TOP STORIES
While the news
trumpeted this week is all about the departure of U.S. security
advisor Michael Flynn over his entanglement with Russia,Iran and its
potential impact on oil prices shouldn't get short shrift, RBC
Capital Markets strategists say. RBC's Helima Croft, global head of
commodity strategy, with commodity strategists Michael Tran and
Christopher Louney, writes:
"While much of
the media's attention has focused on the prospects for the Middle
East peace process, Iran was also on the agenda when Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Donald Trump this week
at the White House. The Israeli position on Iran has seemingly
evolved from calling for an outright rejection of the 2015 Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to seeking stricter policing of
the [nuclear] agreement (which could include calls for greater access
for inspectors to sensitive military sites) and an increase in
sanctions for non-nuclear activities (i.e. ballistic missile tests or
providing arms to the Houthi rebels in Yemen). Such a tactical shift
could gain significant traction in Washington where there seems to be
little appetite for ripping up the agreement. With the sudden
departure of national security advisor Michael Flynn, the White House
has lost one of the most hawkish voices on Iran and one of the most
public proponents of a more confrontational approach. Flynn's
departure could yield a more temperate stance towards Iran,
especially if his replacement hails from the traditional foreign
policy establishment. Yet, we caution that any effort to tighten the
enforcement of the nuclear deal or alter its terms by eliminating the
sunset provisions will likely be met with stiff resistance in Iran...
we continue to see significant risks to the agreement in 2017.
President Donald
Trump hailed the United States' "unbreakable" bond with
Israel on Wednesday and promised Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
that Iran would never be permitted to build a nuclear weapon...
"With this visit the United States, again, reaffirms our
unbreakable bond with our cherished ally, Israel," Trump said.
"The security challenges faced by Israel are enormous, including
the threat of Iran's nuclear ambitions, which I've talked a lot
about. One of the worst deals I've ever seen is the Iran deal. My
administration has already imposed new sanctions on Iran, and I will
do more to prevent Iran from ever developing-I mean ever-a nuclear
weapon."
Iran sits on what
are thought to be the world's largest gas reserves, yet can barely
supply its own domestic demand. Since the United Nations-backed deal
over Tehran's nuclear program spurred the lifting of international
sanctions, the country has strived to attract foreign investment in
developing oil fields and upgrading its aging infrastructure. The
Ministry of Petroleum helped to convene the CWC Iran Gas Conference
this week in Frankfurt, Germany, to bring together government figures
and private investors. Industry estimates suggest Iran needs to
invest $100 billion in order to fully exploit the reserves. The
nuclear agreement removed some sanctions on Iran, but mainly in
Europe. It remains extremely difficult for American companies to do
business, according to Reiner Jahn, vice president of the
German-Iranian Chamber of Commerce and expert on financing deals with
Iran. "Unless it's licensed by OFAC, the U.S. sanctions
authority, there is no way for an American to negotiate any
transaction with an Iranian," he said. So Iran is looking
elsewhere. Indian demand for gas is forecast to grow rapidly, and
Tehran sees it as a key market. The private consortium South Asia Gas
Enterprise, or SAGE, has advanced plans for the world's deepest
underwater pipeline connecting the two countries... U.S. President
Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the nuclear deal, and he has
imposed new sanctions on Iran following a recent missile test.
History shows that the United States could still intervene to disrupt
foreign investment, says Jahn. "The U.S. invented secondary
sanctions, where they sanction European companies that acted in
complete accordance with EU law, but not in accordance with U.S. law.
Therefore. I think they have an impact in our market," he
said... The nuclear deal may have lifted some restrictions, but
analysts say Trump has introduced new uncertainty just as foreign
investment in Iran starts to build.
IRAN
NUCLEAR DEAL
U.S. Secretary of
State Rex Tillerson said on Thursday he did not suggest to French
Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault that Washington planned to scrap
the Iranian nuclear agreement. "I didn't leave any such
impression," Tillerson told reporters before a meeting with the
Argentinian foreign minister, when asked about a report which cited
Ayrault as saying the French had the impression that Washington
wanted to get rid of the deal.
France considers
the U.S. position on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict "confused
and worrying", its foreign minister said on Thursday, reacting
to U.S. President Trump's dropping of the America's commitment to a
two-state solution... Having just returned from Tehran, Ayrault said
he was concerned by the new administration's calls to review from
scratch the agreement between major powers and Iran over its nuclear
program. "The deal must be completely respected by Iran, but it
is out of the question to open up a new construction site for an
agreement that was reached in difficulty. I sense that there was a
difference of opinion or at least question marks," he said. He
said the real debate on Iran now was not the nuclear deal, but its
"interference" in the region, especially Syria and Iraq.
