Monday, September 26, 2016

Eye on Iran: A Year After The Nuclear Deal, Iranian Optimism Turns Sour


   EYE ON IRAN
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A year ago, Iran seemed on the verge of a new relationship with the United States and the world. In his address to the United Nations last fall, President Hassan Rouhani said the nuclear deal just signed, lifting sanctions and setting limits on Iran's nuclear program, was a foundation for change. "We were not solely seeking a nuclear deal," he said. "We want to suggest a new and constructive way to re-create the international order." Flash forward a year, and Rouhani's optimism has been replaced by disappointment and finger-pointing. In his U.N. speech and a wide-ranging news conference this week, Rouhani bitterly accused the United States of failing to live up to its obligations under the nuclear deal. In the eight months since the deal was implemented, he said, Washington had delayed licenses for business transactions and blocked Iran's access to banks. "The lack of compliance ... on the part of the United States in the past several months represents a flawed approach that should be rectified forthwith," he said Thursday.

Senior Republican U.S. House of Representatives lawmakers made clear on Friday they will keep campaigning against Boeing and Airbus jetliner sales to Iran, despite the Treasury Department's announcement that it had begun issuing licenses for the exports. Republican Representatives Pete Roskam and Jeb Hensarling wrote to Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, which oversees sanctions, demanding more answers about any security implications of the delivery of aircraft to Iran. "There is little evidence indicating that Iran Air has indeed stopped transporting weapons, troops, and cash to terrorist groups and rogue regimes," the congressmen wrote in a letter, dated Thursday, seen by Reuters. Both congressmen hold influential financial positions in the House. Hensarling is chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Roskam is chairman of the tax-writing Ways & Means Committee's Oversight subcommittee. Airbus and Boeing said on Wednesday they had received U.S. Treasury approval to begin exporting over 200 jets to Iran, under a deal struck in January.

Iran's supreme leader has told former hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to stand again in next year's elections, state media reported on Monday, effectively eliminating a major challenger to pragmatist incumbent Hassan Rouhani. Ahmadinejad had not announced any plans to run in the vote scheduled for May, but has made several speeches in recent months, prompting speculation of a political comeback. Commentators had suggested the firebrand populist, who frequently enraged the West with his rhetoric during his eight years in office, would have given Iran's conservatives their best chance of regaining power. But the instruction by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reported by state news agency IRNA, effectively destroys his chances of getting the wider backing he would need to run a successful campaign. "He (Ahmadinejad) came to me and I told him not to stand as I think it is not in his interest and that of the country," Khamenei was quoted as saying. "It will create bipolar opposites and divisions in the country which I believe is harmful," Khamenei added.

UANI IN THE NEWS

 "So far the nuclear deal has been transactional rather than transformational," says Gary Samore, who served for four years as President Obama's coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction. Both the US and Iran have "major incentives" to keep the deal in force and to avoid its unraveling, he says. But that doesn't mean it will lead to a transformation - either in bilateral relations, or in Iranian behavior. "For Obama, [the deal] allows the US to focus on defeating the Islamic State on the battlefield" rather than worrying about a progressing Iranian nuclear program, says Dr. Samore, who spoke in New York this week at a United Against Nuclear Iran conference. A deal collapse would "blow up" a "tacit US-Iran agreement" around the coming battle to retake Mosul from the Islamic State, he says... The longer-term prospects of both the nuclear deal and US-Iran relations are less certain, Samore says. "I don't have much confidence the deal is going to remain in force for 15 years," he says.

NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM

The head of Iran's atomic energy agency warned Monday that his country's landmark nuclear deal with five world powers could be jeopardized by alleged foot-dragging on a pledge of sanctions relief in exchange for Tehran's commitment to curb key atomic activities. Ali Akbar Salehi said that "comprehensive and expeditious removal of all sanctions" outlined in the agreement "have yet to be met," even though his country is honoring all its obligations under the pact. Salehi did not blame particular countries in comments to the International Atomic Energy Agency's general conference. But other Iranian officials have faulted the United States for perceived delays in lifting financial sanctions. Delivering a warning that the agreement could be jeopardized over the sanctions issue, Salehi said the deal's "durability" depended on the other side's "reciprocal and full implementation."

