Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Eye on Iran: U.S. Carrier Harry S. Truman Has Close Call With Iranian Rockets






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NBC: "Senior U.S. military commanders on Wednesday accused Iran's military of 'highly provocative' actions in firing unguided rockets 1,500 yards from ships including an American aircraft carrier. The USS Harry S. Truman was crossing international waters in the Strait of Hormuz when Iranian Revolutionary Guards (IRCGN) conducted a live-fire exercise right nearby, according to a statement. An Iranian navy attack craft fired several unguided rockets near the carrier, officials said. A French frigate, the U.S. destroyer USS Bulkeley and other commercial traffic were also in the area at the time of Saturday's incident. Only 23 seconds warning was given before the weapons were fired, according to U.S. Navy Cmdr. Kyle Raines, a spokesman for U.S. Central Command. The rockets were not fired at the Truman and other ships, and there were no direct communications between U.S. and Iranian navies, military officials said. 'The IRGCN's actions were highly provocative,' Cmdr. Kevin Stephens, spokesman for the U.S. Fifth Fleet, said Wednesday in a statement. 'Firing weapons so close to passing coalition ships and commercial traffic within an internationally recognized maritime traffic lane is unsafe, unprofessional, and inconsistent with international maritime law.'" http://t.uani.com/1Vpz1t8

WSJ: "President Barack Obama announced two years ago he would curtail eavesdropping on friendly heads of state after the world learned the reach of long-secret U.S. surveillance programs. But behind the scenes, the White House decided to keep certain allies under close watch, current and former U.S. officials said. Topping the list was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The U.S., pursuing a nuclear arms agreement with Iran at the time, captured communications between Mr. Netanyahu and his aides that inflamed mistrust between the two countries and planted a political minefield at home when Mr. Netanyahu later took his campaign against the deal to Capitol Hill. The National Security Agency's targeting of Israeli leaders and officials also swept up the contents of some of their private conversations with U.S. lawmakers and American-Jewish groups. That raised fears-an 'Oh-s- moment,' one senior U.S. official said-that the executive branch would be accused of spying on Congress. White House officials believed the intercepted information could be valuable to counter Mr. Netanyahu's campaign. They also recognized that asking for it was politically risky. So, wary of a paper trail stemming from a request, the White House let the NSA decide what to share and what to withhold, officials said. 'We didn't say, Do it,' a senior U.S. official said. 'We didn't say, Don't do it.' Stepped-up NSA eavesdropping revealed to the White House how Mr. Netanyahu and his advisers had leaked details of the U.S.-Iran negotiations-learned through Israeli spying operations-to undermine the talks; coordinated talking points with Jewish-American groups against the deal; and asked undecided lawmakers what it would take to win their votes, according to current and former officials familiar with the intercepts... Privately, Mr. Obama maintained the monitoring of Mr. Netanyahu on the grounds that it served a 'compelling national security purpose,' according to current and former U.S. officials... Soon after, Israel's lobbying campaign against the deal went into full swing on Capitol Hill, and it didn't take long for administration and intelligence officials to realize the NSA was sweeping up the content of conversations with lawmakers." http://t.uani.com/1NR29GP

Fars (Iran): "Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani announced that the country will gain access to modern nuclear technology to upgrade its centrifuges. 'Iran will have a new generation of centrifuges in the (near) future that can help the country to improve its nuclear technology structure,' Larijani said, addressing a ceremony in the city of Qom, Central Iran, on Wednesday. He reiterated that the quality of centrifuges is more important than their quantity, and said, 'The new generation of Iran's centrifuges will be of a much higher quality as compared with the previous ones.' In mid-September, Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi announced that Iran was seeking Russia's help to enhance its centrifuges." http://t.uani.com/1OsBugS

Sanctions Relief

Mehr (Iran): "An MoU was signed between Iran's ISOICO and the Russian Krasnye Barrikady Shipyard on the sidelines of Russian National Industrial Exhibition - Trade and Industrial Dialogue: Russia - Iran 2015. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed by managing directors of Iran Shipbuilding and Offshore Industries Complex Company (ISOICO) and the managing director of Russia's Krasnye Barrikady Shipyard with the presence of Iran's Deputy Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade Mojtaba Khosro Taj. 'Being Russia's largest shipyard, Krasnye Barrikady is active in the production of ships and vessels for transporting petrochemicals as well as building oil rigs,' ISOICO Managing Director Hamid Rezaeian told the reporters on Sunday deeming the newly-signed MoU as a major step in the development of his company's activities... 'With the signing of the MoU, Iran will enter the Russian market with ISOICO trademark,' highlighted the official asserting 'the other significant advantage pertains to the receiving of international approvals by the Russian firm's rating agency.'" http://t.uani.com/1JfBUuR