Mark Fitzpatrick of
the International Institute for Strategic Studies has been intimately
involved with the ins and outs of the landmark nuclear deal with
Iran... "I think it's clear that the nuclear deal is in
jeopardy," he tells Fox News, but notes that Iran does not want
to be the one to break that deal. "So there will probably be a
tit for tat, and Iran will face additional pressure, not getting the
economic benefits it wanted. It will be testing more missiles and so
forth and within a year the deal will be under very severe
pressure." Fitzpatrick suggests that if the deal were to
unravel, and Iran were to resume the level enrichment that would get
it within a couple months of being able to produce highly enriched
uranium for a nuclear weapon, there would be serious talk again about
the prospect of a military strike. While conventional wisdom has been
that since several states are party to the deal, the United States
alone couldn't undo it, Fitzpatrick believes Washington could in fact
cause a de facto dismantling of the accord, by effectively keeping
European countries to refrain from doing business with the Islamic
Republic... Fitzpatrick is concerned about the U.S. visa ban, currently
suspended, on seven countries, which includes Iran. He says until
now, those with pro-U.S. sentiments in Iran could say that U.S.
punitive actions vis-a-vis the Islamic Republic were directed at
Iranian government officials and actions, "but a visa ban that
keeps the entire nation of Iran from entering the U.S. attacks
everybody."
U.S.-IRAN
RELATIONS
The Trump
administration's promise to Israel this week that Iran will not be
allowed to get "nuclear weapons capability" could indicate
a US policy shift vis-à-vis the Islamic Republic, two Middle East
experts assessed on Thursday... David Makovsky - director of the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank's Project on the
Middle East Peace Process - said the language of the statement
"might be signaling something." "Is he [Trump] saying
that the United States will not allow Iran to get highly-enriched
uranium that's weapons-grade uranium?" Makovsky stated. "It
would be interesting to ask either at the White House or the Pentagon
about the meaning of the phrase that they use because every word here
is pregnant with meaning and the past administration did not want to
use that word 'capability.' They said, you know, 'they will not get a
nuclear bomb, period.'"
A top aide to US
President Donald Trump told The Algemeiner on Thursday that despite
the resignation this week of General Michael Flynn as national
security adviser, Washington remains committed to his staunch
positions on Iran. "Flynn's statements on the Islamic Republic
reflect the new administration's stance, as the president has been
very clear," said Deputy Assistant to the President Sebastian
Gorka... Gorka said, "We are reassessing US policy to the regime
in Iran and are committed to not facilitating the mullahs in their
destabilization of the whole region as the Obama White House did,
especially through the disastrous JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action)," otherwise known as the nuclear deal... Asked whether
Netanyahu's input had an effect on Trump's statement about not
allowing Iran to achieve "nuclear capability" - rather than
merely preventing it from building a nuclear weapon - Gorka said, "The
key is that this administration has been adamant that it will treat
friends as friends. And you listen to your friends' concerns."
Gorka went on to explain that the opposite messages being conveyed to
Israel and Iran from the White House are in keeping with a Marine
Corps motto - which, he said, has been informally adopted by the
Trump administration - "No better friend, no worse enemy."
Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu held talks with senior congressional figures on a
range of Middle East security issues Wednesday, hours after meeting
with US President Donald Trump. Netanyahu met with Senate majority
leader Mitch McConnell, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, House
Speaker Paul Ryan, House majority leader Kevin McCarthy, House
minority leader Nancy Pelosi and House minority whip Steny Hoyer in a
series of sit-downs... In a statement, Ryan said the two had spoken
about "the need to hold Iran accountable for its actions,
bolster Israel's qualitative military edge, and push back against
international efforts to delegitimize the Jewish state."
The Americans were
greeted in Iran with red roses, smiling fans and a barrage of
selfies. No diplomatic crisis here. But that wasn't the case just two
weeks ago. Back then - in the wake of President Trump's now-frozen
travel ban - it didn't look like a group of U.S. wrestlers would be
allowed to compete in one of the sport's most prestigious events. Now
many are calling it a triumph of sports over politics.
