Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Eye on Iran: Japan May Not Load March Iran Oil as Insurance to Expire








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Reuters: "Japan will likely refrain from loading oil at Iranian ports in March because of the impending expiry at the end of next month of special shipping insurance cover provided by the government, industry and government officials said. The potential restriction from one of Tehran's biggest oil customers highlights Iran's difficulties in boosting exports after U.S. sanctions were lifted in January. The problem stems from confusion about whether U.S. companies can offer insurance coverage for tankers with Iranian crude. The U.S. removed the sanctions after confirming a deal on Iran's disputed nuclear programme, including prohibitions on non-American companies selling insurance to and trading with Iranian entities. But the Treasury Department left in place other sanctions limiting the amount of reinsurance U.S. companies can provide for Iranian ships, a crucial element in providing tanker cover. The insurance ban was the most effective way of limiting Iranian oil exports, which were more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2011, but fell to a little more than 1 million bpd after the sanctions were imposed in 2012. Japan has kept the oil trade with Iran going through a special government insurance programme that gives about $8 billion in coverage and the government plans to renew it with a parliamentary vote, a government source said. But, given the lack of a timetable on the vote, shippers are erring on the side of caution and will likely hold back from any loadings next month, the government source and industry sources, who requested anonymity, said. International insurers are trying to put together limited coverage to complement the lack of U.S. cover, but it is uncertain whether the Washington will approve the plans, officials at Japan's main insurer, the Japan P&I Club, said. European nations have resumed loading Iranian oil despite the international P&I club only providing coverage for about 85 percent of the roughly $8 billion per ship normal liability coverage, but Japanese shippers are still holding back, said the officials." http://t.uani.com/1WGfXa3

NYT: "A group of hard-line Iranian news media organizations says it has raised $600,000 to add to a bounty for the killing of the British novelist Salman Rushdie. Iran's former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, issued a fatwa, or religious edict, in 1989 calling for Mr. Rushdie to be killed because of his book 'The Satanic Verses,' which the ayatollah found to be blasphemous and insulting toward Muslims. Mr. Rushdie has since then been living largely out of sight and under the protection of bodyguards. The semiofficial Fars news agency, one of the organizations involved, reported that the new reward money was gathered during a trade fair called the Islamic Republic's Digital Media Exhibition. It quoted the secretary of the exhibition saying that the $600,000 had been announced last week to mark the anniversary of the 1989 fatwa... The decree had already put a considerable price on Mr. Rushdie's head: A religious organization called the 15 Khordad Foundation initially offered a $2.7 million reward to anyone carrying out the fatwa, then increased it to $3.3 million in 2012. The new money, bringing the total bounty to nearly $4 million, came from 40 news outlets listed by Fars, which said that it had contributed $30,000." http://t.uani.com/1WGow4H

Manila Times: "An alleged terrorist plot to hijack or bomb a passenger plane from the Saudi Arabian air fleet has reached an 'advanced stage' of implementation, according to a reliable airport source. The airport source on Saturday cited the threat of terrorist attack that would be carried out somewhere in Southeast Asia after Iran warned of 'divine revenge' against Saudi Arabia over Riyadh's recent execution of a religious leader, a prominent cleric. The source confirmed that the Saudi Arabian Embassy in the Philippines has informed the Department of Foreign Affairs that its government intelligence had received information that 'Iranian Revolutionary Guards' are allegedly preparing to mount the attack. The Manila Times has obtained a copy of that confidential communication written by a retired admiral in behalf of the Foreign Affairs secretary, dated January this year, indicating that the plan has reached the 'advanced stage.' The dispatch revealed that the 'implementing and planning team is said to consist of 10 persons and six of them are Yemeni nationals tasked to execute the plan, and some of them have already been identified.' ... The source said it is possible that the terrorist plot would be launched in Malaysia, Indonesia or the Philippines." http://t.uani.com/1Ukstxg