Press TV (Iran): "Iranian shipbuilder ISOICO says it has signed an agreement with Russian shipyard Krasnye Barrikady (Red Barricades) for oil rig construction and technology transfer. ISOICO Managing Director Hamid Rezaian said the agreement will allow his company to take advantage of the Russian firm's facilities to produce certain equipment. 'We are ready to provide ISOICO with the necessary equipment thanks to financial and insurance support of the Russian government,' Red Barricades CEO Alexander Ilyichev said. The deal was signed earlier this month in Tehran where representatives of 80 leading Russian companies showcased their products in the biggest foreign display of the kind ever held in Iran. Under the agreement, the two sides will jointly build rigs for exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Persian Gulf waters." http://t.uani.com/1JJ6V5o

Bloomberg: "Turkish brokerage and advisory firm Unlu Yatirim Holding AS is targeting Iran for its first expansion outside its home market as the impending removal of trade sanctions on the Islamic republic presents opportunities to investors. The Istanbul-based firm plans to offer brokerage services in Iran and start the first hedge fund in Turkey that invests in Iranian fixed income and stocks in 2016, Chairman Mahmut Unlu said in a telephone interview on Monday. The fund, which has already received approval from the capital markets regulator in Ankara, may have an initial size of around $50 million, which could increase depending on subscriptions, he said. 'We are very hopeful, based on information from Iranian officials and international nuclear monitors, that sanctions will start to be removed from late January or February at the latest, if everything goes as planned,' Unlu said... Unlu Yatirim is in talks with an Iranian brokerage for a joint venture and will soon begin to provide equity research for listed Iranian companies for its international clients, Unlu said. If the venture talks fail, Unlu has permission from Iranian authorities to establish a brokerage by itself, he said." http://t.uani.com/1NR7f5X

Domestic Politics

Al-Monitor: "The registration process for the February 2016 parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections has come to end with a record number of candidates: Nearly 12,000 individuals registered to compete for a seat in the 290-member parliament. It will be the job of the conservative Guardian Council to determine which candidates pass through their filters and ultimately will be allowed to run. While the council is not obligated to specify publicly why the candidates are qualified or disqualified, it seems the 2009 presidential elections will be a central factor in their decision-making process. Guardian Council spokesman Nejatollah Ebrahimian told Tasnim News Agency on Dec. 27 that the council will review all the comments and actions of the candidates during 2009 postelection protests. He said that the behavior of the candidates should not have been such that it could be construed that they participated in the illegal activities during 2009, adding they should have 'clear and specific lines drawn with the sedition of 2009.'" http://t.uani.com/1QYsBT7

AFP: "More than two weeks of heavy pollution led Iranian officials to ban all outdoor sport and impose new traffic restrictions Wednesday as persistent cold weather exacerbated Tehran's air quality problems. In the worst concerted period of pollution for three years, primary schools and nurseries were closed and new car exclusion zones imposed in the capital. Tehran's air quality index averaged 159 on Wednesday, up two from the previous day, and more than three times the World Health Organization's maximum advised level of between zero and 50... The official IRNA news agency reported that it was the 18th straight day of dangerously bad air while newspapers quoted officials casting blame on each other for the problem and failure to tackle it... While Tehran is the epicentre the pollution also closed primary schools in other major cities including Isfahan, Qom, Arak and Tabriz." http://t.uani.com/1Tpu2Y5

