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TOP STORIES
Iran's former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Wednesday
stunned the country by unexpectedly filing to run in the May
presidential election, contradicting a recommendation from the
supreme leader to stay out of the race. Ahmadinejad's decision could
upend an election many believed would be won by moderate President
Hassan Rouhani, who negotiated the nuclear deal with world powers.
Though Rouhani has yet to formally register, many viewed him as a
shoe-in following Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's recommendation
in September for Ahmadinejad to stand down and conservatives'
inability to coalesce around a single candidate. Ahmadinejad's
firebrand style could prove appealing for hard-liners seeking a
tough-talking candidate who can stand up to U.S. President Donald
Trump. His candidacy also could expose the fissures inside Iranian
politics that linger since his contested 2009 re-election, which
brought massive unrest.
The European Union on Tuesday extended until April 2018
sanctions against Iran for "serious human rights
violations", a narrower measure than restrictions the bloc had
already lifted after an international accord on Tehran's nuclear
programme. The EU has pursued rapprochement with Iran since the 2015
nuclear deal, which reversed a decade of hard-hitting Western
financial and trade sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Top EU
officials have been shuttling in and out of Tehran since, often
accompanied by large European business delegations. But the bloc has
also extended by a year its travel ban and an asset freeze on 82
Iranian people and one entity, as well as a ban on exports to Iran of
equipment for monitoring telecommunications and other gear that
"might be used for internal repression."
A group of Republican lawmakers is pushing the Trump
administration to investigate and unmask a company that may have
violated Iran sanctions laws in the same way as Chinese mobile-phone
maker ZTE Corp. ZTE agreed last month to pay as much as $1.2 billion
after pleading guilty to shipping U.S.-origin products to Iran in
violation of U.S. laws restricting the sale of American technology to
the country. In a letter Tuesday, Republican Congressman Robert
Pittenger of North Carolina, Alabama's Mike Rogers and eight other
lawmakers, called on Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to probe the
actions of an unidentified company that ZTE has said also evaded U.S.
export controls.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Any new US action in Syria "will not go
unanswered", Iran's Defence Minister Hossein Dehgan warned
Tuesday after America threatened to follow up a strike last week with
more attacks. The United States last week fired a volley of cruise
missiles at a Syrian airbase in response to an alleged chemical
weapons attack that killed 87 civilians in a rebel-held town. The
White House on Monday warned that further use of chemical weapons or
chlorine-laden barrel bombs could bring more US military retaliation.
"The Americans will have to pay a heavy price if they repeat
their action and they must know that their actions will not go
unanswered," Dehgan said during a telephone conversation with
Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu. Dehgan accused American leaders of
lying by saying they wanted to "fight terrorists".
SYRIA CONFLICT
The defense ministers of Russia and Iran have spoken on
the phone to discuss coordination in Syria. In their Tuesday
conversation, Russia's Sergei Shoigu and Iran's Hossein Dehghan
denounced the U.S. strike on a Syrian air base as a violation of
international law. The Russian Defense Ministry noted in a statement
that the two ministers said the Islamic State group and other
extremists had profited from the U.S. attack. The phone call comes as
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson arrived in Moscow for talks set
to be focused on Syria. Russia has rejected the U.S. accusations
against the Syrian government for launching a chemical attack on Khan
Sheikhoun in northern Syria. It has claimed that civilians there were
exposed to toxic agents from a rebel arsenal that was struck by
Syrian warplanes.
