Thursday, January 12, 2017

Eye on Iran: Secretary of State Nominee Rex Tillerson Calls for 'Full Review' of Iran Nuclear Deal, Not Ripping It Up


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If he is confirmed as secretary of State, Rex Tillerson said he would plan a "full review" of the international accord that blocks Iran's ability to build a nuclear bomb. But appearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Tillerson did not promise to rip up the deal, as President-elect Donald Trump sometimes has said he would do. Tillerson said he would increase monitoring and verification systems to ensure Iran does not violate the agreement, which eased international sanctions against the country in exchange for destroying most of its nuclear fuel production facilities. "We need ... to examine our ability to clarify whether Iran is complying," Tillerson told the committee. "That means no nuclear enrichment in Iran, no storing of nuclear materials in Iran," he said.

The Iran nuclear deal was written with several "sunset" provisions setting expiration dates, some of them 15 years into the future, when restrictions on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program would lift. Then Donald Trump was elected president, and a sunset on the deal itself became possible. During the campaign, Trump regularly denigrated the Iran agreement. He vowed, at turns, to walk away from the 2015 accord, or renegotiate it, or enforce it so rigorously that it might collapse on its own. Trump is expected to take a more confrontational approach with Iran, showing no tolerance for even small breaches of what was agreed upon. The strategy seems designed to increase pressure on Iran, stopping what critics consider backsliding or cheating, but also to compel it to moderate its actions elsewhere in the region. "I was skeptical that the deal would survive, even if Clinton were elected, but the chances of it reaching its expiration date under Trump are very slim," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst with the Carnegie Endowment. "I could see a scenario where Iran continues to do provocative things. Both Trump and Congress respond with new sanctions. And Iran says, 'You just abrogated your end of the deal, therefore we're going to put our foot on the gas again and reconstitute our nuclear program.' But the likelihood that either side gratuitously walks away from the deal is very low. Neither side wants to be blamed for ripping it up."

In November 2012, shortly before the White House ended his tenure commanding U.S. forces in the Middle East, Marine Gen. James Mattis delivered an urgent message to his boss: An Iranian fighter jet had fired errantly on a U.S. drone flying over the Persian Gulf. In considering how the U.S. should respond, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta took into account a central feature of Mattis' reputation - his nerve. "I could sense that Mattis did not want to back down," Panetta recounted in his memoir, "Worthy Fights." "And that the White House was wary of his resolve. As I already knew, the White House didn't fully trust Mattis, regarding him as too eager for a military confrontation with Iran." That crisis faded. But Mattis now stands on the brink of becoming Pentagon chief for a president-elect, Donald Trump, who has pledged to toughen U.S. policy toward Iran. That could have broad implications as the incoming Trump administration weighs trying to modify the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and reconfigure the American posture in the Middle East after complaints from U.S. allies that President Barack Obama yielded too much ground to Tehran.

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

A diplomat denied reports that a clean-up plan at the Natanz facility will bring Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium below a cap mentioned in a nuclear agreement with world powers, saying residue from the process will be exempted from the 300-kg limit on Iran's enriched uranium. In comments on Tuesday, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi rejected a report by The Wall Street Journal that Iran has agreed after discussions with the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) to push its stockpile of enriched uranium far below the 300-kilogram cap fixed in a 2015 nuclear agreement... However, Araqchi made it clear on Tuesday that the enriched material flushed out of the pipes after the clean-up plan will be exempted from the 300-kg limit on the enriched uranium stockpile, stressing that as a result, Iran will be able to enrich more material.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

An Airbus passenger plane landed in Tehran on Thursday, the first of 200 Western-built aircraft ordered by IranAir following the lifting of sanctions on Iran last year. "This is a historic moment for Iran, signalling the end of the sanctions era for the country ...This is a prelude to the delivery of other aircraft and the renovation of Iran's ageing air fleet," state TV said. Analysts say IranAir flies one of the world's oldest fleets and has had to rely on smuggled or improvised parts. Iran, which has not directly purchased a Western-built plane in nearly 40 years, has ordered 100 from Airbus, 80 from Boeing and 20 from turboprop maker ATR... IranAir hopes to receive "at least two more from Airbus" by the end of March and a total of six A320 aircraft in calendar year 2017, Parvaresh said.

