Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Eye on Iran: Syria Deal Draws Iran into Alliance with Russia and Turkey


   EYE ON IRAN
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Russia, Turkey and Iran agreed Tuesday to the outlines of a plan to reinforce a cease-fire in Syria, establishing the three most significant allies of the protagonists in the conflict as guarantors to a peace process. The deal concluded two days of talks in Kazakhstan's capital, Astana, that drew Iran into a burgeoning alliance with Russia and Turkey over ways to secure a settlement. It set broad but vague parameters for a cease-fire enforcement mechanism and committed the three countries to jointly fight the Islamic State and Syria's al-Qaeda affiliate. It will also provide a test of Russia's new role as the lead power broker in efforts to secure a sustainable, long-term solution to the war... the Syrians played only a peripheral role at the talks. The real negotiations took place at a hotel several miles away, among the Russian, Iranian and Turkish officials who hammered out the deal. The head of the Syrian rebel delegation, Mohammed Alloush, questioned Iran's commitment to the cease-fire deal, citing its role in arming and funding the militias that have been behind many violations of the truce.

Kuwait's foreign minister will make a rare visit to Tehran on Wednesday to deliver a message to President Hassan Rouhani on a "basis of dialogue" between Gulf Arab states and arch-rival Iran, Kuwait's state news agency reported. The visit comes days after Rouhani said countries including Kuwait had offered to mediate in the escalating feud between Shi'ite Muslim Iran and Sunni power Saudi Arabia. Kuwaiti news agency KUNA quoted Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah Khaled al-Sabah as saying relations between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) of six Arab states "must be based on the UN Charter and principles of international law".

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is losing some public support ahead of a May election, according to a new opinion poll, potentially signaling a shift toward his hard-line opponents within the ruling clerical establishment following the country's historic nuclear deal. The survey results paint a picture of an Iranian public wary of the trust Mr. Rouhani placed in the U.S. and other world powers when his administration negotiated the deal, and skeptical about the economic benefits they thought it would bring. Conducted in December for the University of Maryland, the survey is based on telephone interviews with 1,000 Iranians and provides a gauge of public opinion in a country where independent polling is rare. Some 69% of Iranians surveyed said they viewed Mr. Rouhani either very favorably or somewhat favorably. That represents a significant decline from the roughly 82% who saw him very favorably or somewhat favorably in a June poll from the university. The share of respondents who view him very favorably has fallen steadily from 61% in August 2015 to 28% in the new poll.

UANI IN THE NEWS

Following the meeting of President Donald Trump with three automobile industry leaders at the White House on Tuesday, an advocacy group is drawing attention to Fiat Chrysler's ties with Iran. Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne was one of the three automotive executives who ate breakfast with Trump on Tuesday. Marchionne's company, the United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) watchdog organization said in statement later in the day, is reportedly in the midst of negotiating a deal to reenter the Iranian market via a partnership with the Iran Khodro Group - a subsidiary of a regime-owned company involved in the Islamic Republic's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. "Automakers have long known the risks of doing business with Iran, the world's leading state sponsor of terror," UANI CEO Ambassador Mark D. Wallace stated. "Any company meeting with the Trump administration should be transparent about its activities, and be prepared for the consequences of working with an Iranian regime committed to its long-standing 'Death to America' dogma."

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS

The former CIA director, General David Petraeus, attended the tenth conference of The Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and provided a glimpse into security issues facing the new administration in Washington. "The US must prepare for action against Iran, if necessary," he declared on Tuesday... Petraeus commented, "I told Trump that we need to repeat what we want - for Iran not to have nuclear weapons and for the Islamic Republic to stop striving for a Shiite hegemony in the region. If you ask the Gulf states, their first problem is Iran, and only afterwards comes ISIS, Yemen, the Muslim Brotherhood, and then the Palestinian problem - which was in first place for many years". He added and emphasized: "The US must declare that it will not enable a nuclear Iran, and that the American military will be ready for action in the region, if and when. In addition, the US should work on a joint operation with the Allies if necessary".

BUSINESS RISK

Iranians love high fashion, but luxury companies planning to tap Persian appetite for designer clothes and bags are facing stiff competition from their very own brands-albeit fake ones... Cut off from the global economy by international sanctions over the past decade, Iran's importers have had a tough time bringing in real European goods that the growing middle class wants to buy. Fakes-many high-quality-have been meeting that demand... Now that most sanctions on Iran have been removed with the country's nuclear deal, this ecosystem of knockoffs is confounding genuine luxury retailers, slowing their entry into a promising new market... Roberto Cavalli opened a boutique in Tehran's wealthy Zaferaniyeh neighborhood last February, and Versace followed in April, both in partnership with Iranian businessman Farshid Jamali.
"Sales have been satisfactory, but lower than what we expected," Mr. Jamali said.

SANCTIONS RELIEF

Austria's OMV and Iran's Dana Energy have signed a memorandum of understanding to evaluate possible oil and gas development and redevelopment projects in Iran, the companies said Wednesday, in a development that could open an indirect route for UAE interests to participate in Iran's upstream petroleum sector... the OMV/Dana agreement is unusual in bringing to Iran an international oil company in which an Arabian state entity holds a substantial equity stake, and in teaming up the international partner with an Iranian private-sector petroleum company instead of one owned by Iran's government... OMV is the former state petroleum company of Austria in which Vienna still holds a 31.5% stake. Its second-biggest shareholder, with 24.9%, is Abu Dhabi government-owned International Petroleum Investment Co., which last Saturday became a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mubadala Investment, the newly created Abu Dhabi industrial group with international petroleum assets that include over 800,000 b/d of oil production.

