a wakeup call that the nation's critical
infrastructure is too vulnerable to 'evil-doers' toiling away at
keyboards." http://t.uani.com/1Jc3QzI
Congressional
Action
Free
Beacon: "More
than 20 lawmakers have penned letters to the Obama administration
expressing anger over its recent decision to waive certain
counter-terrorism measures aimed at preventing potential terrorists from
easily entering the United States in order to assuage Iran. The letters
from members of Congress come days after the Obama administration
promised Iranian leaders it would veto newly passed initiatives
tightening the U.S. visa waiver program to close loopholes that have
enabled a number of terrorists to enter the country legally... Secretary
of State John Kerry said in a recent letter to Javad Zarif, the country's
foreign minister, that the administration would ignore the enhanced
counter-terrorism measures. In two separate letters sent Tuesday to the
Departments of State and Homeland Security, lawmakers described this
action as unconscionable and noted that Iranian actions have been
responsible for killing a number of Americans. 'While we understand that
Iranian officials have expressed their anxieties to you that this new
provision could undermine business opportunities in Iran by international
investors, it is beyond belief that those concerns would supersede a
newly-enacted U.S. law designed to protect the American people from
terrorism,' wrote 20 members of Congress, including Republican Reps. Bob
Dold (Ill.), David Joyce (Ohio), Ron DeSantis (Fla.), and Mark Walker
(N.C.). The law, which the president has already signed but has
threatened to waive in order to calm Iran, 'clearly denies eligibility
for the visa waiver program to individuals who have traveled to a country
that is designated by the Secretary of State' as a top global sponsor of
terrorism, they wrote. The lawmakers maintain that 'there is no
legitimate justification to create a special exemption for Iran from an
anti-terrorism an security law that was specifically designed to include
Iran,' they wrote. 'Iran does not get to veto U.S. security measures.'
Rep. Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.) independently sent his own letter to Kerry on
Tuesday, warning that the administration's actions 'would put U.S.
citizens at risk.'" http://t.uani.com/1OgWKKH
Sanctions
Relief
WashPost: "In Iran, cheap oil is forcing
the government to ratchet down expectations. The much-anticipated lifting
of sanctions as a result of the deal to limit Iran's nuclear program is
expected to result in an additional half-million barrels a day of oil
exports by the middle of 2016. But at current prices, Iran's income from
those sales will still fall short of revenue earned from constrained oil
exports a year ago. Moreover, low prices are making it difficult for Iran
to persuade international oil companies to develop Iran's long-neglected
oil and gas fields, which have been off limits since sanctions were
broadened in 2012. 'Should Iran come out of sanctions, they will face a
very different market than the one they had left in 2012,' Amos
Hochstein, the State Department's special envoy and coordinator for
international energy affairs, said in an interview. 'They were forced to
recede in a world of over $100 oil, and sanctions will be lifted at $36
oil. They will have to work harder to convince companies to come in and
take the risk for supporting their energy infrastructure and their energy
production.'" http://t.uani.com/1IyEKuX
Syria
Conflict
AFP: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan Sunday accused Iran of sectarian policies in neighboring Syria by
putting its weight behind Syrian President Bashar Assad. 'Had Iran not
stood behind Assad for sectarian reasons, today maybe we would not be
discussing an issue like Syria,' Erdogan said in a televised speech in
Istanbul. Iran and Turkey are on opposing sides of the Syrian conflict,
with Ankara supporting rebels fighting Assad and joining a U.S.-led
coalition bombing the Islamic State group in Syria." http://t.uani.com/1RNSMM4
Human
Rights
Rudaw: "At least 24 people from various
parts of the country were executed in Iran last week, according to
official media. The Iranian judicial authorities announced the convicts
were armed narcotics smugglers and among them some who were executed for
murder. The executions took place in provinces such as Qazvin, Hormozgan
and Shiraz. Activists from the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA)
condemned the hangings and said in a report that the number of executions
were far higher than reported by the state. The agency said that five other
