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TOP STORIES
President Donald Trump plans to "decertify"
the Iran nuclear deal next week, declaring the Obama-era pact not in
US interests and launching a congressional review period on the
accord, according to two senior US officials. Trump is tentatively
scheduled to unveil his plan during remarks a week from Thursday,
though one official cautioned the timing could shift.
President Trump is expected to announce next week that
he will "decertify" the international nuclear deal with
Iran, saying it is not in the national interest of the United States
and kicking the issue to a reluctant Congress, people briefed on the
White House strategy said Thursday. The move would mark the first
step in a process that could eventually result in the resumption of
U.S. sanctions against Iran, potentially derailing a deal limiting
Iran's nuclear activities reached in 2015 with the United States and
five other nations.
President Donald Trump is weighing a new strategy to
confront Iran's nuclear ambitions that would leave a 2015 agreement
intact for now but ask Congress to toughen a law overseeing the
Islamic Republic's compliance with the accord, according to three administration
officials. The goal behind the strategy, which Trump is expected to
announce next week, would be to present a unified front from the
administration and Congress to European allies, according to the
officials, who asked not to be identified discussing an issue on
which the president hasn't announced a final decision. The officials
declined to say if Trump would also "decertify" Iran's
compliance with the deal, a decision he has to make every 90 days
under U.S. law.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
President Trump is expected to overrule his top national
security advisers and decline to certify the Iran nuclear agreement,
according to people who have been briefed on the matter, a decision
that would reopen a volatile political debate on Iran but is likely
to leave in place the landmark deal negotiated by the Obama
administration. By declining to certify Iran's compliance, Mr. Trump
would essentially kick it to Congress to decide whether to reimpose
punitive economic sanctions. Even among Republicans, there appears to
be little appetite to do that, at least for now.
US President Donald Trump on Thursday insisted Iran has
not acted in keeping with a deal to curb its nuclear program, days
before he must decide on the future of the accord. "They have
not lived up to the spirit of the agreement," said Trump, as he
huddled with military leaders ahead of perhaps the most consequential
foreign policy decision of his young presidency. "The Iranian
regime supports terrorism and exports violence and chaos across the
Middle East," Trump said in the Cabinet Room. "That is why
we must put an end to Iran's continued aggression and nuclear
ambitions" he said. "You will be hearing about Iran very
shortly."
President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Iran had
not lived up to the spirit of the nuclear deal agreed with world
powers and suggested he would reveal his decision on whether to
certify the agreement soon. "We must not allow Iran ... to
obtain nuclear weapons," Trump said during a meeting with military
leaders at the White House. "The Iranian regime supports
terrorism and exports violence, bloodshed and chaos across the Middle
East. That is why we must put an end to Iran's continued aggression
and nuclear ambitions. They have not lived up to the spirit of their
agreement," he said. Asked about his decision on whether to
certify or decertify the landmark nuclear deal, Trump said:
"You'll be hearing about Iran very shortly."
Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI)
Ali Akbar Salehi says the 2015 nuclear deal reached between Iran and
six world powers is not renegotiable. He made the remarks in Rome,
where he is to address the XXth Edoardo Amaldi Conference -
International Cooperation for Enhancing Nuclear Safety, Security,
Safeguards and Non-Proliferation next week. "We have
emphasized repeatedly that the JCPOA is not renegotiable," he
told the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), referring to
the nuclear agreement that is officially called the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action. "Some [parties] want the JCPOA to
be renegotiated in technical dimensions, but it is not
renegotiable," Salehi emphasized, noting that Russia, China and
EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, had all stressed that
the accord is not renegotiable.
that, at least for now.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said Iran is not living
up to the "spirit" of its nuclear deal with world powers,
an assessment that followed media reports that he intends to
decertify the landmark 2015 accord. Trump made the statement during
an October 5 meeting with military leaders at the White House, 10
days before his deadline to decide whether to certify that Iran is in
compliance with the deal. "We must not allow Iran...to obtain
nuclear weapons," he said.
President Donald Trump is expected to refuse to certify
that Tehran is complying with the 2015 international nuclear
agreement, as part of a broader policy change on Iran to be set out
as early as next week, people familiar with the deliberations said.
