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TOP STORIES
Iran has mocked the U.S. push for inspections of the
country's military sites, calling it a "ridiculous dream that
will never come true." This comes after U.S. officials said last
month that the Trump administration is pushing for inspections of
suspicious Iranian military sites in a bid to test the strength of
the nuclear deal that Tehran struck in 2015 with world powers.
Amid new international sanctions, North Korea's
"No. 2" official embarked on a 10-day visit to Iran, a move
that could result in the two sides expanding their ties. Iran's
official IRNA news agency reported Kim Yong Nam, chairman of the
Supreme Assembly of North Korea, arrived Thursday for the weekend
inauguration ceremony for Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. But given
the head of North Korea's parliament is expected to stay for 10 days
in Iran, the trip is being seen as a front for other purposes,
including expanding military cooperation. At the same time, Pyongyang
is looking for ways to counter sanctions and to boost the hard
currency for the dynastic regime led by Kim Jong Un.
The Iranian mullahcracy has long been
portrayed by supporters of the nuclear deal as a country in flux,
with moderate forces slowly making their way to power at the expense
of the old repressive elite. Yet reality paints a very different
picture. Just as Hassan Rouhani won the endorsement of Iran's supreme
leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for his second term as president on
Thursday, Amnesty International published a report that rips to
shreds the myth of the rise of moderates in Iran. The organization
concluded that rather than taking steps to address the abysmal human
rights situation in the country, conditions have steadily
deteriorated for peaceful activists under the Rouhani presidency.
"Iran's judicial and security bodies have waged a vicious
crackdown against human rights defenders since Hassan Rouhani became
president in 2013, demonizing and imprisoning activists who dare to
stand up for people's rights," Amnesty International said on
Wednesday. "President Rouhani and his administration have so far
failed to take any meaningful steps to stop these abuses. On the
contrary, they have brushed aside reports of abuses."
UANI IN
THE NEWS
As Iranian President Hassan Rouhani begins a second term
on August 5, he faces enormous political, structural and
revolutionary headwinds. During his first term, Rouhani's governing
mantra of prudence and hope proved more rhetorical than real for in
the end, Tehran's crowded power arena hinders rather than facilitates
real change. Three key challenges will confront the diplomat- sheikh
as he sets out to make good on his campaign promises: a supreme
leader who has historically neutralized the plans of presidents and
prime ministers in their second terms; an energized conservative
mullocracy; and an increasingly assertive Washington doubling down on
Tehran's excesses.
It is 11 years since the July War between Israel and
Hezbollah, the political party and Iranian-sponsored militia. During
34 days of fighting, 1,100 Lebanese and 150 Israelis were killed.
Damage to Lebanon's agriculture, fishing and forestry has been
estimated at $280 million by the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.
Unexploded ordnance continues to maim and kill. Israel's strategy in
the 2006 war differed from previous conflicts, during which its targeting
of villages and infrastructure backfired and drove Lebanese citizens
into Hezbollah's arms. In 2006, "Israel wasn't trying to make
civilians suffer any more but its strategy was still highly
destructive in targeted areas, with similar social and economic
effects as the previous operations, but on a larger scale,"
said David Daoud, research analyst on Hezbollah and Lebanon at United
Against Nuclear Iran, a US-based non-profit advocacy group.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
A senior Iranian official said on Saturday that Tehran
will allow no inspection of its military sites... Last week, the AP
reported that Trump administration intends to drum up "foolproof
intelligence" inspections of what is claimed to be suspicious
Iranian military sites in a bid to test the strength of the nuclear
deal that President Donald Trump desperately wants to cancel.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani accused the U.S. of
violating the Iran nuclear deal and stressed the need to continue
building cooperation with the European Union, while being sworn in
for a second term Saturday... EU foreign policy chief Federica
Mogherini, who attended Rouhani's swearing in ceremony in Tehran on
Saturday, said the EU wants to make sure the so-called Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action is fully implemented... Rouhani praised
the progress in Iran-EU relations over the past four years and said
there's room for greater investment in Iran's oil, gas and
petrochemical sectors. Mogherini confirmed that Iran has fully
complied with the nuclear deal.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who was sworn-in for a
second term on Saturday, has accused the United States of trying to
undermine Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers, telling President
Donald Trump that it will be his political suicide. Rouhani, who was
decisively re-elected in May after promising to open Iran to the
world, took the oath of office before parliament in Tehran in the
presence of foreign dignitaries including senior European figures.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iran signed the country's biggest-ever car deal worth
several hundred million dollars with French manufacturer Groupe
Renault on Monday to produce 150,000 cars a year, the latest advance
by a European company into Iran's sizeable consumer market. The €660
million - or $778 million - deal follows the lifting of the U.N. and
European Union sanctions after Iran's 2015 nuclear agreement with world
powers to curb its controversial uranium enrichment program, a
possible pathway to nuclear weapons.
