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TOP STORIES
Iran's ballistic missile program must be placed under
international surveillance, French President Emmanuel Macron said, in
an bid to get tougher on Tehran while preserving the nuclear deal
that Donald Trump has threatened to scrap.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Wednesday called
for Iranian-backed militias to withdraw from Syria after meeting with
opposition negotiators from the war-torn nation during a visit to
Jordan.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will be seeking
billions of dollars of Indian investment during a visit to New Delhi,
diplomats said, a trip that comes amid U.S. pressure to review a 2015
international nuclear deal and re-impose sanctions on Iran.
ISRAEL-IRAN-SYRIA CLASH
[Israeli] Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman on Wednesday
hinted Israel has plans to continue attacking Iranian positions
inside Syria, following this weekend's aerial clashes in which the
army says Israeli jets destroyed up to half of Syria's air defenses
and four Iranian sites in the country.
The loss of one Israeli jet should not be exaggerated;
it is not a watershed moment that will alter the strategic balance in
the Middle East... In its far-reaching retaliatory raid on a dozen
Syrian and Iranian targets, Israel sought to make clear there would
be a cost if Assad and his Iranian allies challenged the
"rules" again in the near future. After Israel's
counterstrike, the Iranian-led axis appears to have backed down...
Considering that the Syrian regime is in tatters, Assad is probably
more keen on rebuilding his decimated country than on bearing the
brunt of Israeli attacks launched in response to Iranian
provocations. Hezbollah may be arming itself with advanced weaponry,
but it is not interested in fighting another devastating conflict
with Israel that could spread to Lebanon. Finally, the Iranian
people's protests against their government's economic mismanagement
at home and adventurism abroad indicate that the regime should be
wary of increasing its commitments in Syria.
Israel's air attack on a manned Iranian command and
control unit in Syria last weekend-and the Syrian shoot-down of an
Israeli plane involved in the operation-marked a major escalation in
the conflict between Israel and Iran in Syria. For now, things have quieted,
with both sides seeming to understand the message the other was
conveying. But the prospect for further escalation is higher than
ever, and these kinds of Israeli operations in Syria are likely to
become the new normal.
With the bellicose rhetoric and heightening tensions,
the incident seemed certain to finally draw Israel into an all-out
military confrontation with Syria-one that could spill into Israel
itself and across Jordan and Lebanon. Iran's vaunted axis would
finally have its "total war" against the "Zionist
enemy" and its "master" America and the "Jewish
monarchs" of Saudi Arabia. But war with Israel is the last thing
Iran and Hezbollah want. In reality, Tehran is now threatening to mobilize
its entire array of proxies to get what it wants in Syria and
throughout the region. So far, it seems to be daring the world to
test it.
Saturday's incident raises important questions about the
interpretation of the rules of international law governing the use of
force and the legality of the use of force by Israel and the forces
acting against it.
IRAN PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
A British mother detained in Iran on spying charges is
being subjected to psychological torture from "the whole armoury
of the state", campaigners believe. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe,
who is entering her 683rd day in prison, has been the victim of
"psychological abuse" which meets United Nations criteria
for torture, according to a group calling for her release.
Reporters Without Borders (RSF) reiterated its
condemnation of the Iranian authorities' harassment of journalists,
saying control of news and information has been
"implacable" since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
US Defense Secretary James Mattis told Al Arabiya that
Iran is behind all the regional crises.... Speaking from Brussels on
the sidelines of a meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization,
Mattis [said] that Iran is involved in the crises in Yemen, Syria,
Lebanon, Bahrain and Iraq.
President Trump, although delighted to make a
meaningless show of disapproval by "decertifying" the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action, hasn't made substantial changes in the
U.S. policy toward Iran.
CONGRESS & IRAN
U.S. Senator Bob Casey (D-PA) released a statement
following Iranian Attack: "This weekend, Iran launched a drone
into Israeli airspace from Syria; an F-16 fighter jet was destroyed
and one pilot retained serious injuries. This violation of Israeli sovereignty
exemplifies Iran's growing regional influence, as well as the threat
that its dominance in Syria poses to Israel. The U.S. is failing both
Israeli and American interests by ceding its leadership in Syria to
Iran and Russia, whose national security interests often directly
contradict our own."
HEZBOLLAH & LEBANON
An Iranian-backed terror group claims it will have
nearly half-a-million missiles aimed at Israel within the next year
amid ongoing efforts by the Islamic Republic to transfer advanced
missile technology to regional hotspots such as Lebanon and Syria,
which are located on Israel's borders. Militants tied to Hezbollah,
the Iranian-controlled terror group that operates along Israel's
northern border in Lebanon, claim they have deployed more than 70,000
long-range missiles across Syria and Lebanon in preparation for a
strike on Israel. The number of missiles could grow to nearly
half-a-million within the next year, according to these militant
groups.
A top Iranian general has lashed out at Israel during a
commemoration for a Hezbollah figure killed in a 2008 Damascus car
bombing that the group blamed on Israel. Qassem Soleimani, head of
Iran's Quds Force, pledged retaliation for Imad Mughniyeh,
Hezbollah's ex-military chief who was considered one of the world's
most-wanted terrorists by Israel and the United States.