Maersk Line has expanded its footprint in Iran by adding a second port of call less than three months after it resumed services to the country following the lifting of sanctions imposed on Tehran because of its nuclear program. The Danish carrier, which suspended services in 2012, has added the port of Bushehr to its Iran coverage, which was relaunched with calls to Bandar Abbas in October. Maersk, which also has an office in Tehran, the Iranian capital, said it selected the port because it is the largest gateway for transportation of goods in the province of Bushehr, with an annual throughput of seven million tons. The port of Bushehr can provide all containerized cargo services and, most significantly, refrigerated products.

PSA on Wednes­day reported a rise in car unit sales for 2016 thanks to business in Iran which the carmaker is including again after the end to sanctions against Tehran. With the integration of sales from joint ventures and licence agreements in Iran, Peugeot booked a rise in deliveries of 5.6pc. On a comparable basis, without the integration of the Ira­nian contribution, the figure dropped by 2pc from 2015. The group' s three brands Peugeot, Citroen and DS, sold just over three million cars last year, of which 233,000 were produced under licence in Iran. In 2015, the group sold 2.9 million units. PSA' s post-sanctions return to Iran resulted in joint ventures with local companies Iran Khodro and Saipa, and a partnership with Arian Motor.

SYRIA CONFLICT

Syrian activists say they have given U.N. investigators evidence of alleged war crimes committed by Russia and Iranian-backed militia in the battle for the Syrian city of Aleppo, calling for them to face justice for killing civilians and other atrocities... "We also urge the Commission to explore fully all credible accounts of Iran's complicity in war crimes in Aleppo," it said, citing the "central role" of Iranian-backed militias in enforcing the siege and preventing civilians from fleeing. Iran, which has backed President Bashar al-Assad with weapons, oil shipments and military advisers, denies any involvement in killing of civilians and emphasizes Tehran's determination to support Assad in his "fight against terrorism".

TERRORISM

A US court this week ordered the governments of Iran and Syria to pay nearly $200 million to the family of an Israeli infant killed by a Hamas terrorist in a 2014 vehicular attack in Jerusalem. The US District Court in Washington, DC ruled Tuesday that Tehran and Damascus were liable to provide compensation for damages amounting to $178,500,000 due to their financial backing of the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas. The Israeli NGO Shurat HaDin represented the family of dual Israeli-American citizen Chaya Zissel Braun, the three-month-old baby who was killed when Palestinian terrorist Abdel Rahman Shaludi rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people at the Ammunition Hill light-rail station in the capital. Israeli officials identified the perpetrator as a convicted terrorist who had previously served a prison sentence and had ties to Hamas.

DOMESTIC POLITICS

Officials in the southern Iranian city of Shiraz have pledged to look into suggestions of a link between public health risks and the jamming of communications in the area, after residents took to the streets to complain of ailments that could stem from technology used to block foreign broadcasts. Authorities have acknowledged in the past that jamming takes place in Iran, but no official has ever come forward to assume responsibility for the practice. The officials in Shiraz offered their assurances at a January 9 gathering where dozens of citizens called for action against jamming, which they suspect of causing health problems such as headaches and even cancer. "Jamming is betrayal of the people," some chanted. Others argued that good health is their "inalienable right."

OPINION & ANALYSIS

A 56-year-old conservative cleric relatively unknown to the outside world is quietly emerging as a frontrunner to be Iran's next supreme leader. Ebrahim Raisi is the custodian of Astan Quds Razavi, the wealthiest charity in the Muslim world and the organisation in charge of Iran's holiest shrine. It is believed he is being groomed to be a leading candidate to succeed 77-year-old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei's tenure, which has spanned more than a quarter-century, will end only with his death; but the sudden death on Sunday of Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the country's greatest political survivor, has revived speculation about the succession. In 2014, Khamenei, the country's ultimate decision-maker and its commander-in-chief, was announced to have undergone prostate surgery, which broke a taboo on the topic.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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