Congressional Action

Al-Monitor: "Congress this week will finally hear from UN patent agency whistleblowers about years-old computer shipments to Iran that have raised questions about the world body's compliance with international sanctions. The Feb. 24 hearing with three former officials of the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) caps a four-year battle against stonewalling bureaucrats at the Geneva-based agency. At the same time, the House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing opens another front in the congressional campaign to ensure that international pressure on Iran doesn't let up in the wake of last year's nuclear deal. 'With the UN wrapping up its own investigation,' Middle East panel Chairwoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., said in a statement, 'this hearing will provide an added layer of oversight and accountability, as members will hear from the WIPO officials previously blocked from testifying, learn what consequences we can expect from the UN investigation, and assess future action to safeguard against potential violations of US sanctions and export controls and other breaches of US national security policy by WIPO and other UN agencies.' The controversy dates back to April 2012, when Fox News first reported that the Geneva-based agency had shipped sophisticated US-made computers and other information technology systems to internationally sanctioned North Korea, without seeking permission from - or even informing - the UN Security Council. Three months later, Bloomberg reported that similar technology transfers had also been made to Iran. The shipments consist of laptops, servers, printers and firewall systems and are in line with the agency's mission to help developing countries build up intellectual-property archives and come into compliance with global standards that are crucial to advanced invention-dependent economies such as the United States. Still, the transfers of dual-use technology, which could conceivably be used to help develop missile technology or nuclear weapons, have raised alarm bells in Congress and the State Department." http://t.uani.com/1TD34Q7

Sanctions Relief

Bloomberg: "General Electric Co., the world's largest maker of jet engines, has also applied to do business in Iran, said Rick Kennedy, a spokesman for the company's aviation unit. The license would cover new-equipment sales as well as maintenance and repair work, where engine manufacturers make most of their money. GE's application was submitted in preparation for opportunities arising as the airframers open talks, Kennedy said. GE Aviation, through its CFM International joint venture with France's Safran SA, makes engines powering many aircraft including Boeing's 737 and models in Airbus's A320 family." http://t.uani.com/1OswBUH

Reuters: "Azeri state oil firm Socar's trading division is looking to reactivate deals with Iran, as well as expanding into new markets ranging from North American crude to natural gas in Europe, its chief executive told Reuters. Neighbours Azerbaijan and Iran have been strengthening ties since the removal of sanctions against Tehran in January and on Tuesday Iran's national oil company NIOC and Socar signed a memorandum of understanding as part of a visit by Azeri President Ilham Aliyev to the Islamic Republic. 'We have been actively trading with NIOC in the Caspian Sea region, until international sanctions forced us to discontinue such deliveries. There is a great potential to explore,' Arzu Azimov, the chief executive of Socar Trading, said. Other possibilities include trading refined products with Iran in the Gulf, where Socar has storage facilities in the United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah. One option was to supply Iran with gasoline and to buy naphtha and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), Azimov said." http://t.uani.com/1QvHMx4

Reuters: "Iran is interested in buying 50 airliners from Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA, a presidential aide in Brazil with knowledge of the negotiations said on Monday, as the end of international sanctions against the Middle East country triggers a flurry of trade deals. Negotiations for the jets, along with a potential package of taxis, buses and trucks made by Brazil's ailing auto industry, began in October when Brazilian Trade Minister Armando Monteiro led a delegation to Tehran. Monteiro told Reuters last month that Brazil will accept payment from Iran in euros and other currencies to sidestep lingering sanctions forbidding Iran from using the U.S. financial system... Embraer confirmed to Reuters that it had begun talks with Iranian airlines. 'The market has a lot of potential, as we have said, due to the need to reform the old fleet of aircraft and satisfy growth,' the company said in a statement." http://t.uani.com/20SPY0c

Terrorism

Free Beacon: "Israeli Air Force navigator Ron Arad, who disappeared after his Phantom went down over Lebanon in 1986, was held in Iran for several years before dying of illness, according to a report in the Tel Aviv daily Yediot Achronot. The paper's defense affairs writer, Ronen Begman, citing Israeli intelligence sources, said that Arad was apparently transferred by Hezbollah to Iran in 1990 where he was held in isolation for four years. After Israeli commandos kidnapped the Hezbollah official who had held Arad captive, the Iranians allegedly transferred him back to Lebanon for fear that the official might incriminate them. His whereabouts thereafter are not known. Arad is believed to have died somewhere between 1995 and 1997, from an illness for which he was not treated. It is not known where he was buried. Officially, Israel regards Arad as missing since there is no clear proof that he died." http://t.uani.com/1UkrEEF