That move would place key decisions about the future of the nuclear
deal before Congress, which could move to reinstate sanctions under
an expedited 60-day review process......
According to a Thursday report, Trump plans to decertify
the Iran deal on Oct. 15. That would be a strategic error. It might
become necessary within the next year, but President Trump should not
decertify the Iran nuclear deal just yet. First off, that action
would give the U.S. a very short diplomatic window with which to
reform the deal. Following Trump's decertification, Congress will
spend the next 60 days contemplating new sanctions on Iran. At the
same time, however, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson will have to
persuade the Europeans to support reforms to the deal. And seeing as
the Europeans are happy to keep the deal as is, and that the Russians
and Chinese will be loath to assist the U.S. in any fashion,
Tillerson's task won't be easy.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
After discussing Iran and North Korea with U.S. military
leaders on Thursday, President Donald Trump posed for a photo with
them before dinner and declared the moment "the calm before the
storm." "You guys know what this represents?" Trump
said after journalists gathered in the White House state dining room
to photograph him and first lady Melania Trump with the uniformed
military leaders and their spouses. "Maybe it's the calm before
the storm," he said. What storm? "You'll find out,"
Trump told questioning reporters. Classical music played in the
background and tables were set in the nearby Blue Room for a fancy
meal. The White House did not immediately reply to a request to
clarify Trump's remark. Earlier in the evening, while seated with
the top defense officials in the cabinet room, Trump talked about the
threat from North Korea and preventing Iran from getting a nuclear
weapon.
TERRORISM
The Trump administration on Friday plans to roll out a
new public campaign aimed at cracking down more forcefully on the
armed wing of Hezbollah in Lebanon, part of a broader effort to
counter the militant Shiite group's chief backer, Iran. The new push
will include instituting cash rewards for its "most wanted"
operatives, stepping up U.S. intelligence and law enforcement
efforts, and also aims to enlist allies to do more to undermine the
group's global network, three administration officials told reporters
Thursday.
RUSSIA & IRAN
When Russia unveiled its Orion-E drone at the
International Aviation and Space Salon MAKS-2017, near Moscow this
summer, it bore a "striking resemblance" to an Iranian
"Shahed" unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) already flying.
"Orion and Shahed look very much alike," said Samuel
Bendett, an associate research analyst at the Center for Naval
Analyses' International Affairs Group, speaking Thursday at the
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington,
D.C.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Despite Hezbollah's powerful influence over Lebanon,
much of the country's Shia community looks to the Iraqi holy city of
Najaf for religious guidance and leadership. Although Najaf was never
politically involved in Lebanon the way Iran is, the Shia
institutions that call it home were once the only religious -- and
thereby social -- reference for Lebanese Shia. Over the years,
Hezbollah has used its power to turn many Shia toward Iran's Supreme
Leader for guidance, but Najaf's influence endured. Prominent
Lebanese religious figures such as Muhammad Mahdi Shamseddine,
Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, and Hani Fahs all had strong connections
to Najaf, and their Iraqi-influenced institutions and legacy still
hold considerable sway over Lebanon's Shia scene. The United States
and other outside actors have never fully utilized this Iraqi
connection when looking to help Lebanon and curb Iran's influence
there. Yet new political developments in Iraq could give them a
golden opportunity to do so.
CYBERWARFARE
As America frets over Russians running rampant on
Facebook, other adversaries have been exploiting the social network
as a way into some of the world's biggest businesses. An employee at
Deloitte, one of the Big Four accounting firms, fell victim to a fake
Facebook account in late 2016, Forbes can reveal.
And the attacks, believed to have been perpetrated by Iranian
government spies, occurred around the same time as a separate hack,
recently disclosed by The Guardian, which affected
Deloitte data in Microsoft's Azure cloud-hosting service. The lovely
and disarming "Mia Ash" is a fictional female created by
the highly-active hacker crew known as OilRig, which, as Forbes reported
in July, cybersecurity firm SecureWorks believes is sponsored by the
Iranian regime. In July 2016, Mia's puppeteers targeted a Deloitte
cybersecurity employee, engaging him though the social network in
conversations about his job, Forbes learned from
sources with direct knowledge of the attack.
