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TOP STORIES
The punitive American missile strike on Syria for the
chemical weapons attack a week ago brought Syria's most important
backers, Russia and Iran, publicly closer together - whether the
Iranians want to be or not. Far from accepting the Trump
administration's version of the chemical weapons assault, the
Iranians joined the Russians in rejecting it and doubling down on
their expressions of support for President Bashar al-Assad of Syria.
Nonetheless, Iran and Russia do not see eye to eye on everything in a
relationship shaped by mistrust, a legacy of Iranian resentment of
Russia's historical expansionism and Soviet-era attempts at
domination. Iranian political analysts say there has been no sign
that Iran is prepared to take one key step on Syria: granting
Russia's air force full access to Iranian air bases. Such a move
would greatly increase Russia's firepower and maneuvering space in
Syria, and it would pose a new challenge for United States aircraft
in the region.
President Donald Trump's decision to launch missiles
into Syria risked raising tensions with Iran, a key backer of Syrian
President Bashar Assad in a conflict with dangerously blurry battle
lines. Tehran has condemned the missile attack on the Shayrat
airfield, and officials have raised the possibility of consequences.
The friction underscores a challenge for Washington, which has long
supported opposition groups fighting Assad and his Iranian allies
without joining the fray itself. Deeper U.S. involvement in Syria
means greater chances of direct conflict with an often unpredictable
and aggressive Iranian foe. Retaliatory measures by Iran could have
ripple effects in the region, targeting everything from U.S. Navy
warships to U.S.-allied Arab governments. Iran could also use
Hezbollah and other Shiite militias to hit American forces fighting
the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria, or attack the many U.S.
allies in the region.
In the first few weeks of the Trump administration, some
senior figures began floating a new plan: President Trump's improved
relations with Moscow would help the White House force a split
between Russia and Iran, both staunch allies of Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad. "If there's a wedge to be driven between Russia
and Iran, we're willing to explore that," said a senior
administration official to the Wall Street Journal's Jay Solomon in
February about the "emerging strategy." But a few weeks
later, it's clear that the White House has neither the diplomatic
savvy nor the conditions on the ground needed to create such a wedge.
The American airstrikes launched last week against a Syrian airfield
has ratcheted up the tension between the United States and Russia.
The strike was intended to deliver a "message" to Assad and
his allies that the United States will no longer tolerate chemical
weapons attacks on civilians, but it has also rallied Assad's patrons
around him.
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
Congress should as soon as possible consider a bill that
slaps sanctions on Iran over its illicit non-nuclear activities,
Democratic lawmakers who supported the 2015 Iran nuclear deal told
THE WEEKLY STANDARD. Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Bob
Corker said during a hearing last week that the bill had hit some
delays, citing "concerns about how the European Union might
react and [Iranian] elections that are coming up." A Corker aide
specified to TWS on Thursday that the bill was being held up by a
Democratic objection. Maryland senator Ben Cardin, the committee's
top Democrat, denied that the measure had been delayed over concerns
about Iran's May presidential election. He said he was working to get
more support for the bill and had "been meeting with a lot of
different groups." Asked whether he knew of any Democratic
objections, Cardin said, "You have to ask the Democrats. ... I
don't know." Multiple Democratic co-sponsors of the measure
advocated for advancing the legislation-and fast.
President Trump should cancel airplane sales to Iranian
airlines that facilitate terrorism, a pair of Republican lawmakers
urged Monday. "Iran's commercial airlines have American blood on
their hands," Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Rep. Peter Roskam,
R-Ill., wrote in a letter to Trump. A government decision to block
the aircraft sales would provoke an uproar at home and abroad. It
would cost Boeing, which has inked a pair of deals to sell 110 to
Iran-based airlines, about $20 billion. It could deter American and
European businesses from investing in Iran, which the regime's
leaders have argued amounts to violation of the nuclear agreement
that former President Barack Obama's team negotiated.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Hyosung Corp., South Korea's leading chemical and
textile company, is accelerating its foray into Iran, a country rich
in natural gas and oil reserves and dubbed as the gateway to other
markets in the Middle East, Europe and Africa. According to
chemical industry sources on Sunday, Hyosung recently signed a memorandum
of understanding (MoU) with Iran's state-run National Petrochemical
Company in the business of polypropylene (PP), thermoplastic polymer
used in making plastic products and home appliance, products. The
Korean company said it has been in talks with its Iranian counterpart
to determine the feasibility of its PP business in the country, but
has not made any conclusion yet. Industry experts expect
Hyosung looking to expand its offshore manufacturing network would
set up a PP production base in Iran. The company has inked an
agreement with Vietnamese government to build a PP plant at a cost of
$336 million in February last year.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Russia and Iran have issued a joint call for an
"unbiased investigation" into the chemical weapons incident
which provoked Donald Trump to launch missiles at an airbase in
Syria. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Iranian counterpart
Mohammad Javad Zarif agreed to make the call on Monday while
denouncing the US attack on the Syrian airbase as "an act of
aggression against a sovereign nation". It comes as the UK and
US prepare to lobby allies at the G7 in Italy for a tough statement
against the Assad regime in Syria and Russia's backing for it. China
scorns Trump with call for US to 'preserve Syria's sovereignty' Since
Mr. Trump ordered the launch of 59 Tomahawk missiles at the airfield
in Syria's Homs province, the US and UK on one side, and Russia and
Iran on the other, have made reciprocal threats of further military
action.
