Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Eye on Iran: Iran Could Quit Nuclear Deal In 'Hours' If New U.S. Sanctions Imposed: Rouhani


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Iran could abandon its nuclear agreement with world powers "within hours" if the United States imposes any more new sanctions, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on Tuesday. "If America wants to go back to the experience (of imposing sanctions), Iran would certainly return in a short time -- not a week or a month but within hours -- to conditions more advanced than before the start of negotiations," Rouhani told a session of parliament broadcast live on state television. Iran says new sanctions that the United States has imposed on it breach the agreement it reached in 2015 with the United States, Russia, China and three European powers in which it agreed to curb its nuclear work in return for the lifting of most sanctions. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on six Iranian firms in late July for their role in the development of a ballistic missile program after Tehran launched a rocket capable of putting a satellite into orbit.


Iran's president issued a direct threat to the West on Tuesday, claiming his country is capable of revitalizing its nuclear program within hours and quickly bringing it to even more advanced levels than when Iran reached a deal with world powers that limited its ability to produce nuclear weapons. Hassan Rouhani's remarks to lawmakers follow the Iranian parliament's move earlier this week to increase spending on the country's ballistic missile program and the foreign operations of its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. The bill - and Rouhani's comments - are seen as a direct response to the new U.S. legislation earlier this month that imposed mandatory penalties on people involved in Iran's ballistic missile program and anyone who does business with them. The U.S. legislation also applies terrorism sanctions to the Revolutionary Guard and enforces an existing arms embargo. If Washington continues with "threats and sanctions" against Iran, Rouhani said in parliament on Tuesday, Tehran could easily restart the nuclear program.


An Iranian drone came within 1,000 feet (300 meters) of a U.S. aircraft carrier while it was in international waters in the Gulf conducting flight operations, a spokesman for the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command said on Monday.  A drone "conducted an unsafe and unprofessional approach" as it passed by the USS Nimitz without navigation lights late on Sunday, said spokesman Lieutenant Ian McConnaughey.  Controllers for the drone did not respond to radio requests for communications, he said.  U.S. officials have complained of numerous unsafe and unprofessional interactions between the United States and Iranian maritime forces this year. Last Tuesday, a U.S. official said an Iranian drone had approached a U.S. fighter jet as it prepared to land on the aircraft carrier. The official said at the time that it was the 13th such incident in 2017. McConnaughey said the lack of lights on the drone in the latest incident could have caused a collision and violated "international maritime customs and laws."

IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL


Iran's withdrawal from the agreement on Tehran's nuclear program is highly unlikely, this is not in the interests of either Tehran or other major players, except for the US, Vladimir Fitin, Head of the Middle East Center at the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISS), told TASS. He thus commented on remarks by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani concerning Tehran's readiness to quit the nuclear deal within hours, if the US continues to expand sanctions. "I believe this is a traditional exchange of belligerent statements with a certain region or country typical of the new US administration," the expert noted. "We just need to say that, with the advent of the Trump administration, the Americans designated Iran as its chief enemy and opponent and are trying to deliberately translate all that into reality." As for Iran's response, Fitin drew attention to the fact that Tehran decided to earmark additional $520 million for the development of its missile program. 

U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS


On Monday the U.S. Naval Forces Central Command said that an Iranian drone had come within 1,000 feet (300 meters) of a U.S. aircraft carrier while it was in international waters in the Gulf conducting flight operations. Spokesman Lieutenant Ian McConnaughey said the Iranian drone "conducted an unsafe and unprofessional approach" as it passed by the USS Nimitz without navigation lights late on Sunday. Iran's IRGC said in a statement published on Tasnim news agency late on Monday that "it carries out air patrol missions in Iran's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) every day and in accordance with current regulations".


Iranian lawmakers voted to raise spending on the nation's missile program and elite forces, bolstering twin pillars of the security establishment that are at the center of a growing dispute with the U.S. Parliament on Sunday overwhelmingly approved a bill sanctioning an additional 20 trillion rials ($609 million) for Iran's missile program and the Qods Force arm of the Revolutionary Guards. The legislation cited "hostile" U.S. policies against Iran and American "adventurism in the region," according to Tasnim news agency President Donald Trump has expanded sanctions on Iran and swung behind its Gulf rivals since taking office, amid signs he might attempt to sink the 2015 nuclear accord that opened the Islamic Republic for business. The extra funding -- on top of two years of increased defense spending -- serves as a "multifaceted" message, according to Ariane Tabatabai, a senior associate with the Proliferation Prevention Program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