BUSINESS
RISK
In several
respects, the NITC's resumption of oil deliveries to Europe is a big
step forward for Tehran and a sign that the nuclear deal is working
toward ending Iran's isolation. For instance, Iran can now finally
utilize its own tankers... Apart from the cost dimension - using its
own tankers will likely be cheaper for Iran than needing to hire
probably reluctant foreign services - there is also a political
dimension. Wary of engaging with Tehran even as the nuclear-related
sanctions are lifted, international shipping lines as well as their
insurers might take an even more cautious stance toward the country
in light of potential new US sanctions targeting international firms
engaged with Iran... Tehran is certainly more flexible and secure in
terms of ensuring steady deliveries using its own ships. By and
large, however, the step does little to change the outlook for Iran's
energy industry. In the year since the January 2016 implementation of
the nuclear deal, Iran has already achieved the maximum of what was
possible in the short term. The country has steadily moved back to
its pre-sanctions position in terms of crude oil production and
exports, with output reaching 3.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) by
the end of 2016 and exports of crude and condensate peaking at 2.6
mbpd in September - though some sources put it as high as 2.8 mbpd.
All this happened before the first Iranian oil tanker reached Europe.
Actually, Iranian oil exports to Europe began rising long before the
NITC's resumption of deliveries to the EU. Iran's ability to increase
oil production and exports beyond current levels does not hinge on
the use of its own tankers. A series of other obstacles will need to
be overcome. Iran will need to increase its production capacity
beyond the current ceiling of around 4 mbpd. To this end, Tehran
needs to attract investment and technology from abroad. According to
Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh, the Iranian energy industry needs some
$100 billion in foreign capital. At this point, however, it is
uncertain whether and how the administration of President Hassan
Rouhani will succeed in luring international energy companies to the
country. Domestically, in order to move forward with the long-delayed
new petroleum law aimed at attracting foreign investment and
technology - the Iran Petroleum Contract - the Rouhani administration
will need to strike a balance. During the sanctions years, companies
affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other
entities linked to the conservative camp moved into Iran's energy
industry. Considering their political influence within the Islamic
Republic, their consent and participation in the development of the
Iranian energy industry will be necessary for the law to proceed.
Tellingly, the first and thus far only such contract has been awarded
to an entity overseen by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Internationally, Iran must convince foreign companies to engage in
its energy sector by concluding binding contracts rather than what
has largely been offered thus far: non-binding memoranda of understanding.
This change has become more difficult as the Trump administration has
increased harsh rhetoric toward Iran and, within weeks of taking
office, already imposed new sanctions..
Iranian steel
imports have become the latest threat to European steelmakers, their
trade group said on Thursday, after imports from Iran rose by nearly
eight times between 2013 and 2016. Steel lobby group Eurofer said on
Thursday that Iranian exports to Europe had leapt to just over 1
million tonnes annually, putting the country just behind India at 1.9
million tonnes, while China shipped 5.7 million tonnes in 2016. Iran
has sought to boost its steel sector, with help from foreign
partners, as it targeted economic expansion following the 2015 deal
to curb Iran's nuclear programme in return for an easing of sanctions.
But Tehran has said it is considering export duties on iron ore, as
India has done, which would increase the availability of cheap raw
materials for its own steelmakers. Eurofer, which represents an
industry that has to import its iron ore, says that amounts to
protectionism .. The EU is investigating alleged dumping of
hot-rolled steel by producers in Serbia and Iran as well as Brazil,
Russia and Ukraine.
SANCTIONS
RELIEF
Tehran has reached
a deal with an international aircraft leasing company to finance the
acquisition of 77 planes from Boeing and Airbus, according to local
media reports. Details of the deal remain opaque at this stage and it
is not clear who it has been signed with or when it will come into
force. However, it is likely to be just the first of several large
contracts in the coming weeks and months... Irish leasing companies
appear to be in a strong position to get involved in any contracts
being negotiated. Ireland is one of the world's leading locations for
aircraft leasing companies and, on February 11, the Civil Aviation
Organization of Iran (CAOI) signed a cooperation agreement with the
Irish Aviation Authority (IAA), covering aircraft leasing, flight
supervision and maintenance and repair among other areas... Iran
Aseman Airlines is set to be one of the first to take advantage of
that agreement. It is planning to lease seven Airbus A320neo aircraft
and "the terms of this contract [with the IAA] will apply as
soon as these aircrafts land in Iran after being registered in
Ireland," according to the CAOI. Among the Irish leasing
companies linked to possible Iranian deals has been Avalon, which is
owned by China's Bohai Leasing. The Irish Times reported on February
11 that Avalon's chief commercial officer John Higgins had spoken
about a recent trip to Iran when addressing an event held by the
Ireland China Business Association a day earlier.