South Korea's SK Engineering & Construction said on
Sunday it had signed a deal with Iran's Tabriz Oil Refining Company
worth $1.6 billion to renovate the Iranian company's refinery
facility. SK E&C said in a statement that the project involves
upgrading Tabriz Oil Refining Company's 110,000-barrels-per-day
refinery, which opened in 1976 and is located in the northwest of
Tehran. Under the agreement, a consortium of SK Engineering &
Construction and Iran's Oil Design Construction Company would finance
and implement the renovation project to increase the refinery's
gasoline and diesel production capacity, according to the statement.
The project is scheduled to be completed within 36 months once the
consortium breaks ground on construction.
Iran's July gas (LPG) exports reached close to 400,000
metric tons (mt), the highest monthly tonnage in 2017. China and
Indonesia were the expanding markets for Iran, providing much of the
boost, Platts reported. Iran still does not have a big capacity for
LPG exports, but in early July it signed an agreement with the world
giant Total for the development of its offshore gas fields, north of
Qatar's well-developed offshore reserves... LPG prices have declined
on the world market. Currently, one mt sells for about $450... But
with relatively low oil prices, any substantial increase in LPG
exports can help boost Iran's income form fossil fuels.
German and Spanish senior officials in separate meetings
with [Iranian Foreign Minister] Zarif on Sun. expressed their
respective country's resolve to back [the] JCPOA in line with
expanding cooperation with Iran.
In separate meetings with Iran's FM Zarif on Sun.,
Italian and Bosnian officials stressed their respective countries' keen
interest in developing economic relations with the Islamic Republic.
TERRORISM
A high-level delegation of Hamas leaders touched down in
Tehran on Friday to pay respects at the swearing-in ceremony of
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani, a further sign of rapprochement
between the two... Iran - a key backer of Hamas in the past - fell
out with the group's leadership because they failed to back Bashar
Al-Assad in the Syrian civil war. However recent internal elections
of the terror organization's leadership team saw officials with a
more Iranian-inclined worldview ushered in, although the group is
also reported to have dramatically boosted their engagement with
Egypt, which remains antagonistic towards Tehran.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Over the past decade and a half, the United States has
taken out Iran's chief enemies on two of its borders, the Taliban
government in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Iran has used
that to its advantage, working quietly and relentlessly to spread its
influence. In Iraq, it has exploited a chaotic civil war and the
American withdrawal to create a virtual satellite state. In
Afghanistan, Iran aims to make sure that foreign forces leave
eventually, and that any government that prevails will at least not
threaten its interests, and at best be friendly or aligned with them.
A gallery of dictators and war
criminals joined representatives from Western democracies - including
the EU's top foreign policy representative, Federica Mogherini - in
Tehran on Friday, as Iran inaugurated President Hassan Rouhani for a
second term in office. At the top of the list of arrivals was
Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe - whose serial human rights abuses
led the European Union to place a travel ban on him in 2002.
Alongside Mugabe was the president of the Presidium of the
Supreme People's Assembly of North Korea, Kim Yong-nam - a key
lieutenant of dictator Kim Jong-Un... Terrorists present at the
inauguration included Sheikh Naim Qassem, the deputy
secretary-general of Hezbollah - Iran's Shia proxy in Lebanon and Syria.
Western dignitaries present included the former British chancellor of
the exchequer, Norman Lamont, who represented the British government,
and UK parliamentarian Richard Bacon, the chairman of the
Britain-Iran Parliamentary Friendship Group.
In light of new US sanctions on Iran
and Russia, the two countries have vowed to enhance their
already-deep military cooperation, according to state-run media of
both countries. According to Russia Today, Russia's Deputy Prime
Minister, Dmitry Rogozin held talks with Iranian Defense Minister
Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan. The officials reportedly discussed
new supplies of Russian arms to Iran. They agreed upon the
implementation of deals boosting military and technological
cooperation, according to Iran's Fars news agency.