prisoners were also executed in Kerman and only one of them was charged
with drug trafficking." http://t.uani.com/1NL9SWO
ICHRI: "The well-known Iranian poet
Mohamadreza Haj Rostambegloo was released on bail from Karaj's Central
Prison last week, following his third arrest by the authorities in Iran
in the last six years. His mother, Maryam Soltani, told the International
Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that he was freed on December 20, 2015,
after posting 700 million rials (about $23,240) bail, four days after he
was arrested by agents of the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence
Organization. His passport, national ID card, mobile phone, and computer
tablet were confiscated, she added. The 41-year-old poet, whose books
include The Last Tango Under the Moonlight and Now Mona Lisa, was
arrested on two previous occasions. In 2009 he was held in detention for
five days after taking part in a demonstration following the disputed
presidential election results." http://t.uani.com/1MDat9g
ICHRI: "Hassan Sheikh Aghaei, the
editor of a Kurdish-Persian news site, was released on two billion rials
(about $67,000) bail on December 6, 2015, after 60 days in detention in
Mahabad Prison, 30 days of which he spent in solitary confinement. Sheik
Aghaei's arrest and detention takes place within a crackdown by
hardliners against independent journalists in Iran. A source close to
Sheikh Aghaei told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran
that his arrest was in connection with a number of articles and cartoons
published on his site, Ruwange, which covers news in western Iran. The
site has not been updated since his arrest." http://t.uani.com/1NKZY7H
Domestic
Politics
AFP: "Iran postponed two premier
league football matches on Sunday, state media said, as air pollution
more than twice the acceptable level persisted in the capital. The games
-- between Tehran teams and clubs visiting from Mashhad and Tabriz --
were rescheduled for Tuesday after Tehran's environment authority
recommended 'refraining from all sport activities,' the Fars news agency
said. Severe air pollution earlier this week had already led authorities
to close schools for three days in and around the capital, where an
estimated 14 million people live. The Air Quality Index in Tehran on
Sunday stood at 132, an official told state television, well above the
World Health Organisation's advised level of between zero and 50.
Mohammad Rastegari advised the elderly, children and sick people --
including those suffering heart problems -- to stay indoors." http://t.uani.com/1NL8pjm
Foreign
Affairs
AP: "Iranian President Hassan
Rouhani accused archrival Saudi Arabia Sunday of promoting poverty and
terrorism by continuing to bomb Yemeni rebels and supporting armed rebels
fighting to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad in Syria. Addressing a
conference in Tehran, Rouhani suggested that destroying Syria won't
strengthen those governments in the region which support the anti-Assad
rebels. 'Does the weakening of Syria benefit its Muslim neighbors? Does
the destruction of Syria lead to the strengthening of Turkey, Jordan,
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates or other countries? Who is
pleased by Syria's destruction other than Israel,' Rouhani said...
Rouhani said the Islamic State group and other armed groups are defaming
Islam by resorting to barbaric acts and that has led to Muslim states
forgetting their common enemy: Israel. 'How many bombs and missiles have
you purchased from the U.S. in the past year,' Rouhani asked in an
apparent reference to Saudi Arabia. 'If you had distributed the same
money among poor Muslims, none of them would have gone to bed
hungry.'" http://t.uani.com/1OU3s5t
Opinion
& Analysis
Roland
Elliott Brown in IranWire: "Earlier this year, Iran reached an agreement with the
US and five other world powers -- Britain, France, Germany, Russia and
China -- over the future of its nuclear program. In exchange for Iran's
agreement to ensure that its program is peaceful, the US and its European
allies have lifted a wide range of sanctions hindering Iran's involvement
in the world economy. Reports abound of foreign investors flocking to
Iran to size up the new market. Even so, the investment scene in Iran
will not be a free-for-all. Investors must carefully gauge the risks of
entering an untested business environment, and of falling foul of
remaining US sanctions... Investors arriving in Tehran will encounter a
President-Hassan Rouhani-who is eager for investment, but also a
conservative leadership and security state wary of foreign influence.