Brazilian planemaker Embraer SA, the world's biggest maker of regional jets, said it's optimistic that a U.S. government led by Donald Trump will still grant it the clearances needed to sell aircraft to Iran. While Airbus Group SE and Boeing Co. have already sealed deals to supply a range of jetliners to the Islamic republic after obtaining licenses under the Barack Obama administration, Embraer is in the final stages of order talks, Chief Executive Officer Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva said in an interview. "There is a lot of uncertainty now regarding this new administration," Silva said Wednesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos. "But I believe in general terms Mr. Trump is a businessman. He is very pragmatic and he is for business. So we hope things won't change too much." The U.S. is able to block plane exports to Iran from foreign manufacturers even after the easing of international sanctions because of the high American content of most aircraft. Embraer's current models use General Electric Co. engines, while Pratt & Whitney powerplants will feature on new versions.

Starting February 2017, HDASCO Line provides a new commercial offer between HAROPA - Port of Le Havre and many Iranian and Iraqi ports. HDASCO Line (Hafez Darya Arya Shipping Company), also named HDS lines, is the Iranian national shipping company specialized in container transport and a subsidiary of IRISL Group (Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines)... Le Havre calls are every Tuesday at the Terminal de France (TDF) and handled by the Générale de Manutention Portuaire (GMP). "HDASCO Line is a well-known shipping line at the port of Le Havre, says Hervé CORNEDE - HAROPA Commercial and Marketing Director: before the embargo, the Iranian containerships called at Le Havre every week between 2006 and 2009, connecting the main Iranian ports". According to Jean-Marc PELTIER - Liner Department Manager, Worms Services Maritimes Agency - Le Havre: "This is a great opportunity offered to the French importers and exporters who wish to develop their trade with Iran.

MILITARY MATTERS

Two airlines sanctioned by the United States for enabling Iran's global terrorist operations appear to have played a central role in moving illicit missile components from Ukraine to the Islamic Republic, according to information obtained by the Washington Free Beacon. Ukrainian authorities confirmed this week they had seized a shipment of missile system components bound for Iran, which could put the Islamic Republic in violation of international bans prescribed under the nuclear agreement. Video of the seizure show Ukrainian authorities uncovering 17 boxes of missile parts bound for Iran and meant to be used in its Fagot anti-tank guided missile system. Sources familiar with the incident told the Free Beacon that the airlines involved in this illicit activity have long been sanctioned by the United States for providing support to Iran's global terror network. The reversal of longstanding economic sanctions on Iran provided under the nuclear agreement has boosted this activity and strengthened Iran's illicit weapons pipeline, according to these sources... The weapons were found onboard planes operated by Ukraine's UM Airlines, which officially partners with Iran's Mahan Air. The United States has sanctioned both carriers for providing support to Iran's terror network, including the transportation of weapons and resources to the terror group Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy group.

REGIONAL DESTABILIZATION

Iran's state television says Kuwait's foreign minister is seeking to improve relations between Gulf Arab countries and Iran. The TV on Wednesday quoted Sheikh Sabah Al-Khaled Al-Sabah as saying during a visit to Tehran that Gulf Arab nations hope the ties "with Iran will normalize" and that Iran and the Arab countries should be "regional partners." It says al-Sabah met his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif and handed over a message for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on the "necessity of improving relations."

OPINION & ANALYSIS

European powers have been quietly warning members of President Trump's team that new sanctions on Iran are a nonstarter across the Atlantic. One senior European official went as far as to say that if any new U.S. sanctions were to cause the Iran nuclear deal to collapse, most Europeans will say it was Washington's fault, barring any "major provocation" from the Iranians. This warning ignores an important fact: In the time since the Iran nuclear deal was implemented, Tehran has already shown a willful disregard for the spirit of the agreement. In the past year, Tehran has tested multiple ballistic missiles, ordered Russian Sukhoi-30 fighter jets without receiving the required blessing of the United Nations Security Council and continued its "illegal proliferation-sensitive procurement activities" at a "quantitatively high level," according to the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. Given that the European Union spent considerable political capital sealing the nuclear deal, its leaders should be more invested in ensuring it is strongly enforced and that Iran is held accountable for its nonnuclear aggression. Continuing to ignore the mullahs' actions will mean surrendering the West's considerable economic, political and moral leverage.

As the Trump administration begins planning its outreach to Moscow, one question for the new president will be whether he can persuade Russia to turn away from Iran. The two countries have grown closer since 2015, when a group of nations lifted some sanctions on Iran in exchange for more transparency about its nuclear program. Russia sells Iran advanced air defense systems, and Iran provides its officers and militias to conquer the Syrian towns and cities indiscriminately bombed by Russian aircraft.  Trump administration officials tell me that they will explore the extent to which Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to end this relationship and cooperate with U.S. policy to counter Iranian aggression in Syria and the Middle East. "It's important to find out what are the limits of Russia's willingness to cooperate with us with regard to Iran," said Michael Ledeen, who during the transition served as an adviser to Michael Flynn, now Trump's national security adviser. "Those conversations have to take place." Ledeen was Flynn's co-author of "Field of Fight," a 2016 book that outlined the retired general's national security vision. That book makes the case that Iran must be defeated in order to win the war against radical Islam.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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