Lt. Col. Ralph Peters (Ret.) said this morning that
retaliation for the U.S. missile strikes on a Syrian air base is most
likely to come from Iran. The Fox News strategic analyst discussed
with Shannon Bream the overall effectiveness of the strikes, which
came in response to Syrian forces' use of chemical weapons against
civilians. Peters noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin
was warned that the missile attack was coming, but didn't even try to
stop it. "He knew he couldn't," said Peters, noting
that Iran sees itself as "on a roll" in the region and may
lash out in Iraq. He warned of Iran directing suicide attacks
at U.S. forces in Iraq or taking Americans prisoner as retaliation.
YEMEN CRISIS
Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi said militias
behind the coup in Yemen have "sold themselves to the Iranian
project which wants to control Yemen and target the entire
region." Iran is sending advanced weapons and military advisers
to Yemen's rebel Houthi movement, stepping up support for its ally in
a civil war whose outcome could sway the balance of power in the
Middle East, regional and Western sources have recently said. A
senior Iranian official told Reuters news agency last month that
Major General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Qods Force - the
external arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - met top IRGC
officials in Tehran to look at ways to "empower" the Houthis.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The son of late Grand Ayatollah Hossein
Ali Montazeri, who publicly condemned the mass executions of
political prisoners in 1988, has criticized the newly announced
presidential candidacy of Ebrahim Raisi. In an interview with the
Center for Human Rights in Iran, Ahmed Montazeri noted that Raisi,
who was part of the four-man special tribunal that ordered the mass
executions, "does not have a day of experience in
government." "It sounds more like a joke," he told the
Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI) on April 8, 2017. "We
have many experienced politicians from various factions and some of
them have more than a decade of experience in government."
"Mr. Raisi's candidacy is an insult to all of them and an insult
to the people of Iran," added Ahmad Montazeri, who released an
audio recording of his father's condemnation of the tribunal in 2016.
The number of executions worldwide dropped by 37 percent
in 2016 compared to the year before, mainly because Iran hanged fewer
people, Amnesty International said in its 2016 global review of the
death penalty published on Tuesday... At least 856 executions were
carried out across the MENA region in 2016, a drop of 28 percent from
2015 which had seen a sharp increase from previous years. Iran
executed at least 567 people alone, accounting for 66 percent of all
the confirmed executions in the region.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran has opened registration for those hoping to run in
the May 19 presidential race. The official IRNA news agency said
Tuesday that prospective candidates can register through the end of
Saturday. They will then be vetted by the Guardian Council, a
clerical body that will announce a final list of candidates by April
27. President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate, is eligible to run for
another term. Ebrahim Raisi, a hard-line cleric close to Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Hamid Baghaei, a close ally of
former hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have announced plans
to run. The election is expected to serve as a referendum on the 2015
nuclear agreement with world powers, under which Iran agreed to curb
its uranium enrichment in exchange for the lifting of international
sanctions.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
In July 17, 2016, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme
leader, turned 77. Rumors that he suffers from cancer have circulated
for over a decade, and in 2014, the state-run news agency published
photos of him recovering from prostate surgery. Although Khamenei's
prognosis remains closely guarded, the Iranian government is evidently
treating his succession with urgency. In December 2015, Ali Akbar
Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president and a kingmaker, broached the
usually taboo subject when he publicly admitted that a council within
the Assembly of Experts, the body that selects the supreme leader,
was already vetting potential successors. And last March, after new
members of the assembly were elected to an eight-year term, Khamenei
himself called the probability that they would have to select his
replacement "not low."
Iran's relationship with Russia has always been
characterized by a mix of hope and dread. While one faction in Tehran
wants to expand ties, another faction has been traditionally
concerned about Moscow's trustworthiness. The Syrian crisis has,
however, brought the two countries closer together given their shared
support for President Bashar al-Assad. The unanticipated US military
strikes in Syria have opened a new chapter in the conflict that could
eliminate disagreements between Iran and Russia regarding the future
of Syria. Despite the current collaboration, there is constant
concern that Russia might turn its back on Iran for a better deal, or
that Moscow might maneuver in Syria in a manner that will not safeguard
Iran's interests in the region.
The Qatari Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies
(ACRPS) on March 14 issued the 2016 results of the Arab Index, its
annual survey of Arab public opinion. The center dispatched 840
Doha-based researchers to Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia,
Egypt, Sudan, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and
Palestine to conduct polls last Sept. 7-22 on various issues,
including how Palestinians view the foreign policies adopted by
Middle Eastern and international powers. According to the survey,
Palestinians have a negative impression of Iranian policy in the
region, especially in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Libya, and of its stance
toward the Palestinian cause. Ahmad Hussein, a Palestinian researcher
at ACRPS, told Al-Monitor, "The survey showed that Palestinians
have a negative view toward Iran, which contributes to the region's
crises and fuels sectarian and ethnic disputes in order to play a
more effective, influential role. Seventy percent of Palestinians
believe Iranian policy toward the Arab region is negative."
The United States military took decisive action early
Thursday morning through launching a total of 59 precision guided
Tomahawk cruise missiles targeting a Syrian airbase north of
Damascus. This site was believed to be used by Bashar Assad to carry
out a horrific chemical weapons attack last Tuesday, leaving more
than 500 killed and injured in Idlib Province of northwest Syria.
Entire families were devastated, such as Abdulhamid al-Yussof, who
lost 25 members of his family, including his wife and 9-month twin
babies, Ahmed and Aya. US President Donald Trump ordered the military
strike, carried out by two US warships, the USS Porter and USS Ross,
prior to his meeting with the visiting Chinese President Xi Jinping
in Florida, possibly also sending a message also to North Korea about
its nuclear ambitions.
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