'Iran has not politically made up its mind whether it wants foreign firms
to operate inside Iran,' says Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of
economics at Virginia Tech. 'Iran is still a revolutionary country with
fluid politics and a vociferous radical wing that dislikes foreign
presence.' Yet while Iran's historical experience with foreign investment
had been clouded by coups and foreign intrigue, he says, Supreme Leader
Ali Khamenei has not opposed foreign investment. Iranian officials,
Salehi-Isfahani says, are likely to seek foreign direct investment that
will bring western capital to Iran, transfer technology, and train
Iranian workers. They are less keen to see Iran simply become a major
consumer market. But even where foreign direct investment is concerned,
the state has some doubts. 'There is fear in Iran that too many foreign
investors may make it harder to enforce restrictions regarding hejab,
drinking alcohol, and so on.' The model for cautious investors, he says,
might be the experience of investors in China, who have done business
successfully without proselytizing against the communist government.
Investors will also face continued risks from remaining US sanctions,
which will continue to target specific Iranian entities, notably the
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC is widely believed to
be heavily -- and sometimes obscurely -- involved in Iran's economy. 'As
long as the US government maintains those sanctions against the IRGC,'
says Ali Alfoneh of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 'companies
will face great difficulties proving that their Iranian business partner
is not an affiliate of, or entirely or partially owned by the IRGC. Only
small companies with little or no presence in the American market can
afford to ignore US sanctions against the IRGC.' Unless foreign companies
can find a way of negotiating this dilemma, they are likely to face
financing difficulties. 'Financial institutions will be reluctant to
process trade and provide project finance unless they can be sure of the
beneficial owners of any Iranian entities involved in a transaction,'
says Henry Smith of the London-based consultancy Control Risks.
'Companies considering consortiums to deliver or finance projects will
need to have a shared understanding and threshold of risk in order to
decide which entities they - and their financial partners - will be
comfortable engaging with.'" http://t.uani.com/1JEsELI
Josh
Rogin in Bloomberg:
"A Supreme Court case on compensating victims of terrorism gives
House Republicans and the Obama administration a chance to agree about
Iran for the first time in a long time. With bipartisan support, the
House is weighing in on a pending case in which Tehran is trying to avoid
paying the American victims of terror attacks linked to the Iranian
government, including the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut
and the 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. At issue is
whether Iran's central bank, Bank Markazi, will be forced to pay damages
to over 1,300 American plaintiffs. Some are victims of attacks the U.S.
government has linked to the Iranian government. Others are surviving
family members of such victims. Although U.S. courts have found the
Iranian government culpable for the attacks and ordered payment, Iran has
never admitted responsibility and never abided by the U.S. judicial
system's calls for it to pay billions of dollars in awarded damages.
However, in 2008, the victims discovered that Bank Markazi had almost $2
billion stored in Citibank accounts in New York. The victims sued for
that money, and the litigation has now reached the Supreme Court. In
2012, President Barack Obama issued an executive order blocking all of
Bank Markazi's assets held in the U.S., preventing the Iranian government
from taking them back to Iran. At the same time, Congress passed the Iran
Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012, which included a
provision that made it easier for the victims to get the funds that the
administration blocked... The fight over the $2 billion is nearing an
end. In October, the Supreme Court decided to hear the case. The Obama
administration has already filed a brief urging the court not to overturn
the decisions of the circuit and appeals courts, which awarded the
victims the frozen funds. Today, the House of Representatives will file a
brief, which I obtained, to support the administration's position. 'The
House has taken action to help more than 1,300 Americans -- victims of
Iranian-sponsored terrorism and their families -- recover the damages
they deserve from the Central Bank of Iran,' House Speaker Paul Ryan told
me in a statement. 'Nothing can heal the horror of terrorism, but the
U.S. must do everything in its power to deliver justice to its victims.'