BUSINESS RISK


The latest data released by the Central Bank of Iran show that as oil revenues jumped in the first quarter of the current fiscal year (March 21-June 21), higher spending and lower tax revenues have widened the budget deficit. Overall, the government earned 236.4 trillion rials ($6.2 billion) in revenues during the period under review, up 9.6% year-on-year, according to the CBI report published on its website. The report added that 53% of the projected revenues for the three-month period have been realized. Spending stood at 548.8 trillion rials ($14.4 billion) in Q1, up 48.8% over the first quarter of a year before. The figure is 85% of the expenditure predicted by the government in the budget for the period under review. Revenues associated with the sales of oil, gas condensates and petrochemicals reached 188.9 trillion rials ($4.9 billion)-65% of what the government had expected to earn

TERRORISM


It was a warm summer morning in Tehran when Islamic State militants - some dressed as women - staged a rare attack in the Iranian capital, opening fire at the nation's parliament and outside the shrine of its revolutionary leader. The assault in June, stunning in both its symbolism and execution, left 18 people dead and caught Iranian security forces off-guard. It was the first Islamic State attack in Iran, whose Shiite Muslim majority the militants regard as apostates. In recent months, the Islamic State has stepped up its efforts to target Iran, releasing a stream of propaganda, vowing more bloodshed and boosting recruitment among Iran's minority Sunnis, some of whom carried out the June attack. Iran is a target for the cash, guns and troops it has poured into the battle against the jihadists, whose lightning ascent in Iraq and Syria three years ago threatened Iran's security. Last week, Iranian authorities arrested more than two dozen people they said planned to bomb religious sites with smuggled explosives.

RUSSIA-IRAN COOPERATION


Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed energy projects and the situation in Syria during a telephone call with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, the Kremlin said in a statement on Monday. The Kremlin said the conversation was about "joint projects in the oil and gas, electricity and transport sectors", while some issues on the international agenda were also discussed.


As the Islamic State (IS) has been in steady retreat, Iran and Russia are facing real difficulties sustaining their partnership. Each took advantage of the fight against IS to further its military campaign in Syria. As the military situation shifts in Syria, so does Tehran's once-symbiotic status with Moscow.  Both sides avoid discussing their differences, keeping their critics from making the most of the situation, but both fail to completely conceal the friction. In 2016, Moscow and Tehran jointly shielded Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime from the opposition and sought to preserve the remaining state institutions. In an attempt to freeze the six-year-long civil war, Russia is currently opting for agreements beyond the peace talks in Astana, Kazakhstan - that is, behind Iran's back. Examples include the de-escalation zone in southwest Syria that Russia negotiated with the United States in Amman, Jordan, as well as de-escalation zones in eastern Ghouta and northern Homs, both of which were negotiated in Cairo.

NORTH KOREA-IRAN COOPERATION


Decades of U.S. and U.N. diplomatic dithering and devastatingly disastrous capitulation have enabled North Korea and Iran to collaboratively and separately pose grave and imminent global dangers. The Obama administration's feckless "Iran deal" for example, has freed up lots of cash for Tehran to spend on advanced nuclear warheads and intercontinental delivery rockets that Pyongyang is now capable and eager to provide thanks to equally impotent U.S appeasement policies dating back to the Clinton administration's 1994 "North Korean nuclear deal." Last month, North Korea demonstrated a capability to deliver warheads - potentially including power grid-disrupting nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) devices - over the American mainland. That same month, Iran launched a rocket purportedly designed to place satellites in space. The Obama administration has known but not publicly reported that the hermit kingdom has possessed an ICBM - compatible miniaturized nuclear warhead capability since 2013. 

FOREIGN AFFAIRS


Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri arrived in Ankara on Tuesday morning for talks with top Turkish military and political officials. Heading a military delegation, the top Iranian general is going to hold meetings with Chief of the General Staff of Turkey Hulusi Akar and with Minister of National Defense of Turkey Nurettin Canikli. Major General Baqeri is also scheduled to have a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the official visit. The meetings will reportedly revolve around Iran-Turkey defense ties, the regional developments, cooperation on the border affairs, and the fight against terrorism. Iran and Turkey enjoy cordial bilateral relations. Despite some differences on regional issues, Iran and Turkey are two sides of a trilateral mechanism to maintain ceasefire in certain parts of Syria.