Qatar reportedly sent its Minister of
Economy and Trade, Ahmed bin Jassem Al-Thani, as its representative
during the inauguration of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's second
term in office. Qatar's participation in Tehran comes in the shadow
of its crisis with a number of Gulf and Arab states calling for a
series of demands, including a suspension of relations with Iran as
well as halting its financial support for terrorist groups across the
region.
Indonesia is seeking a commitment from
the Iranian government over an agreement signed by state-owned energy
company Pertamina and its Iranian counterpart, National Iran Oil
Company (NIOC), in August last year on the exploration of the
Ab-Teymour and Mansouri oil and gas fields in Iran. Pertamina and
NIOC signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to carry out a
preliminary study on the oil and gas fields.
MILITARY MATTERS
Iran's Revolutionary Guards clashed with a group of
militants in the northwest of the country, killing two of them, the
Tasnim news site reported on Sunday. Brigadier General Mohammad
Pakpour, the commander of the Guards ground forces, said that four
militants were also wounded and some military material was
confiscated, according to Tasnim. The report said the clashes took
place in West Azarbaijan province, which borders both Turkey and
Iraq, but did not specify when the incident took place. Clashes with
Iranian Kurdish militant groups based in Iraq are common in the area.
Last month, the Revolutionary Guards engaged in heavy clashes with
gunmen on the border with Iraq, killing three of them and sustaining
one fatality, the Guards said in a statement.
IRAQ CRISIS
In a remarkable
shift of events, the Iraqi Ministry of Defense added on July 20 a
number of Al-Abbas Combat Division troops to its ranks following
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi's approval, thus making the brigade
the first Shiite faction in the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) to
partially join the Iraqi regular forces. This step underscores the
divergence in views and trends among the PMU Shiite factions, which
have different viewpoints on the future of the PMU and its
relationship with the Iraqi state. While some of them entrench their
Iraqi orientation, others are keen to deepen their relations with
Iran and be part of its regional plans.
Leading Iraqi Shi'ite clerics are calling for the
disbandment of powerful Iran-backed Shi'ite militias now that the
nation has retaken its second-largest city, Mosul, from the Islamic
State extremist group. Muqtada al-Sadr, an anti-American firebrand
with a large following among Baghdad's urban poor, on August 4 called
for the disbandment of Hashed al-Shaabi, a paramilitary organization
with an estimated 122,000 troops dominated by Iran-backed Shi'ite
militias. Sadr was speaking to thousands of supporters in Baghdad
after a rare visit over the weekend to Iran's archrival Saudi Arabia,
where he met with the Saudi crown prince.
Iran has declared its opposition to the independence
referendum to be held on September 25th in Iraqi Kurdistan. With an
8m strong Kurdish population of its own, Iran will be concerned over
the possible crossborder spread of separatist sentiment. Given the
fractious nature of Iraqi Kurdish politics and significant
international opposition to independence, a full split from Iraq
still looks unlikely. However, with a yes vote probable in the
referendum, Iraqi Kurdish tensions will rise with both the Iraqi
government and Iranian-backed Shia militias in Iraq.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The British husband of a woman
imprisoned in an Iranian jail has appealed to the Foreign Office to
raise her case during a visit to Tehran this week. Nazanin
Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who holds British and Iranian passports, has
decorated her cell with pictures from her infant daughter after being
sentenced to five years in jail on secret charges last year, her
husband told the Guardian. Richard Ratcliffe, an accountant who lives
in north London, hopes that the Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt
will hold talks with senior Iranian politicians about the 38-year-old
charity worker, who was arrested in April last year.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's soccer federation condemned two Iranians who play
for a Greek team on Friday for participating in a match against an
Israeli team, Iranian media reported... Israel and Iran are bitter
adversaries and traditionally, Iranian athletes refrain from playing
Israelis. Iran's government usually rewards such behavior.
It appears that the trend of talented students
emigrating from Iran has continued under the presidency of Hassan
Rouhani, too. On July 11, 2016, the head of the exceptional talent
group of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution in an
interview with Tasnim news agency noted a 16% increase in the number
of talented students emigrating from Iran in the academic year 2014-15.
Members of the Iranian parliament have found themselves
under fire for "strange" behaviour involving the EU's top
diplomat, Federica Mogherini. She was in Iran for President Hassan
Rouhani's inauguration on Saturday when she found herself the centre
of attention on the parliament floor. Photos showed Ms Mogherini
surrounded by a number of male MPs, taking photos. Many social media
users criticised the MPs, ridiculing them or labelling their actions
"humiliating".