Intelligent
transportation and gas meters you can read from your phone: The
Internet of Things is heading for Iran thanks to a deal announced
Thursday. Internet of Things applications allow users to monitor and
control everything from fridges to city-wide metro systems by
connecting remote sensors with computers, mobile phones and smart
watches. French startup Sigfox, which runs a wireless IoT network
connecting such devices, signed the deal with local internet provider
Parsnet to deploy its services in Iran by June 2017, Parsnet said in
a statement... Parsnet's parent company, ParsOnline, is one of Iran's
biggest internet providers.
Reuters reported
that Belarus's Bel Oil had purchased 80,000 tons - equal to 600,000
barrels - of Iranian Light and Heavy crude oil from National Iranian
Oil Company (NIOC) for loading in February. Bel Oil is expected to
ship the Iranian crude oil to either the Black Sea port of Odessa or
the Baltic port of Ventspils for rail transportation to Belarus, the
report added. The logistics for this are yet to be agreed... Belarus'
reported purchase of oil from Iran comes as the country is trying to
look for alternative crude oil supplies after Russia cut exports to
the country in 2016 over a gas price row between the two countries.
FOREIGN
AFFAIRS
Iran on Thursday
rejected U.S. President Donald Trump's statement that its nuclear ambitions
were a major security challenge and said its arch foe Israel was the
biggest threat to global peace.
Shared fears over
US President Donald Trump's policies could bring Iran and Gulf Arab
countries closer together, analysts said after a fence-mending
regional tour by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani... Kuwait, which
unlike many of its neighbours has maintained relations with Tehran,
last month launched a dialogue with the Islamic republic to normalise
Iran-Gulf ties. Iran also has good relations with Oman where Rouhani
was warmly welcomed by Sultan Qaboos, whose country has played a role
in the past as a key mediator between the Islamic republic and the
West... But prominent Kuwaiti political analyst Sami al-Nasef said
the success of Tehran's initiative depended "on Iran's actions
rather than slogans." "Iran is now interfering in Iraq,
Syria and Yemen... and is backing (Shiite) militias in several
countries in the region," he told AFP.
As the presidency
of Donald Trump threatens to renew hostilities against both
countries, Iran and Cuba signed 12 new cooperation agreements
Thursday as the Intergovernmental Commission comes to a close in
Havana. The agreements and memorandums of understanding cover a broad
range of fields from agriculture, health, biotechnology and higher
education... Under the bilateral pacts, Cuban Institute of Radio and
Television and Iranian network HispanTV will enter into a memorandum
of understanding as the two countries look to strengthen economic and
commercial cooperation.
EXTREMISM
Iran's leadership
has continued to call for Israel's destruction since the nuclear deal
with world powers was forged in July 2015, according to a new report
published by the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs (JCPA)
"There is absolutely no indication of one iota of moderation by
the Iranian elite in their hostile intentions toward Israel since the
conclusion of the Iran nuclear agreement. Iranian policy in this
regard is driven by the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps," said former Israeli Foreign
Ministry Director-General Dore Gold, who heads the JCPA.
TERRORISM
Palestinian
Islamist group Hamas' ties with Iran is back under the spotlight
following the election of Yahya Sinwar, one of its hardline figures,
as its new leader in Gaza Strip. Analysts have raised questions about
the group's approach over the coming years and how it will influence
its affiliation to the Arab and Islamic world. Hamas has repeatedly
described its relationship with Iran as 'concrete'.. However, the
organization's ties with Iran suffered a setback over the Syrian war
in 2011 as a result of its support of the Syrian opposition and
rejection of Iranian meddling in the civil war... The latest shift is
the election of Sinwar, an initiator of the Hamas military wing, and
subsequently, a pro-Hezbollah and Iran figure. Ahead of Sinwar's
elections, [Hamas foreign relations chief] Osama Hamadan's visit to
Tehran where he held meetings with top Iranian officials,... to pay
condolences over the death of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, restored
the warmth between Iran and Hamas. Several Arab and Islamic
countries, sidetracked by the aggressive Iranian posture in the
region, are deeply distressed over the Iran-Hamas rapprochement being
an impediment to the Arab-Turkish axis to counter Tehran's hegemonic
regional ambitions.