Iran's foreign minister restated Tehran's stance on the
establishment of an international fact-finding mission to probe the
recent chemical attack in Syria, condemning the US strike on a Syrian
airbase that purportedly came in response to the gas attack. Mohammad
Javad Zarif discussed the issue on Tuesday in separate phone calls
with his counterparts from Italy, Turkey and Kuwait, namely Paolo
Gentiloni Silveri, Mevlut Cavusoglu and Sheikh Sabah Al-Khalid Al
Sabah respectively, and also UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres,
IRNA reported. He had also held similar talks with EU foreign policy
chief, Federica Mogherini, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov as
well as his Omani, Algerian and Syrian counterparts on Monday. The
conversations between the top officials revolved around the recent
chemical assault in Syria, the US reaction and other issues of the
region.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
A notorious gangster who was arrested in Pakistan last
year was taken into military custody Wednesday early morning apparently
for leaking sensitive information to Iran, the Pakistan Army has
announced. According to a news report, Uzair Baloch has been arrested
in accordance with the Pakistan Army Act. Uzair was arrested outside
Karachi in January last year in what the paramilitary force said was
a raid. The court had then handed him over to the police on remand. A
JIT formed to probe the case in May 2016 said Uzair had allegedly
worked for an Iranian intelligence agency, and had recommended that
the head of the outlawed Peoples Amn Committee be tried by a military
court for "espionage". According to the JIT report, Uzair
was involved in "espionage activities by providing secret
information regarding army installations and officials to foreign
agents (Iranian intelligence officers) which is a violation of the
Official Secret Act 1923".
In their final statement, the foreign minister also
requested Iran's help to fight terrorism in the region. "We want
Iran to play a constructive role in the region through support for
political solutions, reconciliation and peace in Syria, Iraq and
Yemen and other regions....and cooperation in the campaign against
the spread of terrorism and extremism," part of the statement
said, according to a translation of the statement posted on the IRNA
Persian website. Also on Monday Italian Foreign Minister Angelino
Alfano discussed the situation in Syria in a telephone phone call
with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. Italy's Foreign
Ministry said in a statement on Monday that Zarif repeated Tehran's
condemnation of the "unacceptable use of chemical weapons"
in a Syrian town last week. The statement said Alfano urged Iran to
use its influence with the Syrian government "to avoid new
attacks, completely eliminate chemical weapons and assure a
cease-fire."
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
President Hassan Rouhani reiterated the readiness to
work toward a detente with Saudi Arabia, in a sign of goodwill in the
Islamic Republic's foreign policy. "Iran has been striving to
engage in better relations with other regional countries. Our ties
with neighbors, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan,
Kazakhstan, Russia, Armenia, Turkey, Iraq and other surrounding
countries, even Kuwait and Oman in the south, have improved,"
the president was quoted as saying by his official website." Our
policy revolves around efforts to promote relations with our
neighbors and even with Saudi Arabia. If they [Saudis] are ready, we
are also ready to help mend the fences." He made the
announcement at a press conference in Tehran on Monday. The chief
executive stressed the need to build on the progress made toward the
restoration of hajj ties and called on the Saudi side to cease its
airstrikes against Yemen.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Candidates began registering on Tuesday for Iran's May
19 presidential election with the clerical establishment hoping for a
high turnout to shore up its legitimacy amidst widespread instability
in the Middle East. The Islamic Republic regards the election in part
as a show of defiance against renewed U.S. pressure under President
Donald Trump, particularly after his missile attack last week on
Iran's regional ally Syria. President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate who
engineered Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers that secured a
removal of international financial and trade sanctions against
Tehran, is expected to seek re-election but faces a stiff challenge
from hardline conservative Ebrahim Raisi. Discontent has risen over
steep rises in consumer prices and stubbornly high unemployment, with
many Iranians struggling to make ends meet, despite the lifting of
international sanctions that Rouhani had said would revive the
economy.
Usually in the weeks before Nowruz, the Iranian New
Year, downtown Tehran is jammed with traffic as shoppers pick up
gifts in the brightly lighted shops surrounding the British and
German embassies. But this year, the streets were noticeably quieter,
the popular clothing and home appliance stores reporting much less
business around the holiday in March. "Compared to last year,
our sales were down at least 10%," said Mehdi Mosavi, 27,
standing idle in his father's menswear shop. "In fact, in the
past five years our sales have been plunging." The ongoing
financial crunch in Iran, always the No. 1 topic on many Tehran residents'
minds, has taken on added significance ahead of next month's
presidential election, a test of voters' support for President Hassan
Rouhani's efforts to stabilize an economy battered by international
sanctions and official mismanagement.