Human Rights

Reuters: "An Iranian film-maker convicted of insulting the Islamic Republic has lost his appeal and now faces jail and lashing, a source said on Monday, as an apparent crackdown on artists and writers intensified ahead of elections this week. Keywan Karimi, 30, was found guilty last year of 'insulting the sacred and spreading propaganda' in a documentary about political graffiti in Tehran called 'Writing On The City'. An appeals court this week confirmed Karimi's six-year sentence, suspending five of them, and condemned him to 223 lashes and a fine for 'shaking hands with women and drinking alcoholic drinks,' a source close to the issue said... Karimi is one of dozens of artists, journalists and business people, including Iranians holding joint U.S. or British citizenship, arrested in the run-up to Friday's election of parliamentarians and of the clerics who will choose the next supreme leader... The same source, who asked not to be identified, said verdicts has been issued this week to at least 12 film-makers, photographers and writers. He said they were under pressure not to talk to the media and make this public." http://t.uani.com/1OspDyV

ICHRI: "Keyvan Karimi, an Iranian Kurdish documentary filmmaker, has been sentenced to 223 lashes and one year in prison for 'insulting the sacred.' Karimi's initial six-year prison sentence by Judge Mohammad Moghisseh in October 2015 has been reduced by an Appeals Court to 12 months in prison and a five-year suspended prison term. Karimi, 30, was also fined 20 million Iranian rials or approximately $700. A source close to Karimi told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that Karimi will be forced to endure 223 lashes because the Appeals Court upheld the punishment for the charge of 'having illegitimate relations by kissing the face and shaking hands' with a woman who is not a relative. The United Nations has declared lashing a cruel and inhuman punishment tantamount to torture. Karimi had been accused of denigrating religious values in his film, entitled Neveshtan Rooy-e Shahr (Writing on the City), about graffiti in Tehran. Some of the scenes in the film relate to the protests that followed the disputed 2009 presidential election in Iran... Karimi's Kurdish and Sunni background may have contributed to his harsh sentence. Iran's Kurdish ethnic minority and Sunni Muslim religious minority are subjected to significant discrimination and persecution." http://t.uani.com/1Rkvgnw

Journalism Is Not a Crime: "Iranian-British journalist Bahman Daroshafaei was released on bail today, February 23. Daroshafaei, 34, is of dual Iranian-British nationality and a former employee of the BBC's Persian service. He was arrested in Tehran on February 3, 2016 and transferred to Tehran's notorious Evin Prison. Arresting officers did not present a warrant when they arrived at Daroshafaei's home early on February 3, and his family has not been able to find out about who arrested him, why he was been arrested, or what charges he might be facing. After living in the United Kingdom for several years, Daroshafaei returned to Iran in September 2014 to be near his family. But when he arrived at the airport, authorities seized his passport. Since his arrival Intelligence Ministry officials have reportedly interrogated Daroshafaei more than 40 times about his activities as a journalist. The news of his release on bail was published today by FreeBahman, a Twitter profile run by some of Daroshafaei's friends." http://t.uani.com/1T4hIjC

IranWire: "In Iran, women continue to face harsh discrimination, discrimination that is embedded within Iranian society - but also enshrined in Iranian law.  Although in many ways, Iranian women are empowered, with female students outnumbering men in a number of fields, and women playing an active role in social sciences and the arts, Iran's legal system continues to hold them back and repress them. As the country gets ready to go to the polls on Friday, IranWire looks at the laws that have a direct impact on the lives of women." http://t.uani.com/1RYRbCL