The leader of an Iraqi militia group with close ties to
Iran traveled to Lebanon this week to voice solidarity with Hezbollah
and pledged to stand with the "axis of resistance" in any
future wars with Israel. Akram al-Kaabi, the head of Harakat
al-Nujaba, made the remarks to reporters in southern Beirut after
visiting the tomb of late Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, who was
allegedly killed by Israel.
The strategy promoted by the Israeli political and
military echelon in the confrontation with Iran and Hezbollah in the
north - the threat "to return Lebanon to the Stone Age" by
massive destruction of civilian infrastructure and causing many
casualties among the Lebanese population - is, in my opinion, dangerous
and ineffective... Israel should deter Iran, if not prevent
altogether war in the north, at least to prevent the nightmare
scenario of thousands of missiles falling on Israeli territory.
RUSSIA & IRAN
...[I]t is hard to imagine a strategy that would remove
Havana's presence from Venezuela without first passing through Moscow
or Beijing. Iran, on the other hand, can operate independently in
Venezuela because it taps into a separate, more robust clandestine
network that has been developing in Latin America for more than half
a century.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Is the prime minister thus headed to the political
desert [due to corruption charges]? It is far too early to know...
Yet one major factor may well weigh in favor of Netanyahu... The
Israeli version of "the urgent trumping the important" is
security trumping everything else. This week, Israel shot down an
Iranian drone that had entered its airspace, which led to an Israeli
bombing raid on Syrian and Iranian installations in Syria in which an
Israeli F-16 was shot down... a low level of dread prevails. In some
of the Israeli press, the day is being called the first battle of an
all but inevitable Israel-Iran war... That may help Netanyahu, for
Israelis want to know who will protect them best.
Union [British] flags were set ablaze during fiery
celebrations of the 39th anniversary of the Iranian celebration in
Tehran.
SYRIA & IRAN
Iran told the U.S. to withdraw its forces from Syria and
cease operations there Wednesday because Washington's presence was
deemed illegal by the local government.
Iraqi Interior Minister Qasim al-Araji announced
yesterday that the country is planning on opening the al-Qaim-Abu
Kamal border crossing between Iraq and Syria, Iranian and Iraqi media
reported. Al-Araji, who is a senior member of Iran-backed Badr
Organization, added that his ministry has obtained permission from
Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi and Chief of Staff of the Iraqi
military, General Othman Al-Ghanimi, to reopen the strategic border
crossing. He also revealed that Hashd al-Shaabi, Iraqi paramilitary
forces also known as the Popular Mobilization Force, will play a role
in maintaining security along the shared border.
In effect, the Iranians have gotten themselves into the
same sort of situation [in Syria] that the United States got itself
into in Vietnam in the 1960s and the Soviets got themselves into in
Afghanistan in the 1980s. The Iranians are caught in a war that is
more costly than they want to bear, but is too important for them to
want to leave... [I]t strikes me that the right American response is
to make sure that [the Iranians] aren't left alone to complete the
pacification of Syria anytime soon - that their foes are armed,
trained, and supplied to allow them to persevere and to keep bleeding
the Iranians and their allies.
Initial indications are that Iran has not yet operated
the land corridor through Iraq to Syria and Lebanon to any
significant extent; this impression has been bolstered by statements
by the US Secretary of Defense. The reason seems to be Iran's fear of
attacks on convoys using the corridor, be they by US forces, the IDF,
or Islamic State and Sunni elements. This fear will apparently
continue in the future.
Animosity toward US Uniting Turkey, Russia,
Iran in Syria | Semeh Idiz for Al-Monitor
The leaders of Turkey, Iran and Russia have agreed in
principle to a summit on Syria to be held in Istanbul... Attempts by
the United States to consolidate its position in territories held by
the YPG in northern Syria... remain the main motive for keeping the
informal, tripartite alliance alive. Regardless of Turkey's
suspicions about long-term Russian and Iranian intentions in Syria,
and vice versa, the three do not want to allow potential strains
among them to work to the United States' advantage, not only in
Syria, but in the region as a whole.
Iran's large-scale intervention in Syria has drawn tens
of thousands of fighters from Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Lebanon who
formed the "Resistance Front" against ISIL. Now that [they]
have helped Iran attain "victory" against ISIL, the
question is what Iran will do with these tens of thousands of
battle-hardened fighters... Initial indications are that Iran is
actually downsizing the contingent of Afghan fighters, sending them
back to Iran where their families - mostly refugees or undocumented
immigrants - have been promised permanent residency. This gives the
fighters' families a secure future, but it also gives the leadership
in Tehran the security of knowing that it can, if needed, draw again
on these veteran fighters who are now indebted to the government.
It's official: Syria has become a war of all against
all.
IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
A group of prominent Iranian intellectuals have said
they have lost hope that the Islamic Republic can reform, and have
called for a referendum to establish whether the ruling establishment
is still backed by a majority.
People in Iran are celebrating Valentine's Day despite
the fact that the holiday has been banned in the Islamic
Republic.
"Tehran Taboo"... lays bare the double
standards that surround sex in Iran. Its confrontational quality is
established in the opening scene: A driver picks up a prostitute who
is turning tricks with her young son in tow - and moments later
expresses horror when he spots a man holding hands with his daughter.
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