Ryan said that if the Supreme Court sides with Iran's central bank, the
victims of the Beirut bombings, the Khobar Towers bombing and several other
terrorist attacks will be left without aid. He also said that if the
court strikes down the law, the legislative powers of the Congress could
be 'dangerously compromised.' The amicus brief was filed by the
Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group, a committee that oversees such matters
made up of the House leaders of both parties. The leaders also circulated
a 'Dear Colleague' letter to lawmakers, 226 of whom signed on to support
the brief... On most issues of Iran policy, the Obama administration is
fighting with Congress -- largely because the White House is trying to
work with Tehran to implement the nuclear deal. But on this one case, the
White House, Republicans Congressional Democrats seem to agree. To get
that $2 billion from Iran, the victims need to convince just one more
group: the justices." http://t.uani.com/22uNxEE
Patrick
Clawson in WINEP:
"Iranian president Hassan Rouhani has been eager to schedule the
nuclear deal's Implementation Day before the February midterm elections
in order to demonstrate that the economy is on the mend. But a December
21 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report documents the many challenges
facing Iran's economy even if sanctions relief arrives soon, and the
2016/17 budget that Rouhani sent to the Majlis on December 22 does little
to address those challenges. Rouhani's election promise to restore
economic growth by completing a nuclear deal looked pretty good in
2014/15 (Iranian years begin March 20). The modest easing of sanctions
and improved confidence contributed to 3% GDP growth that year, while
consumer prices rose only 15% compared to 35% the year before. On
September 6, 2014, Rouhani told an audience in Mashhad, 'Today, we can
thankfully announce that we have passed through the recession.' But then
things went sour. The IMF forecasts that in 2015/16, GDP will end up
someplace between shrinking 0.5% and growing 0.5%, while consumer prices
will increase at the same rate as last year. Unemployment is expected to
rise from 10.4% in 2013/14 to 11.9% this year. The Tehran Stock Exchange
index is 30% below the January 2014 peak, and imports are forecast to
fall 10% this year... Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration
was rightly savaged for its mismanagement and opacity, yet the Rouhani
team has not lived up to the high hopes that it would run a tighter ship.
A year and a half into his term, as the IMF report delicately puts it,
'The exact amount of public debt is not known precisely, as only a
limited part of debt is recorded ... Preliminary estimates of Iran's
public debt are expected by end-2015.' The debt includes an unknown
amount of arrears owed to businesses run up in the past two years: 'The
authorities were finalizing an inventory of all government arrears and a
strategy to clear them.' Moreover, information is fragmentary at best
about the finances of a long list of governmental and quasigovernmental
bodies, including the subsidy-providing government agency, regional
governments, nonfinancial public enterprises, regional governments, and
public foundations. The banking system is in bad shape as well. The
section of the IMF report covering Iran's banks is titled 'Unlocking
Balance Sheets: An Immediate Priority to Support Growth,' and it opens
with an ominous warning: 'The complexity and severity of the challenges
facing the banking system require immediate action.' Thus far, the
Rouhani team has accomplished little on this front: '[The authorities]
explained that an initial financial health check of banks had been
finalized, suggesting substantially higher levels of [non-performing
loans], and they expect to initiate a more detailed assessment of the
largest banks soon.' Rouhani has also failed to tackle the problem of
overvalued currency. The IMF report points out that 'overvaluation ...
persisted over the last year,' noting that 'economic fundamentals would
have called for a depreciation.' ... Throughout his election campaign,
Rouhani offered a simple analysis: the economy's main problem was
sanctions, and a nuclear deal was the best way to relieve them. That
formula is not looking so good today. Not only will the benefits of
sanctions relief arrive slowly, but the drop in oil prices has
highlighted Iran's overreliance on that resource. Khamenei's 'resistance
economy' formula for stimulating the non-oil sector is looking better and
better as a way to create badly needed jobs. Meanwhile, Rouhani's
secondary election theme -- restoring competent management in place of
the Ahmadinejad team's corruption and ineptitude -- looks less and less
impressive. Perhaps Rouhani will achieve the optimistic targets he set
out in a December 23 speech: 5% growth, 9.9% inflation, 75% of government
revenue from non-oil sources, and a 90% (nominal) increase in development
spending. But many Iranian economists are skeptical. In an October IMF
press release, Martin Cerisola, the head of the team that prepared this
month's Iran report, was quoted as follows: 'Risks to the outlook are
significant, and longer-term prospects will depend crucially on the depth
of reforms that are undertaken ... Ultimately, if mild reforms are
implemented, the sanctions relief will have only a moderate positive
impact on the economy.' That statement ably sums up the relative weight
of sanctions relief and domestic policy as influences on Iran's economy.