MILITARY MATTERS


Iran is preparing to send a flotilla of warships to the Atlantic Ocean following the announcement of a massive $500 million investment in war spending, according to Iranian leaders, who say the military moves are in response to recent efforts by the United States to impose a package of new economic sanctions on Tehran. The military investment and buildup comes following weeks of tense interactions between Iran and the United States in regional waters, where Iranian military ships have carried out a series of dangerous maneuvers near U.S. vessels. The interactions have roiled U.S. military leaders and prompted tough talk from the Trump administration, which is currently examining potential ways to leave the landmark nuclear deal. Iran's increasingly hostile behavior also follows a little-noticed United Nations report disclosing that Iran has repeatedly violated international accords banning ballistic missile work.


A senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) says the country's Armed Forces will certainly give a severe response to the Daesh Takfiri terrorists and their allies. "The kind of response is up to us and we will determine its type ourselves, but we will definitely do it," Commander of IRGC's Ground Force Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour told IRNA on Monday. He added that the IRGC Ground Forces have been engaged in battles with terrorists backed by the hegemonic powers and Al Saud in southeastern, western, northwestern and southwestern parts of Iran during the recent years, but the country is currently in peace and enjoys "acceptable security." He emphasized that the Daesh Takfiri terrorists attacked Iraq and Syria in recent years with the support of the hegemonic powers and Saudi Arabia, adding, "If they (terrorists) had not been stopped, there would have been no sign of Damascus, Karbala, Najaf and Shiism."

SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS


Reports of potential Iraq-led mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia come as the latter leads the third year of a costly, intractable war across its border in Yemen. A rapprochement with long-time rival Iran, which is backing opposing forces in the Yemen proxy war and in Syria, could ease political and economic pressures on both sides, analysts say. Although the struggle for regional supremacy has long defined Saudi-Iran relations, the extent of the turmoil in neighbouring countries might have led to the realisation that both would benefit from a thaw. "There is a political dilemma where the Saudis are playing a role in Syria and Yemen ... It is straining Riyadh politically and economically, and [in both] places, Iran is playing an important role," said Mahjoob Zweiri, an associate professor of contemporary Middle East history at Qatar University. Oil production is also a factor, he noted.

HUMAN RIGHTS


The Iranian parliament on August 13, 2017 approved a long-awaited amendment to the country's drug law that significantly raises the bar for a mandatory death sentence, Human Rights Watch said today. The amendment, which the parliamentary judiciary commission revised four times, is a step in the right direction despite being more limited than a December 2016 draft amendment that sought to outlaw the death penalty for most non-violent drug related offenses. Iran has one of the highest rates of documented executions in the world. According to Amnesty International, in 2016 alone, Iran executed at least 567 individuals, including at least two who were children when they allegedly committed their crimes. When submitting the new draft law to the parliament, Hassan Noroozi, the spokesperson for the parliamentary judicial committee, stated that 5,000 people are currently on death row for drug offenses in Iran, the majority between the ages of 20 and 30.


The BBC says an Iranian court order has frozen the local assets of over 150 people associated with its Farsi-language service. A statement from the British broadcaster on Tuesday says those named in the court order, issued from Tehran's Evin prison, include current and former staff, as well as contributors. The BBC says the order bans those named from "selling or buying property, cars and other goods." BBC World Service Director Francesca Unsworth says it's "appalling that anyone should suffer legal or financial consequences because of their association with the BBC." Iranian officials and state media did not immediately report on the order.

DOMESTIC POLITICS


Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his inner circle have been at the center of a storm on the Iranian political stage in recent weeks, with senior aide Hamid Baghaei hurling brazen accusations of rights abuses at the judiciary. Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's inner circle launches a rare and brazen frontal assault on the judiciary. Baghaei, a former vice president for executive affairs, made the accusations on July 26 after being released from 18 days in detention, his second imprisonment without any charge. Law enforcement officers first arrested him in June 2015, only freeing him after seven months. Soon after Baghaei's latest detention, Ahmadinejad slammed the move as a grave injustice and called for his immediate release. In an open letter on July 9, the former president openly accused political rivals of deliberately targeting him and his aides, writing, "They attack us when they quarrel with each other or make peace with each other ... even if they can't settle their scores, again they come to settle their scores with us."


Iran's Spiritual leader Ali Khamenei appointed on Monday Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi as the new chairman of Iran's Expediency Council, a move that means the leader has once again tightened his grip on Iranian decision-making. Khamenei's decision brought to an end seven months of anticipation that followed the death of leader Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani who headed the council for 27 years. The Expediency Council serves as an advisory body for the Supreme Leader and mediates on legislative differences between the Parliament and the oversight Guardian Council. The Council's chairman is directly appointed by the country's supreme leader every five years. On Monday, Khamenei also appointed the new lineup of the 44-member Expediency Council, including 38 political figures.






Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email press@uani.com.

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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