IRAQ
CRISIS
Iran has agreed to
design and build industrial townships in a number of provinces in
Iraq. The deal will help unlock investment from within the war-torn
country, Iran's industry minister, Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, said
during a visit to Baghdad on 14 February, reports Iran's Fars news
agency. The minister said Iran would begin with several trial
projects, for which it would also supply industrial equipment and
investment.
SAUDI-IRAN
TENSIONS
Saudi Arabia and
other Western-backed Mideast states have switched the focus of their
military spending to more-offensive programs as tensions with Iran
ratchet up, according to a study by IHS Jane's. Purchases of items
intended to boost the attacking capabilities of warplanes, such as
precision air-to-ground missiles, advanced guidance systems and
air-to-air refueling gear that extends the duration of flights, are
leading an increase in defense outlay, with budgets set to swell by
up to 3 percent annually from 2018, the defense and security
specialist said... Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates
will "start to spend heavily" over the next two years as
the potential threat from Iran increases, with the former set to
return to budget growth this year, IHS projects.
HUMAN
RIGHTS
A British mother
jailed in Iran has been denied urgent treatment for a prison neck
injury that has left her unable to lift her arms or carry her child.
It is the latest act of cruelty inflicted on Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who has been held in Evin prison, Tehran, since
April last year on spying charges... Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, 38, who
holds British and Iranian nationality, is likely to have suffered the
injury during eight months in solitary confinement cells where
inmates must sleep on blankets spread on the floor, according to her
husband, Richard. Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a project manager for
Thomson Reuters Foundation, was arrested by Iranian Revolutionary
Guards last April as she attempted to board a plane home from a
holiday with her parents in Tehran. She was sentenced to a five-year
prison term in September on spying charges. Last month the judiciary
upheld the verdict of "disrupting national security" and
added two new charges: knowingly marrying a British spy and
recruiting for BBC Persian in 2009... Mrs Zaghari-Ratcliffe is one of
six dual nationals known to have been detained in Iran since 2015,
all on security-related charges.
Human rights
campaigners have accused Iran of silencing the mother of a protester
who was killed in post-election unrest in 2009. Shahnaz
Akmali's son, Moustafa Karimbeigi, was shot dead in December 2009
during protests after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won a second term in
office. Akmali was arrested last month after intelligence officials
raided her workplace and her house in Tehran. Officials have not
explained the reasons for her arrest. Akmali became politically
active after her son's killing, visiting families of other victims to
show her solidarity. Recently she had campaigned for the release of
Arash Sadeghi, a student activist serving a 19-year jail sentence,
who was on hunger strike for several months until January. Before her
arrest, Akmali had complained about pressure on her and her family,
particularly her daughter. "Kill me too, kill my daughter, but I
will not keep quiet and will follow my son's path," she said in
a video... Akmali said in the video that the authorities had
threatened to kill her daughter if she did not stop advocating for
the plight of other families.
In Iran, soccer
stadiums are a male-only affair: Women are banned from attending
games. Not all female sports fans are so easily dissuaded, however.
On Sunday, eight women found their own way to try to watch a match at
Tehran's Azadi Stadium. All eight are reported to have dressed as
men, with closely cropped hair and caps to hide their faces. Not well
enough, apparently - according to the Tasnim News Agency, security
guards spotted them as they entered and blocked them from the
stadium... This is not the first time that women have smuggled
themselves into Iranian soccer stadiums. Several women have filmed
themselves attending matches in disguise, and videos of them doing so
have gone viral. Female spectators are also banned from other sports.
In 2015, Ghoncheh Ghavami, a British-Iranian citizen, was sentenced
to a year in jail after she attempted to watch a men's volleyball
match. She had attended the match carrying a banner protesting the
rules.
DOMESTIC
POLITICS
A burgeoning crisis
between Iran and the United States has threatened to undermine the
pragmatic Rouhani, who was elected four years ago on promises to end
the country's isolation from the West. But now, amid new tensions
with the Trump administration, Rouhani's pro-dialogue approach is
under attack. The shift - from detente with the Obama administration
to open hostility with the White House under Trump - has left Rouhani
particularly vulnerable as he gears up for a presidential vote in
May... Indeed, the trouble for Rouhani started when Iranians, sick of
a sluggish economy... Since then, some restrictions have been lifted.