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS

The $12 million compound, once a playground for the Iranian ambassador and guests like Elizabeth Taylor, Andy Warhol and Richard M. Nixon, now sits empty on Washington's Embassy Row. The five-story Upper East Side townhouse that served as a consulate was long ago repurposed as the headquarters of a dealer of old master paintings. And the seven-bedroom Bethesda, Md., ranch house for Iranian diplomats is now the home of a family of five. The properties, and seven others across the United States assessed altogether at more than $50 million, still belong to the Islamic Republic of Iran. But for nearly 40 years, the task of maintaining and putting the properties out for rent has fallen to an unlikely management company - the State Department.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

The Federal Government has announced it will reopen a trade office in Iran ahead of Trade Minister Steve Ciobo's visit to Tehran this week. A business delegation led by Mr Ciobo is expected to discuss rebuilding trade ties between Australia and Iran after a very long hiatus. Mr Ciobo said Iran offered significant economic opportunities for Australia. "There are significant trade opportunities as Iran re-engages with the world following the easing of sanctions," he told ABC News breakfast.

MILITARY MATTERS

An Italian navy ship docked in the southern Iranian port of Bandar Abbas on Saturday in the first official visit by a Western naval vessel to the country in several years. The Italian navy said the frigate Euro -- named for a wind that blows across the Mediterranean from North Africa -- was part of an EU anti-piracy mission and would remain docked in Iran for three days before returning to Italy. The Italian navy said the visit comes as part of the resumption of "historic and excellent relations" between the two navies. It posted a picture on its Twitter account showing an Iranian girl handing flowers to an Italian officer in Bandar Abbas. The last time an Italian naval vessel visited Iran was the frigate Bersagliere in April 2001. The frigate Euro last visited in 1999.

REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION

Yemen President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi vowed at the United Nations on Friday to "extract Yemen from the claws of Iran" as he accused Tehran of impeding peace by intervening in the country... "We shall extract Yemen from the claws of Iran, we shall raise the Yemeni flag over every foot of our precious Yemeni soil and we will lay the foundation for a just federal state," Hadi said in a speech at the annual United Nations gathering of world leaders... "We tell the whole world in very clear terms that extremism and sectarian terrorism sponsored by Iran in the region has created and will create a terrorism counter to that," Hadi said.

Yemen plans to complain to the U.N. Security Council over what it says are Iran's weapon transfers to Houthi allies fighting the internationally recognized Yemeni government, the foreign minister said on Saturday. In an interview with Reuters, Abdel-Malek al-Mekhlafi also said he hoped a 72-hour humanitarian ceasefire would take effect "early next week." ... "There are new weapons coming from Iran," Mekhlafi said in New York where he was attending the annual U.N. gathering of world leaders. "It is impossible to hide that weapons-smuggling is still taking place from Iran. Some of these weapons have been found on the Saudi-Yemeni border and they are Iranian weapons," he said. Mekhlafi said his government was in the process of filing a complaint to the Security Council, with evidence including documents and pictures.

Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan pointed to Iran's "expansionist regional policies, flagrant violations of the principles of sovereignty and constant interference in the internal affairs of its neighboring countries." He told the UN General Assembly's annual ministerial meeting on Saturday that regional countries hoped last year's nuclear deal between Iran and six major powers would change Tehran's "hostile approach," but those hopes were "quickly thwarted." "Iran wasted no time in continuing its efforts to undermine the security of the region, through aggressive rhetoric, blatant interference, producing and arming militias, (and) developing its ballistic missile program," Al Nahyan said. Iran has been backing Syrian President Bashar Assad and Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the UAE minister said its interference in Iraq's internal affairs "has exacerbated ... division among its people."

SYRIA CONFLICT

French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said on Sunday Russia and Iran would become accomplices in war crimes if they continued to prolong the war in Syria. Describing Russia and Iran as supporters of Syrian President Bashar Assad, Ayrault called on them "to take their responsibility by stopping this strategy that leads to a dead-end." "Otherwise, Russia and Iran will become accomplices of the war crimes committed in Aleppo," the minister said in a written statement with reference to the bombings that struck the Syrian city and killed scores of people.