IranWire: "Authorities are planning to block Iranians' access to the popular messaging app Telegram prior to the parliamentary elections on Friday, reported the conservative Iranian news website Alef today, February 22. The prominent news website is owned and supervised by Ahmad Tavakkoli, a conservative member of Iran's parliament who formerly served as minister of labor and social affairs and president of the parliamentary research center. Alef reported that according to an unnamed Iranian official, authorities are planning to block or slow down Telegram in Iran on Thursday February 25 - one day before election day - until the elections are over. The anonymous source said the authorities would block Telegram to prevent candidates from using the app for campaign purposes. Under Iranian law, candidates are banned from campaigning the final 24 hours before election day. 'The government won't be able to monitor and control the candidates' campaigns on social media in the final days before the elections. Therefore it will block the app,' reported Alef. So far, Telegram is officially open to all Iranians, but it has been under huge pressure from conservative factions in the country. The encrypted messaging and content sharing application has become popular among Iranians, who especially use it for sharing news and opinion. The app, which is believed to be used by one in four Iranians, is set to play a major role during the elections." http://t.uani.com/1QYi3Os

RFE/RL: "A disturbing video of a hunter in northern Iran brutally beating his dog has triggered a rare public protest in the capital, where dozens gathered to call for an end to animal cruelty. Pictures and videos of the protest on February 22 posted on social media showed participants calling for the animal rights to be protected, and for legal measures to be taken to ensure the safety of animals. The protest, held in front of the state environmental-protection organization, was held several days after the emergence online of the graphic video. The clip, which was posted some time ago, according to officials, shows a man repeatedly kicking and throwing a dog during an apparent hunting trip, as onlookers laugh. The dog, seeking to escape the beating, jumps into the bed of a large truck. The man follows the dog, and can be seen swinging a shovel downward above his head at full strength, as the dog cries out in pain... In 2015, animals-rights activists protested in several cities after footage emerged showing the killing of stray dogs by lethal injection... Pet ownership, particularly of dogs, is reportedly on the rise in Iran despite criticism and disapproval by the country's hard-liners, who have denounced dog ownership as a 'blind imitation of decadent Western culture' and called for action against dog owners." http://t.uani.com/1Q8Snii

Haaretz: "A gay Iranian poet who fled his homeland after harassment and arrest has requested asylum in Israel, according to a report in the Al Bawaba news website. Homosexuality is illegal in the Islamic Republic of Iran, with those found guilty of the 'crime' facing harsh punishment, including the death penalty. Payam Feili arrived in Israel at the end of 2015 from Turkey, where he was living in exile. He came to see his latest novella, 'I Will Grow, I Will Bear Fruit... Figs,' staged as a play in Hebrew in a Tel Aviv theater. But now, with his three-month visa running out, he has applied for Israeli asylum. Permanent residency is not normally granted to those who enter the country on a tourist visa, but Al Bawaba says that Israeli authorities are likely to grant his request, in light of the risk to his life if he has to return to Iran." http://t.uani.com/21cxfSQ

Domestic Politics

Tasnim (Iran): "Commander of Iran's Basij (volunteer) Force Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi condemned foreign interference in the process of election in Iran, calling on the nation to thwart a British plot by acting prudently in the upcoming votes, slated for Friday. Addressing a conference in Tehran on Monday, General Naqdi took a swipe at Britain for instigating disturbance in the process of elections, stressing that foreigners have no right to tell Iranians which electoral list suits them best. 'We must be vigilant and act against Britain's will,' he stressed. The outright response follows comments by Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Brigadier General Massoud Jazayeri, who on Monday complained about the Iranian diplomatic body's muted response to the recent attempts by British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) to influence the outcome of the upcoming elections in Iran." http://t.uani.com/1OsvX9M

Tasnim (Iran): "Iranian Judiciary Chief Ayatollah Sadeq Amoli Larijani expressed the confidence that the country's people would thwart a plot hatched by the US and Britain to undermine the upcoming polls due to be held Friday. Addressing a gathering of Iranian veterans and clerics in the northern province of Mazandaran on Monday night, Ayatollah Amoli Larijani cautioned about recent attempts made by the US and Britain to influence the outcome of the upcoming elections in Iran and said unfortunately, the enemies of the Islamic Establishment have always tried to harm the Islamic Revolution over the past 37 years since its victory in February 1979. However, he added, 'Our people are vigilant, alive and wise and are able to recognize foreigners' attempts to skew (the polls).' The judiciary chief further said that the Iranian people will never allow the US and Britain to decide for them in the elections. The people will deal a strong blow to the enemies with their high turnout, Amoli Larijani went on to say." http://t.uani.com/24nkwvH