But others, such as those targeting Iran's alleged financial support
of terrorist groups, remain in place, sanctions experts say. Foreign
banks have also continued to avoid transactions with Iran, where
corruption and money laundering are rife, said Richard Nephew, former
principal deputy coordinator for sanctions policy at the State
Department. Iran also resumed selling oil on the international
market, but low prices stunted what many Iranians hoped would have
been a swift economic recovery. "Residual sanctions,
particularly those associated with Iran's support for terrorism,
continue to hamper [Iran's] economic performance, but so, too, did
Iran's poor business climate and low oil prices," said Nephew,
who also served as Iran director on the National Security Council
under President Obama. As a result, "the majority of people are
not satisfied with the economy," said Ali Omidi, professor of
international relations at the University of Isfahan. Unemployment
reached 12.7 percent in the second quarter of 2016 - up from 10.9
percent the year before - according to the latest data available from
Iran's central bank, and oil and non-oil-sector growth remained at 3
percent and 2.8 percent, respectively.
Over recent days,
Iran has been rocked by massive protests in its southwestern
Arab-majority Khuzestan province as power stations have failed and
water supplies have been cut off. Dust storms and poor weather in
this region, where temperatures can easily exceed 50 Celsius, are
being blamed for the breakdown in utilities. However, the underlying
environmental crisis that has prompted the unrest is a greater threat
to Iran's existence than any internal or external enemy. If Tehran
does not listen to the protesters' demands, it could bring about the
death of Iran through hunger and civil war. Thousands joined protests
in Ahwaz, demanding action to resolve an escalating environmental
crisis caused by the damming of the region's rivers, the
desertification of wetlands and industrial pollution... The crisis is
fuelling regional resentment in this ethnic Arab region against the
central government that is shared not only by protesters but also
many local politicians and officials. Many are prepared to go on the
record to condemn the government's atrocious environmental record...
The death of Khuzestan would precipitate the death of Iran. Without
sufficient downstream water, the province's agricultural sector will
collapse with dire national and international consequences. Khuzestan
province is Iran's biggest source of food crops. It is the leading
producer of wheat (1.1 mln tonnes per annum) and the second biggest
producer of maize (400,000 tonnes) and rice (300,000 tonnes). Over 40
percent of Iran's sugar production, a vital cash crop, comes from the
province, mostly from sugarcane... Iran's leading specialist on
desertification, Prof. Parviz Kordavani, warned last week that Iran
has depleted 70 percent of its ground water. He said that the
provincial competition for water will lead to domestic conflict
within five years.. the price would be massive. Environmental
collapse would carry with it the prospect of conflict on a par with
Syria's civil war, which itself had environmental causes. Millions of
Iranian environmental refugees would pour over its borders, seeking
food that is unavailable in their parched homeland.
OPINION
& ANALYSIS
General
Soleimani... is responsible for the death of nearly 500 Americans as
a consequence of him heading up the Quds Forces... this is the
organization that's responsible for assassinations outside Iran.
He was just caught in Moscow violating the existing sanctions
that we have on his travel... [W]e now see that not only are they
developing...ballistic missiles, but they're in consultation [with
Russia] obviously for additional weapons of war... And that is what
has to change... [W]e've lost a lot of ground. We've had billions
transferred in wealth to Iran, some of it cash and gold on pallets...
they don't take us seriously, and that's why they're developing these
new ICBMs. Now is the time for the administration to move on
establishing and pushing the new sanctions, not allowing companies to
do business with Iran.
Sanctions can be
imposed even while adhering to and strictly enforcing the nuclear
agreement - as flawed as it is... Iran's continuing intercontinental
ballistic missile program - whose only purpose is to carry a nuclear
warhead, must be front and center. This month's designations are a
good start. But more can be done to find and target the banks
and companies that are supplying this dangerous program aimed at us.
It also means more extraditions, prosecutions, and indictments of
sanctions violators. This proactive approach also means stepping up
our defenses and those of our regional partners. Second, the
Administration shouldn't be shy about tackling Iran's terror arm, the
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps... Around the region, the
Administration can attack Iran's proxy Hezbollah thanks to a new law
advanced by this Committee. And increased interdiction of Iranian
arms shipments to the revolutionary Houthis in Yemen, clearer rules
of engagement for U.S. forces in the Gulf, and better defense
cooperation with our partners on the frontlines of the Iranian threat
is all needed. Of course Iran will howl and threaten at each step of
the way. However, the nuclear agreement does not leave us defenseless
against Tehran's threatening behavior. Careful coordination with
allies is a must. And all along we should be clear that the choice is
with Iran to end its threatening, destabilizing behavior.