Iran's former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has
described comments by the supreme leader suggesting he not run in
May's presidential election as "just advice." Ahmadinejad
made the comments at a Wednesday news conference after stunning
election officials by registering. Ahmadinejad described his
registering for the election as helping his former Vice President
Hamid Baghaei, a close confidant. Baghaei registered alongside
Ahmadinejad on Wednesday. Ahmadinejad previously said he wasn't going
to run after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei advised him not
to. But many hard-liners in Iran seek a tough-talking candidate to
rally around who can stand up to U.S. President Donald Trump. Iran's
moderate President Hassan Rouhani, who negotiated the nuclear deal
with world powers, is expected to run for re-election.
Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has defied
the advice of the Islamic Republic's supreme leader and registered to
run again for the nation's presidency. While the hard-line showman's
candidacy still would need to be approved by authorities, his
entering the race could upend politics in the country of 80 million
people and affect global affairs. Here's why it matters: INTERNAL
POLITICS: Ahmadinejad's decision runs directly counter to advice
offered in September by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
who has final say over all state matters. While Ahmadinejad described
that directive as "only advice," his decision challenges
Khamenei's authority. Ahmadinejad's 2009 re-election sparked massive
internal unrest. Coming back to the political stage now could reopen
those wounds.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
A consensus has developed in Washington, DC, for some
"pushback" against Iran. Democrats and Republicans would be
well-advised to learn from the Cold War: Don't compromise the battle
on the ground for fear of compromising arms control. We should
contain and roll back Iran and its growing army of proxy militias. We
should target the clerical regime's Achilles' heel - popular disgust
with theocracy. Human rights ought to be a priority for American Iran
policy. The Green Revolt, which erupted in Iran in 2009 after a
disputed presidential election, may be a faded memory for many in
Washington, but it continues to haunt Iran. Contrary to the accepted
wisdom of the Obama administration, the disturbances of that summer
posed a serious threat to the Islamist order. In a 2013 speech,
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei admitted that the Green
Movement brought the regime to the "edge of the cliff."
U.S. President Donald Trump, with the apparent support
of the Republican Senate, appears poised to unveil new targeted
sanctions on Iran in the coming days. While the details of the
sanctions are unclear, the administration's acknowledgment and
willingness to act strongly against Iran is a turning point for the
Middle East. Indeed, Trump's administration has a grand opportunity
to take a nuanced and holistic approach to Iran, strategically
addressing Iran's regional behavior, while remaining committed to the
promises America has made under the terms of the nuclear deal. The latest
round of sanctions would continue a trend of tough talk against Iran
that has characterized the Trump administration's first two months,
and represent a marked departure from the softer, more conciliatory
efforts of the previous administration.
When the rebellious Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called
on the Syrian president to step down from power, many were taken by
surprise. The prevailing belief is that Shiites all back the Syrian
regime and support its rule, and that what is happening in Syria is a
sectarian war between Shiites and Sunnis. It shouldn't have come as a
surprise when Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr called on Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad to relinquish power, as other Shiite leaders
have previously also criticized the Assad regime and Shiite militias
for him. On April 8, Sadr called on Assad to relinquish power,
saying, "It would be fair for President Bashar al-Assad to
resign and step down in love for Syria, to spare it the woes of war
and terrorism. The rule would thus be handed over to influential
popular parties capable of taking a stand against terrorism and
preserving Syria's sovereignty as soon as possible. This would
constitute a historic, heroic decision before it's too late." In
fact, Sadr's stance on the Syrian regime is not new, as other clerics
have criticized the Syrian regime for its atrocities against its own
people. They have also criticized Shiite militias for backing Assad
in the fight against the Syrian opposition.
It was just after sunrise on April 7 when the news of an
American missile attack on Syria reached Tehran. At first,
information about what precisely transpired was limited, yet the attack
was received in the Iranian capital as a message from Washington to
all parties fighting along the forces of Syria's defiant President
Bashar al-Assad that the grace period given to all involved in the
war-torn country by the United States had come to an end. In fact,
the Syrian crisis seemed for a few months to have had some rules of
engagement when it comes to major incidents like the one that
occurred at the Shayrat air base near Palmyra, but this time the
whole scene was a shock, given US President Donald Trump's previous
statements with regard to Syria and the region in general. As such,
those in Tehran who spoke to Al-Monitor see the missile attack as
closer to political maneuvering than a complete change in strategy.
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