SYRIA CONFLICT
A senior Iranian parliamentary delegation visited
Damascus and held talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad earlier
today, the Iranian media reported. Alaeddin Boroujerdi, the chairman
of the parliament's national security and foreign policy committee,
described Syria as a key pillar of the so-called "resistance
front" against the United States and congratulated the Syrian
president for the latest territorial gains by the Syrian Army and its
foreign allies.
IRAQ
CRISIS
When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan held
"strategic talks" with his Iranian counterpart Hassan
Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran today, three topics
topped the agenda: Iraq, Syria and trade. The two sides agreed to
assist the Baghdad government in preventing Iraqi Kurdistan from
declaring independence, continue to cooperate closely in Syria to
reduce violence and fight terrorism, and triple the current volume of
trade between the two countries in the near future. Despite concrete
steps by the Iranian and Turkish governments to reconcile their
differences and bolster bilateral relations, however, divergent
interests and a history of distrust will likely continue to hamper
the two Middle Eastern rivals' efforts to transform their
transactional partnership into a strategic alliance.
Turkey, Iran and Iraq will decide together whether to
halt Iraqi Kurdistan's oil exports as regional powers increase the
pressure on the autonomous region after it held an independence
referendum. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's president, said after a
one-day trip to Iran that the three nations would act jointly on
sanctions against the Kurdistan Regional Government. The Kurdish
authorities depend on a pipeline through Turkey to export about
500,000 barrels of oil a day but also ship oil through Iran. Ankara
had been one of the KRG's staunchest allies and has often had
strained relations with Baghdad and Tehran. But concerns that the
referendum threatens to destabilise the region and could embolden
Kurds in neighbouring countries to push for greater autonomy have
caused a thaw in relations as the three countries align to put more
pressure on the KRG.
Just four months after accusing Iran of Persian
"expansionism" in the Middle East, Turkish President Recep
Tayyip Erdogan visited Tehran on Oct. 4 to discuss bilateral
cooperation and an expansion of economic ties with the country's
highest officials. One of the issues that has recently brought Iran
and Turkey closer is the Kurdish independence referendum held Sept.
25 in northern Iraq. The vote poses a challenge to both countries
because of their own Kurdish populations. While in Iran, Erdogan met
with the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country's
highest authority. Speaking about the Iraqi Kurdistan referendum,
Khamenei said, "In confronting this event, Iran and Turkey must
take every possible action, and Iraq's government must take serious
actions on this issue." He called the referendum
"treason" against the region and a future threat with
possible long-term consequences.
Turkey, Iran and Iraq will jointly decide on closing the
flow of oil from northern Iraq, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan was
quoted as saying on Thursday, a retaliatory move after the Kurdish
region voted for independence. Erdogan, who was speaking to Turkish
media including broadcasters NTV and CNN Turk on his return flight
from a one-day trip to Iran, also criticised the inclusion of the
oil-rich city of Kirkuk in the referendum, saying that Kurds had no
legitimacy there. Iran and Turkey have already threatened to join
Baghdad in imposing economic sanctions on Iraqi Kurdistan and have
launched joint military exercises with Iraqi troops on their borders
after northern Iraq's independence referendum last month. Last month,
Russian oil major Rosneft clinched a gas pipeline deal in Iraq's
autonomous Kurdistan to help it become a major exporter of gas to
Turkey and Europe. The pipeline will be constructed in 2019 and
exports will begin in 2020.
GULF STATES & IRAN
Iran must stop meddling in the Middle East, visiting
Saudi King Salman told Russian President Vladimir Putin during their
meeting in the Kremlin on Thursday, Russia's Interfax news agency
reported. "We emphasize that the security and stability of the
Gulf region and the Middle East is an urgent necessity for achieving
stability and security in Yemen," Salman said, quoted by the
agency. "This would demand that Iran give up interference with
the internal affairs of the region, to give up actions destabilizing
the situation in this region."
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