The difference
between the Trump Administration's response and the Obama
Administration's response was a two-word phrase: "on
notice." So what does it mean exactly to put 'Iran on notice?'
How will the Administration respond if Iran tests the President
again? Does the Administration have a plan?... I hope that the Administration
will make it clear what their plan is on Iran because surely, Iran
will continue its provocative behavior. We cannot afford a half-baked
or reckless foreign policy. Rash decisions concerning America's role
in the world could have serious consequences for American personnel
and interests.. Additionally, if this turns out to be an empty
threat, then this Administration will not have done its job. We have
to really confront the Iranian threat and let them know that we're
serious about it, that we mean business. I don't trust the Iranian
government. I didn't vote for the Iranian deal. But the Iranian
deal is now in place, and I think we have to ensure that Iran lives
up to every bit of its responsibility under that deal... We've got to
make sure that Iran understands that there are severe consequences if
they continue on their ways...
The ongoing debate
surrounding Trump's Iran policy-should the president enforce the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, tear it up, or renegotiate
it?-poses the wrong question and, in so doing, misconstrues the
challenge facing Washington. For Tehran, the JCPOA now functions as
an instrument of leverage that Tehran can rely upon to pursue its
broader regional ambitions. By repeatedly threatening to abandon the
accord if Washington reimposes sanctions for any reason, Tehran
deterred the administration of former President Barack Obama from
enacting meaningful economic penalties for the regime's regional
aggression, human rights abuses, ballistic missile tests, and, most
troubling, violations of the JCPOA. Trump must seek to reverse this
dynamic by raising the costs for Tehran's misbehavior so dramatically
that it is Iran, rather than the United States, that will seek a new
deal aimed at relieving those costs. Washington can then use its
regained leverage to negotiate new terms more conducive to its
interests. Put differently, the best way to advance the JCPOA's
objective of nonproliferation may lie in shifting the debate over its
survival from Washington to Tehran... [A]ny strategy should focus on
the restoration of U.S. deterrence. Instead of abrogating the JCPOA,
Trump should strictly enforce it by insisting on greater transparency
and accountability in its implementation. At the same time, he should
make clear, in both word and deed, that Washington will no longer
allow the accord to impose a straitjacket on broader U.S. policy in
the Middle East. By exacting robust penalties on Iran for the full
range of its transgressions, the United States should aim to persuade
Tehran that a renegotiation of the JCPOA would advance its own
self-interest.
Sweden has just
announced that it will introduce a U.N. resolution on Iran's human
rights record-at the same time as its leaders are being ridiculed
worldwide for selling out Iranian women's rights in their visit this
week to Tehran. UN Watch, a non-governmental human rights NGO in
Geneva, slammed Sweden's self-declared "first feminist
government in the world" for having sacrificed its principles
and betrayed the rights of Iranian women as trade minister Ann Linde
and other female members walked before Iranian President Rouhani on
Saturday wearing Hijabs, Chadors, and long coats indoors, all in
deference to Iran's oppressive and unjust forced Hijab law - despite
Stockholm's promise to promote "a gender equality
perspective" internationally, and to adopt a "feminist
foreign policy" in which "equality between women and men is
a fundamental aim" In doing so, Sweden's female leaders ignored
the recent appeal by Iranian women's right activist Masih Alinejad
who urged Europeans female politicians "to stand for their own
dignity" and to refuse to kowtow to the compulsory Hijab while
visiting Iran.
The Iranian
authorities have arrested and detained the mother of one of the
victims of the government's violent crackdown on protests in 2009,
Human Rights Watch said today. The authorities should immediately
release Shahnaz Karimbeigi, who became an activist after her son was
killed and has been in Evin prison since January 25, 2017, or
promptly bring recognizable criminal charges against her and
guarantee her a fair trial. Karimbeigi's 26-year-old son, Mostafa,
was one of several protesters who were shot and killed during
protests on December 27, 2009, linked to the disputed 2009
presidential election.