Opinion & Analysis

David Ignatius in WashPost: "One of the arguments for the Iran nuclear deal was that it would encourage greater openness and investment from the West. But Iranian hard-liners have been working in recent months to sabotage the proponents of economic globalization and change. The clearest example is the case of an Iranian American businessman named Siamak Namazi, 44, who was arrested around Oct. 14. Iran hasn't announced any formal charges, but he has been accused in the Iranian press of being a tool of such institutions as the World Economic Forum, the National Endowment for Democracy, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. According to Iranian press accounts, Namazi is being held by the intelligence service of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in a special section of Evin Prison. News organizations close to the IRGC have published conspiracy stories that appear to be drawn from his interrogation and from information on his laptop. The allegations center, bizarrely, on Namazi's status as a 'Young Global Leader' under a program organized by the World Economic Forum. A story posted on the hard-line website Raja News describes the forum and its youth fellowships as part of a 'Zionist' network that uses investment and trade as tools of political subversion. Another story, posted by Jahan News, links Namazi to the other think tanks and foundations that it claims are part of a Western 'influence network.' ... The Namazi incident is a reality check for those who hoped that the nuclear agreement would be the prelude to a broader opening. Since the agreement was reached in July, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has repeatedly said that Iran won't allow economic 'infiltration' by a United States he described last month as a 'deceitful, crafty, skillful, fraudulent and devilish enemy.' The imprisonment of Namazi in October came days after an Iranian court convicted Post reporter Jason Rezaian, also an Iranian American, on charges of espionage. Marty Baron, The Post's executive editor, called the verdict 'an outrageous injustice.' ... The message from the hard-liners, whose IRGC-linked businesses have prospered since the revolution, is that they won't give up economic or political power to the old elite, as sanctions are lifted and foreign investment grows in Iran. Just as the IRGC evidently hopes, the Namazi case has chilled some Iranian American business leaders who had considered investing in Iran. An example is a group called iBridges, which includes some wealthy Iranian Americans, such as Hamid Biglari, who was a senior executive at Citigroup... But iBridges has been attacked in the Iranian press, and some of its members - who were enthusiastic just a few months ago about funding start-ups in Iran - are said to be reconsidering. Says one Iranian American who has pulled back from planned investments: 'All this is a warning shot across the bow to the entire diaspora: Don't even think about coming back to rebuild relations with the West.' Rouhani and other pragmatists argue that foreign investment will strengthen Iran and boost its national security. But hard-liners insist that Western money is a tool of the Great Satan that will undermine the revolution. This battle over foreign influence will be one of Iran's fault lines in the year ahead." http://t.uani.com/1TpwNsz

WashPost Editorial: "Jason Rezaian, the Post journalist imprisoned in Iran, has now been held longer than any U.S. correspondent jailed anywhere abroad in at least the past quarter-century, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ). On Wednesday he will spend his 527th day in captivity, deprived not only of freedom but also of any semblance of justice. Though his trial ended Aug. 10, neither Mr. Rezaian nor his lawyer has yet been informed of a verdict or sentence against him. In continuing to hold him, Iran openly violates its own laws, not to mention basic standards of human rights. Unfortunately, such arbitrary and cruel treatment is not unusual for journalists in the world's unfree countries. According to the CPJ, 199 were in prison because of their work in 28 countries on Dec. 1. Mr. Rezaian was one of 19 jailed in Iran alone. At least 70 other media workers were killed in 2015, including 47 who were singled out for murder in order to silence them... The leading jailers of journalists identified by the CPJ were grimly familiar: China, Egypt, Eritrea and Turkey were at the top of the list, along with Iran... Autocratic regimes single out journalists because they almost always get away with it. The State Department, like other Western government agencies, issues protests when reporters are jailed, but rarely takes action... In Mr. Rezaian's case, the Obama administration did not seek his release as part of the nuclear accord reached this summer. The lack of consequences surely has contributed to Mr. Rezaian's record confinement - which, unlike the nuclear deal, President Obama should not want for a legacy." http://t.uani.com/1JJ7PyH

Samuel Rubenfeld in WSJ: "Changing sanctions on Iran will be a top focus for companies as a nuclear deal starts to take effect, experts told Risk & Compliance Journal. Sanctions on Iran are scheduled to undergo major changes during 2016, marking the biggest challenge in sanctions compliance over the next year, experts say. Companies are deeply interested in the Iranian market, but measures that will remain in place, as well as other risks, may give them pause before entering. The U.S. is 'moving a lot on Iran on nuclear [sanctions], but it will move less than people think it will,' said Zachary Brez, a partner at law firm Ropes & Gray, who said he's fielding lots of calls on Iran from clients... Companies seeking to operate in Iran long-term will be dependent on Tehran satisfying the demands of the agreement amid threats of the snap-back of sanctions, and that seems risky, said Mr. Brez, noting that he expects Iranian compliance with the deal to come in fits and starts. 'It's really hard for a business to operate under that kind of uncertainty,' said Mr. Brez. Douglas Jacobson, a partner at the international trade law firm Jacobson Burton Kelley LLP, has been skeptical of the conventional wisdom that Implementation Day will come as quickly as January, and that companies will flood into Iran immediately thereafter. 'I think there will be some initial reluctance by non-U.S. companies because Iran isn't an easy place to do business,' he said. The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control is expected in early 2016-ahead of Implementation Day-to issue guidance spelling out how companies will navigate the new sanctions landscape without violating existing rules. Experts said they expect a general license on Implementation Day explicitly laying out permissible conduct. How broadly the license will be written is unclear, however, they said. Richard Matheny, a partner at law firm Goodwin Procter, said the general license from OFAC 'could be the first time we get meat on the bones' on what constitutes 'facilitation' under sanctions law. Facilitation refers to the acts by a U.S. parent to further the business of its subsidiary, and Mr. Jacobson said it's unclear whether that includes handling transactions, cloud use for data processing or more. 'The business community wants it as broad as possible' said Mr. Jacobson, noting that the increased corporate use of the cloud across a company's international operations and subsidiaries could pose problems. Mr. Matheny, however, questioned how the U.S. parent companies will manage the facilitation risk while allowing their foreign subsidiaries to take advantage of the general license. 'Infecting a foreign company with Iran issues might make it less attractive to U.S. investment or engagement,' he said. Meanwhile, Mr. Jacobson said, the U.S. will still be looking to enforce its existing sanctions on Iran. 'OFAC will put its money where its mouth is, and BIS [the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security] and ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] will patrol the export side,' said Mr. Jacobson. 'No one will be safe, unless they are in full compliance,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1mpCkEB