The oft-heard mantra about Iran policy -- that the West needs to help
moderates like Rouhani -- looks pretty thin if those moderates do little
to help themselves. Their problems in the economic sphere are
overwhelmingly their own doing, not a result of any actions the West does
or does not take." http://t.uani.com/1Vmp4ga
Elliot
Abrams in CFR:
"Since the signing of the nuclear deal with Islamic Republic of
Iran, that government has treated the Obama administration with contempt.
U.S. officials might have hoped Iran's conduct would improve, but it has
worsened. Iran sent more Revolutionary Guard troops to fight in Syria,
for example; it conducted two ballistic missile tests in violation of a
Security Council resolution; leaders continue to chant 'Death to
America;' and it has imprisoned more Americans. What is the Obama administration's
response? To beg their pardon. I refer to a remarkable letter sent by
Secretary of State Kerry to Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. Iran, in an
additional gesture of contempt, has complained about new United States
visa requirements placed on persons who have traveled to Iran (or Iraq,
Sudan, or Syria). These requirements were recently added so that people
who had visited those countries could not come to the United States
without getting a visa even if they were from countries that are part of
the 'visa waiver' program. The obvious purpose: to avoid having
terrorists get to the United States through a program that allows them to
avoid the visa application process and the information it would supply.
Iran has complained that 'Zionist lobbies' put the new rules in place, a
good reminder of the nature of the regime. How did the United States
react? By denouncing the Iranian attacks on 'Zionist lobbies,' which came
from the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry? By noting that Iran is the
world's worst state sponsor of terrorism? By recalling the fact that Iran
just violated U.N. Security Council resolutions, and continues to jail
innocent American citizens? Nope. By offering reassurance that we
certainly do not mean to disadvantage Iran in any possible way... Let's
put aside the thanks to Zarif for a 'constructive meeting.' We can be
sure that Zarif was advancing Iranian national interests, and for doing
that he deserves no thanks from us. The tone of the letter would be fine
were it addressed to the foreign minister of Canada. Must we really
assure the representative of this vile, repressive regime that regardless
of its behavior we will bend over backwards and use every tool possible
('we have a number of potential tools available to us, including multiple
entry ten-year business visas, programs for expediting business visas,
and the waiver authority provided under the new legislation') to defend
and advance its 'legitimate business interests?' Here's one of many
possible alternative formulations: the ability and willingness of the
United States government to use the tools at its disposal will depend on
the treatment Iran accords American citizens whom it has unjustly
detained and imprisoned. Mr. Kerry seems more worried about offending
Iran than freeing those Americans-whose imprisonment was an issue set
aside during the nuclear negotiations. Must we set it aside forever as we
protect Iran's 'legitimate business interests?'" http://t.uani.com/1VmpeEg
WSJ
Editorial:
"Iran's ayatollahs are fond of timing and symbolism. So it's no
accident that the regime freed jailed Christian Pastor Farshid Fathi on
Tuesday in time for Christmas. The news is welcome, but it doesn't mean
the mullahs are calling time-out on their war on dissidents. Security
forces arrested Pastor Fathi five years ago and held him for months in
solitary confinement before convicting him on charges that included
'evangelism' and possession of Persian-language Bibles, considered
contraband in the Islamic Republic. Evangelical Christianity is exploding
in Iran today, with conversion estimates ranging from 300,000 to half a
million. Braving intense repression, new believers flock to online
ministries and house churches such as the one founded by Pastor Fathi.
Meantime, thousands of innocent prisoners still languish in Iran's jails.
These include at least four American citizens: Christian Pastor Saeed
Abedini, former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati, Washington Post correspondent
Jason Rezaian and Iranian-American businessman Siamak Namazi. President
Obama has issued tepid statements of concern about such cases. Republican
and Democratic presidential contenders could help the cause of the
Americans by making it clear that they will do more to punish this kind
of hostage taking. Now that he's free, Pastor Fathi will face pressure to
leave the country. Yet forced exile won't diminish the power of his
spiritual example. 'Although the beauty of Christmas . . . cannot be
found in this prison,' he wrote in a letter to followers last December,
'with the ears of faith I can hear the everlasting and beautiful truth
that 'the Virgin will conceive and give birth to a Son, and they will
call him Immanuel.'' Merry Christmas, Pastor Fathi." http://t.uani.com/1NLcDaF
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