Foreign Affairs

Press TV (Iran): "Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi says he will visit Tehran in April after Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's trip to Rome last month. Renzi made the announcement at a new conference in Rome on Monday. Iran and Italy signed deals worth up to 17 billion euros ($18.42 billion) during Rouhani's 48-hour stay in Italy. The premier said then that business agreements Italy signed with Iran were 'just the beginning' for the two countries." http://t.uani.com/1QeajLV

Press TV (Iran): "South African President Jacob Zuma will pay a two-day official visit to Iran to hold talks with Iranian authorities, the African country's presidency says. Zuma will visit Iran on February 28-29 to 'strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries,' the presidency said on Monday. On Monday, the Iranian Foreign Ministry also said that Zuma is expected in Tehran next week. In November 2015, South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa led a high-level government and trade delegation in a three-day visit to Iran to discuss opportunities for cooperation in the energy sector. Ramaphosa signed three memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with Iran's First Vice President Es'haq Jahangiri. The two countries based on the documents agreed to create a center to exchange information to fight money laundering, create joint markets and also expand technical and economic cooperation." http://t.uani.com/1L8WzBQ

Opinion & Analysis

Jonathan Ruhe & Blake Fleisher in WSJ: "Iran's brazen tests of ballistic missiles in recent months highlight a glaring failure of its nuclear agreement with Western powers, agreed to only months ago. But the focus on Tehran's ballistic missiles overlooks an important point: Iran already possesses cruise missiles capable of delivering a nuclear warhead. Neither the nuclear agreement, nor the U.N. Security Council resolution endorsing it, mention cruise missiles despite the threat they pose. Tehran has at least a dozen nuclear-capable Russian-made Kh-55 cruise missiles, procured illegally from Ukraine around 2001. They have a range of 1,500 miles, allowing Tehran to place a warhead anywhere from Cairo to New Delhi. The regime has also copied that design to create its own Soumar missile, though it isn't clear how many have been manufactured. Ballistic missiles and cruise missiles can carry nuclear warheads, but in some ways the latter would be more difficult to counter. Cruise missiles have short launch times-on the order of minutes, compared with an hour or longer for Iran's ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles fly steep trajectories and generally follow predetermined paths, but cruise missiles have sophisticated guidance systems. That allows them to fly close to the ground and around obstacles, making them more difficult for radar to track. To make matters worse, the nuclear deal will allow Tehran to expand its arsenal of cruise missiles. More than $120 billion in Iranian funds was unfrozen as sanctions were lifted. U.N. Resolution 2231, which endorsed the deal, removed the categorical bans that prevented Iran from buying conventional arms and military technology that it could potentially use to deliver nuclear weapons. Russia and China, which sold Iran much of its existing military equipment, have taken note. Their demonstrated eagerness to rebuild ties with Tehran's defense industry suggests that Iran will have little trouble purchasing turbofan engines and guidance systems to improve its cruise missiles' range and accuracy, and possibly new delivery platforms like bombers and upgraded strike fighters. Chinese-made antiship missiles are elemental to Iran's strategy for contesting U.S. predominance in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Iran fired several against U.S.-flagged oil tankers during the closing stages of the Iran-Iraq War, provided C-802 Saccades antiship missiles to Hezbollah, and test-fired two new antiship cruise missiles in recent naval maneuvers. The U.S. should not feel powerless to play its bad hand well. Under Resolution 2231, the U.S., Britain and France can block Russia and China from transferring cruise missiles, parts and technology to Iran. Such transfers require approval from the Security Council, and the U.S. must uphold its pledge to veto attempts to give or sell Iran missile technology. The resolution also bans Iranian arms shipments abroad. Given Tehran's history of transferring cruise missiles to Hezbollah and (likely) Hamas, it is imperative that the U.S. and its partners continue to interdict clandestine Iranian arms exports. All permanent members of the Security Council, with the exception of China, are also party to the Missile Technology Control Regime, which was designed specifically to help prevent the proliferation of potential nuclear delivery systems like cruise missiles. This provides a ready-made forum for coordinating more stringent controls on arms exports to Iran. The U.S. should make clear that it will use existing sanctions laws to penalize violators of the MTCR. Because these steps comply with the Iranian deal, the White House should not hesitate to take them. To prevent Iran from acquiring new cruise missiles or improving its own designs, the U.S. must move with the same sense of urgency as when it pursued the agreement in the first place." http://t.uani.com/24nlwjt