Roger Boyes in Times of London: "As vampires shy away from garlic, so Iran's hardliners recoil from the whiff of change. If all goes according to plan, western sanctions against the Tehran regime will be lifted in early 2016 and among the Iranian young there is a sense that the country will soon reconnect with the modern world. The ski resort of Dizin is poised to be the new Verbier; across the country 25 new hotels could be built every year to cope with the anticipated influx of foreigners. Deal-makers are everywhere in the capital waiting for the moment that the world declares Iran to be open again for business. Yet, as far as the hardliners are concerned, this is the moment of maximum danger for the survival of the theocratic regime. Since the West signed the nuclear containment deal with Iran in July, the authorities have been tightening the screws. An Iranian American has been detained on nonsensical charges. When a Baha'i businessman was shot in the back of the head, his cousin decided to investigate and was framed on drugs charges this autumn. Executions have steeply increased, even of juvenile offenders. The prisons are full. And throughout the region Iran is sowing discord. In the days of the Shah, his more devout critics would talk of gharbzadegi - the illness from the West, westoxification. Mimicking the West was seen as a betrayal of Persia's cultural heritage. So when today's enthusiasts for the nuclear deal talk of Iran's ski slopes becoming a magnet for the world, conservative Tehranis recall only the Shah relaxing in St Moritz surrounded by sycophantic courtiers, one of whom was required to procure young lovers for the ruler in the apres-ski discos; hardliners believe that exercising nuclear self-restraint at the bidding of the US is ushering in a new age of decadence. These voices are being ignored by the Obama administration in the rush to declare the nuclear accord to be a key part of the presidential legacy. Barack Obama wants to be the leader who ended 'dumb wars'. In dealing with Iran, that has meant exaggerating the power of its president Hassan Rouhani and believing in his sincerity as well as his tweeting corps of Anglophone advisers. And it means writing off Rouhani's opponents as doomed enemies of modernity. This will be the undoing of the accord. Margaret Thatcher placed her chips on Mikhail Gorbachev and, for a while, she was right. But Gorbachev begat Yeltsin and Yeltsin begat Putin. Rouhani is even more of a transitional figure than Gorbachev... One central flaw of the accord is its expiry date. The US considers it a diplomatic victory that it has blocked the Iranian pathway to a bomb for the next 15 years and that Iran has agreed to the monitoring of the whole supply chain. What happens, though, if, as must be expected, the regime cheats? What happens if the Iranian Revolutionary Guard steps up its activities with Bashar al-Assad, with Hezbollah and Hamas, and turns Iran not into a promising new partner but more of a destructive force? What happens if Rouhani is replaced with a leader who couldn't give a fig for pieces of paper signed with a former US administration? Cheating is supposed to be met by 'snapback' sanctions, or immediate penalties. The snapback principle will, however, only be applied for major breaches. The most likely outcome is that small-scale violations will be referred to a joint review commission - and, after due delay, Iran will promise to rectify the shortcoming. The regime will aim to engineer a culture of accommodation, of nudges and winks. But the point of talking to Iran is to build credible deterrence, not to give it more wriggle room. Outside the immediate nuclear realm, Iran is acting like a regional power that has thrown off its chains. It recently tested a new liquid-fuel medium-range ballistic missile, despite UN Security Council resolutions. Arms trafficking to terror groups is gathering pace. It is preparing to bulk up its army with Russian T-90 tanks. In Syria it has been gaining battle experience; some five thousand Revolutionary Guards are on the ground, co-ordinating Iraqi Shia, Pakistanis and Afghans. It is difficult to see Iran ever becoming a comfortable partner. Diplomacy does not always prevent war; sometimes it merely postpones the first shot and hopes for the best. It is to Obama's credit that he grabbed an opportunity to break a political logjam and reduce the risk of an Israeli-Iranian conflagration. Yet the result was a flawed deal based on a poor understanding of the actual intentions of the Iranian regime. It might just have made the region more, not less, dangerous." http://t.uani.com/1VpCk3w



       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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