DOMESTIC POLITICS

The main Kurdish insurgent group in Iran will keep up its guerrilla campaign against security forces "to protect and defend" Kurds living there, its deputy leader said, calling the fight necessary after the Islamic Republic's nuclear deal with world powers. A string of recent attacks by the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan mark the end of a 20-year cease-fire between its fighters and Iran, though Kurdish separatists have agitated for freedom for decades in the country's northwest... The PDKI's deputy secretary-general Hassan Sharafi said Iran's "repression" of Kurds forced it to respond. "We see that they are being arrested, tortured, interrogated and jailed," he told The Associated Press in an interview Wednesday in Koya, an Iraqi city near the Iranian border. "In order to protect and defend these people, we have decided to have a presence in the area instead of launching a regular war."

Iranian banks have begun issuing credit cards for the first time in decades, local media reported on Monday. The report by several newspapers, including the daily Donya-e-Eqtesad or World of Economy in Farsi, said the cards will be for domestic use only and do not involve any sort of partnership with a major international credit card company. The cards are usable for purchasing products and services from Iranian online shops as well. The move is aimed at helping to boost Iran's sanctions-damaged economy. The credit limits and fee percentages will be fixed by Iran's Central Bank, although individual banks will be responsible for determining if a customer qualifies to receive a card.

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Seven years ago, I heard the name of a prominent Iranian diplomat, Mohammad Javad Zarif, at least 118 times. That was how many days I spent imprisoned in Iran for doing my job as a journalist - and how many days I was beaten by an intelligence officer in the hard-line Revolutionary Guards. He demanded that I falsely confess to being a C.I.A. agent and invent false stories that Mr. Zarif had connections to Western intelligence agencies. Rather than cooperate, I somehow withstood the daily torture. This month Mr. Zarif, now Iran's foreign minister, has been in New York for the annual United Nations General Assembly meeting, alongside other Iranian diplomats and President Hassan Rouhani. Together, they have tried to give Iran's government a humane face as champions of Middle East stability, while denying its human rights abuses. Theirs is a thankless task: They must know they are lying. Iranian diplomats are caught between their desire to join the modern world and the reality of the government they represent. They also know their own rights are at risk if they don't follow the wishes of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader.

Iran caught a break in its efforts to court global banks in June, when an international task force that sets standards against money laundering and terrorist financing suspended for one year its call for countries to take "proactive countermeasures" to protect their financial systems from illicit Iranian schemes. In return, Tehran pledged to improve controls to help counter the financing of terrorism and other illicit financial conduct rampant within the Iranian financial system. The chances of Iran implementing the reforms by next June are small, a point likely to surface this week as Iranian officials continue to meet with other diplomats on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. The Financial Action Task Force has included Iran on its blacklist since the list's inception in 2008. By next June, Iran is expected to show progress on an "action plan" to end illicit financial conduct, including financing terror groups such as Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Shia militias, and Iran's own Qods Force. Otherwise, countermeasures are to be re-imposed. Iran wants to persuade foreign banks to serve as channels for much-needed investment and trade. But there may be little progress to show.

Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, has persuaded most Western elites that he is a moderate worthy of deference. Big-shot journalists respectfully interview him. Former senior U.S. officials dine with him. European foreign ministries accommodate his pious sensibilities. President Barack Obama and his top advisers are no exception. They too go out of their way not to offend Rouhani, particularly since he agreed to the nuclear deal in 2015. Last week at the U.N. General Assembly, Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry did not call out Iran by name, as they did with Russia, for supporting the slaughter in Syria. And even though Iran's president has declined Obama's requests for a face-to-face meeting, the U.S. president had kind words for Iran in his big speech at the U.N. on Tuesday. Two people who are not taken in by Rouhani's charms are Zaher Sahloul and Yahya Basha. They are Syrian-American medical doctors who have devoted themselves to pleading with diplomats and world leaders to stop the killing in the place of their birth. Sahloul traveled to Aleppo in June and July to treat some victims of the Syrian war. On Tuesday last week, Sahloul and Basha were invited to a meeting in New York with Rouhani for U.S. Muslim leaders. It was the second meeting with Rouhani for the two doctors, and they decided to press Iran's president on his country's support for the man tormenting their fellow Syrians.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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