Ray Takeyh in CFR: "Iranians will go to the polls on February 26 to elect members of the 290-seat parliament and the 88-seat Assembly of Experts. A parliament that will continue to be dominated by hard-liners is thought to be an obstacle to President Hassan Rouhani's reforms. Elections to the Assembly of Expert will be closely watched because the body will likely select a successor to the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. The seventy-six-year-old Khamenei is persistently rumored to be in poor health. Yet a closer look at both institutions reveals that neither election will be as meaningful as they are often portrayed in the international press. In the aftermath of elections, the parliament is unlikely to act with much decisiveness and the Assembly of Experts probably will not in fact choose the next leader, but rather, rubber stamp a selection made by unelected others. The dichotomy often made by foreign observers of an Iranian polity divided between hard-liners and reformers is an oversimplification. Rouhani has never been part of the reform faction as the term is properly understood in its Iranian context. The reform movement evolved in the early 1990s by calling for accountability and pluralism. The descendants of that movement were the participants in the Green Revolution of 2009, which was brutally repressed with Rouhani's blessing (he served in the Supreme National Security Council at the time). Since the purges of 2009, Iranian politics have been reduced to a coalition of hard-liners and centrists who agree far more than they disagree. On crucial foreign policy issues, such as projection of power in the Middle East and aiding the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, there is a rough consensus across the political spectrum. As such, elections are unlikely to usher in a new direction in Iran's international relations. The parliament has proven a boisterous but largely inconsequential debating chamber. In the complex Iranian system, the parliament's laws can be overwritten by various institutions, such as the unelected Guardian Council, whose job is to vet legislation to make sure it conforms to religious standards. This function has regularly been abused by the Guardian Council, which has vetoed bills that have little to do with religious matters. It routinely sends budgets back to the parliament for greater deliberation even though it is unclear how they violate Islamic law. Rouhani has faced little opposition from the parliament due to his close collaboration with the powerful speaker, Ali Larijani. Although a conservative himself, Larijani is very much a man of the system who is interested in the government functioning smoothly. The Rouhani-Larijani partnership has ensured that the firebrands in the parliament do not interfere with the executive branch's agenda. In the run up to the current parliamentary elections, the Guardian Council has, predictably, disqualified hundreds of reformist candidates. In addition to overseeing legislation, the council is responsible for vetting candidates for political office to ensure their loyalty to the Islamic Republic. Even in the context of Iran's circumscribed elections, the council's wholesale rejection of a slew of candidates appears excessive and arbitrary. Although some of the candidates are likely to be reinstated on appeal, the council has ensured that there will be a conservative majority in the next parliament. The council is signaling to the nation that the Islamic Republic will allow only its most ardent supporters to assume any office... As Iran enters its first election cycle since the advent of the nuclear deal, what is striking is how little either the Assembly of Experts or the parliament will affect national affairs. A conservative parliament will prove cantankerous, but, under the steady hand of Larijani, a largely compliant body. And the Assembly of Experts' mostly octogenarian clerics will meet occasionally to play a mostly ceremonial role. The Islamic Republic's most crucial political maneuvers will continue to be managed by a cast of few-including Khamenei, Larijani, and Rouhani-as opposed to the elected institutions of government." http://t.uani.com/1TwVIwd
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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