Faced with the
Syrian debacle, Trump administration officials, among others, claim
that the U.S. can exploit the weakness of the growing strategic
coalition between Russia and Iran, ultimately using Russia to contain
Iran in Syria and throughout the Middle East. The Obama
administration had this idea too, and it remains wrong. Circumstances
could arise that might split the partners, but American outreach to
Moscow won't do it. A bigger question for the U.S. right now is
whether we can prevent other nations vital to our interests from
shifting toward the new Russian-Iranian orbit... Thinking too much
about [Russo-Iranian] historical disagreements, however, obscures the
deep commonality of aims shared by Moscow and Tehran--driving the
U.S. from the Middle East being the chief of these common goals.
Russia and Iran also share allies and goals around their
periphery.. Only extreme circumstances will split the Russo-Iranian
coalition in Syria-if the Assad regime faces defeat, or the
pro-regime coalition succeeds enough that it can move on to consider
its next goals. Neither is likely... Russia needs Iran in Syria at
least as badly as Iran needs Russia.
The year 2016
appears to be an inflection point at which Iran recognized its need
to move toward a more conventionally offensive and expansionist
concept of warfare. This could include foreign bases and air, land,
and sea power projection capabilities... Despite this shift, Iran
still primarily focuses military doctrine on defense, deterrence, and
asymmetric warfare because they remain both hindered by weak
offensive military capability and driven by high perceptions of
threat from the US and regional adversaries... New resources from the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and future United Nations weapons
sanctions relaxation may encourage further expansion into
conventional offensive capabilities. However, threat perceptions,
particularly from potential clashes with regional rivals or direct
conflict with the US, will be the more dominant factor in the extent
to which Iran reorients toward offensive warfare.
It is not important
that Michael Flynn, the National Security Advisor to President Donald
Trump, has resigned... Trump has surrounded himself with a group of
military men who are hostile to Iran and who believe that radical
Islam threatens the security of the US. Retired Lieutenant General
Micheal Flynn was only one of these men... Keith Kellogg, who is now
serving as the Acting National Security Advisor, worked in Baghdad in
2003 and was a witness to Iranian infiltration and escalation of
al-Qaeda violence against American troops. On Tuesday, the Department
of Defense announced sending General Joseph Rank, the American
military attaché in the UAE, to head the Middle East team in the
National Security Council (NSC). Practically, he is in charge of
coordinating and planning Trump's policies toward the region. I don't
remember that former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama hired
generals in charge of the Middle East affairs in the NSC. The current
Secretary of Defense is James Mattis. He too served in Iraq and he
was the commander of the Central Command when shelling Iran was an
option... Truth also is that Trump chose these military men because
he believes that Iran poses a security threat and intervenes in the
region's affairs and that militias affiliated with it threaten the
stability and safety of international navigation. Trump is the one
who believes that radical Islam poses a threat to US security.
[I]t does seem that
with Iran constantly calling for the destruction of Israel, Netanyahu
could well turn out to be the wild card on this issue. But should
such an attack eventually take place, the US would be best placed to
destroy Iran's underground facilities using the Massive Ordnance
Penetrator (MOP), a "bunker buster" bomb packed with around
6,000 pounds of explosives, which would have to be dropped from B-2
stealth bombers... In the worst case scenario of bombing a nuclear
facility, civilian casualties, property damage, and radiation
exposure would be catastrophic. Some experts suggest that with a
number of Iran's nuclear facilities located near heavily populated areas,
toxic plumes would spread across city centres within a short time,
killing as many as 70,000 and exposing around 300,000 to radioactive
fallout... But should the regime eventually gain a nuclear weapon,
the US or Israel might feel that desperate measures have to be taken,
and then the genie would be out of the bottle. Because as far as the
continuance of Iran's nuclear program is concerned, in the worst case
scenario, if the regime was to produce a nuclear weapon, the ruling
mullahs could use it as a big stick to blackmail its neighbours,
which would also embolden Iran's proxies Hezbollah and Hamas to
strike hard against targets in the US and Israel, given confidence by
the thought that their paymasters had gone nuclear. Then buoyed up by
the possession of such weapons, the Iranian regime might well decide
to disrupt the world's oil supplies, by either attacking shipping or
mining the Hormuz Straits. Then at the end of it all, fearing threats
from their arch enemy, both Saudi Arabia and Turkey were certain to
join the scramble for nuclear weapons. But even more alarming, there
was the added fear that the Iranian mullahs might even supply these
weapons to terror groups, should they eventually be attacked, and end
up with their backs against the wall, or in the event of regime
collapse, set off Armageddon. So whatever the risk is for stopping
it, Iran cannot be allowed to get its hands on nuclear weapons, and
has to be stopped one way or another.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment