In this mailing: Khaled Abu Toameh: Palestinians: The Power Struggle between Young Guard and Old Guard Shmuel Bar: Middle East Strategic Outlook - July 2016 Palestinians: The Power Struggle between Young Guard and Old Guard by Khaled Abu Toameh  •  July 18, 2016 at 5:00 am Who is supplying Mohamed Dahlan with money? The United Arab Emirates (UAE). It is their cash that has enabled Palestinians in refugee camps in the West Bank and Gaza Strip to purchase weapons and buy loyalty for Dahlan in preparation for the post-Abbas era -- especially disgruntled young Fatah activists in the West Bank who feel that Abbas and the PA leadership have turned their backs on them. This power struggle will not end with the departure of Mahmoud Abbas. The next Palestinian president will surely be one of Abbas's current loyalists. This in itself will drive Dahlan and his ilk to continue railing against the old guard. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (left) and Mohamed Dahlan (right), a former Fatah security commander, have, for the past five years, been at each other's throats. The two were once close allies and had worked together to undermine the former PA president, Yasser Arafat. (Image sources: U.S. State Dept., M. Dahlan Office) Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas faces a real threat; its name is Mohamed Dahlan. Abbas has become obsessed with Dahlan, according to insiders. The PA president, they report, spends hours each day discussing ways to deal with the man and his supporters. And, it is rumored, Abbas's nights are not much better. Backed by at least three Arab countries, Dahlan, a former Palestinian security commander from the Gaza Strip, seems to have unofficially joined the battle for succession in the PA. The 54-year-old Dahlan, young enough to be Abbas's son, continues to deny any ambition to succeed Mahmoud Abbas as president of the PA. Yet Dahlan's continued efforts to establish bases of power in both the West Bank and Gaza Strip belie his claims. Continue Reading Article Middle East Strategic Outlook - July 2016 by Shmuel Bar  •  July 18, 2016 at 4:00 am It may be expected that in the coming months, the Syrian efforts to implement "ethnic cleansing" of Sunnis in the north will continue and even escalate, resulting in a growing stream of refugees into Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. This will continue to destabilize these countries and to pose a challenge to a weakened Europe. The overt American support for the Iranian involvement in Iraq will also serve to rally Sunnis to an anti-American position, while actually exacerbating the main problem -- the sectarian divide. Therefore, the American involvement in the Fallujah campaign will not buy it Sunni gratitude. Iran is entering a new stage of war in Syria which evokes the situation that the Soviet Union found itself in in Afghanistan in 1985. Like the Soviet Union in that stage of the Afghan war, Iran has achieved no decisive victory, but has incurred significant domestic opposition to the war and has no additional resources that could tip the scales. The explanation put forward by the American administration that the attacks reflect the Islamic State's "despair" in the face of its defeats in Syria and Iraq over the last months is specious. International terrorism "to strike fear in the hearts of Allah's enemies" has been a hallmark of the Islamic State since its beginning and it does not need the excuse of military defeat in Syria and Iraq to continue to carry out such attacks. Iraqi army units and Shiite militias during the assault on Fallujah, June 2016. Saudi Arabia Approval of the National Transformation Plan The Saudi Cabinet approved (June 6) the National Transformation Program (NTP), part of Saudi Vision 2030, led by Deputy Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. The NTP is supposed to be the basis for laying out targets to be met by government ministries and departments. The NTP was well received not only be the Saudi mainstream media (to be expected) but by the Saudi social media that represents to a great degree the public opinion of the younger Saudi generation. It may be expected that Prince Mohammad bin Salman will continue to take steps in the framework of his initiative that will, at least, preserve the sense of momentum and the public support he is enjoying. Saudi-US Relations Continue Reading Article

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