OPINION & ANALYSIS
Since the 1980s, Tehran has worked diligently to create
the infrastructure for both overt and covert operations in the
Western Hemisphere. Araki's visit is part of a well-orchestrated plan
to indoctrinate and radicalize existing Shi'a communities while
seeking new acolytes among local sympathizers of Iran's political
agenda. Brazil is not the only target of Iran's efforts. Across the
region, Iranian preachers and their local enablers have presented
themselves as advocates of human rights and social justice to gain
footholds among disenfranchised and marginalized communities in
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, Mexico, and Peru. Relying on
allies such as Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, Iran has
established forward operating bases for the spread of their
propaganda.
Tillerson and national security adviser H.R. McMaster
argue that if Trump decides not to certify Iranian compliance, rather
than scuttle the deal he can work to improve it and increase pressure
on Iran in other ways, according to sources involved in the discussions...
If Trump is determined to get the United States out of the Iran deal,
nobody can stop him. But if the majority of his national security
team gets its way, Trump will repeat what he did with Cuba: make
minimal changes to the policy, then declare he has undone Obama's
"terrible deal" and fulfilled a campaign promise. And if
Trump can't bring himself to certify Iran's compliance anymore, he
should at least minimize the chances his decision will cause a
diplomatic crisis and distract the United States from the mission of
combating Iran's other nefarious activities.
America's policy makers, especially those who still
support the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, should take careful note. If
Tehran's long collusion with Pyongyang on ballistic missiles is even
partly mirrored in the nuclear field, the Iranian threat is nearly as
imminent as North Korea's. Whatever the extent of their collaboration
thus far, Iran could undoubtedly use its now-unfrozen assets and cash
from oil-investment deals to buy nuclear hardware from North Korea,
one of the world's poorest nations. One lesson from Pyongyang's
steady nuclear ascent is to avoid making the same mistake with other
proliferators, who are carefully studying its successes. Statecraft
should mean grasping the implications of incipient threats and
resolving them before they become manifest. With North Korea and
Iran, the U.S. has effectively done the opposite. Proliferators
happily exploit America's weakness and its short attention span. They
exploit negotiations to gain the most precious asset: time to resolve
the complex scientific and technological hurdles to making
deliverable nuclear weapons... For decades the U.S. has opposed
attempts by any state without nuclear weapons to develop them.
Washington has consistently failed to achieve that objective, and the
world has become increasingly nuclearized. Stopping North Korea and
Iran may be the last chance to act before nuclear weapons become a
global commonplace.
Systematic mishandling of national resources, widespread
corruption, allocation of billions of dollars for military conflicts
abroad and low foreign investment due to the anti-Western policies of
the regime, are among the reasons Iran has become increasingly poorer
over the past four decades. Neither the government nor the extremely
rich entities under the control of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei -- including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which
has created an economic empire -- report exactly how they spend their
budgets and revenues.
In the past decade, the Islamic Republic has
consistently sought to expand its influence in Africa. Former Iranian
president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made significant efforts to enhance
Tehran's relations with African nations to offset Iran's increasing
isolation by the West. While the Rouhani administration's priority has
been to improve Iran's relations with the West, it has not forgotten
Africa and sees it as an important region for Iran's soft power and
hard power strategies. In a meeting with Benin's new ambassador to
Tehran Naim Akibo in June, Rouhani said his administration seeks to
boost its relations with African countries, including Benin, and
blamed world powers for instability and extremism engulfing the
Middle East and Africa. Similarly, Zarif stressed in a meeting with
his Sierra Leonean counterpart in May that Africa was of paramount
significance for Iran in the political, economic and cultural terms.
Let's assume President Trump decides the Iran Deal is
not a good thing for the United States, which is becoming clearer
every day, and he wants to exit What can he actually do? The answer
is: Pretty much anything he wants. Because President Obama flagrantly
refused to treat this treaty as a treaty, it has very little legal
standing. If he is willing to take the political and diplomatic heat,
President Trump could take it out onto the West Lawn at the White
House, douse it with lighter fluid and burn it. If he chooses a more
conventional method, he has several options and requirements both
domestically and at the UN, where President Obama expanded the Joint
Coordinated Plan of Action (JCPOA) into a UN Security Council
resolution.
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